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Energy - General (1)
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John O. Marsh Files (Ford Administration)
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The original documents are located in Box 14, folder "Energy - General (1)" of the John Marsh Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald R. Ford donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Digitized from Box 14 of The John Marsh Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library HOUSE DEMOCRATIC Possibles Poss, Bill Nichols Richard F. Vander Veen Tom Bevill Bob Carr* Robert E. Jones Lucien N. Nedzi Walter Flowers John D. Dingell Bill Alexander Bob Bergland Ray Thornton G. V. (Sonny) Montgomery Harold T. Johnson James W. Symington John E. Moss Wm. J. Randall Norman Y. Mineta* Richard Bolling John J. McFall Richard H. Ichord B. F. Sisk Max S. Baucus* John Krebs* John Melcher James C. Corman Jim Santini* Edward R. Roybal Norman E. D'Amours Charles H. Wilson Harold Runnels Glenn M. Anderson Otis G. Pike Mark W. Hannaford* Jerome Ambro, Jr. * Lionel Van Deerlin Matthew F. McHugh* Frank E. Evans Samuel S. Stratton Robert L. F. Sikes Edward W. Pattison* Don Fuqua James M. Hanley Charles E. Bennett John J. LaFalce* Bill Chappell, Jr. Henry J. Nowak* Bo Ginn Walter B. Jones Dawson Mathis David N. Henderson Jack Brinkley Ike F. Andrews John J. Flynt, Jr. Richardson Preyer Dan Rostenkowski Roy A. Taylor Sidney R. Yates Wayne L. Hays Frank Annunzio James R. Jones Melvin Price Theodore M. (Ted) Risenhoover* Floyd J. Fithian* Glenn English* J. Edward Roush Les AuCoin* David Walter Evans* Robert Duncan* Philip H. Hayes* James Weaver* Lee H. Hamilton Robert N. C. Nix Philip R. Sharp* Daniel J. Flood Michael T. Blouin* Fred B. Rooney Tom Harkin* Thomas E. Morgan Berkley Bedell* Mendel J. Davis William H. Natcher Butler Derrick* F. Edward Hebert James R. Mann Lindy (Mrs. Hale) Boggs Kenneth L. Holland* Joe D. Waggonner, Jr. John W. Jenrette, Jr. * John B. Breaux Joe L. Evins Gillis W. Long Richard H. Fulton Clarence D. Long Ed Jones Goodloe E. Byron Charles Wilson *New Member -2- Ray Roberts Olin E. Teague Jim Wright Richard C. White Omar Burleson George H. Mahon Abraham Kazen, Jr. Dale Milford Thomas N. Downing David E. Satterfield III Dan Daniel Don Bonker* Mike McCormack Floyd V. Hicks Robert H. Mollohan Harley O. Staggers John M. Slack Ken Hechler Alvin Baldus* Robert J. Cornell* Robert W. Kasten, Jr.* Teno Roncalio *New Member Oil The Center for Strategic and International Studies THE Georgetown University / 1800 K Street Northwest / Washington DC 20006 / Telephone 202/833-8595 Cable Address: CENSTRAT August 12, 1974 Mr. Jack Marsh File Room 294 Old Executive Office Building Washington, D. C. 20501 Dear Mr. Marsh: I am enclosing a copy of an article carried in last week's "U. S. News and World Report" concerning an interview with David Rockefeller. I think this is one of the best balanced interviews on this subject that I've seen. The last paragraph is particularly fitting--it advocates what amounts to operation "Interdependence." It emphasizes how real the turn of events is on our energy situation, but also that a cooperative approach between all of the nations of the world, both producers and consumers, should enable us to change what appears to be a disastrous situation into one that can be of benefit to all. Also notice page 39, which is a fairly optimistic report from Secretary Simon. For your information, it appears that the Saudi's have just abruptly cancelled the auction that was so glowingly referred to. There are other aspects of this situation that I still think we need to discuss on a person-to-person basis if you can ever shoe-horn a few minutes in. We have now tentatively scheduled a trip for Senators Humphrey, Brock, and Nunn to the Middle East area in mid-November. It looks like they will spend at least four days in Saudia Arabia, two or three in Iran, and possibly have time to make some observations in Yemen, Israel and Egypt. I'll keep you informed how it shapes up. Sincerely yours, Jack Bridges Director, National Energy Programs Enclosure OIL MONEY: A CRISIS AS THE BILLIONS PILE UP? + 3 I LIBRAR Interview With David Rockefeller, Chairman, Chase Manhattan Bank SHIN U.S.POSTAGE AUG13'74 ₹,10 The Center for Strategic and International Studies D.C PB867123 Georgetown University / 1800 K Street Northwest / Washington DC 20006 Mr. Jack Marsh Room 294 Old Executive Office Building Washington, D. C. 20501 The Petrochemical Energy Group Suite 335 1701 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D C. 20006 (202) 337-4012 "Raw Material Needs of the Petrochemical Industry" speaking for The Petrochemical Energy Group E. S. Robson, Jr. Vice President Monsanto Company St. Louis, Mo. Midwest Regional Hearing on Project Independence, Sept. 11, 1974 Federal Energy Administration Kansas City, Mo. LIBRARY Mr. Chairman, my name is Ernest S. Robson, Jr. I am a vice president of Monsanto Company of St. Louis. However, I am here today speaking on behalf of the 23 independent petrochemical 1 companies comprising PEG, The Petrochemical Energy Group. The purpose of my testimony is to describe the unique role of petrochemicals -- and how they are intertwined with Project Independence and alternate possibilities for fuels. The members of PEG produce the majority of the petrochemicals our nation converts into countless end products which support our lives. We are vitally concerned with meeting the basic human needs of food, clothing, shelter and health. For example: 1. Nitrogen fertilizers for corn, wheat and cotton are made from petrochemicals, as are pesticides which save consumers $20 billion a year by fighting weeds, insects and fungus. 2. The vast majority of our clothing is made from petrochemical fibers like nylon and polyester. And there is not enough land left to return to natural fibers, unless we cut food production. -more- 1) PEG companies are listed on Attachment A. --2 3. Home construction costs are held down by the expanding use of plastics in pipe, insulation and modern paints -- all petro- chemical products. 