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Middle East - General
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The original documents are located in Box 22, folder "Middle East - General" of the John Marsh Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald R. Ford donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. NOV 14 1975 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON November 13, 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR: JACK MARSH THROUGH: MAX FRIEDERSDORF FROM: VL m.f VERN LOEN SUBJECT: UN Zionist Resolution You asked for Congressional reaction to the UN General Assembly Resolution which describes Zionism as a form of racism. On Tuesday, November 11, the House passed, 384-0, H. Res. 855, condemning the action. The Senate earlier passed S. Con. Res. 73 which is identical except that it calls for the Foreign Relations Committee to reassess U.S. participation in the UN Assembly. That provision was dropped from the House version after Rep. Kastenmeier (D-Wisc.) objected to the unanimous consent request of Majority Leader Tip O'Neill, who co-sponsored the House resolution with Minority Leader John Rhodes. Judging from the comments I have heard both on and off the floor, Members are outraged at the action by the General Assembly, but not ready to cut off U.S. support as yet. Rep Lester Wolff (D-N.Y.) said Congress should "take a long hard look at our participation in the General Assembly, 11 and Rep. Bella Abzug (D-N.Y.) urged the UN to reconsider and rescind the resolution. Rep. John Rousselot (R-Calif.) went so far as to call for moving the UN to another country and Rep. Clarence Long (D-Md.) said that as a Member of the Foreign Operations Subcommittee, which handles the voluntary UN contributions, every request "will be closely examined in light of this vote on Zionism. " Digitized from Box 22 of the John Marsh Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library -2- The Administration request for FY'76 is $169 million, which has not yet been voted, on top of the $150 million assessment as a UN member, already voted. Such UN backers as Buchanan, Fraser, Bingham, Rosenthal and Findley said nothing during the brief discussions of the House resolution. However, Rosenthal and Buchanan on the same day joined in sponsoring H. Con.Res. 477, which reinstated the final paragraph of H. Res. 475 as follows: "Resolved, that the Committee on 1 International Relations and the Committee on Foreign Relations begin hearings immediately to reassess the United States participation in the UN General Assembly. 11 A copy of that resolution and Mr. Rosenthal's statement are attached. '005 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD Extensions of Remarks November 11, 1975 pled: The wheat exportedyp to the U.S.S.R. Hawaii's best daily newspapers will cer- other body by Senators HUMPHREY and 175, on the other hand was probably tainly, enhance that publication's jour- HUGH SCOTT., ased early in 1974 before wheat prices nalistic excellence. The General Assembly vote is in viola- cereal grain exports for the first six I wish John and his beautiful wife, tion of the United Nations charter, which atha of 1975 do not include any of the Kitty: the best of good fortunes as they encourages respect for human rights and purchases of wheat which have been move-from the cold Potomac to sunny for freedom of religion. It is a moral out- made recently by the U.S.S.R. These pur- Hawaii. rage of the first magnitudes hases will not begin appearing in the ex- The following information excerpted The attack on Zionism wreaks havoc figures until later this year and during. from a November 1, 1975 story in the on the concept of peaceful resolution of Star-Bulletin provides a partial view of international disputes and undermines This is all grain through the mill. What John Simonds career to date: the effectiveness of the United Nations by to be learned from it is the tremendous JOHN SIMONDS ASSUMES EDITORSHIP raising significant questions about the ager of one large purchaser creating John E. Simonds, a Washington bureau sincerity of the resolution's proponents normous disruptions in the world mar staffer with the Gannett News Service since in the search for a just and lasting peace etplace and taking unfair advantage of 1966 and its specialist on/news of Hawaii and in the Middle East. the Pacific areas, was named managing editor other nations whose poorer economies The bitter irony of the General Assem- with responsibility for news operations. may most desperately need & stable price bly vote was pointed out by the Israeli In becoming managing editor, Simonds on wheat and grain. In addition. the returns to the newsrdom where he served delegate when he noted that it came on fact that the Soviet Union found itself for eight.months-in 1972 on temporary.as the anniversary of the 1938 Nazi assault paying more than the world price in signment from the Gannett News Service's on Jewish communities throughout Ger- early 1975 should be a lesson to the So- Washington Bureau. many in which synagogues in all the viets that the best course of action is a Simonds, 40, has, spent 18 years in the cities were burned, Jewish holy books long-term stable gram and wheat pur- newspaper business, beginning as a reporter were destroyed and Jewish homes at- with Seymour, Indiana Daily Tribune and chase agreement. Finally, of course, such tacked. has worked for the United Press Interna- a regular system of purchases will pro-s Anti-Semitism is one of the oldest and tional in Columbus, Ohio; the Providence, tect the American consumer and Ameri- Rhode Island Journal-Bulletin and the most virulent forms of racism in history. can farmer from the boom-and-bust Washington Evening Star where he was an It was partially as a response to such at- high-price-and-scarcity cycle of unpre- assistant city editor before joining Gannett's tacks that the philosophy of a Jewish na- dictable, erratic and massive purchases Washington bureau. tional,homeland-Zioniam-evolved. To of agricultural commodities. A native of Boston, Simonds grew up in equate-th philosophy with racism is to Nyack, New York, is a graduate of Bowdon equate day with night. Zionism. is the College, Brunswick, Maine, and served as a antithesis of racism. lieutenant in the Army. The resolution follows: His personal interest in Hawaii predates JOHN SIMONDS ASSUMES H. Corr. RES. 477' Gannett's purchase of the Star-Bulletin. EDITORSHIP He is married to Kitty Muller Simonds, a Concurrent resolution relating to the United native of Maul, who has been a member of Nations and Zionism HON. ANTONIO BORJA WON PAT the staff of Hawaii Senator Hiram L. Fong . Whereas the United States, as a founder for 11 years. of the United Nations Organization has a OF GUAM fundamental interest in promoting the pur- IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES poses and principles for which that organi- HITLER WOULD HAVE BEEN zation was created; and Tuesday, November 11, 1975 Whereas in Article I of the Charter of the PROUD Mr. WON PAT. Mr. Speaker, the Gan United Nations the stated purpose of the nett News Service which owns and oper United Nations include: ates leading daily newspapers in Guam, HON. BENJAMIN S. ROSENTHAL- "To achieve international cooperation in solving international problems of an ecomy Hawaii, and many other U.S. areas, has OF NEW YORK nomic, social, cultural, or humanitarian just named one of their most outstand- IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES character, and in promoting and encourag. ing Washington bureau reporters, John Tuesday, November 11, 1975 ing respect for human rights and for funda Simonds, to be the new managing editor mental freedoms for all without distinction of the Honolulu. Star Bulletin. Mr. ROSENTHAL Mr. Speaker, the as to race, sex, language or religion;" and John's departure from Washington United Nations, which was founded to Whereas. the General Assembly of the combat the fascism and Naziism of United Nations decided to launch on Decem will leave a vacuum for those of us in World War II, has now apparently be- ber 10, 1973, a Decade of Action to Combat the Congress who have had the privilege Racism and Racial Discrimination and, a of working with him. John Simonds come an instrument of those venal program of action which the United States ways can be counted on to report events causes. As history's supreme racist and supported and in which it desires to par in a fair and unbiased manner. This -the engineer of the slaughter of 6 million ticipate; and characteristic and his sharp wit will be Jews, Hitler would have been proud of Whereas the United Nations General As sorely missed by his many friends and those 72 delegates to the General As- sembly on November 10, 1975 adopted a associates. sembly who voted last night to condemn resolution which describes Zionism as a form During his career in Washington with Zionism. of racism thereby identifying it as a target of the Decade for Action to Combat Racism Gannett. John Simonds has, I believe, A vote for that resolution was a vote and and Discrimination; and established a proud and remarkable rec- against everything the United Nations Whereas the extension of the program of ord of accurate journalistic reporting purports to stand for. The sound em- the Decade to include a campaign against and sincere dedication to the high prin- anating from supporters following the Zionism brings the United Nations to & point ciples of his craft. Although John's vote was not a cheer for victory but quite of encouraging anti-Semitism, one of the relentless pursuit of a story has occasion- possibly a death knell for the United oldest and most virulent forms of racism ally made me and my staff doublecheck Nations. known to human history; our facts. working with him has always Now, therefore, be it The time has come for a total reassess- left the distinct impression of absolute- ment by the United States of its role in Resolved, That the House of Represents- professionalism. tives (the Senate concurring). sharply con- the United Nations and its financial and demns the resolution adopted by the Gen-: As a result of his work with Members other support for the world body. Ac- eral Assembly on November 10, 1975 in that of Congress from Guam and Hawaii, cordingly, I am today joining my col- said resolution encourages anti-Semitism by John has become one of the most knowl- league from Alabama, Mr. BUCHANAN, in wrongly associating and equating Zionism edgeable persons in journalism about introducing a concurrent resolution con- with racism and racial discrimination. there- Pacific affairs. His deep understanding demning the U.N. action and calling for by contradicting a fundamental purpose of of the many problems and intricacies of hearings on further U.S. participation in the United Nations Charter; and: be it that part of the globe will stand him in the General Assembly to be held by the Resolved, That the Congress strongly on good stead as managing editor of the House International Relations Commit- poses any form of participation by the United Honolulu Star-Bulletin. While I regret States Government in the Decade for tee, on which I serve, and the Senate to Combat Racism and Racial Discrimina his departure from the Nation's Capital, Foreign Relations Committee.- identi- tion so long as that Decade and program John's presence at the rudder of one of cal resolution is being submitted in the main distorted and "compromised: by November I1; 1975 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD Extensions of Remarks 6007 aforementioned resolution naming Zionism U.S. government during the summer: over States, and another 3,000 to 4,000 work- as one of the targets) of that struggle; and whether to move. Thanks largely to pressure ing abroad. be it., from President Ford's political right, such The last two decades have been posi- Resolved, That the Congress calls for an a move is now more difficult: energetic effort by all those concerned with The argument in favor of pursuing nor- tive strides made in our country in elim_ the adherence of the United Nations to the malization is best put by A Doak Barnets, inating discriminatory barriers. The purposes stated in its Charter to obtain a leading student of Chinese affairs. Congress, executive branch and our consideration of the aforementioned resolu- There is continuing in China, he says, a courts have all played & part in making tion with & view to removing the subject of policy issue over the advisability of improv- America truly a country where all its Zionism, which is 5 national but in no way at Ing relations with the U.S. in their current citizens are afforded equal opportunity, racist philosophy, from the context of any status, those relations could retrogress more equality under the law and generally programs and discussions focusing on racism easily than if they were sealed by the ex- equal pay for edual work. or racial discriminations and be it further change of ambassadors. The unfair distinction drawn between Resolved, That the Committee on Interna- Additionally, he argues, Peking is not pre- tional Relations and the Committee on For- pared to discuss the things the U.S. would nonappropriated fund employees and eign Relations begin hearings immediately to like. to pursue-trade, extended exchanges, their counterparts, appropriated fund re-assess the United States further participa- and peace and security in Arsia-until nor- employees, must be erased now. Both tion in the United Nations General Assembly malization. these groups perform the same range of Further, the argument goes, Chairman services and yet the nonappropriated Mao-Tse-tung is alive now. Delay would put fund employees are treated inequitably. the issue beyond the election year and into NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH 1977 when China will probably be engaged For example, in my district, nonappro- CHINANMIGHT NOT HELP THINGS in the uncertainties of succession, and oppo- priated fund employees doing the same sition could then arise in China. work receive 30 to 60 percent less in If Mao's successors adopted an attitude hourly wages than appropriated fund HON. EDWARD J. DERWINSKI of limited detente towards Moscow and our employees. relationship with China had not moved, In 1972, Congress granted partial re- OF HEINOIS that would make it more difficult. lief to some nonappropriated fund em- IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES The opposite argument [which, for what ployees by enacting Public Law 92-392- Tuesday, November 11, 1975 it's worth, I favor] notes that the mere exist- ence of diplomatic ties has never prevented Wage Grade Act. However, this partial Mr. DERWINSKI Mr. Speaker, one of worsening of relations The current lines reform has failed to remove significant the members of the Washington press of communication are no better or worse than disparity in pay. corps uniquely qualified to analyze. the an embassy would provide. Hopefully, the Nation has learned from complex triangle involving the United The issues the United States wants to pur- this experience that partial remedies sue are not. urgent enough to warrant the States, Red China and the Soviet Union never result in equitable solution of seri- spectacle of our dropping an ally because is Frank Starr of the Chicago Tribune, ous problems. We now have the oppor- Peking wants us to. When Peking finds it in who served as that publication's bureau its interest to deal with such questions, it tunity to resolve this matter as it should chief for many years in Moscow. will find a way,to deal with them. have been done at the outset. Thus, in his article. published in the Current contacts and exchanges, experts Tribune on November 7, he analyzes the confirm, are not affected by the absence of full diplomatic relations. In fact, some coun- COMPANIES THROUGHOUT THE NA- situation, President Ford may face when tries which have such relations have less TION TO BE ADVERSELY AF- traveling to China I believe overall that satisfactory exchanges than we. FECTED IF NEW YORK CITY DE- his comments are very-much to the point As for the uncertainty of a Moscow-Pe- FAULTS The article follows: king detente, short of tandem policy co- NORMALIZING ATIONS. WITH CHINA MIGHT ordination, whicheno one expects, that might NOT HELP THINGS improve rather than worsen U.S. contacts. HON.-RICHARD L. OTTINGER (By Frank Stair) But for the moment the credibility of U.S. OF NEW YORK WASHINGTON. Some last minute confu- security guarantees in Taiwan is very much IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES in question m any case, so discussing It in sion erupted in planning President Ford's Peking can do no one any good. Tuesday, November 11.1975 trip to China, and perhaps it's just as well. If the trip were shelved for a while, no dam- Further, the firing of Defense Secretary Mr. OTTINGER. Mr. Speaker, my col- age would be done. James Schlesinger- the Chinese fa- The only issue currently outstanding is vored as & balance against what they saw leagues Congressmen GILMAN, PATTISON, one which the United States would do well as a U.S. bias toward Moscow-cannot cre- and PEYSER and I have just completed to avoid: Beyond that, there's no purpose to ate a favorable atmosphere for a Ford visit an 11,000-mile trip around the country be served by a Presidential visit to China ex- to Peking. advocate legislation authorizing a cept the care and feeding of what is essen- Federal loan guarantee for New York tially a. static but still delicate new Astan City and to sample public-opinion on relationship. Were it not for: the bruise of a NONAPPROPRIATED FUND this proposal. postponed trip, that job, being largely propa- EMPLOYEES We were extremely heartened to find randistic, could be done as well by long dia- that more than three-quarters of the tance. HON. WILLIAM- D. FORD people we informally interviewed ex- So what is the issue? It is normalization of relations, an issue that few in this country pressed support for New York and for OF MICHIGAN understand the meaning of but one which legislation to avoid that great city's de- some nonetheless periodically agitate to re- IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES fault. In our visits to Chicago, Los An- ve. Tuesday, November 11, 1975 geles, Denver, Cleveland, Grand Rapids, Technically It means closing the United Mr. FORD of Michigan. Mr. Speaker, Milwaukee, and Des Moines, people in States Embassy on Taiwan, ending the Amer- the streets, taxi drivers, people we met ican security commitment to Taiwan, remov- I recently introduced H.R. 10419 to grant in hotels and at airports, were over- ing troops stationed there, and upgrading nonappropriated fund employees, who do the mission in Peking to embassy status. the same work as appropriated fund em- whelmingly favorable to backing up There was a time right after the rebirth of New York. ployees, full parity both in wages as well S.