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Indochina Refugees - President's Advisory Committee: Suggested Members (3)
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19077081
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Indochina Refugees - President's Advisory Committee: Suggested Members (3)
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Theodore C. Marrs Files (Ford Administration)
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The original documents are located in Box 12, folder "Indochina Refugees - President's
Advisory Committee: Suggested Members (3)" of the Theodore C. Marrs Files at the
Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Copyright Notice
The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of
photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald Ford donated to the United
States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections.
Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public
domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to
remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid
copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Digitized from Box 12 of the Theodore C. Marrs Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library
G
General Mills, Inc.
Governmental Relations Office
Suite 403-1629 K Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20006
(202) 223-2371
R-fet
May 14, 1975
Rch
Mr. Theodore C. Marrs
Special Assistant to the President for Human Resources
Office of Public Liaison
The White House
Washington, D. C. 20500
FORD & CERALD LIBRARY
Dear Ted:
Rather than suffer possible reverse of any false start, I sounded
out and received a commitment from James Summer, Vice Chairman
of the Board, General Mills, to serve on a White House Vietnam
refugee settlement advisory committee, should he be asked to serve.
I am most hopeful that Jim Summer may be invited to participate
in this worthy undertaking. I know he would serve with total dedication
and great distinction.
Jim would bring many unique qualities to such an organization.
Few chief executives are gifted with his kind of intense human
compassion and so deep and abiding a code of social responsibility.
Jim Summer literally is a "corporate philosopher in the board room,"
a characterization I do not make lightly. I have seen similar traits
in only a few other top executives, such as David Rockefeller or Sol
Linowitz.
Jim truly would be worthy of such an assignment; if there's any
possibility of his appointment, I will initiate all efforts helpful to
accomplishing that end.
Sincerely,
Gratam T.T. Moletor
Graham T.T. Molitor
Director Government Relations
GTTM:1m
Enclosure: Biography
Addendum -- Dear Ted:
An outline of recent remarks describing techniques for predicting
the emergence of public policy issues is enclosed. Pages 2l-25 describe
the basic data tracks -- 5 of them -- used in my prediction model. Pages
26-30 delineate past and prospective consumer policy developments. (The
list of 200 pending consumer issues -- pp. 29-30 -- even though still
current, was prepared 3 years ago; presently nearly 1,000 consumer
issues are being analyzed.)
The first draft master outline describing the prediction techniques I
am developing runs some 300 pages, the back-up charts and graphs number
perhaps 20,000, and some 5,000 3x5 notecards provide the basic research
core. I would gladly make available to the White House any of this data base.
Echoing your comments the other day on the waning political significance
of social welfare programs is a speech delivered nearly 5 years ago to the
President's National Marketing Advisory Committee (see pp. 2-3).
BIOGRAPHY
JAMES A. SUMMER
GERALD FORD
Member, Board of Directors,
Vice Chairman of the Board,
and Chief Development and Financial Officer
General Mills, Inc.
James A. Summer was elected a member of the Board of Directors
of General Mills in September 1968 and became Vice Chairman of the
Board and Chief Development and Financial Officer in June 1973. He had
served as President and Chief Operating Officer since November 1969. He
joined the company in 1960 as Coordinator of Planning in the Commercial
Development Department and was selected the next year as Assistant to
General Edwin W. Rawlings, then Executive Vice President and until
recently Chairman of the Board of General Mills.
In March 1962 Summer was named General Manager of the Electronics
Division and Chief Executive Officer of the Daven Division. Following the
company's 1963 decision to withdraw fromelectronics and defense activities,
he supervised their phasing out. His experience in planning and control
systems studies led to his election in June 1965 as Corporate Controller.
In September 1966 he was given the added responsibility for Corporate
Planning. In April 1967 he joined the President's office and the following
month resigned as Vice President to become Managing Director of the Smiths
Food Group Limited, London, England, which has since become a subsidiary
of General Mills. In September 1968 he became Executive Vice President
and Chief Operating Officer.
Summer attended Southern Methodist University for two years before
being appointed to the U.S. Military Academy, where in 1945 he received a
degree in military engineering. His career in engineering systems management
began with his assignment by the U.S. Air Force to a special graduate course
at the University of Michigan from which he was graduated in 1951 with a M.S.
degree in aero engineering. Subsequent assignments in the Air Force.
included service on the staff of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board and
Chief Air Force Procurement Office, Turin, Italy, where his principal
responsibility was with the Fiat Company.
Summer resigned his commission in 1957 to become Export Manager for
Avco Corporation's Lycoming Division. He later directed radar and satellite
systems projects in the Avco Advanced Research and Development Division.