4. The nation's most widely used pharmaceutical, aspirin, is made from petrochemicals -- as are numerous other medicines. Beyond these extremely basic needs, our nation's transportation system is completely dependent on synthetic rubber tires, made from petrochemicals. In communications, our telephone and television systemscould not operate without plastic insulation. One indication of the importance of petrochemicals to our economy is a recent survey on material shortages undertaken 2) by the U.S. Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. It concludes, "By far the most universal shortage is in petrochemicals." Another survey has shown that a 15 per cent decline in petrochemical production would result in a loss of 3) 1.6 to 1.8 million jobs in our economy. -more- 2) Refer to Attachment B, p. 23 of Committee Print on shortages. 3) See Attachment C, summary from Arthur D. Little, Inc. --3 Today the U.S. petrochemical industry employs nearly 300,000 people in 1,900 plants. The industry, with sales in excess of $20 billion annually, is one of the largest contributors to a favorable U.S. balance of trade. 4) As another measure of size, consider that petrochemical product manufacturing is significantly larger than the manufacturing of petroleum products for fuel. The petrochemical industry has almost three times the employment, over double the value added in products, and nearly 50 per cent more capital investment than does petroleum 5) fuel refining. And yet petrochemicals consume only 6 per cent of our nation's oil and gas. Now that's a real return on the investment of a scarce natural resource! I am not here today just because Kansas City happens to be close to St. Louis. I am here because the petrochemical industry is vitally concerned with the new government policies to be encompassed by Project Independence. We are totally and utterly dependent on the crude oil and natural gas involved in your considerations. -more- 4) Attachment D, U.S. Department of Commerce report. 5) 1972 Census of Manufactures, Attachment E. --4 The members of PEG strongly support the fundamental objective of Project Independence to increase energy self- sufficiency and reduce vulnerability to embargoes on foreign supplies. However, it is vital that we recognize two points -- 1) petrochemicals are basic to our entire economy and 2) the petrochemical industry must compete on a global basis. Let me expand on that last point. The economics of fuels are generally restricted to a national market. But the absence of significant trade barriers makes chemicals an international market. Seven of the top 10 chemical companies in 6) the world are not U.S. companies --- they are headquartered overseas. And we are losing ground in petrochemicals. Today the U.S. has bout 40 per cent of the world's petrochemical capacity. But this year, only 11 per cent of the new petrochemical plants 7) are being built in the United States. Why? Because developing nations have recognized the contributions petrochemicals can make to their standard of living. Whereas U.S. investment in petrochemicals 8) peaked in 1966-67, due in part to uncertain national policies, such expansions have taken a preferred position elsewhere. This year 58 per cent of the new petrochemical plants are being built in developing countries. -more- 6) List of companies from Chemical & Engineering News, Attachment F. 7) Attachment G, Oil & Gas Journal report. 8) Annual Survey of Manufacturers, Attachment H. LIBRARY --5 Without proper consideration of petrochemical needs, Project Independence could mean "dependence" in an even greater form. Today we are concerned about importing crude oil costing us about four cents a pound. Unless the U.S. petrochemical industry stays competitive, tomorrow we will be importing rubber, plastics, fibers, pesticides and medicines worth 30 cents to $1 a pound. What will that do to our independence and balance of payments? The inherent goals of Project Independence also place new and key responsibilities on petrochemicals. For example, energy conservation means an increased demand for home insulation bound together by plastics -- or light weight plastic automobile parts and radial tires to increase gasoline mileage. Reduced energy consumption in drying or ironing our clothing calls for more man-made fibers. An expansion in coal production will require ammonium nitrate for explosives manufacturing. And more use of electrical energy means a higher level of plastic insulation. To meet all these needs, petrochemicals are going to need an increasing share of the nation's oil and gas over the next 10 to 20 years. We are uniquely dependent upon these resources for our raw materials. There are no feasible alternatives during the lifespan of Project Independence. -more- --6 So what are the answers? Can enough oil and gas be reserved for petrochemicals? Let's take a look at the nation's demand. There are three primary markets for the hydrocarbons found in petroleum -- basic fuels, transportation and petrochemicals. Fuels take 62 per cent of our petroleum, transportation demands 32 per cent -- and petrochemicals need 6 per cent. In basic power generation, such as the production of steam and electricity, the main requirement is the amount of BTUs or heat in the combustion material. BTUs in natural gas are equivalent to BTUs in coal, nuclear energy or solar energy. The unique structure of the molecule is of no value. There is an alternative for power via coal and nuclear energy -- given a reasonable time to solve environmental problems and a significant amount of capital investment. Basic fuel markets are the most flexible for switching to alternate sources of energy. And that's a solution for 62 per cent of our energy consumption. Transportation markets need a fuel which has a rapid and controlled release of energy. In internal combustion engines, the critical fuel requirements are the ability to convert into a vapor, rapid burning and ease of transportation. Many kinds of products fill this bill. Excellent fuels can be made today from liquids as diverse as methanol to propane. With a limited number -more- FURD to LIBRARY --7 of critical requirements, it is entirely feasible to manufacture motor fuels from coal or oil shale. It will take work. It may not be gasoline. But it is a viable, practical alternate. After all, Germany ran its cars on fuels from coal 30 years ago. And again, this is an answer for a major energy consumer -- now 32 per cent of our petroleum demand. The story for petrochemicals is different. If the required molecules are not present in nature's material, or if the technology for