-Chinese relations when Peking insisted America is very closely interrelated. as fringe benefits. was in no hurry to "normalize," and U.S. You cannot have catastrophe in one officials echoed that sentiment But since the While on active duty in the U.S. Navy major center without It affecting the rest latter part of 1973 a change has occurred and later in the U.S. Air Force Reserve, of the country. This is well illustrated mong the Chinese, who now bring pressure. I saw the work of these dedicated non- by information we obtained over the They have begun to support Puerto Rican appropriated fund employees, and have weekend from the office of New York eparatists, equating Puerto Rico with Tai- never forgotten it. wan, and the message China experts read City's Comptroller, Harrison J. Goldin, om Secretary Kissinger's recent trip there While there are only a small number of about possible adverse effects on the 18 that Peking is prepared to leave every- nonappropriated fund employees in my Nation's businesses if New York City bing statte until Taiwan is cashiered. congressional district, there are approxi- were to be allowed to default. In a partial But the debate seems to have begun in the mately 140,000. throughout the United listing for the seven States we visited, tolerance to start condoning, even by REQUEST FOR CONSIDERATION OF tional inaction. the demagogery witnessed HOUSE CONCURRENT RESOLU- eign Relations begin hearings immediately to yesterday at Neheadquarters. TION, 475, PROVIDING: FOR re-assess the United States further partic- DEMNATION OF RESOLUTION OF ipation in the United Nations General Assembly. U.N. ASSEMBLY EQUAT- U.N. SHOULD BECOME INSTRUMENT ING ZIONISM WITH RACISM AND The SPEAKERST there objection to FOR PEACE PROVIDING FOR HEARINGS TO the request of the gentleman from (Mrs. FENWICK asked and was given REASSESS FURTHER U.S. PAR- Massachusetts? permission to address the House for TICIPATION IN U.N. GENERAL AS- Mr. RHODES. Mr. Speaker, reserving minute and to revise and extend her SEMBLY the right to object, and I certainly shall remarks.) not object, It is my privilege and my Mr. O'NEILL: Mr. Speaker, I send to Mrs. FENWICK. Mr. Speaker, I join honor to join with the distinguished ma- the desk a concurrent resolution (H. with my colleagues in the strongest con- Jority leader in the presentation of this Con Res. 475). and ask unanimous con- demnation of what we have seen in the concurrent resolution. sent for its immediate consideration. general assembly: of the United Nations, There seems to be no doubt as to the The Clerk read the concurrent resolu- an organization that we had hoped would necessity for this resolution. The tion, as follows: be an instrument of peace in the world General Assembly of the United Nations CON. RES. 475 and, more than that, an organization de- has seen fit to adopt a resolution which voted to principle, exerting moral force, Concurrent resolution relating to the United states that Zionism is racism. This body Nations and Zionism rather than physical force, in the affairs has previously adopted a resolution con- Whereas the United States, as a founder of nations. demning such action. of the United Nations Organization has a I' think that al Ior tis are bitterly dis- Certainly this body and this Govern- fundamental interest in promoting the pur- appointed and outraged at what we have ment can have no part of any such poses and principles for which that organi- seen, and I only hope that this will not zation was created; and proceedings. move us 1 inch from our determination Whereas in Article I of the Charter of the I congratulate the majority leader for to make this organization what it should United Nations the stated purpose of the offering this resolution and it is my priv- be instrument for peace. United Nations include: ilege and honor to join with him in spon- hope that it will not move us 1 inch "To achieve-internationalEcooperation in soring it. from the direction n-which we know we solving international problems of an eco- Mr. Speaker, withdraw my reserva- nomic, social, cultural, or humanitarian have to go, which is forward in an or- tion of objection. character, and in promoting and encourag- derly world that exists on principles of The SPEAKER. Is there objection to ing respect for human rights and for funda- justice and law mental freedoms for all without distinction the request of the gentleman from Mas- Mr. Speaker, that is what I hope this as to race, sez, language or religion;" and sachusetts? very damaging action of the U.N. will Whereas the General Assembly of the Mr. KASTENMEIER. Mr. Speaker, re- bring about in the hearts and minds of United Nations decided to lunch on Decem- serving my right to object, I would like the people of this Nation. ber 10,Γ 1973, a Decade of Action to Combat to ask the majority leader if I heard the Racism and Racial Discrimination and a pro- reading of the concurrent resolution cor- gram of action which the United States sup- rectly in that, It calls for a reappraisal of THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CUT ported and in which it desires to participate; whether this country should be part of and ITS CONTRIBUTION TO THE Whereas the United Nations General As- the General Assembly? And if that is the UNITED NATIONS sembly on November 10, 1975 adopted a res- import of this concurrent resolution, (Mr. DEVINE asked and was given olution which describes Zionism as a form of while I sympathize otherwise with its ob- permission to address the House for 1. racism thereby identifying it as a target of jectives, I would be constrained to object the Decade for Action to Combat Racism and minute and to revise and extend his to the immediate consideration of it and Discrimination; and remarks.) Mr. O'NEILL. Mr. Speaker, if the gen- Whereas the extension of the program of tleman will yield, I would ask unanimous Mr. DEVINE Mr. Speaker, we are the Decade to include a campaign against consent that the last paragraph of the hearing a lot of moaning and groaning Zionism brings the United Nations to a point concurrent resolution be reread so that and finashing of teeth and wringing of of encouraging anti-Semitism, one of the oldest and most virulent forms of racism the gentleman from Wisconsin will un- hands here today about the U.N. known to human history: now, therefore, derstand exactly what is contained in the The majority leader (Mr. O'Neill) be it concurrent resolution made reference to the letter with 434 Resolved, That the House of Representa- The SPEAKER. Is there objection to Members against the resolution, and I tives (the Senate concurring), sharply con- the request of the gentleman from Mas- was one of the signators. demns the resolution adopted by the General sachusetts? I guess it took the Zionist racist reso- Assembly on November 10, 1975 in that said There was no objection. lution to pinpoint the U.N. irresponsi- resolution encourages anti-Semitism by The Clerk read as follows: bilities and get the attention of the Mem- wrongly associating and equating Zionism with racism and radical discrimination, Resolved, That the Committee on Interna bers. A number of us around. here have. thereby contradicting a fundamental pur- tional Relations and the Committee on For- been talking about this organization for pose of the United Nations Charter; and eign Relations begin hearings immediately to quite a period Atime. It has resolved be reassess the United States further participa- itself into nothing more than an inter- Resolved, That the Congress strongly op- tion in the United Nations General Assembly. national debating society. It has utterly poses any form of participation by the United Mr. KASTENMEIER. Mr. Speaker, I failed year in and year out in its peace- States Government in the Decade for Action object. keeping operation. to Combat Racism and Racial Discrimina- The SPEAKER. Objection is heard. Therefore, Mr. Speaker, I would hope tion so long as that Decade and program that the Members who are up here de- remain distorted and compromised by the aforementioned resolution naming Zionism ploring this action will, when the time TIME FOR REVIEW OF U.N. FINAN as one of the targets of that struggle; and comes to vote on the contribution of the CIAL SUPPORT be it United States for this organization, use Resolved, That the Congress calls for an (Mr. FRENZEL asked and was given their heads and reduce the share of the energetic effort by all those concerned with permission to address the House for United States, because we have been the adherence of the United Nations to the minute and to revise and extend his re: much too generous over the years. purposes stated in its Charter to obtain re- marks.) I do not think that we should neces- consideration of the aforementioned resolu- Mr. FRENZEL. Mr. Speaker, yesterday tion with a view to removing the subject of sarily abolish the United Nations, but we at the United Nations, the General As- Zionism, which is a national but in no way should put it in the proper perspective, a racist philosophy, from the context of any sembly voted in favor of resolutions that and not yield so much to all of these programs and discussions focusing on racism glorified anti-Semitism and terrorism. pipsqueak nations that have the same or racial discrimination; and be it further Our U.S. Ambsasador correctly described vote as we do. Resolved, That the Committee on Interna- previous such resolutions as "obscene" November 12, 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF FROM: JACK MARSH In reference to the recent action by the United Nations on the Zionist Resolution, do you suppose you could have your people take some doundings from Members, such as Buchanan, Fraser, Bingham, Rosenthal, Findley and their counterparty in the Senate, to see what the reaction is of those who have been strong U.N. backers to this action. JOM/dl QERALD FORD LIBRABI [176] MONOGRAPH SOVIET ARMS AID IN THE MIDDLE EAST by Roger F. Pajak The following monograph presents individual research FORD :- LIBRARY GERALD in support of the continuing World Power Assessment project of Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies. It is for limited circulation and represents only the views of the author. SOVIET ARMS AID IN THE MIDDLE EAST by Roger F. Pajak January 1976 FOREWORD In view of present tensions and the dangers of war in the Middle East, the extraordinary Soviet 20-year program of providing military equipment, supplies and training to Arab countries takes on special meaning. The program has been very large and very expensive, on the order of $7 billion for the Arab countries of the Middle East. The military and political results are still hard to assess, but it is clearly a critical element in the strategic situation in this explosive part of the world. We have asked a close student of Soviet arms aid diplomacy to put the record in a broad political perspective, setting forth Soviet successes and shortcomings in using what Moscow plainly considers a key instrument of Soviet Middle East policy. The author is Dr. Roger F. Pajak, a Foreign Affairs Adviser with the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. He received degrees in International Relations and Soviet Studies from Michigan State University, Harvard University, and American University, and has been with the United States Government as a Soviet foreign affairs specialist since 1963. By training and because of his present work, he is exceptionally well qualified to deal with the subject of Soviet arms in the Middle East. Copyright 1976 by The Center for Strategic Ray S. Cline and International Studies Executive Director of Studies All rights reserved TABLE OF CONTENTS I INTRODUCTION 1 II EGYPT 2 III SYRIA 19 IV IRAQ 28 V LIBYA 37 VI FUTURE OF THE PROGRAM 44 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION In the Soviet drive to gain influence and weaken the position of the West in the Middle East, arms aid has clear- 1y emerged as the most durable instrument in Moscow's diplomatic repertoire. The priority accorded the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy calculations is reflected in the share of total Soviet arms aid allocated to the area. Of the estimated $12 billion in such aid extended to the nonaligned, developing world from 1955 through 1974, the Arab countries of the Middle East have received about $7 billion, or roughly 60 percent of the total. How effective has arms aid been in accomplishing the objectives set for it by Moscow in the Middle East? With such advanced Soviet equipment as TU-22 supersonic bombers, MIG-23 swing-wing interceptors, and Scud tactical missiles being provided to the Arab states, has the program been worth the economic cost? Has it perhaps resulted in more problems than gains for Moscow? In particular, has nega- tive Egyptian reaction to Soviet policy irrevocably reoriented Cairo to Western sources of arms supply? In addressing these questions, this paper attempts to place the record of Soviet arms aid diplomacy in the Middle East in perspective. It delineates the checkered paths of the Soviet military assistance programs in the primary Arab "confrontation states" -- Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Libya -- particularly since the June 1967 war, with a view toward assessing the successes and shortcomings of this key instru- ment of Soviet policy in this volatile area. 1U.S. Department of State, Communist States and Developing Countries: Aid and Trade in 1974 (Washington, January 1976). BERALD FORD LIBRARY -3- CHAPTER II EGYPT and other equipment to Egypt to replace what had been destroy- ed.6 Among the developing countries of the Third World, Accompanying the heavy volume of materiel was an influx Egypt ranks as the leading recipient of Soviet military of Soviet instructors and advisers to improve the qualitative assistance. Since the beginning of Moscow's assistance shortcomings in the Egyptian armed forces. In the summer of program in 1955, Egypt by the end of 1974 had received 1967, the number of Soviet advisory personnel in Egypt grew an estimated $3.4 billion in Soviet arms aid. 2 to about 3,000, several times the number present before the June conflict. On the eve of the June 1967 war the arsenal of modern Soviet equipment in its hands gave Egypt, in conjunction In assuming a broadened training and advisory role in with the well-equipped Syrian and Iraqi forces, a formidable the Egyptian forces, Moscow penetrated the Egyptian military military capability against Israel. But in the brief six establishment to a depth it had never before achieved in any day conflict, the Arab forces were decimated, with Egypt non-Communist country. Soviet advisers and technicians were taking the heaviest losses. reportedly assigned to every air and naval base, military training facility, and major maintenance depot in Egypt. Whatever second thoughts Moscow may have had about its provision of modern arms to the Arabs, who used them neither The role of Soviet advisers thus changed dramatically wisely nor well, the immediate Soviet reflex action was to after the June war. With the acquiescence of the Egyptian initiate a large scale resupply airlift. Even while the High Command, the Soviet Union acquired an important voice fighting was going on, Soviet transport aircraft began in Egyptian training and tactical matters. 9 deliveries of replacement equipment to Egypt and Syria. 3 Within three weeks 130 jet fighters were reportedly deliver- In January 1970, a watershed event occured in the Soviet- ed.4 Egyptian relationship. As a result of Nasser's personal entreaties for some response to Israeli deep-penetration bomb- A year later, Soviet deliveries of military equipment ing raids in the Egyptian interior, the Soviets decided to had brought overall Arab inventories nearly up to pre-war establish and operate a full scale air defense system in Egypt. levels. By July 1968, the Egyptian air force consisted of The first contingent of Soviet SAM missile crews -- numbering about 400 aircraft, only 30 fewer than prior to the June about 1,500 men -- arrived in March 1970 and began installation war. 5 By the second anniversary of the war, Moscow had of an SA-3 surface-to-air missile system, specifically designed delivered approximately $700 million in aircraft, tanks, to counter low-flying aircraft. Shortly afterwards, the first Soviet-piloted MIG-21J interceptors (an improved version of the MIG-21), with supporting elements, began arriving at special ²Ibid. 3 Lawrence Whetten, "The Military Consequences of Mediter- ⁶Honorable R. Lawrence Coughlin, The Congressional Record ranean Super Power Parity," New Middle East, November (Washington: U.S. Congress, House, September 16, 1969), p. E7537. 1971, p. 17. 7 New York Times, July 16, 1968. 4 George Lenczowski, Soviet Advances in the Middle East (Washington: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy ⁸william Beecher, "The Soviet Push in the Mideast," Army, Research, February 1972), p. 150. April 1968, p. 23. ⁵Ibid. 9A. Y. Yodfat, "Arms and Influence in Egypt--the Record of Soviet Military Assistance, since June 1967, New Middle East, July 1969, p. 30. -4- -5- Egyptian air bases that would come under Soviet control. 10 form of base rights and shore support for ships of the Soviet By late spring, newly-arrived Soviet military personnel Mediterranean squadron. Following the June war, the Soviets numbered about 15, 000, some assigned as advisers to Egyptian were granted the use of various naval supply and repair air defense units, but the majority manning the new SA-3 and facilities in Egypt, including a large dry dock, two float- improved model SA-2 SAM sites proliferating in the Egyptian interior and in the canal zone. 11 ing docks, and repair yards in Alexandria,⁶ as well as facilities at the former British naval base at Port Said. 17 The Soviets also were allowed to begin development of a deep The widespread Soviet presence forced Israel to discon- tinue her deep penetration raids into Egypt as of mid-April. water port, largely for their own use, at the secluded port of Mersa Matruh, near the Libyan border. 18 At about that time, Soviet-piloted MIG-21J aircraft began flying defensive combat patrols over the Egyptian interior, Besides the use of Egyptian port facilities, the Soviets but refrained from interfering with Israeli aircraft operating in the canal zone. 12 Despite the presumed interest of both were allowed to base naval patrol aircraft in Egypt, thereby sides in avoiding a direct aerial clash, one such incident providing their fleet with important reconnaissance support. A variety of Soviet aircraft with Egyptian markings, located did occur on July 30, when the Israelis shot down four Soviet MIG-21's. 13 at several bases in Egypt, provided valuable tracking and positional data on U.S. and NATO naval craft for the Soviet Mediterranean squadron. 19 During the remainder of 1970 and into 1971, Soviet deliv- eries continued at a high level, as Moscow introduced a Another significant quid pro quo received by Moscow in variety of modern equipment into the Egyptian inventory. Egypt received some of the same types of air defense equip- return for its assistance was Cairo's acquiescence in a ment as the Soviet forces, even before the Warsaw Pact Soviet-Egyptian Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, signed nations in some cases. Besides being the first non-Communist on May 26, 1971. The treaty committed both sides to consult state to receive the new SA-3 missile system, Egypt received on matters of joint concern and threats to the peace and to the Frog tactical ground rocket and the mobile ZSU-23-4 radar avoid joining alliances hostile to the other partner. With- controlled antiaircraft gun -- regarded as the Soviets' most out precluding any of its options, Moscow thereby instituted effective weapon against low-flying aircraft. 14 Also note- a new element of deterrence against Israel, while reminding Cairo of its limited ability to maneuver. 20 worthly among Soviet deliveries was some of Moscow's latest electronic command and control equipment to improve the Egyptian air defense system. 15 In keeping with the vagaries of the Middle East, however, the nadir for Moscow in Soviet-Egyptian relations before the For her largesse, the Soviet Union exacted various October 1973 war was reached barely a year later, in July 1972, elements of non-economic repayment. The first was in the 6Washington Post, July 21, 1972, °Charles Wakebridge, "Electrons over Suez," Ordnance, 17 Sunday Telegraph (London), June 7, 1970. May-June 1972, p. 475. 11 Lenczowski, op. cit., p. 152. 18 Wynfred Joshua, Soviet Penetration into the Middle East (New York: National Strategy Information Center, 1971), p. 17. ¹²wakebridge, op. cit., p. 475. 