He resigned from Avco in 1960 to join General Mills.
Born June 12, 1923 in Dallas, Texas, Summer is married and has four
children.
FUTURISM: "EARLY WARNING" SYSTEMS FOR
PINPOINTING EMERGING ISSUES
Graham T.T. Molitor
Director, Government Relations
General Mills, Inc.
1629 K Street, N.W., Suite 403
Washington, D. C. 20006
National Association of Manufacturers
Second Tuesday Seminar
Sheraton Carlton Hotel
Washington, D. C.
FORD & LIBRARY GERALD
Mayl3, 1975
OUTLINE OF REMARKS
Washington Reps: Styles and Levels
Shaping and Directing Issues vs. "Muscling" Them
Working with 3-20 Thought Leaders vs. 435 Congressmen
Plus 100 Senators
Abstractions and Their Importance in Public Policy
Ebbs and Flows in Historical Process
Polarity of Notions: Continuum of Basic Social-Political Concepts
Evolutionary Expansion/Refinement: Proceeding the Abstract
to the Specific
Delays in the Public Policy Making Process
Agents for Change in Fashioning U.S. Public Policy:
Lags Inherent in Pluralistic and Adversarial Process
Legislative Lag: The Congressional Process
Institutionalized Structure and Hierarchy Requires Protracted
Time to Act
Structural Forces Giving Rise to Search for New "Quality of Life"
Standards
Socio-Economic Maturation Model
Magnitude: Population Growth
Maintaining Perspective on Pace of Growth
Urbanization
Ushers in New Genra of Public Policy Problems
Knowledge Explosion
A Structural Force for Advancing Progressive Change
Economic Prosperity vs. Depression/Recession
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 1
Affluence
Wealth Opens Up New Opportunities
Big Government --- Taxes and Debt
Funds Under Public Control Set Scope of Government Activities
Leisure Time
More Time for Different Activities: recreation, self-improvement,
pursuit of QOL
Model Statutes
Speeding Up the Diffusion of Laws
Technology
Can Introduce Unique, Unanticipated Situations
Evolutionary Development in the Process of Change
Leading Events
Leading Authorities/Advocates
Leading Literature
Leading Organizations
Leading Political Jurisdiction
International Precursors
Domestic (State and Local) Precursors
Cyclical Recurrence of Consumer Public Policy Action
Four Cycles Since Turn of Century
Consumerism: Trends and Currents in Phase III
Consumerism: Forecast for Phase IV
Consumer Issues, 1975: Over 200 Pending Issues
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 2
WASHINGTON REPS: STYLES AND LEVELS OF OPERATION
I. Many different STYLES combine in getting the lobbying job done
A. Early Intervenors
Futurists -- anticipate issues as they are emerging; work with
experts in shaping issue focus; problem analyzer
and solver; information broker
Researchers -- study issues, pose alternative strategies for
coping
Golden tongued orators -- skilled speakers who lecture extensively
to head off issues before reaching the
legislative front-burner
Watchful waiters -- watchdogs assigned to keep eye on special
problem areas (e.g., wage-price controls)
Bill drafters -- put concepts into bill form
B. Direct Actors on Immediate Legislative Issues
Buttonholers -- direct eyeball-to-eyeball lobbying
Contact men -- those who know how to open doors, often well-
established socially with the greats and the
powerful [White House goers, diplomatic scene,
social milieu, Congressional beat, State
Department scene, club and athletic circuit, etc.]
Witnesses -- experts, senior management, primadonnas,
professional witnesses
Grass roots organizers -- indirect lobbyists who stir up home
districts
Economic backers -- political campaign backers
Political persuaders -- rely on political prowess to get legislators'
attention (know political situation first-hand)
Propagandists -- architects of persuasion
C. Observers (active but often aren't directly involved)
Periscopes -- sideline spectators, listening posts
Strategists -- (lobbyists' lobbyist) who are experts on timing,
tactics, parliamentary maneuvering, setting
campaign themes
Scouts -- reconnaisance (without being conspicuous); size up
opposition and develop ploys for counter-action
Vendors -- contract hound-dogs; sniff out government interest in
sales, R&D, pilot projects, demonstration grants,
and other marketing opportunities
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 3
D. After-the-fact Operatives
Legislative interpreters -- establish record of "legislative intent"
to achieve desired outcome
Judicial obstructionists
--
arrange procedural delays, including
judicial challenge to forestall or
defeat legislative goals
Evaders -- circumventers of the letter of the law; search for
loopholes; engage in outright evasion
II. Many different playing fields or LEVELS of Washington Rep operations:
A. International -- increasingly important for multi-national corporation;
dealings with UN, World Bank, OAS, EEC, GATT,
Embassy Row, etc.