change does not exist, the petrochemical product can not be made. All petrochemicals have a specific chemical structure with purities in the 99.8 per cent range. For example, butadiene -- a key ingredient in synthetic rubber -- is now made commercially only from straight-chain carbon molecules which exist only in petroleum. Each of the three markets I have mentioned are in different stages of technology. The ability to create power from coal or nuclear energy exists now. The ability to make motor fuels from other sources is practiced in several countries -- and has possible application here. The ability to make petrochemicals from coal applies now only to a few products like ammonia and methanol, There is active research in this area, but we can not hope for relief in the near future. It will be close to the year 2000 before we know how to make significant amounts of petrochemicals from other resources. -more- --8 A final point before my conclusion. You will remember I mentioned that PEG companies are independent petrochemical producers. By this I mean they are predominately purchasers of oil and gas -- and are dependent upon petroleum refiners for their supplies. These same integrated refiners are also our competitors in the petrochemical field. The distinction between these two classes of petrochemical suppliers must always be remembered as government policies, details and procedures are finalized. When the nation's attention became focused on energy last fall, due to the embargo on Mideast oil, the bulk of our concern naturally turned first to heating, power and transportation. It was some months later before we recognized that petroleum was also a raw material for man-made products vital to every part of the economy. We must remember the following points in our work on Project Independence: 1. The police car or ambulance which has gaoline can not run without tires. Generated electricity is worthless without wire insulation. Food supplies will wither without the nutrition and protection of agricultural chemicals. 2. The petrochemical industry is not protected by high or absolute trade barriers. It must compete worldwide. -more- --9 3. Coal and nuclear energy are practical, available alternates now for the generation of power. 4. Motor fuels can be made in a number of different forms. 5. Petrochemicals are completely dependent upon petroleum raw materials for the next 15 to 25 years. I think we might take a bit of advice from the Shah of Iran who was reported to have said he did not want to waste his nation's oil reserves in selling fuels to the world -- but would rather market them as petrochemicals. He evidently knows the best and highest priority for shrinking petroleum resources. I suggest the United States have the same wisdom as we chart our future. Project Independence represents a real opportunity for this nation to set priorities in the use of our natural resources. Thank you. -o0o- ATTACHMENT A THE PETROCHEMICAL ENERGY GROUP Borg-Warner Chemicals Celanese Corporation Chemplex Company Dart Industries, Inc. The Dow Chemical Company E. I. duPont de Nemours & Co., Inc. Ethyl Corporation Firestone Tire & Rubber Company Foster Grant Company, Inc. The B. F. Goodrich Company Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company Hercules Incorporated Monsanto Company National Distillers & Chemical Corporation Nipro, Inc. Olin Corporation Oxirane Corporation Petro-Tex Chemical Company PPG Industries, Inc. Publicker Industries, Inc. Rohm and Haas Company Texas Eastman Company, Div. of Eastman Kodak Company Union Carbide Corporation 23 D3d Congress 2d Session } PETROCHEMICALS COMMITTEE PRINT By far the most universal shortage was in petrochemicals, with 181 companies reporting shortages. Essentially all hydrocarbon-based chemicals are in short supply because of the limited availability of petroleum feedstocks, The products made from petrochemicals include compounds which are necessary components of lubricating and indus- trial process oils, greases, waxes, and some fuels. Detergents, disper- sants, viscosity improvers, anti-oxidants, emulsifiers, pigments, de- MATERIALS SHORTAGES foamers, and friction modifiers are also largely based on petrochemi- cals. Some of the petrochemicals that were mentioned in the survey as being difficult to obtain are the following: phenolic resins neetone ethanol isopropane styrene vinyl acetate INDUSTRY PERCEPTIONS OF SHORTAGES acrylates ethyl acetute phenol solvents xylene methyl ethyl ketone glycerine tolueno acetic acid benzene PERMANENT SUBCOMMITTEE ON methanol glacial acrylic acid polyvinyl chloride neoprene latex INVESTIGATIONS cellophane ercosol polyester film polymeric resins OF THE polyethylene resin pitch COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS nylon resin glycols polyethylene film ammonia UNITED STATES SENATE aldehydes ethyl alcohol polypropylene isopropyl alcohol adhesives oil alkyd resins emulsifiers epoxy resins Many manufacturers are reportedly allocating sales of their prod- ucts. Resins are especially hard to get and are being allocated on the basis of purchases during a previous period. Part of the shortage of some resins is due to the shift by producers of feedstocks to the most profitable products, leaving the others in very short supply. Price controls were felt by many of the respondents to be respon- sible for aggravating the shortage of some petrochemicals, Price con- trols were also blamed for suppression of chemical prices far below AUGUST 1974 export value, which resulted in the exportation of badly needed ma- rerials. Many producers, caught in the price squeeze, cancelled ex- pansion plans, which further tightened the supply situation. Several of those replying expressed concern over a possible reimposition of price controls in the future. Another problem affecting the industry is the uncertainty created by environmental regulations which might be changed or imposed Printed for the use of the Committee on Government Operations after new plants are completed. Environmental laws can also affect the demand for the product as well as the facilities where it is pro- ATTACHMENT U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE duced. The requirement that 1975 automobiles be able to operate elli- ciently on lead-free gas has generated a search for replacements for 35-776 WASHINGTON I 1974 lead compounds in gasoline, such