19 Vice Admiral Isaac Kidd, Jr., "View from the Bridge of 13 Lawrence Whetten, "June 1967 to June 1971: Four Years the Sixth Fleet Flagship," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, of Canal War Reconsidered," New Middle East, June 1971, p. 23. February 1973, p. 27. 14 Ibid., p. 21. 20 Joshua, op. cit., p. 18. 15 International Defense Review, No. 3, May-June 1971, p. 211. -6- -7- with the expulsion of nearly all Soviet military personnel from Egypt. Frustrated by the military stalemate on the A flow of spare parts and replacement equipment was Suez Canel front and irritated by continued Soviet foot- maintained to Egypt after the Soviet exodus, but it took the October 1973 war to cause Moscow to resume arms deli- dragging on his entreaties for more advanced weapons, President Sadat gave the order for expulsion. Given several veries in earnest. The Soviets instituted a vast resupply days' advance notice, the Soviet withdrawal began even be- airlift on the second day of the war. 28 During the resupply fore Sadat's public announcement of July 18. 21 The sudden- operation Egypt reportedly received about 100 fighter air- ness and extent of the Soviet departure gave rise to craft, 600 tanks, and equipment for 30 SAM batteries. 29 speculation that Moscow had retaliated against Sadat's action by withdrawing its air defense units -- which reportedly were Even during the war, however, further strains arose in the exempted from the original expulsion order -- as well as Moscow-Cairo relationship. The reported Soviet insistence instructors and technicians. 22 This in turn may have prompted on payment in hard currency for new advanced equipment did Sadat to order out the Soviet naval reconnaissance units. 23 nothing to endear the Soviets to the Egyptians. 30 Cairo showed its displeasure by restricting Soviet contact with At any rate, the Soviets probably saw no point in argu- Egyptian troop units and access to equipment evaluation ing or pleading with Sadat, once the issue was made public. 24 reports 31 Rather than exacerbate a bad situation, Moscow presumably felt impelled to temporarily retrench in Egypt, while working Strains were reflected in a major speech by Sadat on to improve its position elsewhere in the Middle East at least April 18, 1974, in which the Egyptian leader announced that Egypt would end its exclusive reliance on the Soviet Union for the short term. for arms and would seek them elsewhere. Sadat said that he By early August, nearly all of the reported 21,000 had made this decision because Moscow, for the previous six Soviet advisory and air defense personnel in Egypt, 25 as well months, had not acted fully on his requests for more advan- as naval reconnaissance units, had returned to the Soviet ced weapons 32 In the wake of Sadat's announcement, all Union. Most of the air defense equipment, however, was shipments of Soviet military equipment, including badly turned over to the Egyptians, a notable exception being four needed spare parts, came to a halt. 33 MIG-25 Foxbat high altitude reconnaissance aircraft, which the Soviets took with them. 26 Only an estimated 700 or so From the date of Sadat's speech through the rest of the Soviet instructors were believed to be in Egypt by the end year, no Soviet deliveries of arms -- with the exception of 1972. 27 of two shipments of spare parts in August -- are known to have been made to Egypt. 34 An October announcement that 21 Anthony McDermott, "A Russian Withdrawal; or Divorce, Egyptian Style," New Middle East, August 1972, p. 6. 28 New York Times, November 28 1973. 22 New York Times, July 19, 1972. 29 Washington Post, November 24, 1973; Near East Report, January 16, 1974, p. I0. 23 Washington Post, August 2, 1972. 30 Washington Post, November 19, 1973 24 New York Times, August 7, 1972. 31 Aviation Week and Space Technology, December 17, 1973, 25 Military Aviation News, June 1975, p. 7. p. 16. 32 26 Ibid., July 1975, p. 4. New York Times, April 19, 1974. 33 27 Strategic Survey 1972 (London: The International Washington Post, May 23, 1974. Institute for Strategic Studies [IISS], April 1973), p. 26. 34 Military Aviation News, November 1974, p. 7. GERALD FORD LIBRARY -9- -8- cluded before and shortly after the 1973 war. 41 Soviet Party Secretary Brezhnev would visit Cairo in January heightened Egyptian hopes that a resumption of Soviet deli- The arrival of two squadrons -- about 24 aircraft veries was imminent. These hopes were dashed on December of MIG-23's in early 1975 finally raised overall Egyptian 30 when Moscow suddenly announced the indefinite postpone- combat strength to nearly the pre-October war level, ment of Brezhney's visit, ostensibly for reasons of health. 35 according to Western specialists. 42 Even the MIG-23's in Egypt's inventory, however, cannot be optimally employed In his first public remarks after the postponement of without the accompaniment of TU-114 radar-equipped early the visit, Sadat again took the Soviet Union to task for its warning aircraft, which the Soviets apparently have been refusal to replace all equipment lost in the October war. unwilling to export because of the sensitive equipment During an interview he stated: "I want every Arab to know involved. 43 Furthermore, the reported cessation of Soviet that since the ceasefire of October 1973 there has been shipments of air defense equipment -- SAM's, antiaircraft no Soviet replenishment and no major arms received up to this guns, and radar -- since the war has made it difficult for moment. "36 the Egyptian air defense forces to maintain a high degree of combat readiness. According to Egypt's air defense commander, In a dramatic move to secure military equipment from a his forces "have not received a single missile replacement different quarter, Sadat visited Paris in January 1975 with from the Soviet Union since the end of the October war. 1144 a shopping list for arms. During his visit, the Egyptian leader reportedly concluded a deal for several hundred million Another factor adversely affecting Egyptian combat dollars worth of equipment, including 44 advanced Mirage F-1 readiness has been the process of absorbing newer Western fighter aircraft, mostly for delivery in the late 1970's. 37 equipment, especially advanced Mirage fighters, into the Already in late 1974, Egypt had begun to receive the first predominantly Soviet-supplied inventory. 45 Moreover, of 36 Mirage fighters ordered on her behalf by Saudi Arabia. 38 dwindling Egyptian stocks of spare parts and the dearth of current Soviet shipments have forced a curtailment of Egyptian Sadat's Paris shopping spree apparently served to send training. The standard 20 hours of monthly flight time for a message to Moscow, as reflected in the arrival in Cairo on February 3 of Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko for two days air force 46 pilots, for example, has been reduced to about 15 hours. of talks. Gromyko attempted to soothe bruised Egyptian feelings by "activating" some arms contracts that had been suspended by Moscow since early 1974. 39 On February 18, the delivery of six advanced, swing-wing MIG-23 fighters to 41 Washington Post, February 9, 1975. Egypt was reported, the first shipment of major Soviet equip- ment in nearly a year. 40 Some spares and other equipment also 42 Ibid., June 13, 1975. began to arrive, reportedly under existing contracts con- 43 Robert Jackson, The Israeli Air Force Story (London: Tom Stacey, Ltd., 1970), p. 244. 35 Washington Post, December 31, 1974. 44 Aviation Week and Space Technology, July 7, 1975, p. 15. 36 New York Times, January 9, 1975, 45 Ibid., June 30, 1975, p. 12. 37 Ibid., February 19, 1975; Washington Post, January 30, ,1975. 46 Ibid., Washington Post, June 13, 1975. 38 New York Times, November 20, 1974. 39 Washington Post, February 17, 1975. 40 New York Times, February 19, 1975. -10- -11- Compounding these technical and materiel problems for and Qatar to establish a $1 billion Arab military industrial Egypt is the current Soviet demand that Cairo resume payments organization centered in Egypt. 51 With Saudi Arabia initial- for military equipment. Cairo has been seeking a renewed 1y providing the bulk of the financing, the new organization moratorium on repayment of its Soviet military aid debt is reported to be in the final negotiating stages with the estimated at $1.5 billion to $2 billion -- for some time. UK over a $1 billion arrangement to supply Egypt with 200 With a reported 75 percent of Egypt's annual exports -- other- Hawk light strike aircraft and 250 Lynx helicopters 52 as wise capable of earning badly-needed hard currency currently well as antitank missiles and electronic equipment. 53 going to Communist countries for overall foreign debt pay- ment, Sadat has appealed for a renewed ten-year suspension For the second phase of this long-term Arab rearmament of arms payments to enable Egypt to concentrate on rebuilding program, Cairo is also negotiating with the UK and France its economy. According to 48 Sadat, Syria has already been for the establishment of complete factories in Egypt for granted such a moratorium. the licensed production of both the Hawk and the Lynx. While it would require some years to attain a substantial During a May 1, 1975 speech, Sadat complained publicly output, these facilities would eventually serve as the of the Soviets' rejection of a payments delay recently nucleus of Egypt's arms industry. 54 Financing for these requested by Foreign Minister Fahmi in Moscow. "We never arrangements would be provided at a planned level of $1 said we will not pay," Sadat stated. "We are asking for a billion annually from 1975-78 by the newly established Arab reassessment of our position." Finally, making clear that industrial organization. 55 recent Soviet deliveries were made under pre-October war commitments, not new agreements, he complained, "The Soviet Egyptian officials concede that Cairo's increasing Union has refused to replace our losses, even if we pay cash. 1,49 shift in procurement policies entails a high degree of risk for Egyptian war readiness. This is especially marked be- Further infuriating Sadat was a new Soviet arms aid cause of the reported increase in Israeli combat capability arrangement with Libya disclosed in May 1975 (see below). since the October war. 56 While Egyptian government offi- With Libya's small 30,000 man army scheduled to receive as cials are optimistic over the country's ability to diversify many as 1,200 tanks, additional SAM equipment, and late-model its arms procurement and still field a credible military MIG-23's, compared with the relative trickle of Soviet equip- force, some Egyptian military officers take a gloomier view. 57 ment then arriving in Egypt, the Egyptians were understand- ably disgruntled. Sadat was especially vexed by Soviet "irresponsibility" in giving "expensive and dangerous war toys" to Libyan leader Qadhafi, whom Sadat regards as "100 51 Military Aviation News, May 1975, p. 6; The Economist, percent sick. "50 June 21, 1975, p. 69. To offset the serious shortfall in equipment require- 52 Military Aviation News, June 1975, pp. 6-7. ments from the Soviet Union, Egypt has been trying to 53 expand arms supply arrangements with the West. Another Christian Science Monitor, June 16, 1975. step in that direction was taken in May 1975 with the agree- ment by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, 54 Washington Post, May 12, 1975; Washington Star News, June 27, 1975. 55 The Economist, June 21, 1975, p. 67. 47 Washington Post, July 20, 1975. 56 Strategic Survey 1974 (London: IISS, April 1975), p. 15. 48 The Economist, June 28, 1975, p. 67; Aviation Week and 57 Space Technology, February 3, 1975, p. 16. New York Times, July 22, 1975. 49 Washington Post, May 2, 1975. 50 Ibid. June 13, 1975. -12- -13- Indications are that military dissatisfaction over Sadat's Another recent element of strain in Soviet-Egyptian arms diversification policies may be on the increase, as relations has been Cairo's hampering of the Soviet use of reflected in an abortive plot to overthrow him in June 1975. naval facilities in Egypt. As of the early summer of 1975, According to a Beirut newspaper, the Egyptian chief of intel- the Soviet Mediterranean fleet reportedly has been denied ligence and some 40 senior officers were reported to have been summarily retired under suspicious circumstances. 58 Other the use of two of its prime berthing facilities -- the port of Mersa Matruh, near the Libyan border, and an anchorage recent reports refer to disgruntlement on the part of many in Egyptian waters in the Gulf of Sollum. While Soviet na- officers who feel that Sadat's antagonizing of Moscow provides val craft have always been required to request permission the Soviets with a pretext for refusal to provide additional to enter Egyptian ports and anchorages, these requests equipment to Egypt. Some military elements also are upset heretofore have been treated as formalities and routinely by Sadat's espousal of peace negotiations which they feel granted. Since last June, however, Soviet requests to enter squander the fruits of the October war and make the option of renewed hostilities less credible. 59 the above two areas reportedly have not been answered, in effect amounting to a denial of entrance. 62 The Soviet Union may in fact be attempting to nurture Soviet ships have still been using the important such sentiment on the part of the Egyptian armed forces maintenance and repair facilities in the main port of with a view toward undermining the Sadat government. The Egyptian Communist Party inactive since 1964 on Moscow's Alexandria, but they have been encountering increasing orders -- is reported to be clandestinely preparing for a harassment on the part of Egyptian port officials. Long "return to action" in anticipation of the "sudden explosions" delays in gaining permission to enter the port have been to which Sadat's policies are expected to lead. 60 Soviet reported, as well as requirements to fill out additional forms and other types of red tape. Foreign diplomatic Arabic broadcasts to the Middle East of late are taking a sources have ascribed this Egyptian harassment of Soviet similar line. A recently issued Egyptian Communist Party document refers to the "patriotic trend" in the armed forces naval facilities as pressure on Moscow vis-a-vis Egypt's and alludes to Communist support in that quarter, while military debt question and the continuation of Soviet arms claiming that the party is "the only organized political shipments. 63 force" in Egypt, outside the government's own political machine. While not directly calling for the overthrow of An interview published in a Kuwaiti newspaper of September 9, 1975, provided the occasion for another of Sadat, Moscow may be orchestrating its propaganda, as well Sadat's bitter denunciations of the Soviet Union. Stating as the activities of Egyptian Communist Party elements, that "no person with dignity can accept the method of toward setting in motion events that may lead to the replace- Russian dealing", Sadat accused Moscow of failing him in ment of the Sadat regime⁶¹ currently perhaps Moscow's his "year of decision", prior to the October war. "Since I fondest hope in the Middle East. assumed power in Egypt," Sadat continued, "the Russians have not been satisfied with me. They want another president.' Speaking of arms supplies, Sadat complained that he was "ten 58 steps behind Israel and three steps behind Syria. ":64 Washington Post, July 30, 1975. 59 Ibid. 60 Ibid., August 28, 1975. 62 New York Times, July 28, 1975; Washington Post, July 20, 1975. 61 Ibid. 63 Washington Post, July 20, 1975. 64 Ibid., September 10, 1975. -14- -15- The deteriorating state of Soviet-Egyptian relations the White House press secretary reiterated that the US was further reflected in the reported withdrawal of four would consider Egyptian requests for military equipment Soviet-manned Foxbat reconnaissance aircraft from Egypt in "to increase Egypt's confidence in its course" of diver- September. These high performance aircraft, among the most sifying its sources of arms supply. 68 advanced in the Soviet inventory, had been operating in Egypt since the October war. With the loss of their Egyp- While the US appeared to be seriously considering tian base of operations for these aircraft, it was reported ending its two-decade-long arms embargo against Egypt, that the Soviets were negotiating with Syria for use of a indications were that Washington was not prepared to make similar base in that country. 65 any specific commitments to Sadat in the near term. Several days prior to the scheduled arrival of Sadat in the US, Meanwhile, with prospects for new Soviet arms acquisi- Secretary of State Kissinger stated: "I don't think we will tions currently remote, Sadat began to entertain serious be prepared at this moment to make any specific commitments hopes for securing some assistance from the US, particularly of military aid, but we will be prepared to discuss the after initialing the Sinai II disengagement pact with Israel problem with him in general terms. "69 on September 1, 1975. While realistically aware that Washing- ton could approve nowhere near the scale of major arms Not surprisingly, the question of US military sales to commitments in effect for Israel, Sadat hoped for at least Egypt during Sadat's visit to the US, October 26-November 5, a symbolic amount of defensive equipment, such as a squadron 1975, apparently was restricted to general discussions of of F-5 fighter aircraft at a minimum. Sadat further hoped Egyptian military needs, with no commitments made on an arms that his purchase of French Mirages in 1974 and early 1975 supply relationship. Sadat reportedly was told that the US would demonstrate that the Soviets no longer controlled could not now discuss specific arms acquisitions, but that Egypt's military posture. 66 "the subject could be reopened later. "70 Statements by US officials following Sinai II con- Sadat, however, did win an administration promise of comitantly gave some indication that the US might favorably approximately $1 billion in aid -- $750 million in economic consider Egyptian requests for military equipment during assistance and an additional $250 million in food aid. Sadat's planned visit to the US in October 1975. In an Egyptian government officials acknowledged that this was interview with the Los Angeles Times on September 24, 1975, a fourfold increase in the amount of US assistance to Egypt President Ford stated that "we will discuss with the Egyp - over the previous year, while there had been no US assistance tians certain arms assistance for them" adding that "there at all for the eight years prior to that. Thus despite the is to some extent an implied commitment." Due to the lack of a specific American arms supply commitment, Sadat strains between Egypt and the Soviet Union, Mr. Ford averred reportedly viewed his US visit as one of his most important that Sadat "has taken a very strong position" that "his own acts in formalizing the end of his prior exclusive dependence national security" would be jeopardized if Western sources on Moscow. 71 of military equipment were not found. 67 Several days later, Following his visit to the US, Sadat stopped in London for three days of arms supply talks with British officials. At a press conference there on November 8, 1975, Sadat claimed 65 Baltimore Sun, November 23, 1975. to be "completely satisfied" with the discussions in "diversi- 66 Washington Post, October 19, 1975. 67 Ibid., September 25, 1975. 68 New York Times, September 27, 1975. 69 Wall Street Journal, October 24, 1975. 70 Washington Star, November 9, 1975. 