B. National
Congress -- generalists vs. specialists
2 Platoon System -- In-house Democratic and in-house
Republican
Caucus specialists -- Negro rep for Black Caucus
Cabinet Offices -- Vice President for Post Office Affairs;
Transportation Counsel; etc.
Independent Regulatory Agencies
Technical representatives -- technical experts on key specialized
problems (i.e., petitioner for FDA
clearance of new drugs)
Outside retainers -- often outside counsel will be hired to handle
matters such as antitrust, labor law, patents
Quasi-public organizations
Communications-Satellite Corporation dealings
C. State and Local
Regional Reps -- cover a bloc of contiguous states
5/6/75 - Molitor/page 4
POLARITY OF NOTIONS: CONTINUUM OF BASIC
SOCIAL-POLITICAL CONCEPTS
(An Aid To Conceptualizing Historical Ebbs And Flows)
Unrestrained freedom and muddling
Centralized control and
through in a pluralistic way
conscious planning
characteristic of early stages
inherent in movement to
of economic development
Post-Industrial Society
John Locke - limited government
Authoritarianism
Charles Darwin - survival of fittest
Utilitarianism
Independence
Adam Smith - laissez faire
Competition
Elitism
Abraham Maslow - survival
Titanic technologies
Rational
Decentralized
(atomization)
Planning
Simplicity
Social
Interest
(altruism)
A
Z
L
C
A
É
Freedom
B
D
Control
C
R
E
E
Z
T
Complexity
Self-interest
(egocentric)
Centralized
(monolithic)
Muddling
through
Cooperation
Irrational
Interdependence
Governments' basic responsibility: to impartially mediate the inter-active
search for consensus and the "balanced center"
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 5
EVOLUTIONARY EXPANSION/REFINEMENTS
From the Abstract to the Specific
PHILOSOPHICAL - ABSTRACT
Equality - Egalitarianism
BASIC CONCEPT
BASIC CONCEPT
Economic Equality
Political Equality
GENERIC CLASS
GENERIC CLASS
Income Redistribution
Suffrage Extension,
Expansion
SUB-CLASSIFICATIONS
SUB-CLASSIFICATIONS
Progressive Tax
Banish Property Requirements
Transfer Payments
Age Reduction --Males
Social Security
(35-30-21-18)
Workmen's Compensation
Sex Discrimination
Unemployment Compensation
Minorities -- Full Rights
Medicare
Poll Tax Elimination
Aid to Dependent Children
Literacy Test Changes
Minimum Wage
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 6
AGENTS FOR CHANGE IN FASHIONING U.S. PUBLIC POLICY
Lags Inherent In Pluralistic and Adversarial Process
Leg-
islative
(Dem.
Hallmarks:
control)
separation of powers
Indep.
Indep.
checks and balances
Judiciary
Agencies
Federation -- local
autonomy and states rights
Government
2 party system
Republic - delegated power
State
Local
Govt.
Govt.
Executive
(Rep.
control)
Public
Press
Intellectuals
Spirited
Big
Corps
Advocates
Farm
Social
New
Public
Movements
Private
Big
Youth
consumer-
Technology Catalysts
Policy
Labor
Consensus
ists, envi
Sector
ronmen-
talists
Events
Change of
Ad
(thalido-
conditions
Hoc
Big
mide)
(magnitude)
Church
Groups
Smalls
Bigs
Hallmarks:
-- Leading edges
Hallmarks:
of change
Countervailing powers
Focus on, dramatize
Business
U.S. works through
need for change
groups
Sectoral
Conflicts
Butter vs. margerine
Livestock vs. textured protein
Cottonvs. wool vs. syrthetics
Rail vs. barge VS. truck VS.