as benzene, toluene, and xylene. These B For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 2012 Price 55 cents ATTACHMENT C SUMMARY U.S. PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY IMPACT ANALYSIS The current shortages of oil and gas in the United States have forced the Federal Government to implement a Mandatory Fuel Allocation Program, a Mandatory Allocation Program for Propane, and to supervise an expanding level of curtailments in natural gas supplies to interstate pipelines. These shortages will have a significant impact on the whole economy and the petrochemical industry as a major consumer of oil and gas hydrocarbons will be directly affected. However, the impact on this industry and its customers will be significantly greater than on other industries because these hydrocarbons are used not only as fuel but also as the primary raw materials or feedstocks for this business. As a result of the current shortages, it is not unrealistic to expect that petrochemical production will decline in the near future. To assess the impact of a decline in petrochemical production on the nation's economy as a whole, the Petrochemical Energy Group (PEG) asked Arthur D. Little, Inc. (ADL) to develop an estimate of the effect of a 15% decline in the organic chemicals industry on consuming industries. Through the use of input-output economic analysis, ADL estimates that a sustained 15% reduction in the output of the organic chemicals industry could result in a loss of 1.6 to 1.8 million jobs in consuming industries and a loss of domestic production value of $65-70 billion annually. While our analysis assumes a decline in production of 15%, it is difficult at this time to anticipate just how extensive a decline will actually result from the current allocation and curtailment programs. Should these programs not provide for the feedstock and process fuel needs of the petrochemical industry, its output will be reduced with the effects cascading throughout the economy. Note: The full text of this report can be obtained from the Petrochemical Energy Group, Suite 335, 1701 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Arthur DLittleInc U.S. BALANCE OF TRADE IN PETROCHEMICALS (millions of dollars) Trade Claim 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1. Dyes, Organic Pigments Exports 33.0 31.4 34.7 31.7 35.1 32.7 43.0 44.6 53.2 85.8 531 Imports 21.1 26.8 35.4 35.0 49.9 63.4 69.7 97.2 100.8 103.6 11.9 4.6 -0.7 -3.3 -14.8 -30.7 -26.7 -52.6 -47.6 -17.8 2. Plastics (except cellulosics) Exports 349.8 377.2 422.6 423.0 530.9 533.8 593.0 593.3 628.9 944.3 581 Imports - 36.5 53.6 54.9 87.2 91.5 115.0 126.2 168.7 197.7 349.8 340.7 339.0 368.1 443.7 442.3 478.0 467.1 460.2 746.6 3. Synthetic Rubber Exports 179.0 163.1 175.1 170.0 180.3 139.6 176.0 172.7 161.0 195.3 231.2 Imports 14.5 19.0 23.6 20.7 29.3 37.6 42.2 56.3 53.6 64.3 164.5 144.1 151.5 149.3 151.0 102.0 133.8 116.4 107.4 131.5 4. Detergents & Surface Exports 36.0 47.2 50.9 53.7 64.7 62.9 69.3 71.9 76.8 95.8 Active Agents 554.2 Imports - 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 7.0 7.2 8.4 9.2 12.7 36.0 44.7 47.4 49.2 59.2 55.9 62.1 63.5 67.6 83.1 5. Carbon Black Exports 32.0 26.7 28.8 25.1 15.4 12.6 14.0 14.9 10.4 17.1 513.27 Imports 0.2 - 1.2 - 0.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.9 31.8 26.7 27.6 25.1 15.2 11.2 12.9 13.5 8.8 14.2 6. Aromatics & Offins Exports 33.0 40.5 26.2 28.3 66.8 62.1 49.2 32.5 30.7 72.2 521 Imports - 1.2 - 1.1 - I - - - I 33.0 39.3 26.2 27.2 65.8 62.1 49.2 32.5 30.7 72.2 7. Synthetic Fibers Exports 156.1 129.7 133.3 123.7 136.8 155.0 175.4 186.5 191.6 343.5 Imports 20.4 46.7 54.7 56.6 98.8 85.5 201.3 340.1 297.9 247.9 135.7 83.0 78.6 67.1 38.0 69.5 -25.9 -153.6 -106.3 95.6 8. Organic Chemicals Exports 865.5 759.0 802.7 864.8 992.3 1016.4 1183.2 1143.0 1219.5 1683.7 512.599 Imports 110.7 144.4 189.0 184.6 221.6 263.3 298.7 345.3 432.5 549.6 754.8 614.6 613.7 660.2 770.7 753.1 884.5 797.7 787.0 1134.1 Exports 10.1 14.0 16.2 22.6 26.5 33.0 30.2 16.3 21.9 41.2 9. Ammonia Imports 6.9 9.5 15.3 19.1 18.6 20.7 20.7 20.5 17.0 15.5 3.2 4.5 is 3.5 7.9 12.3 9.5 -4.2 4.9 25.7 Grand Total Exports 1694.5 1588.8 1690.5 1742.9 2048.8 2048.1 2333.3 2275.7 2394.0 3479.4 Imports 173.8 286.6 376.3 376.5 511.1 570.4 755.9 995.4 1081.3 1194.2 1520.7 1302.2 1314.2 1366.4 1537.7 1477.7 1577.4 1280.3 1312.7 2285.2 ATTACHMENT Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census FT110, FT135 U.S. Imports, and FT410 U.S. Exports. a ATTACHMENT E THE U.S. PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY (1972) Value Capital Employment Added Investment (000) ($ MM) ($ MM) 2869 Organic Chemicals 100 4,922 565 2865 Cyclic Intermediates 28 914 152 2821 Plastics and Resins 55 2,192 279 2822 Synthetic Rubber 12 487 34 2824 Synthetic Fibers 78 2,084 369 2843 Surface Active Agents 7 204 21 28411 Detergents 5 376 11 2895 Carbon Black 3 138 12 Ammonia 5 323 20 Total Petrochemical 293 11,640 1,463 By Comparison: 2911 Petroleum Refining 101 4,627 1,067 Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, 1972 Census of Manufactures, and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. ATTACHMENT F MAJOR INTERNATIONAL CHEMICAL COMPANY SALES - 1973 Company Total Sales ($ billion) BASF 5.9 Hoechst 5.7 Bayer 5.4 Du Pont 5.3 ICI 5.2 Montedison 4.3 UCC 3.9 Pechiney-Ugine Kuhlmann 3.6 AKZO 3.6 Dow 3.1 Sources: C&EN, June 3, 1974, page 30; March 18, 1974, page 10; and August 12, 1974, page 13; Chemical Week, June 26, 1974, page 34. ATTACHMENT G NEW INVESTMENT IN THE PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY NUMBER OF ACTIVE NEW PLANT CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS 1971 1974 Number % Number % United States 41 8.5 76 10.8 Western Europe 204 42.2 164 23.4 Japan 56 11.6 50 7.1 Developing Countries 183 37.7 413 58.7 Total 484 100.0 703 100.0 Source: Oil & Gas Journal, March 11, 1974, page 80. PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT IN THE U. S. - II (millions of dollars) Surface Total Investment Cyclic Organic Synthetic Synthetic Active Carbon Current Plant Cost 1) Constant Intermediates Chemicals Plastics Rubber Fibers Agents Black Dollars Factor Dollars (2815) (2818) (2821) (2822) (2824) (2843) (2895) 1960 98.9 297.7 155.0 48.2 48.1 1.9 10.3 660.1 102.0 647.2 1961 69.6 380.6 157.3 59.5 117.6 12.3 10.2 807.1 101.5 795.2 1962 80.3 267.9 149.5 41.9 118.4 10.5 9.6 