71 New York Times, November 6, 1975. -16- -17- fying the sources of Egyptian weapons supply." British In the meantime, the Egyptian armed forces are becoming officials reportedly indicated that Her Majesty's Govern- increasingly desperate for alternative sources of equipment ment had all but lifted its existing embargo on supersonic and supplies. Because of the shortage of spare parts, the Jaguar fighter bombers for Cairo. These modern aircraft army and air force are reported to have begun resorting to were reported to be at the top of Sadat's arms shopping cannibalization of existing equipment to maintain operational list. The sale of 200 Jaguars, valued at about $1.2 readiness. Concern accordingly has been evinced in the armed billion, was reported in the British press. 72 forces over Sadat's failure to obtain US equipment. Some military elements reportedly feel that, under present Asked why his arms purchasing mission apparently had conditions, Egypt does not pose a credible threat to Israel been more successful in the UK than in the US, Sadat replied and thus lacks sufficient military leverage to induce further that he had begun his arms diversification program with Israeli withdrawals from the occupied territories. 76 the UK and France last year and could now negotiate "speci- fics" with both countries. While in the US, he stated that Egypt, in the view of British military analysts, regards he could only sketch his military needs in "broad outlines, 173 US military equipment over the next five years as critical to its security interests. In the estimation of the Egyptian Inasmuch as the Jaguar is jointly produced by the UK military high command, a view shared to some extent by and France, it remained unclear what production sharing Israeli analysts, Egypt has sufficient equipment strength arrangements would have to be completed for the deal. The available to defend in the Sinai or, if necessary, to fight purchase is reported to involve an initial order of 30 to Israel in combination with other Arab states. The current 60 aircraft, with the Egyptians interested in eventually preoccupation of Cairo is with the military balance two producing the aircraft under license. 74 or three years from now. This is where the need for modern US or other Western equipment, especially fighter aircraft Sadat also is reported to have concluded an agreement and air defense radar, is viewed as acute. 77 for the purchase of British Swingfire antitank missiles in a $40 million deal. In addition, the Egyptians reportedly The Soviet Union, in the opinion of some Western mili- expressed an interest in purchasing the British Chieftain tary analysts, is not overly concerned by Sadat's efforts main battle tank, but London has been unwilling to intro- to "turn around" the Egyptian military forces. Sadat, duce this tank into the area because of the possibility of according to a Soviet source, "is only one man. 1.1. Further- disrupting the Arab-Israeli military balance. As an more, the source regards the arms aid program envisaged alternative, the British reportedly proposed a feasibility by Sadat as well beyond Cairo's financial resources, even study to re-engine the Soviet tanks now in the Egyptian if generous US aid is forthcoming. 78 inventory, and the Egyptians are said to be considering this possibility. 75 Egypt's prospects for obtaining large-scale Western military assistance to compensate for the reduced level of Soviet support appear to bear upon the internal 72 Cited in the Washington Post, November 9, 1975. 73Ibid. 76 New York Times, November 10, 1975. 74 Aviation Week and Space Technology, November 17, 1975, 77 Ibid., October 22, 1975. p. 22. 78 Ibid. 75Ibid. -18- CHAPTER III SYRIA* political situation in the country. The armed forces, in this respect, are regarded as Sadat's primary source of political support. 79 The ability of Sadat to secure a Syria, with $2.1 billion in Soviet military aid received continuing supply of modern weaponry -- from whatever source through 1974, ranks as the second largest recipient of Soviet -- to the satisfaction of his military establishment will arms among the nonaligned countries. 80 Soviet arms aid remain the crucial question in the survival of the Sadat cooperation with Syria dates from 1956, when in January of government. that year the Syrian government concluded its first arms accord with Moscow, because of the "impossible conditions" for purchasing arms attached by the West. After the 1956 accord, follow-up agreements, technical assistance, and 81 good will naval visits ensued in the usual Soviet pattern. Though encountering problems and periodic setbacks, a Soviet working relationship was maintained with Syria over the next decade. By the eve of the June 1967 war, Syrian military and economic dependence on Moscow was pronounced. 82 Though not suffering as heavily in the June war as Egypt, Syrian equipment losses were substantial. In air- craft, for example, Syria lost 32 MIG-21's, 23 MIG-15/17's, 2 IL-28 bombers, and 3 helicopters, for a total of 60 air- craft, or practically two-thirds of her entire air force. 83 Within a year, however, Soviet resupply had more than 79 Ibid., November 10, 1975. replaced Syria's losses. Replacement deliveries, reportedly valued at about $300 million, included 120 aircraft -- many late model MIG-21 and SU-7 fighters among them to replace earlier vintage MIG-15's and 17's lost in the conflict -- and some 400 tanks. As many as 1,000 additional Soviet advisory personnel also arrived in the country. At the same time, Soviet long-range bombers initiated visits to Syria, and the construction of naval support facilities began under Soviet supervision in the ports of Latakia and Tartus. 80 U.S. Department of State, op. cit. 81 Lenczowski, op. cit., p. 105. 82 Lenczowski, op. cit., p. 123. 83 Lenczowski, op. cit., p. 152. *This chapter and that on Iraq following are a revised version of an article that appeared in the Winter 1976 issue of Strategic Review. -20- -21- The latter would prove valuable for Syrian naval craft as By the middle of 1970, three years after the June war, well as ships of the Soviet Mediterranean squadron, as Syria was nearly totally dependent on the Soviet Union for regular Soviet naval visits in 1968 began to demonstrate. 84 the sustenance of its mìlitary machine. The air force, which had tripled in size since the war, boasted 175 late While Syria remained crucial to Soviet calculations in model MIG-21 fighters and SU-7 fighter bombers (as opposed the area, policy differences between the two countries grew to 55 before the war) and 85 MIG-17 fighters. 89 Deliveries more acute after the June war. The apparent central differ- to the ground forces during the three-year period included ence was over policy toward Israel. In contrast to Moscow's 250-300 tanks, over 100 armored personnel carriers, 400 espousal of a political approach to a settlement, the field guns and mobile rocket launchers, and an estimated 40 Syrians continued to press for reprisals and the total defeat SA-2 SAM missiles. 90 Transfers to the navy included two of Israel, as underscored by their heavy support of the Soviet-supplied minesweepers, six Komar-class missile Palestinian guerrillas. These differences placed a consider- patrol boats, and at least a dozen motor torpedo boats. 91 able strain on Soviet-Syrian relations. 85 Striving to correct the operational deficiencies in At the end of 1968, reports in the Lebanese press the Syrian armed forces were an estimated 2,000 to 3,000 mentioned Syrian attempts to approach the West for military Soviet military instructors and advisers, perhaps one-fifth equipment, ostensibly because of Soviet threats to with- the number in Egypt at the time. As in Egypt, the Soviet hold arms if Damascus continued to oppose an Arab-Israeli personnel were engaged in training, planning, and logistics political settlement. Although a Syrian military delegation activities down to divisional, and in some cases lower, returned empty-handed from Paris, Damascus shortly after- levels. Although some improvement was said to have been wards concluded a new agreement with Moscow, in an apparent made in Syrian operational efficiency since the June war, successful use of counterpressure on the Soviets. 86 Soviet officers in Syria did not consider the Syrian forces ready for renewed hostilities with Israel. 92 Operational The Syrians apparently tried to repeat this tactic the and maintenance standards remained lamentably poor, a partial following year, when, in May 1969, a Syrian military mission legacy of the eight coups d'etat undergone by the country in visited Peking. The aim reportedly was to pressure the Soviets to provide additional advanced weapons by seeking the previous 17 years. Morale 93 in the armed forces accord- ingly remained at a low ebb. assistance from the Chinese. 87 The latter turned down a reported Syrian request for SAM's, but did agree to provide Another military aid agreement signed with Moscow in infantry weapons for the Palestinian guerrillas based in February 1971 continued the flow of materiel in that year. Syria. 88 Deliveries over the next six months included 35 additional fighter aircraft and 22 MI-8 helicopters -- the first known delivery of the latter craft, designed to carry com- bat troops. 94 84A.Y. Yodfat, "The USSR, Jordan, and Syria," Mizan, March-April 1969, p. 84. 85Charles McLane, Soviet-Middle East Relations (London: 89 Aviation Week and Space Technology, June 1, 1970, p. 16. Central Asian Research Center, 1973), p. 91. 90 Lenzowski, op. cit., p. 152. 86Yodfat, "The USSR, Jordan, and Syria," op. cit., p. 88. 91 Joshua, op. cit., p. 20. 87 New York Times, May 18, 1969. 92 Christian Science Monitor, July 9, 1970. 88Honorable R. Lawrence Coughlin, op. cit., p. E7537. 93 Jackson, op. cit., p. 168, 94 New York Times, July 12, 1971. -22- -23- While the April 1972 Soviet friendship treaty with The chief of Israeli military intelligence, General Iraq received considerable attention in the Western press, A. Yariv, publicly stated at the time that the Soviets were a similar treaty with Syria was conspicuous by its absence. "playing up" developments in Syria to bolster their diplo- Surprisingly enough, Syrian wariness over a closer involve- matic position in the area following their setback in Egypt. ment with Moscow reportedly caused Damascus to reject a Soviet offer of such a treaty. 95 Another Soviet-Syrian While stating that his country was watching the situation carefully, Yariv commented that there were no signs of a arms accord, however, was signed in May, the accord promis- substantial increase in the Soviet presence in Syria -- a ing the Syrians their first SA-3 SAM's, as well as additional factor of more concern to Israel than new equipment deli- missile-equipped patrol boats. 96 veries. He added that the recent shipments apparently were intended to bolster Syria's "relatively weak side," Following the sudden ouster of virtually all Soviet her air defense, given reports of the newly-arrived SA-3 personnel from Egypt in July 1972, Western observers awaited equipment. 100 some reactive move by the Soviets in the area. It came two months later in the form of a prominent airlift of Soviet The diplomatic reaction from the September-October air military equipment to Syria. During late September and early and sea lift had just abated, when another, even larger, October, some 20 AN-12 transport aircraft, as well as several airlift began in November and continued into December. The merchant ships, arrived in Syria with new equipment, report- latter, about twice as large as the previous airlift, invol- edly including 12 to 15 MIG-21 fighters, new T-62 medium ved about 40 aircraft, including the very large AN-22 tanks, and SA-3 missiles. 97 Also arriving in the airlift transport, capable of carrying a 220,000 pound payload. were a reported 150 new Soviet advisers, probably SA-3 A11 that has been reported on the contents of the later air- instructors and technicians, adding to the several thousand lift was the inclusion of an unspecified number of MIG-21 already in the country. 98 Moscow evidently took this con- fighters, presumably to replace the dozen or more shot down spicious and dramatic step to demonstrate that it still in dogfights with the Israelis over the previous half year. 101 maintained a secure foothold in the Middle East. Deliveries continued on a heavy scale during 1973. Also in September, Western sources reported that Moscow During the first six months, Soviet shipments amounted to negotiated some type of arrangement with Damascus, whereby a reported $185 million, compared with about $150 million the Soviets would expand naval facilities at the Syrian for all of 1972. 102 ports of Latakia and Tartus for their use. Up to that time Soviet naval craft could only make port calls at those In September 1973, Syrian and Israeli aircraft tangled locations. The exact nature of the arrangement was not made in the biggest air battle in the Middle East since the clear, but the Soviets presumably planned to establish an 1967 war. Israel claimed it shot down 13 Syrian MIG-21's alternate base of operations in the Eastern Mediterranean, until the status of their Egyptian bases became clarified. 99 for the loss of one of its Mirages The day following the 95 Strategic Survey 1972 (London: IISS, April 1973), p. 27. 100 Washington Post, September 28, 1972. 101 Ibid. January 10, 1973. 96R. M. Burrell, "Opportunities for the Kremlin's Drive East," New Middle East, July 1972, p. 13. 102 London Sunday Times Staff, The Yom Kippur War (New York: Doubleday, 1974), p. 72. 97 Washington Post, September 28, 1972. 98 Ibid., October 6, 1972. 99New York Times, September 14, 1972. -24- -25- battle, Soviet Ambassador Mukhitdinov was reportedly summon- system and other electronic equipment. 107 A Pentagon spokes- ed by President Assad, who demanded advanced MIG-23 fighters man in effect subsequently confirmed the Israeli information, from Moscow, as well as Soviet participation in Syrian saying he would not quarrel with the levels mentioned by SAM launch operations in future clashes with the Israelis. Peres. He added, however, that US analysts estimated the When the Soviets apparently demurred unless Damascus signed number of Soviet advisers present at about 2,000. 108 a friendship treaty with Moscow, Assad restricted the movement of Soviet advisers in the country. 103 "Those Besides replacing Syrian war losses, the Soviets pro- damned Syrians,' complained Ambassador Mukhitdinov, "will vided additional modern equipment to Damascus. In the spring take anything except advice. "104 of 1974, the first advanced swing-wing MIG-23 fighters were identified in Syria}09 the first country outside the Soviet The October war showed the extent of the vast Soviet- Union to receive this late-model aircraft. 110 A total of supplied arsenal in Syria. The Syrians deployed a reported 45 were reported in the country. 111 Other newly-arrived total of 32 SA-6 batteries (Egypt deployed 46), each battery sophisticated equipment included 30 Scud surface-to-surface having four launchers with three missiles apiece. In the missiles with a range of 180 miles, over 100 Frog shorter- first three days of hostilities, the number of SAM missiles range tactical rockets,12 vehicle-mounted multiple SA-7 fired on the combined Syrian and Egyptian fronts reportedly SAM launchers, and new 180 mm howitzers. 113 The Scuds, with totalled over 1,000, reflecting a deployment density their capability of striking Israeli cities with high surpassing that of any. known SAM system in the world, the explosive warheads, posed the gravest concern to Tel Aviv Soviet Union included. 105 Syrian losses reportedly totalled and raised the threat of an Israeli preemptive strike in the 222 aircraft of all types (about two-thirds of total air event of an imminent renewal of hostilities. 114 force strength), some 1,100 tanks (50 percent of total tank holdings), and 17-20 SAM batteries (over half of Syria's Prior to the post-October resupply of the Syrians, inventory) 106 Israeli military planning was based on the premise that Egypt While Soviet arms deliveries to Egypt virtually ceased after the war, Soviet shipments to Syria continued at a high rate. By August 1974, Israeli Defense Minister Shimon 107 Ibid. Peres claimed that not only were Syrian losses replaced, but that Syria was stronger than before the war. Mr. Peres 108 Defense/Space Daily, December 19, 1974, p. 264. stated that Syrian air force strength totalled about 400 aircraft -- about 25 percent more than prior to October 109 Washington Post, September 12, 1974. 1973 and that its SAM system was about 20 percent larg- er. In addition, all tank losses had been made up, mostly 110 Known by the NATO codename, Flogger, the aircraft is with modern T-62's. Peres added that about 3,000 Soviet capable of speeds more than twice the speed of sound, with advisers were in Syria, some operating the missile defense approximately the same performance characteristics as the F-4 Phantom, except for a less favorable range and ordnance capacity (Washington Post, February 2, 1975). 103 Washington Post, September 26, 1973. 111 Ibid., September 12, 1974. 104 London Sunday Times Staff, op. cit., p. 72. 112 Ibid., November 20, 1974. 105 London Sunday Times Staff, op. cit., p. 189. 113 International Defense Review, No. 3, May-June 1974, 106 p. 284. New York Times, August 8, 1974. 114 Washington Post, November 20, 1974. -26- -27- was the fulcrum of war or peace in the area. It was further regarded that no war was feasible without Egyptian partici- to the current fragile peace in the Middle East. It remains pation, and that while Cairo was involved in negotiations, to be seen whether Syria, now heavily subsidized by Saudi the likelihood of hostilities was not imminent. I15 Arabian funds, will continue its tentative probings toward the West for military equipment and industrial development, 20 The spate of Soviet shipments to Syria in 1974 changed or will remain closely tied to Moscow. the outlook of the Israelis. The latter by mid-year regarded the Syrians as capable of launching a full-scale onslaught on their own, with the expectation that the Iraqis and other Arab countries would join in. 116 Indeed, US officials at that time also felt that "the Syrians were well ahead of where they were before the war," as a result of the heavy volume of Soviet deliveries, while the Egyptians were approximately at their pre-war strength. Concomitantly, 120 Washington Post, June 23, 1975. Washington regarded Israel as stronger militarily vis-a-vis both Egypt and Syria than before the war. 117 The critical Syrian weakness remained trained and experienced manpower. Half of Syria's tanks were reportedly manned by inexperienced crews, while many aircraft remained grounded due to the shortage of fully qualified pilots, only about 60 of whom were reported to have survived the war. 118 Until Syrian pilots could be trained, some of the newly arrived MIG-23's were reportedly being flown by Cuban and North Korean pilots. 119 Despite shortcomings in training and experience in its armed forces, Syria -- one of the most volatile and impatient of the Arab states -- poses a serious threat 11 New York Times, August 8, 1974. 116 Ibid. 117 Ibid., October 3, 1974. 118U.S. News and World Report, March 17, 1975, p. 14. Time, December 2, 1974, p. 46. FORD GERALD LIBRARY CHAPTER IV -29- IRAQ toward the Kurds for some time, was seriously disturbed by Baghdad's handling of the rebellion. 124 It went so far as Iraq ranks after Egypt and Syria as the third major to publish a warning in Pravda in June 1963 that the Soviet Arab recipient of Soviet arms aid, having received $1.6 Union would not remain indifferent if Soviet arms were used billion in such assistance through 1974. 121 The close against the Kurdish dissidents. Arms shipments concomi- Soviet-Iraqi arms supply relationship began following the tantly were curtailed. These moves provided the first coup of General Abdul Karem Kassem against the Nuri al-Said known instance of Moscow's use of leverage against an aid government in July 1958. As the sole Arab member of the recipient and served to restrain the Iraqis in their anti- anti-Soviet Baghdad Pact, Iraq had alienated Arab nation- Kurdish operations. 125 alist elements and had been eclipsed in prestige by Egypt, Iraq's traditional rival. Kassem, seeking to counteract After the Right Baathist regime was overthrown by a these factors, changed Iraq's foreign policy stance to one military junta in November 1963, the new Iraqi government of nonalignment and severed military ties with the West. removed most strictures against the local Communists and In order to further strengthen his domestic position and arranged a truce with the Kurds. The Soviet attitude enhance Iraq's regional stature, Kassem concomitantly ap- toward Baghdad changed markedly, as reflected in the re- proached the Soviet Union for military assistance. 122 sumption of arms shipments in early 1964. 126 The Soviets responded quickly to the Iraqi requests. While Soviet-Iraqi relations improved over the next Delivery of a squadron of MIG-15 fighters in late 1958 was several years, the Kurdish problem continued to fester followed by the arrival of a large military training mission. between the two countries. In 1965, Baghdad again launched Other deliveries of aircraft, including MIG-17 and MIG-21 a large-scale offensive against the dissidents. This time, fighters, transports, helicopters, and trainers, took place however, Moscow appeared unwilling to strain relations with in the early 1960's as the Iraqi air force was reorgan- Baghdad and refrained from pressuring Iraq. Within the ized and modernized. 123 broader context of overall policy objectives in the Arab world, Moscow apparently was not prepared to manipulate its Despite this assistance, strains arose in Baghdad's arms aid tie at this time. 127 Soviet cooperation continued relations with Moscow. The Iraqi Communist Party, follow- with the installation of an SA-2 surface-to-air missile ing its abortive revolution in February 1963, received system and the delivery of three additional squadrons of rough treatment by the Right Baathists, an extremist fac- all-weather MIG-21 interceptors and Iraq's first TU-16 tion which overthrew the Kassem regime during the same medium jet bombers. 128 month. Even more troublesome in Soviet-Iraqi relations was the regime's war against the rebellious Kurdish tribesmen in northeast Iraq, which had been underway since 1961. Moscow, which had maintained a protective attitude 124 McLane, op. cit., pp. 55 -56. 125 The Economist, June 29, 1963, p. 1344. 121U.S. Department of State, op. cit. 126 McLane, op. cit., pp. 56-57. 122 Joshua, op. cit., p. 17. 127 Joshua, op. cit., p. 19. 123 Jackson, op. cit., p. 171. 128 Military Aviation News, July 1974, p. 5. -30- -31- Iraqi losses in the June 1967 war, though sizable, were Despite the relatively cautious nature of the Soviet on a much smaller scale than those of Egypt and Syria. commitment, Soviet- Iraqi- relations continued to be close. Aircraft losses included 9 MIG-21's, 5 Hawker Hunters, 1 Soviet arms shipments continued, highlighted later in the TU-16 medium bomber, and 2 transports. As a result of Soviet year by the installation of the first SA-3 SAM sites in replacement deliveries, Iraqi air force strength a year after the country. 133 the war substantially exceeded the pre-war level. By mid- 1971, the Soviets had, over a four year period, provided Iraq A rather curious--and still unexplained--development with 110 MIG-21 and SU-7 fighters, over 20 helicopters and occurred in the late summer of 1973 with the delivery of trainers, 100-150 tanks, some 300 armored personnel carriers, about a dozen supersonic TU-22 Blinder medium-range bombers and about 500 field guns and artillery rockets. 129 to Iraq. Although the Blinder had been in Soviet service for some 12 years, this was the first and only deployment The Soviet aid relationship with Iraq flourished, nur- of this type of aircraft outside the Soviet Union or Eastern tured at least partly by Baghdad's unusually good repayment Europe. Capable of speeds of approximately 900 mph, with record. With hard currency earnings from oil exports, Iraq a range of 1,400 miles, the Blinders were described by the was better able than any other Soviet client to meet its Pentagon as "far more formidable than any aircraft supplied repayment obligations to Moscow. 130 by Moscow to Egypt or any other Arab nation so far. 134 Oddly enough, though delivery occurred just prior to the The military-diplomatic relationship between Moscow and October war, no mention was made of the aircraft being used Baghdad was formalized in April 1972 in the signing of a in the war. fifteen-year Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation during Premier Kosygin's first visit to Iraq. 131 Apparently result- While the bomber could represent a threat to Israel or ing from Iraqi initiative, the treaty constituted a major Iran, Iraq's prime adversaries, the general assessment of step in Soviet efforts to consolidate and formalize a Western military specialists was that introduction of the political position in the Arab world independent of the aircraft did not alter the military balance. 135 Soviet Soviet presence in Egypt. motives in supplying the aircraft were unclear, but US officials viewed the move as an attempt by Moscow to reas- Similar to the 1971 treaty with Egypt, the accord called sure its Arab clients that they could continue to rely on for cooperation in the military, political, and economic the Soviet Union for advanced military equipment. 136 spheres and regular consultations on international issues affecting the interests of both parties. Also, like the Egyptian treaty, it did not provide for mutual assistance in the event of hostilities, but stipulated only that the 133 Ibid. two sides would continue to assist each other in strengthen- ing their defense capabilities and to "coordinate their 134 Military Aviation News, October 1973, p. 15. positions" should a threat to peace arise. 132 135 New York Times, October 3, 1973. 136Ibid. 129 Lenczowski, op. cit., p. 153. 130A. Y. Yodfat, "Russia's Other Middle East Partner," New Middle East, November 1971, p. 28. 131 Alvin Z. Rubinstein, "The Soviet Union in the Middle East," Current History, October 1972, p. 169. 132 Strategic Survey 1972 (London: IISS, April 1973), p. 28. -32- -33- Little definitive information is available on the ex- This reported involvement of Soviet pilots, as well as tent of Iraqi involvement in the October war, but Baghdad's ground force advisers, 140 in combat missions was the first equipment losses were believed to be small. Following the such reported role for Soviet personnel since the clash of conflict, the Soviets continued to supply new types of late Soviet-manned Egyptian MIG's with Israeli aircraft in 1970. 141 model equipment to Iraq. Scud surface-to-surface missiles-- Reports had appeared in Western newspapers of Soviet parti- with conventional warheads--were reported in Iraq for the cipation in bombing missions against anti-government dis- first time in late 1974. Additional Soviet military ad- sidents in the Sudan in 1971, but these were not confirmed. 142 visory personnel also were reported in the country, giving rise to speculation that the missiles would remain under US specialists believe that the use of advanced Soviet Soviet control initially. Scud missiles--minus nuclear aircraft against the Kurds probably had more political than warheads had previously been provided to Egypt and Syria. 137 military significance. The utilization of high performance aircraft and Soviet pilots would not have an appreciable In October 1974, it was reported that the MIG-23, one military impact in an elusive guerrìlla war, such as the of the most modern fighters in the Soviet inventory, also Kurdish campaign in the rugged mountains of northeastern had been introduced into Iraq for the first time. About 12 Iraq, where few profitable targets existed for aerial at- were reported to have arrived in Iraq, although no fully tack. 143 The active Soviet role at any rate presumably did qualified Iraqi pilots were yet available to fly them. 138 serve the useful purposes of providing operational experience for Soviet military personnel and signifying Soviet support 144 Western observers speculated that the arrival of the at a crucial time for Baghdad. MIG-23's was in response to the continuing military buildup by neighboring Iran, especially the orders for 80 advanced By early 1975, however, problems again arose in Soviet- US F-14 fighters placed by Teheran in the first half of Iraqi relations. Friction began with the Soviet purchase of 1974. Another possible use mentioned for the aircraft was a sizable amount of Iraqi oil which Moscow resold at a pro- employment against the Kurdish dissidents -- the subject of fit to third countries. Baghdad was further perturbed by renewed hostilities by the Iraqi government following the Moscow's non-reaction over Iran's occupation of two small, Kurds' rejection in March 1974 of Baghdad's limited autonomy but strategic islets in the Persian Gulf, Iraq's outlet to plan. Reports had been circulating that the TU-22's deli- the sea. Overshadowing these two developments, however, vered earlier already had been involved in bombing strikes was the perennial sore spot caused by the Kurdish war. against the Kurds. The latter aircraft reportedly were flown by Soviet crews in high-altitude bombing strikes to minimize chances of being shot down, a consequence which could have proven diplomatically embarrassing for Moscow. 139 140 Washington Post, February 2, 1975. 141 Ibid., October 5, 1974. 137 Washington Post, February 2, 1975. 142 Ibid., January 1, 1971; Manchester Guardian, March 5, 1971. 138 Ibid. 143 Washington Post, October 5, 1974. 139 International Defense Review, No. 5, September - 144 October 1974, p. 574. Ibid. -34- -35- The festering problem of Kurdish separatism had prac- we should diversify in this field we shall do so We tically transfixed Iraqi foreign policy for some time. have a free will. 149 While Baghdad remained committed to preventing any signifi- cant Kurdish autonomy, Moscow had long viewed the Kurdish Iraq indeed appears to have emerged from its former minority in Iraq as a potential base from which similar paranoiac isolation toward a more open role in the Arab separatist tendencies could perhaps be fostered in the world. In March 1975, Baghdad -- while still wary of larger Kurdish population of neighboring Iran. Exacerbating Iranian ambitions for hegemony in the Gulf area concluded the situation, from Moscow's viewpoint, was the Iraqi a border accord with Tehran. This accommodation paved the army's reported tendency in the renewed hostilities to way for a successful culmination of the Iraqi offensive concentrate on local Kurdish leaders with Communist procliv- which finally ended the Kurdish war a few weeks later. 150 ities. 145 Baghdad's cooperative international mood continued with the conclusion in July 1975 of a border agreement with Saudi As the harsh winter weather stalled Iraq's anti-Kurdish Arabia, ending years of enmity with that country, as well offensive at the beginning of 1975, Baghdad made repeated as an economic aid program with Jordan, another traditional urgent entreaties to the Soviet Union for additional artil- rival. Finally, development contracts concluded with lery, infantry weapons, and ammunition. These entreaties Japanese and Western European firms151 instead of the elicited little response from Moscow, severely straining Soviet Union -- to enlarge the Iraqi port of Um Qasr may ties with the Iraqi government. 146 The uncooperative Soviet the Soviet Union. signify a further 152 degree of estrangement between Iraq and attitude apparently contributed to Iraqi efforts to acquire military equipment in the West. This does not mean that Moscow is prepared to allow Baghdad had made some large-scale purchases from France its painstakingly developed relationship with Iraq to already the previous year. Included in the 1974 deals were crumble away. While Baghdad has long been important in 31 Alouette III helicopters, armed with SS-11 antitank mis- Soviet policy calculations in the Middle East, it is siles, 147 1,000 automatic 60 mm mortars, 60,000 rounds of currently all the more so because of the tenuous Soviet artillery ammunition, and laser range finders for armored position in Egypt. The Soviet Union remains vitally cars, for a total reported value of about $70 million, interested in preventing another Iraqi defection from the amounting to a significant arms purchase arrangement. 148 ranks of the "progressive" Arab states as occurred in 1955. Moscow also maintains an avid interest in Iraqi oil, Iraq's discernible edging away from its traditional xenophobic isolation was thus given added impetus by Moscow's foot dragging in providing additional arms supplies in 149 early 1975. Questioned about Iraq's reported arms shopping Washington Post, April 25, 1975. in the West, after a decade and a half of nearly exclusive 150 reliance on Moscow, Iraqi President Saddam Tikriti in New York Times, March 23, 1975. April 1975 stated: "If national conditions dictate that 151 Washington Post, July 20, 1975. 152 Instead of a "formidable Soviet naval base" located 145 Ibid., February 9, 1975. at Um Qasr, as reported in the Western press over the past few years, two US newsmen who visited the site in February 146 Ibid. 1975 reported only "half a dozen jetties built out into the estuary from naked sand," plus "a cluster of sheds, 147 SIPRI Yearbook 1975 (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1975), housing, and headquarters buildings of the Iraq navy" p. 203. (see Washington Post, February 12, 1975). 148 Military Aviation News, September 1974, p. 16. -36- CHAPTER V perhaps the most accessible foreign source available, as LIBYA well as in potential access to Iraqi port facilities in the Persian Gulf. Given such motivations, one can expect a sustained commitment on the part of Moscow in arms aid and In September 1969, a group of radical officers over- other support for Iraq. 153 threw the constitutional monarchy in Libya. The ruling Revolutionary Command Council quickly established close ties with Cairo. Its leader, Colonel Qadhafi, became the most ardent proponent of revolutionary Pan-Arab policy and called for the early liberation of Arab lands occupied by Israel. 154 153 McLane, op. cit., p. 58. The overthrow of the royalist government opened a new phase in Soviet relations with Libya. Moscow moved quickly to recognize the Qadhafi regime. The latter, while remain- ing hostile to Arab Communism, was not averse to establishing ties with the Soviet Union. In the process of consolidating its hold on the country, the new government ingratiated itself with Moscow by causing the US and the UK to evacuate their Libyan bases in early 1970. 155 Soviet military equipment sought by Qadhafi was not long in coming. The first deliveries of 30 medium tanks and 100 armored personnel carriers and other vehicles arrived in July 1970. 156 The equipment was subsequently exhibited in the September 1 parade commemorating the first anniversary of the revolution 157 While willing to procure Soviet ground forces equipment, Qadhafi did not wish to deal exclusively with Moscow for arms. 158 In fact, he earlier had negotiated a surprisingly large contract with France for 110 sophisticated Mirage 154 Lenczowski, op. cit., p. 153. 155 McLane, op. cit., p. 77. 156washington Post, July 23, 1970. 157 Lenczowski, op. cit., p. 153. 158 Lenczowski, op. cit., p. 153. -39- -38- fighter aircraft. With only a handful of barely-trained To replace the Egyptian advisers, Libya requested the pilots in its tiny air force, Libya evidently had cooperated augmentation of a small Pakistani advisory contingent which had been training Libyans on transport aircraft and heli- closely with Egypt in arranging the deal, inasmuch as Cairo copters for some two years. The total number of Pakistani had been trying unsuccessully to procure Mirages at least since early 1968. 159 advisers grew to about 600, including between 20 and 40 pilots. Besides the Pakistanis, a small number of French, For the next several years, the Soviets kept a low Italian, and Yugoslav instructors also were reported to be present in the country. 163 profile in Libya. When the October 1973 war erupted, Libya made a substantial contribution to the Arab cause in the While the saturation point of the small Libyan armed form of financial assistance and equipment transfers. Libya force had been reached by early 1974, according to quali- was reported to have provided some $500 million in support fied observers, Libyan Prime Minister Jalloud was reported for the war effort, including the financing of 70 replace- to be seeking additional military equipment from Western ment MIG-21's and other equipment for Egypt and Syria. European countries. Unsuccessful in this attempt, among Despite vehement denials at the time, Libya subsequently other reasons because of Libya's support of dissident move- acknowledged the participation of some of its Mirages in the ments in Northern Ireland, the Philippines, Ethiopia, and war. These aircraft evidently were flown by other Arab elsewhere, 164 Libya had little choice but to again approach pilots, inasmuch as only 25 Libyan pilots were then qualified to fly the 100 Mirages in the inventory. 160 Moscow, despite Qadhafi's continued antipathy toward the Soviets. During Prime Minister Jalloud's first visit to Moscow in May 1974, an overall trade agreement was concluded Meanwhile, a rift that began during the October con- which included the Soviet supply of SAM missiles and other flict between Qadhafi and Sadat over the latter's handling arms in exchange for Libyan oil. 165 It will be noted that of the war grew increasingly bitter. Qadhafi subsequently this accord was concluded shortly after Moscow's suspension condemned Sadat's willingness to engage in negotiations of arms shipments to Egypt, following steadily deteriorating toward a peace settlement, repeatedly advocating a renewed relations with Cairo. The strain in relations with Egypt war to destroy Israel. The feud finally degenerated into a probably made it easier for the Soviet leadership to paper series of personal accusations and counter-accusations between the two Arab leaders. 161 Cairo ended its close mili- over existing differences with Qadhafi and come to a modus vivendi with him. tary cooperation by abruptly withdrawing all Egyptian pilots from Libya, as well as the SAM equipment and two naval craft Another large Soviet arms agreement was reported to that Egypt had loaned to that country. The Egyptians also have been concluded in December 1974. In addition to TU-22 ceased work on the air defense system it had been building around Libyan bases at Tobruk, Benghazi, and Tripoli. 162 supersonic bombers (thus far provided only to Iraq), MI-8 helicopters, SA-3 and SA-6 SAM missiles, tanks, and anti- tank missiles, the deal evidently included advanced MIG-23 Floggers, the first 13 of which were delivered in early May 159 New York Times, January 24, 1970 and July 23, 1970. 1975, shortly before the visit to Libya of Soviet President Alexei Kosygin. 166 160 Military Aviation News, May 1974, p. 20. 161 Sketch, September 13, 1974, p. 13. 163 Ibid. 162 Washington Post, February 18, 1974. 164 Ibid. 165 Washington Post, May 21, 1974 and October 20, 1974. 