678.1 102.0 664.8 1963 106.8 401.0 137.8 32.3 170.3 7.2 4.0 859.4 102.4 839.3 1964 103.5 496.4 209.5 23.3 163.6 5.8 8.0 1010.1 103.3 977.8 1965 91.9 641.2 219.8 35.1 363.0 7.2 10.1 1368.3 104.2 1313.1 1966 88.4 886.2 300.0 41.9 384.7 9.1 13.3 1723.6 107.2 1607.8 1967 136.1 781.2 310.1 75.2 309.7 8.0 23.4 1643.7 109.7 1498.4 1968 99.3 884.8 270.3 78.1 244.7 9.1 27.0 1613.3 113.6 1420.2 1969 140.4 711.7 295.9 79.8 246.4 8.3 15.8 1498.3 119.0 1259.1 1970 289.2 716.6 307.4 49.3 310.3 14.0 11.9 1698.7 125.7 1351.4 1971 279.6 659.4 315.0 49.0 351.6 19.8 17.8 1692.2 132.3 1279.1 1972 151.8 565.2 278.7 34.2 368.9 21.3 11.9 1432.0 137.2 1043.7 1) Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index 1957-59 - 100 Source: Annual Survey of Manufacturers, U. S. Department of Commerce. ATTACHMENT H October 30, 1974 ECONOMIC INITIATIVES AND FOLLOW-UP Fle DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Energy LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Removal of restrictions on Rice A bill is now pending before Efforts will be made to clear the House Rules Committee. An the bill for floor action after earlier attempt to obtain a rule the House reconvenes on on the bill ended in a tie vote. November 18. Peanuts House Agriculture Committee has USDA will start discussions unacceptably modified Administra- with industry representatives tion proposal. in late November leading to the development of a target price program. A legislative proposal will be submitted to OMB by late December or early January for consideration by the next Congress. Extra-long staple cotton Target price bills have been Strong push needed next year. introduced in both the House and Senate. There appears to be only a small possibility of favorable action in this session. Amendment of P.L. 480 Agriculture has prepared draft Legislation to be submitted legislation. to OMB on November 1. ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Voluntary monitoring of Systems for the prior approval The Department will expand its exports and daily reporting of U.S. weekly report to include export sales of certain agri- information on shipments and cultural commodities are events of major significance completely operational. to the grain trade. - 2 - DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (cont'd) ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Review marketing orders A Marketing Order Task Force will Marketing Order Task Force to review and evaluate the process report by January 1, 1975. by which changes are effected in Market Order and Agreement regu- lations. Review other Department One or more other task forces Regulations must be established to review the need for changes in regulations pertaining to cooperatives, packers and stockyards, food imports, timber exports and others. These task forces are scheduled to report between January 1 and July 1, 1975. Fertilizer Reporting System The reporting system was The reporting system can be terminated when supply problems reactivated immediately, eased after the 1974 crops were whenever the situation warrants. fertilized. The assessment of the need for an allocation system will be completed January 15, 1975. Voluntary effort with Efforts to have companies cut companies back on nonessential uses of fertilizer are scheduled for completion on December 1, 1974. 3 I I DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for implementation Industry conservation audits During October meetings were held During November meetings will be with six major energy-consuming held with four additional industries, resulting in a com- industries to undertake the same mitment to develop through their program outlined under Current trade associations industry-wide Status. The total of those ten plant-by-plant energy conserva- industries represents 75 percent tion reporting system to be of industry and business energy effective January 1, 1975. consumption. On November 14 a meeting will be held with trade association executive secretaries to install the system beyond the ten key industries. January 1, 1975 industry conservation audits in place and operating. AMOUNT 4 - DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVE Current Status Schedule for Implementation Conventional mortgages Signed into law October 18, 1974. Implemented on October 22. eligible for purchase by GNMA. ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Determination of level of The conventional home mortgage Both programs would end commitments under the plan announced an initial FNMA November 30, 1974, and future Conventional Home program of $1.5 billion. A programs will depend upon a Mortgage program second FHLMC program of $1.5 review of mortgage market billion is contemplated. conditions, the anticipated mortgage interest rate and other factors. Joint effort with Congress HUD is in the process of solic- By November 10 Treasury and HUD to develop solutions to iting the views of the major will complete a summary of views mortgage credit problem interest groups. of major interest groups. November 26 - December 6--HUD will prepare a major options paper for the EPB covering issues discussed, stressing areas where there is reasonable chance for compromise and general acceptance. Mid-December-- after review and revision of options paper, President will be asked to meet with key industry officials and Members of Congress to discuss most viable options and seek their support for compromise package. Late January--outline of new reform package announced in State of Union message. February--new legislation sent to the Hill. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Deepwater port facilities House and Senate have passed Review House and Senate bills different bills. Conference and develop position for expected after recess. conference by November 18. Surface mining Legislation delayed in conference Continue to work with conferees until after recess. Interior (due to meet November 19) to Domestic Council and OMB are obtain passage this Congress re-examining bill. of an acceptable bill. ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Arctic Gas Interior is issuing research Feasibility study of alternative proposal for study of alternative routes, and environmental im- gas line routes from Alaska. pact statements, will be Interior with FPC is preparing completed by April 15, 1975. Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for El Paso and Arctic Gas Line applications. Coal leasing Interior is developing coal Final environmental impact state- leasing program and preparing ment will be completed by programmatic EIS. December 15. OME expected to review proposed program by December 15. NPR #1 and #4 Interior, Defense and Navy Study and recommendations to be studying means to expedite completed by January 8, including development. recommendations for legislation if necessary. - 6 - DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (cont'd) ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation OCS leasing Lease 10 million acres in Secretary to meet with coastal calendar year 1975. state governors November 14. Tentative leasing schedule ready by November 15. Oil shale and Geothermal Reevaluation and report to see Reevaluation to be complete by leasing if more rapid development of these January 8. resources is appropriate, is being prepared for the President. DRAM - 7 - DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Increased penalties for S. 782 has passed the Senate in- The Committee should be re- antitrust violations creasing penalties for corpora- quested to recommit HR 9203 to tions to $500,000 but keeping the full Committee to increase individual penalties at $50,000. the penalty for corporations HR 9203, increasing the penalty to $1 million. to $500,000 for corporations and $100,000 for individuals, has been reported by the House Judiciary Committee but the report has not been filed. Strengthen investigation Administration's proposal was Justice will continue to push powers of Antitrust forwarded to Congress in April for action. Division 1974 and introduced in the House and referred to the House Judiciary Committee. The pro- posal has not been introduced in the Senate. 127887 8 - DEPARTMENT OF LABOR LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Special unemployment Both proposals contained in Develop draft regulations for insurance assistance National Employment Assistance the Special Unemployment program Act of 1974, HR 17218, referred Assistance Program on to House Select Committee on November 22. Develop draft Community improvement Labor; S. 4129 referred to the regulations for the Community program Committee on Labor and Public Improvement Program on Welfare, then to the Committee on December 13. Submit request Public Works for 10 days. On for appropriations as soon as October 9 Secretary Brennan the NEAA is enacted. appeared before an extraordinary joint session of two subcommit- tees. The Senate Subcommittee on Employment, Poverty and Migratory Labor held hearings on S. 4129 and other bills on October 16 and 17 at which time public witnesses were heard. General hearings held in House. 9 DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Surface Transportation Act House Committee has reported bill. Need vigorous all-out effort DOT working with Senate Commerce to secure enactment of legis- Committee to obtain speedy lation this year. The President Senate action. should endorse the legislation as an anti-inflationary measure soon after the end of the election recess. ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Automobile fuel economy Meeting with auto presidents held Meet with individual auto October 29 to get 40% mileage manufacturers by November 12 improvement program underway. to discuss achievement of goals. By November 29 a firm plan to achieve the 40% target will be submitted to the President. 55 MPH limit and traffic Work with state officials to Make tentative recommendations control measures strengthen enforcement of 55 MPH on using Federal incentives for limit and suggest improved enforcing 55 MPH limit by De- traffic control measures for cember 15: final recommendations conserving gasoline. Have recom- by January 15. Begin to work mended legislation to make the with Advertising Council, State 55 MPH limit permanent. governments and law enforcement Jointly reviewing the EPA, trans- officials to induce voluntary portation control plans under the compliance. By December 15 will Clean Air Act. develop recommendations to encourage more attention by state, metropolitan and local officials to traffic control measures and a plan to monitor progress and evaluate effective- ness in planning, implementation and operation of traffic management measures. - 10 DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Financial Institutions Act Pending in House and Senate Senate Finance Committee will Banking Committees. continue to work on bill during lame-duck session. House Banking Committee will be urged early next year to launch hearings and serious considera- tion of the bill. Elimination of withholding Included as part of Title III of Treasury will continue to en- tax on interest and divi- Tax Reform Bill of 1974 before courage Ways and Means to report dend income to foreigners. the Ways and Means Committee. bill during lame-duck session. Senate Finance Committee con- sideration is out of the question until next year. Increase Federal insurance Signed by the President on To be implemented by affected on private deposits. October 28. agencies. Increase and restructuring Legislation being prepared by Treasury will push for immediate of investment tax credit. Treasury for submission to the consideration of this proposal Congress upon its return. as part of or separate from the Tax Reform Bill. Preferred stock dividends. Legislation being prepared by Treasury will push for immediate Treasury for submission to the consideration of this proposal Congress upon its return. as part of or separate from the Tax Reform Bill. - 11 - DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (cont'd) LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Ways and Means bill includ- Included as part of Title III of Treasury will continue to en- ing windfall profits tax Tax Reform Bill of 1974 before courage Ways and Means to report on oil and relief for low- the Ways and Means Committee. bill during lame-duck session. income families. Senate Finance Committee con- sideration is out of the question until next year. Surtax Legislation being prepared by Treasury will push for immediate Treasury for submission to the consideration of this proposal Congress upon its return. as part of or separate from the Tax Reform Bill. ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Request state and federal National conference of state regu- Initiatives and issues for- regulatory authorities to latory commissions held September warded to ERC for consideration eliminate rate schedules 13. Resulted in better climate and assignment of lead res- which encourage excessive for cooperation. Further ponsibility on October 30. energy consumption. initiatives suggested for con- sideration. GRD ADDRESS 12 - EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation ERDA and the Nuclear President signed into law Activation of ERDA and NRC Regulatory Commission October 11. on January 1, 1975. Amending the Employment Act Legislation introduced: IIR 15420 Decision to accept or reject of 1946 June 17; HR 17124 October 7. language in HR 16124 or submit Some question exists as to whether new legislation to be made by HR 17124 encompasses the pro- November 1. Congressional posed addition, " for all those testimony scheduled December 2, able, willing and seeking to 1974. work " as recommended in the Fact Sheet. Establishing a National Administration bill forwarded to Prepare and clear testimony be- Commission on Regulatory Congress October 8, and intro- fore Senate Committee Novem- Reform duced October 16 (S. 4145, HR ber 21. Urge hearing in House. 17417). Referred to Government Prepare preliminary specs for Operations Committee in the Commission members and Executive Senate and the Interstate and Director November 30. Finalize Foreign Commerce Committee in specs and begin recruitment the House. December 26. (Assuming enactment) ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Require all major legis- Submitted draft Executive Order President signs Executive Order lation, rules and regula- (authorizing OMB to establish a November 1. OMB completes internal tions developed in the circular) to the White House review of proposed circular Executive Branch to October 30. November 4. Draft OMB circular include an Inflation sent to agencies for comment Impact Statement. November 4. Due date for comments from agencies November 13. Re- vised OMB circular completed (and sent to agencies for final com- ment--optional) November 18. Circular procedures take effect (all legislation, rules and - 13 - OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET (cont'd) ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation regulations submitted or printed for comment after November 30, 1974 will be required to conform to circular procedures) November 30. Designate responsibility within Executive Branch for follow-up procedures December 10. $300 billion spending Agency suggestions submitted to White House decisions reached target: determination of OMB on October 7. Staff review and communicated to OMB and budget rescissions and within OMB October 8-15. Policy agencies November 7. Draft deferrals to meet review within OMB October 16-23. legislation, rescission and de- target. Compilation of proposed reduc- ferral reports and other re- tions October 23. Initial dis- duction proposals, prepared; cussion of proposed reductions reduction and "before" and with White House staff October 24. "after" budgets analyzed; section Initial discussion of proposed on budget reduction drafted for reductions with the President Presidential economic message October 25. November 24. Final package sent to President November 21. Proposed reductions announced generally in Presidential economic message and transmitted in detail in separate report to the Congress week of November 25. FLORD FLORARY 14 I I COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVE Current Status Schedule for Implementation Trade Reform Act Passed House; pending in Senate Maintain current momentum; Finance Committee and scheduled should pass this year. as first order of committee business when Congress returns November 18. COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVE Monitoring wage and price A limited number of reviews have On October 31--November 1, the movements in private been undertaken in areas where Council and the Department of sector there is great public concern over Agriculture will jointly sponsor rising prices, to determine if any a public conference on produc- practical solutions can be found. tivity, costs, and prices in the food industry. On November 13 the Council will sponsor jointly with Mrs. Knauer's office a public hearing on the repricing of shelf inventories in supermarkets. Monitoring government A letter is being drafted to all By November 30, Council will actions major agencies in Executive have a list of existing Federal Branch requesting (1) designa- programs to review. Inflation tion of person as point contact, impact statements on new and (2) identification of their legislative proposals introduced programs, policies or activities by Members of Congress. which may have an adverse effect on costs and prices. Identified motor carrier back- By November 30, report due on haul and circuitry restrictions, targeted Federal restrictive Jones Act Exemptions and Tariff practices. Commission Rulings as possible Federal restrictive practices. 15 I I OTHER AGENCIES ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Nuclear plant licensing JCAE hearings have been held on Encourage Joint Committee to Administration bill, but no bill report the bill out for action has been reported. this Congress. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Amendments to Clean Air Some of desired amendments were Interagency meeting scheduled Act included in PL 93-319 (Energy for November 13 to develop Supply and Environmental Coordina- additional technical justifica- tion Act). Hearings on remaining tion for the Administration's amendments have not been amendments. scheduled. FEDERAL ENERGY ADMINISTRATION LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Natural gas deregulation Administration bill (S. 2048) Determine position by December 1 bogged down. Working with Senate for dealing with Buckley amendment Finance, Interior, and Commerce in Senate to House-passed trade Committees to achieve deregulation bill which achieves unqualified objective. deregulation of field prices of new natural gas. ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Conservation within Presidential directive to agencies Presently reviewing FY 75 first Government on 1975 energy conservation ob- quarter data. Results will be jectives issues. Monitoring published by December 1. system established. 