166 Military Aviation News, March 1975, p. 17, and May 1975, p. 17. -40- -41- By that time, the number of Soviet military advisers tween Libya and Egypt, which had reached the stage of a bitter and technicians in Libya had more than doubled to about 480 personal feud between Qadhafi and Sadat. Observers express- over the 200 present a year before. The Soviets were ed doubt in particular over the alleged agreement to establish reportedly providing training on SAM's, antitank missiles, Soviet bases, citing Qadhafi's public opposition to any such and T-62 tanks for Libyan personnel and serving as advisers facilities in the Mediterranean area. 171 in Libyan artillery and armored units. Soviet personnel reportedly also were operating SAM equipment around key Moscow denied Egyptian press reports of an agreement installations in the country. Increasing friction between for bases in Libya in the form of an article in Pravda, Soviet and Libyan personnel was reported to have led to which harshly rebuked A1 Ahram, "a newspaper for an Arab state pressure on Qadhafi by Libyan officers to expe1 the Soviets, friendly to the Soviet Union," for publishing such accounts. but Qadhafi apparently was unwilling to reduce the Soviet The Soviet newspaper did not deny reports of a new arms deal presence while delivery contracts remained in effect. 167 with Libya, but ridiculed the figure of $12 billion as "quite a statement. 1,172 Qadhafi was driven into an even tighter relationship with Moscow by the British government's refusal in April 1975 A "Libyan spokeman" in Cairo in early June reportedly to sell six submarines and 38 Jaguar advanced strike air- placed the value of the arms accord at $800 million, a vast craft. London was willing to sell other items on Libya's deal in itself for a country of two million people, but $1.4 billion shopping list transport aircraft, frigates, provided no further details. 173 Shortly thereafter, Qadhafi tank transporters, ammunition, and support equipment -- but publicly scoffed at reports of a multibillion deal with was unwilling to risk upsetting the military balance in the Moscow or of Libyan acquiescence in the use of Libyan base area by including the sensitive submarines and fighter facilities by the Soviets. "We deal with the Soviet Union aircraft. 168 The all-or-nothing demands of the Qadhafi on a commercial and not an ideological basis," he stated. 174 regime resulted in the collapse of negotiations. Definitive information on the May 1975 arms accord is Following the Kosygin visit to Libya in May, the still sparse. Western officials believe the arrangement semiofficial Egyptian newspaper, A1 Ahram, reported the includes an increase to 1,000 tanks from the 600 reportedly conclusion of a huge new Soviet arms deal valued at $4 ordered in 1974. 175 In addition, six F-class diesel sub- billion with Libya, in return for the use of military bases. 169 Egyptian President Sadat, in an interview with marines are included, as well as assistance in the rebuilding of World War II submarine servicing and repair facilities at the Los Angeles Times, put an even higher figure of $12 the Libyan ports of Tobruk and Benghazi. About 100 Libyan billion on the value of the accord. 170 Foreign observers naval personnel are reported to have gone to the Soviet speculated, however, that the Egyptian reports may have Union for submarine training, while the number of Soviet been a spin-off of the increasingly vehement polemics be- 167 New York Times, February 21, 1975. 171 Ibid., May 23, 1975. 168 Washington Post, April 12, 1975. 172 Cited in the New York Times, May 28, 1975. 173 169 Cited in the New York Times, May 23, 1975. Washington Post, June 13, 1975. 174 170 Ibid., July 16, 1975. Ibid., May 29, 1975. 175 New York Times, May 29, 1975. -43- -42- absorb, let alone maintain and operate, the types of modern, military advisers in the country is expected to reach about sophisticated equipment now being delivered or on order. 180 600. 176 Although an effective Libyan submarine capability President Sadat himself has voiced concern that Libya might would be at least several years in the offing, the possibil- use the newly delivered equipment some of which Moscow ity of such a capability in itself 177 is disconcerting to has so far denied him against Egypt. Sadat went on to Western defense specialists. suggest that training the Libyan army to operate the equip- ment reportedly earmarked for it would necessitate a Soviet In another portentous development, Libya and the Soviet presence of 20 to 50 years. 181 Union -- shortly after the visit of Kosygin jointly announced that Moscow would provide Lìbya with the latter's While the full implications of the current Soviet- first nuclear reactor. The 10 megawatt facility would be Libyan relationship are still being debated, it appears used for "peaceful measures only,' as announced by the Libyan that the Soviets are trying to solidify their new foothold news agency. US nuclear experts confirmed that a reactor in Libya, thus putting new pressure on Sadat to repair his of that size could only be used for research purposes, being unravelling ties with Moscow. 182 Although the Soviets too small for the production of sufficient quantities of probably did not acquire military base rights in Libya, plutonium for a weapon. 178 they reportedly did gain access to limited naval use of ports in the country. 183 With the abrupt cancellation of The agreement, nevertheless, served to further exacer- Brezhnev's planned January 1975 visit to Cairo still vividly bate Libyan-Egyptian relations. Referring to the new Soviet in the Egyptian mind, Kosygin's May visit to Tripoli and commitments to Libya, Sadat was quoted as saying that the the resulting new arms agreement probably were intended by supply of "such an arsenal like this raises many questions." Moscow to unsettle Sadat, as well as to recoup some of the Following on the heels of the arms accord, Sadat added that prestige lost at Egypt's hand in the Middle East since early the nuclear agreement "doesn't surprise me at all. 1179 1974. Indeed, the overall motivations behind the May accords remain somewhat puzzling. The arms deal may have been an enlargement of the already sizable December 1974 agreement. 180 Ibid., June 13, 1975. Egyptian officials have disparaged the Libyan capability to 181 New York Times, May 29, 1975. 182 Washington Post, June 3, 1975. 176 Baltimore Sun, June 30, 1975; Washington Post, July 20, 183 1975. Military Aviation News, June 1975, p. 18. 177 Not the least of any resulting problems would be the difficulty of determining the origin of a submarine attack, should any ensue in a crisis situation in the Mediterranean area (see Washington Post, July 20, 1975). 178 Washington Post, June 3, 1975. 179 Ibid. CHAPTER VI -45- FUTURE OF THE PROGRAM What does the future portend for Soviet arms aid in the Middle East, particularly for the currently strained aid Despite some setbacks and frustrations, arms aid on relationship with Egypt? Despite the recent vicissitudes balance is probably still regarded by the Soviet leaders as in Soviet-Egyptian relations and Cairo's probings for US their most effective instrument of policy toward the Arab and Western European arms, it still appears that some type Middle East. Although the net cost of the program has in- of working arrangement will be maintained between Cairo and creased substantially over the past several years, from a Moscow. Both sides have too much at stake to accept a low cost dispensing of obsolescent weapons to provision of complete split. some of the most advanced items in the Soviet inventory, there is little doubt that arms exports have proven a worth- While the Soviet Union has attempted to further cement while political investment from Moscow's point of view. relations with Iraq and Syria and to secure its foothold in Libya, it still regards Egypt as crucial to its Middle East Because of its significant contribution to the strength- policy. To permit the current strain in relations to lead ening and survival of Moscow's Arab clients, the arms aid to a complete rupture between Moscow and Cairo would have program had had extraordinary impact vis-a-vis the Soviet incalculable consequences on the Soviet position in the presence in the area. Fostering an image of the Soviet Union Middle East and elsewhere in the Third World. At the same as a powerful friend and ally of the Arab countries, the time, Egypt, for its part, must realize that it has no program has served as the prime instrument for acquiring practical short-term alternative than to rely on Moscow, at influence in the Arab world, providing Moscow with political least for spare parts for equipment on hand, to maintain a entree into areas where its role had hitherto been limited viable military capability. It would simply require too or nonexistent. much time -- at least five years as a conservative estimate to reequip and retrain the Egyptian forces with modern This is not to say that the program has been a diplo- armaments from another supplier. Consequently, it appears matic panacea for Moscow. It is not apparent, for example, that arms aid -- with suitable fine tuning -- will continue that such aid has enabled the Soviets to exercise leverage as a prime instrument of Soviet foreign policy vis-a-vis for political concessions in the Arab countries. Nor has the Arab states. the aid facilitated the activities of local Communist parties in the area. Moreover, the Soviets have found that their military aid largesse has created a variety of risks and problems. The ready provision of assistance has nurtured a dependence on the part of Moscow's Arab clients, implying a continual obligation on the part of the Soviet Union. Thus becoming identified to some extent with the policies and actions of client states over which it has had little, if any, real control, Moscow has found this situation both embarrassing and dangerous. Reflecting something of Moscow's priorities in the area, Soviet arms supplies to Egypt--despite the virtual suspen- sion of shipments in 1974 -- nearly equal those to the other Arab Middle East countries combined. Iraq and Syria still depend almost exclusively on Soviet equipment, while recent Soviet deliveries to Libya have made that country a major recipient. November 5, 1974 MEMORANDUM TO: COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY FROM: JOHN 0. MARSH, JR. I would appreciate your comments on the attached, please. Thank you. Attachment: Mideast Economic Cooperation FORD is LIBRARY 9E8ALD MIDEAST Economic Cooperation An aggressive program for the involvement of the U.S. Government and business interests in the economic development of the Mideast has great potential to advance a variety of important U.S. economic, political and security interests. For this effort to realize its full potential, however, it should be regional rather than bilateral in scope; should effectively dovetai the efforts of U.S. business and finance with those of the Washington bureaucracy; and should be centered in a single executive agency, in order to provide bureaucratic cohesion and organizational impetus to the program, and to ensure that it is rapidly responsive to national policy. The Marshall Plan's Economic Cooperation Administration provides a good model for such organization. (The principal difference is that in this case investment capital would be regionally generated, with the U.S. providing planning, managerial expertise, and industrial goods.) The analogy to the Marshall Plan would additionally highlight the importance which the Administration assigns to the initiative, and emphasize its historic significance. FORD is LIBRARY EXCERET FROM SECNAV LETTER OF 30 APRIL 1974 TO DIRECTOR OMB (Subject: NEW ADMINISTRATIVE INITIATIVES) R.J. MIDEAST Economic Cooperation An aggressive program for the involvement of the U.S. Government and business interests in the economic develop- ment of the Mideast has great potential to advance a variety of important U.S. economic, political and security interests. For this effort to realize its full potential, however, it should be regional rather than bilateral in scope; should effectively dovetail the efforts of U.S. business and finance with those of the Washington bureaucracy; and should be centered in a single executive agency, in order to provide bureaucratic cohesion and organizational impetus to the program, and to ensure that it is rapidly responsive to national policy. The Marshall Plan's Economic Cooperation Administration provides a good model for such organization. (The principal difference is that in this case investment capital would be regionally generated, with the U.S. providing planning, managerial expertise, and industrial goods.) The analogy to the Marshall Plan would additionally highlight the importance which the Administration assigns to the initiative, and emphasize its historic significance. FORD LEBRARY MEMORANDUM 5298 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL November 6, 1974 MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN MARSH FROM: Jeanne W. Davis SUBJECT: Requests for Comments on Middle East Economic Development In response to your request for NSC staff comments on the attached, it is difficult for us to evaluate the "MIDEAST Economic Cooperation" proposal without knowing the overall context into which this statement might go. However, we have the following preliminary comments: - In our foreign policy initiatives in the Middle East, we are keenly aware of the potential for an expanded US role in Middle East development. - - - For this purpose, the US has entered into a series of Joint Commissions with a range of Middle Eastern nations in order to expand and develop opportunities in the economic field. State, Treasury and other economic bodies within the Government are carefully developing the framework of the Joint Commission network throughout the Middle East, in a way which complements the peace- making process. - In view of this, any initiative along the lines of the attached should be submitted to the Under Secretaries Committee in charge of the Joint Commissions so that it can be put in the perspective of our foreign and economic interests in the highly complex Middle East negotiating situation. -As a particular comment, it is worth noting that mention of the "Marshall Plan" evokes memories of a time when the US was able to provide massive aid. The thrust of our policy today is to build a framework for cooperation which links US technology with foreign funds. If the attached is a suggestion from a private citizen, we would be willing to clear on an appropriate letter of reply addressing the concerns expressed in this statement. LIBRARY MIDEAST Economic Cooperation An aggressive program for the involvement of the U.S. Government and business interests in the economic development of the Mideast has great potential to advance a variety of important U.S. economic, political and security interests. For this effort to realize its full potential, however, it should be regional rather than bilateral in scope; should effectively dovetail the efforts of U.S. business and finance with those of the Washington bureaucracy; and should be centered in a single executive agency, in order to provide bureaucratic cohesion and organizational impetus to the program, and to ensure that it is rapidly responsive to national policy. The Marshall Plan's Economic Cooperation Administration provides a good model for such organization. (The principal difference is that in this case investment capital would be regionally generated, with the U.S. providing planning, managerial expertise, and industrial goods. ) The analogy to the Marshall Plan would additionally highlight the importance which the Administration assigns to the initiative, and emphasize its historic significance. COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500 SECRET NOV 15 1974 MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN 0. MARSH, JR. SUBJECT: Mid-East Economic Cooperation In your November 5 memorandum you requested our comments on an attached draft paper, entitled "Mideast Economic Cooperation." This draft argued that: (1) greater U.S. government and business involvement in the economic development of the Mid-East is highly desirable; (2) the thrust of the U.S. effort in this direction should be regional rather than bilateral in scope; (3) it should be centered within a single executive agency; and lastly (4), the ECA of the Marshall Plan would provide a good organizational and con- ceptual model. Our reaction is as follows: There is, of course, a major effort already under way in this area. One way in which the USG has attempted to restructure its economic relation with the Mid-Eastern countries is through a series of joint bilateral cooperation commissions operating at the Cabinet level. Any further moves on our part to establish major, new institutional arrangements before significant substantive progress is achieved could be counterproductive. They would at best further inflate expectations and at worst lend credence to the charge that we are trying to divert attention from substance to form. Although the present setup may be adequate in the short run, what is required is clarification and institutionalization of current arrangements for backstopping our Mid-East initiatives. To some degree this should emerge from the NSDM #278 exercise on Joint Commissions. In the long run there might be a number of advantages in centralizing our Mid-East initiatives within a single executive agency. However, the short run is crucial, and in the short run this would only add to the confusion. A regional approach to Mid-Eastern economic development might well generate greater resource demands on the USG than the current series of bilateral initiatives to Mid-Eastern countries. SECRET 121 DTDD,1/14/86 Page 2 SECRET(GDS) The ECA approach in Europe was predicated on a number of factors not operative in the Mid-East. -- Europe was an area of paramount concern, now we profess worldwide economic responsibilities. Other regional areas have also been presidentially designated as high priority, e.g., Latin America (NSDM #257). -- Europe could create a reasonably harmonious regional organization (the OEC) for us to work with and through. -- The task was reconstruction, a far easier one than initial economic development. Overall, it is not clear yet that the Mid-East nations have a common goal, other than pricing of oil. In fact, there are indications each nation has different goals. Some other comments: -- Development of new industries in the Mid-East without markets may bring import restrictions from other nations. -- It is important in the short run to see that our policies in each separate bilateral commission are consistent. WILLIAM D. EBERLE Executive Director Attachment SECRET(GDS) m 963 INCLASSIFIE 0*******S COPY OP IMMED /ROUTINE DE RUGMAD #6735 3251125 0 R 2110532 NOV 74 FM USIS/TEL AVIV TO USINFO WASHOC IMMEDIATE SECSTATE WASHOC IMMEDIATE NSC WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO AMEMBASSY ALGIERS AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS AMEMBASSY AMMAN AMEMBASSY BEIRUT AMEMBASSY CAIRO USMISSION GENEVA AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY TUNIS AMCONSUL JERUSALEM AMEMBASSY JIDDA USIS/LONDON USMISSION USUN NEW YORK DIA WASHOO UNCLAS TEL AVIV 6736 USIAC USINFO FOR IOP/M, IPS, 385, INE BEIRUT FOR VOA AND RAPA ROME FOR VOA GENEVA FOR MEPC DEL USINFO FOR PRESIDENT'S PARTY IMMEDIATE E 0 11852: N/A SUBJ: MEDIA REACTION (229/74) 21 NOV 74 1. SUMMARY: UNDERSECRETARY SISCO'S CLARIFICATIONS L ON PLO AND PROSPECTS OF PEACE NEGOTIATIONS IN MIDDLE EAST ARE MAJOR MEDIA TOPICS, MAARIV EDIOTORIAL DESCRIBES " TONGUE SLIPS" AND THEIR RETRACTIONS AS " MOST ORIGINAL POLITICAL TACTIC" WHICH SENIOR US OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN USING IN HANDLING PALESTINIAN SUBJECT. AL HAMISHMAR REPORTS FONMIN ALLON SAID THAT SISCO'S CLARIFICATION LIBRARY GERALD ? FORD *WHSR COMMENT ADANCE TEAM, JANKA PSN:013750 PAGE 01 TOR:325/13:12Z DTG:211053Z NOV 74 *******U N CLASSIFIE 0*******3 COPY 0000000SS5555500000 LASSIFIE 0*******S COPY SAVED HIM PROTEST TO STATE DEPARTMENT. DAVAR(ESHED) SAYS SADAT-FEISAL INTRANSIGENCE-- AND NOT ISRAELI SHORTSIGHTEDNESS-- OBSTRUCTED ISRAELI-JORDANIAN PEACE AGREEMENT. HAARETZ US CORRESPONDENT REPORTS: (A) ISRAEL WILL PROTEST SYRIAN BREACH OF PROMISE MADE TO DR. KISSINGER TO PREVENT TERRORIST ACTIVITIES FROM ITS TERRITORY; AND (B) us IS CONCERNED THAT EGYPT MIGHT REFUSE TO OPEN CANAL BEFORE ADDITIONAL IDF WITHDRAWAL IN SINAI. HAARETZ AND MAARIV TALK ABOUT DIFFICULTIES IN US-ISRAEL ECONOMIC NEGOTIATIONS AND MENTION POSSIBILITY THAT FINANCE MINISTER RABINOWITZ'S XCHEDULED TRIP TO US MIGHT BE DELAYED. S-JAPANESE COMMUNIQUE RECEIVED WIDE COVERAGE ALL MEDIA; EMPHASIS ON AGREEMENT TO COOPERATE ON OIL AFFAIRS. PRESS AND RADIO HIGHLIGH FONMIN ALLONIS APPEAL THAT US=USSR DETENT EXTEND TO MIDDLE EAST AS WELL. END SUMMARY. 2. UNDERSECRETARY SISCO'S CLARIFICATIONS ON PLO (A) ALL MEDIA COMPARE SISCO'S CLARIFICATIONS ON PLO TO HIS ORIGINAL STATEMENT (USIA INTERVIEW). JERUSALEM POST AND DAVAR CORRESPONDENTS IN WASHINGTON CARRY SISCO'S REPLY TO THEIR QUESTIONS THAT THERE IS NO CHANGE IN US POLICY TOWARD PLO. ONE RADIO REPORTER REMARKED THAT BY MAKING ORIGINAL STATEMENT ON PLO, SISCO PLEASED THE PALESTINIANS KNOWING THAT HE CAN LATER MAKE CLARIFICATIONS THAT WILL SATISFY ISRAEL. (B) MAARIV EDITORIALIZES: " ON THE DELICATE AND COMPLEX SUBJECT OF PALESTINIANS, THE US HAS ADOPTED A MOST ORIGINAL POLITICAL TACTIC. SENIOR US OFFICIALS ARE FLOATING TRIAL BALLONS THROUGH 'TONGUE SLIPS! AND RETRACTIONS, WE ARE VERY CONCERNED THAT ALL THESE MISUNDERSTANDINGS AND TONGUE SLIPS' ARE NOT INCIDENTAL. BUT RATHER INTENDED.. SISCO'S CLARIFICATION IS NOT ENOUGH. ISRAELI POLITICIANS SHOULD ACT TO PREVENT AN EROSION IN US POSITION ON PALESTINANS... (LEST) THE FREQUENT !TONGUE SLIPS! ARE AIMED AT PAVING THE WAY FOR SUCH A CHANGE.. (C) AL HAMISHMAR WRITES:". IN ANSWER TO A QUESTION, FONMIN ALLON SAID THAT UNDER SICRETARY SISCO'S CLARIFICATION HEADED OFF A STRONG PROTEST TO STATE DEPARTMENT REGARDING SISCO'S (EARLIER) REMARKS ON THE PLO. PAPER QUOTES ALLON: # I PERFER TO ACCEPT THE AMENDMENT AND (THEN) HOLD THE US TO THIS INTERPRETATION. FORD 3. TERRORIST TARACKS (A) HAARETZ US CORRESPONDENT (MARGALIT) REPORTS: FOLLOWING THE ANNOUNCEMENT MADE BY POFLP SPOKESMAN IN DAMASCUS... GERALD LIBRARY REGARDING THE ATTACK ON BEIT SHEAN, ISRAEL WILL PROTEST THE SYRIAN BREACH OF THE DISENGAGEMENT AGREEMENT. (THIS BREACH) IS IN CONTRADICTION TO THE PROMISE WHICH SYRIA MADE TO DR, KISSINGER TO PREVENT TERRORIST ACTIVITIES FROM ITS TERRITORY... PSN:013750 PAGE 02 TOR:325/13:12Z DTG#2110532 NOV 74 N CLASSIFIE 0*******S COPY LASSIFIE 0*******5 COPY THIS WAS A SECRET PROMISE AND DR. KISSINGER NEVER ADMITTED THAT HE HAS RECEIVED SUCH A PROMISE..." (B) JERUSALEM POST REPORTS:JORDANIAN TROOPS WERE YESTERDAY STILL LAYING SEIGE TO THE VILLAGE OF ZAMILYE, NEAR THE ISRAELI BORDER FACING THE BEISAN (VALLEY), IN SEARCH FOR COLLABORATORS OF THE TERRORISTS WHO COMMITTED THE OUTRAGE IN BEIT SHEAN ON TUESDAY." 4. ISREALI- EGYPTIAN NEGOTIATIONS HAARETZ (MARGALIT) WRITES: THERE IS INCREASED CONCERN IN THE US THAT EGYPT MIGHT INSIST ON AN ADDITIONAL ID FWITHDRAWAL IN SINAI BEFORE OPENING THE CANAL.. KISSINGER PROMISED DINITZ LAST WEEK TO CLARIFY EGYPT'S POSITION. THE FOLLOWING PICTURE EMERGES: KISSINGER OBTAINED TWO PROMISES FROM EGYPT ( ISRAEL HAS ACCEPTED HIS METHOD OF OBTAINING PROMISES):(A) WHEN CANAL REOPENS, ISRAELI CARGOES WILL BE PERMITTED; AND (B) EGYPT WILL START CLEARING CANAL AND REHABILITATE ITS VILLAGES AFTER DISENGAGEMENT AGREEMENT. EGYTP, HOWEVER, HAS NOT SPECIFIED A DATE FOR RE-OPENING CANAL... SOME ISRAELI SOURCES CLAIM THAT THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL PROBLEM INVOLVED OVER THIS ISSUE, (SINCE) CANAL WILL NOT BE READY FOR NAVIGATION BEFORE MARCH/ APRIL, 1975. ISRAELI-EGYPTIAN NEGOTIATIONS FOR A SECOND PHASE OF WITHDRAWAL CAN START (BEFORE THEN) coeAS PRACTICAL IDF WITHDRAWAL FROM SINAI CANNOT BE IMPLEMENTED BEFORE THAT DATE ANY WAY... WRITER RECALLS REMARK MADE BY AN ISRAELI ELEMENT ON POSSIBILITY THAT CANAL RE-OPENING AND IDF WITHDRAWAL WILL BE IMPLEMENTED SIMULTANEOUSLY, 5. ISRAELI-JORDANIAN NEGOTIATIONS DAVAR (ESHED) DISAGREES " WITH THOSE WHO, SINCE ARAFAT MADE HIS DEBUT AT UNGA, HAVE BEEN FEELING SORRY OVER LOST OPPORTUNITIES TO CONCLUDE PEACE AGREEMENT WITH HUSSEIN. ESHED NOTES:", THERE ARE THOSE WHO MOURN BECAUSE ISRAEL HAS NOT CONCLUDED AN AGREEMENT WITH HUSSEIN, AND THERE ARE THOSE WHO MOURN BECAUSE OF ISRAEL'S LACK OF COOPERATION IN HELPING EMERGENCE OF LOCAL PALESTINIAN LEADERSHIP THEY BOTH FORGET THE BASIC ASSUMPTION.. THAT NO ARAB ELEMENT IS CAPABLE OF DETACHING ITSELF FROMTHEREST OF THE ARAB WORLD, NO MATTER HOW WEAK ITS CONNECTIONS ARE WITH ARAB COUNTRIES, AND CONCLUDE A SEPARATE ARRANGEMENT WITH ISRAEL.. HUSSEIN'S HOPES TO RECOVER THE WEST BANK WERE DIMMED BY EGYPT FEISAL DECISION TO WITHDRAW HUSSEIN'S MANDATE ON PALESTINIAN REPRESENTATION. FEISAL'S POSITON ON JERUSALEM OBSTRUCTED CHANCES FOR SEPARATE ISRAELI-JORDANIAN NEGOTIATIONS. IT IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR FEISAL TO RECOVER JERUSALEM. THAN TO OBSTRUCT SOVIET PENETRATION INTO THE AREA UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES, THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE FOR ISRAEL. ASIDE BERRLD FORD LIBRARY FROM CAUTIOUS MOVEMENT IN ITS (SIMULTANEOUS) CONFRONTATION WITH THE ARAB WORLD STAEP-BY-STEP UNTIL THE PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED, THERE WILL BE NO DECISION ON THE PALESTINIAN- PSN:013750 PAGE 03 TOR:325/13:122 DTG:211053Z NOV 74 N CLASSIFIE D*******S COPY INCLASSIFIE D*******S COPY JORDANIAN ISSUE.. BEFORE ADDITIONAL PROGRESS ON THE ISRAELI- EGYPTIAN FRONT IS MADE..." 6. PRESIDNET FORD'S TALKS IN JAPAN: US-USSR SUMMIT ALL MEDIA HIGHLIGHTED FOREIGN CORRESPONDENTS REPORTS ON PRESIDENT'S TALKS IN JAPAN AND TEXT OF US-JAPANESE COMMUNIQUE, IN AN APPEAL AIMED AT FORTHCOMING SOVIET AMERICAN TALKS AT VLADIVOSTOK, FONMIN ALLON REPORTEDLY URGED FORD AND BREZHNEV TO EXTEND THEIR 'DETENTE' TO MIDDLE EAST AS WELL. ALLON SAID THAT ISRAEL SUPPORTS REAL AND HONEST DETENTE THAT WOULD COVER ALL PARTS OF THE WORLD NOT ONLY US, USSR AND EUROPE. 7. US-ISRAELI ECONOMIC TALKS MAARIV REPORTS: " FINANCE MINISTER RABINOWITZ'S CHEDULED TRIP TO US MIGHT BE POSTPONED UNLESS AMERICANS COME UP WITH NEW PROPOSALS THAT WOULD RESOLVE THE DIFFICULTIES WHICH ERUPTED INT EH TALKS.. TREASURY SOURCES CONFIRMED THAT DIFFICULTIES EXIST OVER A NUMBER OF CLAUSES. INCLUDING US ASSISTANCE IN SENDING GRAINS AND FINANCING ISRAELI PURCHASES IN US. MOSS BT BERALO FORD LIBRABY PSN:013750 PAGE 04 OF 04 TOR:325/13:12Z DTG:2110532 NOV 74 N CLASSIFIE D*******S COPY o 961 SECREP *******S COPY OP IMMED Determined to be an administrative marking DE WTE #3992 2091840 Cancelled per E.O. 12356, Sec. 1.3 and 0 2818332 JUL 75 Archivist's memo of March 16, 1983 FM JACK MARSH By ROAD NARS date 1/14/86 TO DICK CHENEY (WARSAW) SECRET WH51350 JULY 28, 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR: DICK CHENEY FROM: JACK MARSH JUST PRIOR TO LEAVING, THE PRESIDENT TALKED ON THE PHONE WITH SENATOR CASE IN REFERENCE TO THE ARMS SALES TO JORDAN. IT WAS AGREED THAT WE WOULD GET BACK TO CASE WITH GUIDANCE ON MONDAY, BEFORE THE COMMITTEE MET. I SUGGEST YOU COMMUNICATE WITH BRENT AND GET BACK TO ME AT EARLIEST INASMUCH AS WE HAVE HAD INQUIREIES FROM THE SENATOR TODAY ON THIS MATTER. 0100 LIBRARY GERALD ? FORD PSN:009717 PAGE 01 OF 01 TOR:209/18:40Z DTG:281833Z JUL 75 SECRET *******S COPY 0 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Determined to be an administrative marking Cancelled per E.O. 12356, Sec. 1.3 and Archivist's memo of March 16, 1983 July 28, 1975 By 2000 NARS date 1/14/86 MEMORANDUM FOR: DICK CHENEY FROM: JACK MARSI July Just prior to leaving, the President talked on the phone with Senator Case in reference to the arms sales to Jordan. It was agreed that we would get back to Case with guidance on Monday, before the Committee met. I suggest you communicate with Brent and get back to me at earliest inasmuch as we have had inquiries from the Senator today on this matter. GERALD LIBRANY FORD SECRET 992 ******* SECREP- *******S COPY OP IMMED DE WTE #3995 2092117 Determined to be an administrative marking Cancelled per E.O. 12356, Sec. 1.3 and 0 282120Z JUL 75 Archivist's memo of March 16, 1983 FM JACK MARSH By DAD NARD date 1/17/86 TO DICK CHENEY (WARSAW) SECRET WH51353 JULY 28, 1975 FROM: JACK MARSH TO: DICK CHENEY YOU CAN DISREGARD MY REQUEST FOR AN ANSWER FOR SENATOR CASE. I HAVE FOUND OUT WHAT I NEEDED TO KNOW. 0061 FORD is LIBRARY 07V835 PSN:009860 PAGE 01 OF 01 TOR:209/21:17Z DTG:282120Z JUL 75 *******S COPY 0 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL THE WHITE HOUSE M WASHINGTON August 18, 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR: BRENT SCOWCROFT RKW for Jom THROUGH: JOHN O. MARSH FROM: VERN LOEN VL SUBJECT: Congressional Visit with President Sadat on August 9, 1975 It was my privilege to take detailed notes on an hour-long meeting between President Sadat and eight Members of Congress at Mr. Sadat's Mediterranean Coastal retreat on the above date. Participating members were Sen. Dale Bumpers, D-Ark.; and Reps. William J. Randall, D-Ark.; Ralph S. Regula, R-Ohio; Marvin Esch, R-Mich.; Roy A. Taylor, D-N.C.; Edwin Eschleman and William Goodling, both R. -Pa. and Robert Eckhardt, D. -Texas. President Sadat responded candidly to questions posed by each Member. Being aware of the delicate negotiations underway, each Member was extremely careful to pose his question tactfully and with the understanding none was there to negotiate-simply to develop facts in their roles as voting Members of Congress. Mr. Sadat's responses, which were taped, follow: "My main concern is peace. Ours is a backward country. I want to concentrate on our plan for economic development to the year 2000. Go ahead and inspect our military facilities. Those airplane dugouts cost 150,000 pounds apiece. This is wasteful. "Israel exhibits belligerency toward Egypt. With peace, all will be very.bright. "I discussed our problems with President Ford at Salzburg. I asked the help of the U.S. and its allies, especially in regard to our need for liquidity. "President Ford is a straightforward, honest man. It has been a new era since November, 1973, when I first met Secretary Kissinger. GERMLO S. FORD VIBERRY - 2 - "Egypt represents between 1/3 and 1/2 of the Arab World. You have more interests in the hands of the Arabs than the Israelis. They must be convinced to take the road to peace, stop their military buildup. I'm not afraid of peace -- Israel is afraid of peace. There can be no war without Egypt. SOVIET ROLE: "The Soviets still misunderstand why I sent their experts out of the country in July, 1972, resulting in a cutoff of Soviet military aid. In 1974 we decided to diversify our arms sources. I am not worried about economic aid. The time may come when I ask for arms from the United States - - will you agree to sell me arms? (No answer from Congressmen.) "I shall always fight to be independent, but please don't worsen my position with the Soviets. Ninety per cent of my arms are Russian. Therefore, the Soviets still provide air training personnel; then they leave. U. S. ROLE: "After the '67 war we had confrontation with you because of the ugly face of Lyndon Johnson. President Ford & Dr. Kissinger now show the real face of America as a big brother--not a world policeman. REQUIREMENTS FOR PEACE: "Israel should withdraw from our lands occupied after the '67 war. For 27 years the Israeli propaganda says Arabs say no to everything- not for peace. "I declared publicly that I was ready for peace with Israel in 1971. This is the turning point right now. I started by opening the Suez Canal and releasing the refugees. "After 27 years of belligerency, hatred, violence and blood, we cannot normalize relationships in a month. They can't start shopping in Cairo tomorrow. Let's try in our generation. End the present atmosphere formally. This will lead to other steps. "Israel is using our land as a wedge for bargaining. I tell them they must withdraw--they are negotiating every inch. "As much as Israel is suspicious, we are suspicious, too. We also want guarantees. Israel is hesitant and confused. They should withdraw from the Sinai. Let the United States and USSR or Security Council give us guarantees. "If Israel gives back my lands, we will negotiate at Geneva under auspices of the two superpowers. They started three of the four wars. There must be a reciprocal approach. "Israel is afraid of peace because of weak leadership, weak government. - 3 - It is playing for time, looking to the U.S. elections next year. They expect the U.S. to take no major foreign policy action in 1976, as is your custom in an election year. 11 Afterwards, President Sadat posed obligingly for individual photographs, even with junior staff members. The Egyptians hosted a luncheon on a veranda overlooking the beach. Transportation for the two-hour journey from Cairo was provided by means of two Russian-built transports that are part of the Egyptian Air Force. On the evening of August 8, the Congressional delegation, accompanied by staff, held a similar discussion in Cairo with members of the People's Assembly, led by the deputy Speaker. Ambassador Eilts was in the United States on his peace mission. Mrs. Eilts hosted a reception on August 9 at their home (guest list of 240 attached). SUMMARY: It was the guarded concensus of the Congressmen that President Sadat is a genuine, straightforward world leader of imposing stature. They were most reassured by his candid views and expressed desire for peace, in contrast to the carefully orchestrated Israeli propaganda approach and the stolidly militant aura of that nation. However, I doubt that many of them will be very vocal in their assessments for fear of the Jewish reaction back home. cc: Max Friedersdorf Les Janka Don Ogilvie (OMB) ECEPTION AT THE RESIDENCE OF AMBASSADOR & MRS. EILTS In honor of the Flonorable John M, Maury Assistant Secretary of Defense for Legislative Affairs and Members of the Congressional Delegation Saturday, August 9, 1975 - 7:30 to 9:30 p.m. P. Host and Hostess The Honorable John M, Maury The Honorable Dale 3umpers and Mr. Bumpers The Honorable William J. Randall and Mrs. Randall If Codego and Mrs. Hanson The Honorable Ralph S, Regula and Mrs. Regula The Honorable Marvin Esch and Mrs, Esch The Honorable Roy A, Taylor and Mr:. Taylor The Honorable Edwin Eschleman and Mrs. Eschleman The Honorable William F. Goodling and Mrs. Goodling The Honorable Robert Eckhardt and M rs. Eckhardt The Henerable James 6, Comman Mr. Michael Finlay Mr, Michael Van Dusen Mr. Peter Collins Mr. Vernon Loan Ms. Mildred Ward Miss Nancy Berg Mr. Donald Sanders Col. Charles Hammond Mrs. Nancy Wooldridge It, Col. Michael Rhode Lt, Col, Charles Wollerton Lt. Col. Keith K. Hunt Mr. William Rosemund FORD LIBRARY Diplomatic Missions His Excellency the Ambassador of Canada and Mrs, Touchette His Excellency the Ambassador of Federal Germany and Mrs. Stritzer His Excellency the Ambassador of Great Britain and Lady Adams Ambassador and Mrs. Wee D 322 Chang - Consul General of South Korea His Excellency the Ambassador of Spit n and Mrs. Alabart (Revised page 1) 2 The Presidency Mr. Tahsin Beshir - Controller Ger ral of the Press The People's Assembly His Excellency the Speaker and Mrs Marei Dr. and Mrs. Gamal E1 Oleifi - Dep ty Speaker Dr. and Mrs. El Sayed All El Sayed Deputy Speaker Mr, and Mrs. Moheb Stino - Chairn 10, Industry and Power Committee Mr. and Mrs. E1 Husseini Abdel Ra man - Chaisman, Public Utilities Committee Mr. and Mrs. Moustafa Kamel Mou d - Chairman, Economic Committ a Mr. and Mrs. Ahmed Found = Chair an Planning & Budget Committee Mr. and Mrs. Abdel Fattah Moustaf = Chief of Protocol General and Mrs. Abdel Kerim Darwish - (Dr. Laila Takla Member, liducation and Scientific Research Committee The Foreign Relations C numittee Mr. and Mrs. Zakaria Loutfi Gorna: - Chairman Mr, and Mrs. Mohie E1 Din El Shaz Mr. and Mrs. Mansour Mohamed H: isan Mr. and Mrs. Safwat Mohie El Din Mr. and Mrs. Ahmed E1 Demerdast Tount Dr. and Mrs. Roushdi Said The Arab Socialist Union Dr, and Mrs. Rifaat El Mahgoub = I rst Secretary Dr. Zeinab El Sobki - Secretariat for Women's Affairs The Arab League Dr. and Mrs. Sayed Nofal - Assista Secretary for Political Affairs Mr. and Mrs. Mohamed Selim El Y: 11 Assistant Secretary for Inform tion Mr. and Mrs. Mohamed Wahid E1 D. El Dall - Director, Arab Affairs hept. Mr. and Mrs. Abdel Racuf El Ridi = Organizations Dept. Suez Canal Authority Mr. and Mrs. Mashhour Ahmed Ma hour - Director Mr. and Mrs. All Mahmoud - Deput Director Mr. and Mrs. Adel Erzat Director, Engineering Dept. FORD is LIBRARY GERALD Ministry of Economy & Economic Cooperation His Excellency the Minister of Economy & Economic Cooperation and Mrs. Shafel Dr. and Mrs. Ahmed Effat o Coord nator for U.S. Assistance to Egypt Mr. and Mrs. Gamal El Nazer a Undersecretary Mr. and Mrs. Wagih Shindi 9 Undersecretary Dr. and Mrs. Zaki About Nasr - Chief of Cabinat to the Minister Dr. and Mrs. Hamed E1 Sayeh - Chairman, National Bank Mr. and Mrs. Fouad Sultan - President, Misr-Iran Bank Mr. and Mrs. Abdel Moneim El Banna a Deputy Governor, Central Bank Mr. and Mrs. Bahir Onsi a Deputy Chairman, Arab-African Bank Mr. and Mrs. Mohamed El Barbari " Director General, Foreign Depart ment Ministry of Finance His Excellency the Minister of Fina ace and Mrs. Abu Ismail Ministry of Foreign Affairs His Excellency Mohamed Riad, Minster of State for Foreign Affairs Ambassador and Mrs. Mahmoud Abdel Ghaffar - First Undersecretary Ambassador and Mrs. Gamal Mansour = Undersecretary Dr. and Mrs. Ossama El Baz - Chief of Cabinet to the Minister Mr. and Mrs. Hisham Amer a Counselor, Minister's Office Dr. and Mrs. Mountr Zahran - First Secretary, Minister's Office Mr. and Mrs, Mohamed El Baradei c Second Secretary, Minister's Office Mr, and Mrs. Esmat Abdel Halim - First Secretary, USA Desk Mr. Ibrahim El Shuweiai a First Secretary, USA Desk Ministry of Petroleum Mr. and Mrs. Selim Rizkallah - Undersecretary Ministry of Transport Mr. and Mrs. Mahmoud Kamel Moragi - Chairman, General Egyptian Hailways Authority Ministry of War Production Mr. and Mrs. Mohamed Abdel Fattah - Chairman, General Organization for Military Factories & Aviation Industries Dr. and Mrs. Ahmed Salem Mohamed c. Director, General Egyptian Organization for Military Factories & Aviation Industries FORD is LIBRARY OFRALD Ministry of Was Major General and Mrs. Mohamed Khald Assistant to the Minister Mr. and Mrs. Hassan Ahmed El Kateb - Official Military Spokesman It. General and Mrs. Mohamed All Fahni Chief of Staff, ARE ARmed Forces Major General and Mrs. Hassan E1 Greely Chief of Operations Vice Admiral and Mrs. Found Zikri C ARE Naval Forces Air Vice Marshal and Mrs. Mahmoud Shaker Abdel Monetm - Conumander, RE Air Forces Like General and Mrs. Helmi Afifi = Con dander, Air Defense Forces Major General and Mrs. Ibrahim Found Tassax = Director, Military Intellig ice Dept Major General and Mrs. M.H. Shawkat Deputy Director, Military Intellige are Dept. Brigadier General and Mrs. E1 Mo'taz E llah Safa Chief, Military Attachet Branch Capt. and Mrs. Mohamed Mortada El Ta All - Assistant, Military Attaches Branch Squadron Leader and Mrs. A, Ashraf - Elector, Aircraft Clearances, Military Attaches Branch Rear Admiral and Mrs. Aly Osman De:aty Commander, ARE Naval Force Rear Admiral and Mrs. Farouk El Shaik: Rear Admiral and Mrs, Husein Assem F way Maj C General and Mrs. Moustafa H. El lamal Major General and Mrs, Fawzi Abdel Fa Fatah Air Vice Marshal and Mrs. N. Nabih El lesseiry Air Vice Marshal and Mrs. Badie Waffal: M. Gabra Egyptian Press Mr. and Mrs, All Hamdi E1 Gammal a E tor in Chief, Al Ahram Mr. and Mrs. Handi Fouad - Director, Diplomatic Section, Al Ahram Mr. and Mrs. Mohsen Mohamed Editor in Chief. Al Gomhouria Mr. and Mrs. Galal El Hamamsi Edito: in Chief, Al Akhbar Miss Maha Abdel Fattah = Diplomatic Co respondent, Al Akhbar Mr. and Mrs, Fomel Lablb - Managing B Biltor, Al Massawar Caire American College Mr. and Mrs, Joseph Kennedy = Superint adent