96 I I FEDERAL ENERGY ADMINISTRATION (cont'd) ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES Current Status Schedule for Implementation Incentives to secondary Adjustments of current price con- Review of draft report to be and tertiary petroleum trols to increase incentives to completed by November 8. production use secondary and tertiary tech- Proposed rulemaking targeted niques. Draft report completed. for November 15. Final regulations targeted for January 15. Utility coal conversion Task force established and First draft due November 25. program operating. Report and schedule will be completed by January 8, including any legislative recommendations. Voluntary conservation of Reporting system has been First report due December 1. 1 million bbls/day developed. Monthly reports thereafter. WIN Program Organization and preliminary November 28-July 4, 1976 implementation October 12-- November 28. ENERGY INITIATIVES Kle [Nov Follow-up on Presidential Address on the Economy Energy INITIATIVE CURRENT STATUS NEXT STEPS INTERIOR OCS leasing Lease 10 million acres in Secretary to meet with coastal years 1975. Develop state governors November 14. capability to continue Tentative leasing schedule leasing at this rate should ready by November 15. a decision be made to do so. Coal leasing Interior is developing coal Final environmental impact leasing program and preparing statement will be completed programmatic EIS. by December 15. OMB to review proposed program in Nov/Dec. Arctic Gas Interior is initiating study Feasibility study of alterna- of alternative gas line routes tive routes, and environmental from Alaska. Interior with impact statements, will be FPC is preparing EIS for completed by April 15, 1975. E1 Paso and Arctic Gas gas line applications. Oil, shale and geothermal Reevaluation and report to see valuation to be completed leasing if more rapid development of by January 8. these resources is appropriate is being prepared for the President. Surface mining bill Legislation delayed in Continue to work with conferees conference until after recess. (due to meet Nov. 19) to obtain Interior, Domestic Council passage this Congress of an and OMB are re-examining bill. acceptable bill. 2 INITIATIVE CURRENT STATUS NEXT STEPS INTERIOR (CONT'D) NPR #1 and # 4 Interior, Defense and Navy Study and recommendations to studying means to expedite be completed by January 8, mil-Dec mil development. including recommendations for legislation if necessary. Deepwater ports facilities House and Senate have passed Review House and Senate bills bill different bills. Conference and develop position for expected after recess. conference by November 18. DOT 55 MPH limit and traffic Legislation to make the 55 Make specific recommendations control measures MPH limit permanent has on using Federal incentives passed Senate as part of for enforcing 55 MPH limit by comprehensive highway aid January 15. Develop recommend- bill. Joint review with ations to state and local EPA of transportation officials on traffic control control plans under the measures and management and plan Clean Air Act is in progress. to monitor by Jan. 31. Automobile fuel economy Meeting with auto presidents Meet with individual auto held October 29 to get 40% manufacturers by November 12 mileage improvement program to discuss achievement of underway. goals. By November 29, a firm plan to achieve the 40% target will be submitted to the President. 3 INITIATIVE CURRENT STATUS NEXT STEPS FEA Natural gas deregulation Administration bill (S. 2048) Determine position for dealing bogged down. Working with with Buckley amendment to trade Senate Finance, Interior and bill in the Senate (has already Commerce Committees to achieve passed House), which achieves deregulation objective. unqualified deregulation of field prices of new natural gas-by November 18. Conservation within Presidential directive to Presently reviewing FY75 first Government agencies on 1975 energy quarter data. Results will be conservation objectives issued. published by December 1. Monitoring system established. Voluntary conservation Developing targets to monitor First report due December 1. of 1 million bbls/day system. Reporting system has Monthly reports thereafter. been developed. Utility coal conversion Report to be submitted to the First draft due November 25. program President in 90 days, includ- Report and schedule will be ing any needed legislation. completed by January 8. Task force established and operating. Incentives to secondary Adjustments of current price Review of draft report to be and tentiary techniques controls to increase incentives completed by November 1. production to use secondary and tentiary Proposed rulemaking targeted techniques. Draft report for November. completed. 4 INITIATIVE CURRENT STATUS NEXT STEPS TREASURY Request state and federal National conference of state Initiatives and issues to be regulatory authorities to regulatory commissions held forwarded to ERD for considera- eliminate rate schedules September 13. Resulted in tion and assignment of lead which encourage excessive better climate for coopera- responsibility on November 1. energy consumption tion. Further initiatives suggested for consideration. COMMERCE Industry conservation Meetings with representatives Meetings with the entire audits of the six major energy business community to report consuming industries have the progress of these meetings been held. Long term, are being schedule. Dept of industry-wide voluntary Commerce/Chamber of Commerce conservation programs are meeting with executive leader- being organized which will ship of trade and industry continue appropriate energy associations will be held in conservation goals and a system Washington on November 1. for reporting progress to the government. EPA Amendments to Clean Air Some of desired amendments were Interagency meeting scheduled Act included in PL 93-319 (Energy for November 13 th develop Supply and Environmental additional technical Coordination Act). Hearings justification for the on remaining amendments have Administration's amendments. not been scheduled. 5 FORD LIBRARY INITIATIVE CURRENT STATUS NEXT STEPS AEC and Nuclear plant licensing JCAE hearings have been held Encourage Joint Committee to bill on Administration bill, but no report the bill out for bill has been reported. action this Congress.