American University Dr. and Mrs. Frank Blanning . Deas of S idente Dr. and Mrs. Thomas Lamont GERALD is. FORD LIBRARY American Firms in Cairo Mr. and M.s. Guenter Neubert = Ch: se Manhattan Bank Mr. and Mrs. J.T. Schulemberg - Clevron Oil Co. of Egypt Mr. and Mrs. John Goodridge - First National City Bank Mr. and Mrs. D.B. Wilkie a Director, FUPCO Mr. and Mrs. Donald Spielman - Mobil Oil Egypt Mr. and Mrs. Mohamed Aboul Ezz Mobil Exploration Foreign Press Mias Libby Bassett - ABC Mr. Gordon Martin - BBC Mr. and Mrs. John Sheehan a CBS Mr. and Mrs. Abdallah Schleifer a MBC Mr. and Mrs. Wilton Wynn 9 Time Magazine Mr, Maurice Guindi - UPI American Embassy The Honorable Frank E. Maestrone and Mrs. Maestrone Mr. and Mrs. Bryce M. Gerlach Mr. and Mrs. Howard Russell Brigadier General and Mrs. LeRoy V, Svendsen Capt. and Mrs. Peter Block Col. and Mrs. William Graham Col. and Mrs. William Dolam Mr. Wilbert Templeton Mr. and Mrs. Edward Peck Mr. and Mrs. John Craig Miss April Glaspie Mr. Whitley Bruner Mr. Thomas Murphy Mr. and Mrs. D. Ford Brown TOTAL: 240 FORD is LIBRARY 070820 Some items in this folder were not digitized because it contains copyrighted materials. Please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library for access to these materials. A2 THE WASHINGTON POST- Friday, Sept. 13, 1975 RI U.S. Experts 'Starkly Wrong' About 73 Mideast War Data By George Lardner Jr. By then, Cline testified, "My before Oct. 6 failed to turn by Egyptian President Anw Washington Post Staff Writer staff and I had concluded that up any official statement from Sadat, In addition, Cline said U.S. intelligence experts hostilities probably were im- any office or committee re- under the so -called detent were "starkly wrong" about minent" and drew up a draft sponsible for producing fin- treaties, the Soviet. Union was the imminence of the 1973 war memo to that-effect. He said ished, analytical intelligence obligated to consult with the in the Middle East that led to he asked that Kissinger be no- which contributed anything United States on threats to the Arab oil boycott, the tified that we had reached resembling a warning" as peace. House intelligence committee this "conclusion" but learned such. Rep. Morgan F. Murphy later that night that the State The study" found that "in- disclosed yesterday. III.) said be thought this secretariat. and stead of warnings the Com- pretty dangerous The WashingtonStar. Friday, Suptember 12, 1975 Kissinger, Aides Hit on 1973 War United Press International pendents from Egypt and ed channels of communica- A former intelligence Syria two days before the row sphere." He recom- tion that existed under mended no one man should official says he tried to tell attack. Other evidence- be- President Richard M. be allowed to hold both Secretary of State Henry A. fore the committee indicat- Nixon and Kissinger, who Kissinger that war in the ed the Defense Intelligence Kissinger's jobs simultane- was - and still is - both ously. Middle East was imminent Agency correctly predicted Secretary of State and the in 1973 but Kissinger aides! the attack three days in ad- Cline, a professional President's chief national THE NEW YORK TIMES, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 Signs of 1973 Mideast War Eluded U.S. Spy Agencies By NICHOLAS M. HORROCK fensive across the canal and in The report, maintained that The tommittee has sought, Special to The New York Times the Golan Heights area." "certain substantive precon- first by. letter and Later by WASHINGTON, Sept. II- The report of the committee, ceptions (deletion) turned the subpoena, materials given to The United States intelligence which is charged with advising analyst's attention principally Presidents Johnson and Nixon community acknowledges that the National Security council toward political indications that on four major recent crises, it failed to predict the 1973 on war and critical situations, the Arabs were bent on finding including the 1973 Arab-Israeli Arab-sraeli war and that sev- went on to note, "It is possible non-violent menas to achieve war, the 1968 Communist Tet eral intelligence agencies even that the Egyptians or Syrians, their objectives and away from offensive in South Vietnam, the predicted that there would be particularly the latter, may indications (mainly military) to Cyprus crisis and the recent no war only hours before the have been preparing a raid or the contrary." revolution in Portugal. hostilities broke out, according other small-scale action." Maj. Gen. Howard P. Smith, Representative Otis G. Pike, to a secret report made public The committee met, its report an Air Force officer in charge Democrat of Suffolk County today. said, at "0900 on 6 October of the. Pentagon agency's and the committee chairman, The report represents the 1973," which was a few hours analytical section, said that complained today that the Ad-1 first public admission by the before the attack. three analysts had been trans- ministration had been unwilling intelligence agencies that they In an intelligence summary ferred as a result of the failure. or slow to respond to the com- failed to warn of the war. On dated the same day but pre- The material from the secret mittee's requests. "All we have 30 sumably prepared THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, Friday, September 12, 1975. 1 What's News- World-Wide No U.S. intelligence agency unequivo- cally predicted the October 1973 Mideast war, the House Intelligence Committee was told However the BY director of the State FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE NOVEMBER 5, 1975 OFFICE OF THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS CONFERENCE OF JOSEPH J. SISCO UNDER SECRETARY FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT OF STATE THE BRIEFING ROOM 5:20 P.M. EST MR. NESSEN: As promised, we have Joe Sisco, the Under Secretary of State, to give you a report not only on today's meeting, but since we didn't have anyting on Sunday, Joe is going back over the entire visit and catch you up on the entire visit as well as today's specific meeting. Q Is this on the record? MR. NESSEN: Yes. Q Was it true he thought Chicago was the greatest city in America? MR. SISCO: I might say that we were all impressed, I am saying this on the record, Peter, for obvious reasons, because you are I are native Chicagoans, but it was an impressive show that Mayor Daley put on. It was impressive in every respect. Let me just make a few brief observations and then open the floor to questions. The two Presidents held their final meeting here a moment ago, as you know, after having held meetings earlier in the week here in Washington and likewise in Jacksonville. We consider the visit of President Sadat as important, timely and very useful. First of all, I think the visit strengthened the close personal rapport that was established between the two Presidents initially at their meetings in Salzburg. MORE - 2 - Secondly, we believe the visit gave President Sadat an opportunity to see and know our country and our people better and vice versa, and, therefore, we believe that as a result of the visit country-wide, the opportunity given to the President to address the Joint Session of Congress today, this has contributed to greater understanding between the two Governments. Third, I would say that the principal focus of the discussions between the two Presidents was on the simple question of where we go from here in the Middle Eastern diplomacy. I think it is fair to say that both Governments feel it is important that the process of peace continue with respect to the Middle East and, therefore, there was a substantial amount of the discussion focused on the diplomatic aspects. On our part, we reaffirmed that we are prepared to undertake a serious effort to see whether we can get negotiations started between Syria and Israel. Secondly, we reaffirmed also our intention to continue consultations looking towards the possibility of a renewal of a Geneva Conference. And, third, as indicated by the Secretary of State in his statement before the UN General Assembly, we are also, and continue to be, prepared to explore any other informal meetings to get the process of peace moving once again in the aftermath of the recent Egyptian-Israeli Agreement and while the implementation process of that agreement goes on. A fourth aspect of the visit, we feel that the visit and the talks contributed to a strengthening of the bilateral relationships between the United States and Egypt and in broadening the areas of cooperation between the two Governments. I would cite, in particular, the agreements that were signed earlier in the week -- a health cooperation agreement, a P.L. 480 agreement, an agreement on a museum exhibition, and an agreement on avoiding double taxation between the two countries and today's initialing by the respective Foreign Ministers of an agreement in principle in the areas of peaceful uses of atomic energy. As most of you know, the agreement initialed today is expected to cover cooperation in the fields pertaining to peaceful uses of atomic energy, including design and construction and operation, research and power reactors. I will not go into the details because I think that the statement put out today is self-evident and a full explanation in and of itself. I will take any questions now. MORE - 3 - Q Mr. Sisco, why was there no joint communique issued? MR. SISCO: This question has been asked. I would not candidly attach any significance whatsoever to no joint communique having been issued. We felt and they felt that in view of the number of public statements made by everybody concerned, in view of the fact that the concrete results have all been signed on the basis of the specific agreements that I indicated to you, including the one initialed today, that really primarily what had to be said had really been said either in public statements or in the various announcements. So I would not read any kind of hidden designs that there were any contemplated or expected difficulties with writing a communique. Really, all of you have the concrete results. Q Could I follow that up by asking -- you referred to public statements and there have been some public statements that are a little confusing in that President Sadat before he came here said he was going to ask the U.S. for arms. Today, and most recently, he said, "I did not come here asking for anything." What was the situation and what was the response? MR. SISCO: I think I can answer that very quickly, Marilyn. President Sadat indicated he was not coming here with any shopping list. That is the fact of the matter. The question of arms was discussed in a general way. I think most of you are familiar with what President Sadat has said publicly insofar as his situation is concerned with respect to arms. He has said it in various inter- views. That principally was the focus of the discussion on arms. There were no specific commitments made and there was no specific shopping list to address ourselves to. Q Was there a general agreement to study the matter, or how would you phrase that? MR. SISCO: I would not go beyond what I had to say, Marilyn, other than there was a general discussion of this and no specific commitments were made. Q Well, sir, I would ask you without offending you what the President's response was and whether you could project for us the continuing dialogue on arms? MR. SISCO: Well, we have said publicly on a number of occasions that we expected a general discussion of this question to take place. It did. MORE - 4 - We also said even before the visit, and as I am saying after the visit, that no specific commitments have been made, However, obviously this is an issue that in time will have to be addressed and we have said this heretofore. I am not adding anything new but this is really basically where it stands. Q About the atomic reactor, what about that? Will they be getting other supplies and atomic energy from France and other places? MR. SISCO: The question is will they be getting other supplies or other reactors. As you know, what was initiated today was an agreement in principle to cooperate in the field and as part of this cooperation initially what is involved are two power reactors not to exceed in total 1,200 megawatts. That is really what is involved under stringent safeguards. What was initialed today, you should understand, is not actually the agreement. It was really the framework or the setting down of the principles on which a detailed agreement would be signed. It is largely the framework and I think it is important for me to make that point so that there will be no confusion because discussions with respect to the detailed agreement would have to continue. Q Has President Ford accepted in principle President Sadat's invitation to visit Egypt, and what is the outlook for such a visit? MR. SISCO: Well, there isn't anything concrete on that with respect to any specific date. I know that the two Presidents agreed that they would remain in very close contact over the coming weeks and months, but there is nothing specific on any plans. Q Does that mean that President Ford has not accepted the invitation? MR. SISCO: I think there has been and is an interest on the part of the President with respect to a possible visit to Egypt, but the point I am making is that nothing specific was agreed to in this regard. Q There were points of conflict between the two Presidents. President Ford spoke out against the anti-Zionism resolution in the United Nations and President Sadat said some things anti-Jewish and anti-Zion at the National Press Club. Also President Sadat spoke rather intensively on several occasions about support for the Palestinians -- in some cases he mentioned the PLO and in some he didn't. President Ford pointed out what the U.S. policy was about the PLO and its position. How do they resolve these things, or what do they say about them that you can tell us? MORE - 5 - MR. SISCO: Well, first of all with respect to the Zionism matter, I think each side's view is very clear in this regard. You noticed, for example, that President Sadat said in his address before the Congress that there are matters on which views are going to agree or converge and there are other matters where this is not the case. With respect to the position on Zionism as reflected at the UN, I think you are very clear as to what position Egypt has adopted and what position we have adopted. With respect to the second part of your question, the question of the Palestineans, I don't think I can really add to what President Sadat had to say to the Congress. It was very clear as to the nature of the appeal that he made. As far as our position is concerned, one, we have always said that in any durable peace the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinians would have to be taken into account. Insofar as the question of the actual participation of the PLO at any conference, again you know what our position has been. We have felt and continue to feel that the inhibiting factor here is that the PLO has failed to acknowledge and recognize Security Council Resolution 242 and Israel's right to exist. So what it amounts to is that in this regard the Egyptian view is clear and so is the U.S. view and our policy has remained unchanged. MORE - 6 - Q I have two questions. First of all, was it under- stood at the outset of the talks that there would be no communique or was that decided during the visit? And my second question is, what concrete steps are in the making on the American side in order to further any Israeli-Syrian accord? MR. SISCO: We had considered tentatively the question of whether a communique had to be issued but we left it open right from the beginning for determination in the course of the talks and we mutually agreed there was really no need for a communique based on this since we have put out the essential results. I want to be very categoric. We then didn't even address the specifics in any communique and I want to be very clear that the fact that no communique was issued is not to be taken that we started the process and that some huff or some difference arose. We didn't do that. Let me take the second part of the question. With respect to the on-going efforts to achieve negotiations, we are going to review the situation now at the State Department in the light of these talks. As part of that, we have called back our Ambassador from Damascus and we will, as part of that internal consultation, begin -- today is Wednesday, I think probably near the end of this week we will review the situation in the light of these talks. Q What can you say about the efforts to arrange a meeting between President Ford and President Asad while the President is on his European trip? MR. SISCO: There are no immediate plans for such a meeting and, Peter, I would not expect a meeting to take place. Q Mr. Sisco, has the U.S. Government decided what position they will take on the Egyptian resolution in the General Assembly? MR. SISCO: No, in fact I can't say that we have really studied the text. I gather that a resolution has been submitted in the last 24 hours. We will have to give that careful study. Q Is that on Palestinians, too? MR. SISCO: It is basically, Marilyn. I haven't seen the text but basically it is along the lines of what President Sadat indicated in his General Assembly speech. I understand it is a question of the Palestinians participating in a Geneva Conference"on equal footing." As I said, I haven't seen the text and we havenot studied it. MORE - 7 - Q Given the American position on the Palestinians, why does that take study and consideration? MR. SISCO: For one thing, I think it is pretty well for us to look at the text before one decides how one is going to vote, but obviously this text is going to be looked at from the point of view of what American policy is and I hope I have made what American policy is very clear in response to Joe Polakoff's question. Q May I ask you another question about the Suez Canal and free transportation? Is there some statement on the part of Egypt on that?: MR. SISCO: She asked whether she could ask a question with respect to Israel cargoes going through the Suez Canal. My response is that, as all of you know, this question of Israel cargoes going through the Canal was part and parcel of the agreement signed between Egypt and Israel. That principle has been implemented, as you all know. Q Mr. Sisco, would you take a question on another subject? MR. SISCO: I have got my hands full and I would rather not get into anything else. Q You wouldn't rule out that some general agreement was made on arms, and could you clarify that in any way? MR. SISCO: I don't think I can be any more categoric than I was. I said, one, the nature of the discussions was general, and, secondly, I was categoric in saying no specific commitments were made. I can't be more categoric. Q The question was asked if some general agreement was made and you said you would not go beyond your previous statement. MR. SISCO: There is no general agreement and my answer is "no," if you read into what I said that I was trying to keep that open. Q When do you expect Mr. Rabin to come to Washington? MR. SISCO: I have no late information on that. Q Did you discuss with Mr. Sadat the date of passage of another ship in the Canal? MR. SISCO: No, this has not come up. THE PRESS: Thank you. END (AT 5:35 P.M. EST) cong. November 12, 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR: MAX FRIEDERSDORF FROM: JACK MARSH In reference to the recent action by the United Nations on the Zionist Resolution, do you suppose you could have your people take some doundings from Members, such as Buchanan, Fraser, Bingham, Rosenthal, Findley and their counterpario in the Senate, to see what the reaction is of those who have been strong U.N. backers to this action. JOM/dl GERALD FORD AIBRARY