air VS. pipelines
Hallmarks:
-- United front seldom
achieved
-- Competition and conflict
-- Counter force
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 7
LEGISLATIVE LAG: THE CONGRESSIONAL PROCESS
Institutionalized Structure And Hierarchy Requires Protracted Time To Act
Pre-introduction
Bill drafted (bills, resolutions -- concurrent, joint or simple)
Possible bill drafters office view for uniformity
Introduction in House of Representatives (origination mandatory re tax bills;
customary re appropriation bills)
Introduced
Printed
First read by title only
Referred to committee by Speaker/Parliamentarian
-- to joint or multiple committees (for concurrent or successive action)
Committee Action
Possible referral to subcommittee
Consideration by subcommittee/committee
-cognizant agencies comments solicited
-- possible public hearings (invite or subpoena witnesses;
prolonged hearings may delay)
-- possible amendments
-- pigeonholed -- killed through inaction or otherwise
Vote -- if approved:
-- report and amendments drafted and printed
Full Committee vote
-- possible motion to discharge committee
-- possible executive (closed) sessions
Rules Committee (major bills)
-- hearings
-- reported (open or closed rule)
-- possible parliamentary bypass maneuvers (Calendar Wednesday)
Floor Action
Placed on calendar
-- Union (revenue and appropriations)
-- House (public)
-- Private
-- Consent (minor, non-controversial)
-- Discharge (remove bills from committees)
Scheduled for debate
Amended --- substitute bill -- rewritten
Repeated quorum calls, roll call votes, parliamentary delays
Passage or defeat
Referred back to committee (motion to recommit)
Engrossment of "Act" (true copy, blue paper)
Signed by Clerk of the House
Reading Clerk delivers to Senate
5/6/75 -
Molitor/page 8
Senate Action
Referred to Committee
Committee action
Floor action (filibuster possibility)
Conference Committee (when House and Senate versions differ)
Hearings (usually in closed executive session)
Reported
Each House must concur in the conference report
Formalities on Final Action
Enrollment of Act (true copy on parchment -- sometimes up to 500
amendments)
Reviewed for accuracy by Committee on House Administration
Signed by Speaker and by Vice President of Senate
Presidential Action
Approve or permit bill to become law without signature
Veto or pocket veto (failing to sign if bill received less than 10 days
before Congress adjourns
Congressional Reconsideration
Upon Presidential veto, bill returned to originating body (subject to
privileged motion)
Override veto
-- Senate --- by 2/3 majority
-- House -- by 2/3 majority
Publication
"Slip law" (unbound and published separately)
Statutes at large
United States (and D.C.) Codes
5/6/75 --
Molitor/page 9
STRUCTURAL FORCES GIVING RISE TO SEARCH FOR NEW
"QUALITY OF LIFE" STANDARDS:
(From "A Look at Government -- Forecasting Public Policy
Developments," Technology Assessment, Vol. 1, No. 4,
1973, pp. 272-3, by Graham T.T. Molitor)
SOCIO - ECONOMIC MATURATION MODEL
U.S. EMPLOYMENT- BY ECONOMIC SECTOR (STATISTICAL APPROXIMATION)
YEAR
1500
1900
1956
1972
2000
100
90
KNOWLEDGE
T c R N P E E
BO
(est. for 1972 - 33% of work)
70
force
year 2000 some )
60
56% so engaged
SERVICES
50
40
30
35
MANUFACTURING
20
10
AGRICULTURE
11
14
2
MASLOW HIERARCHY
OF NEEDS
Survival
Security
Belongingness
Esteem
Self Actualization
STAGE OF ECONOMIC
Agrarian
Manufacturing
Service - Knowledge
EVOLUTION
Extractive
Early Industrial
AdvencedIndustrial
Post Industrial
ECONOMIC
Hunter-
Tribal Society;
Organization Man;
Ostentatious
Cognitive and Aesthètic
ACTIVITY
Gatherer;
Minorities;
Man in gray flannel
success; nouveaux
challenge; Inner
OR STATUS
POW's;
Poor; Small
suit; Mass middle
riches; keeping
potentials; deeper
Poverty
Businessman
class
up with Joneses;
personal meaning
Stricken
Establishment
STAGE OF SOCIO-
Primitive
Take off/developing
Advanced
Future
ECONOMIC DEVELOP-
MENT
BASE OF ECONOMIC
Property -things, objects
Ideas: Mind: Experience
WEALTH
GOODS AND
Physiological-Necessities
Psychological;
SERVICES
Materialism
Amenities
Subjective
CHARACTER
OF GOODS
Quantitative
Qualitative.
AVAILABILITY
Super Abundance
OF GOODS
Scarcity
Abundance
(restrictions on output)
ABILITY TO
Poor: Limited wherewithal
Well-to-do, Rich,Affluent
(U.S. with G: world population,
ACQUIRE GOODS
(opens up opportunity to choose, alter values) 7% land consumes,
over 50% world'swealth)
ABILITY TO
Muscle-powerto-machine power (industrial
Brain power-to-EDP, cybernetics
PRODUCE GOODS
revolution) (man or beast)
(knowledge, information handling
revolution)
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 10
TECHNOLOGICAL
Few Inventions (great lapse between
Many (90% of scientists who ever
GROWTH
Invention and widespread application)
lived, alive today)
SCIENTIFIC
EMPHASIS
Physical Sciences
Social Sciences
BEHAVIORAL
Self Interest; Darwinism (survival.
Broader social concerns;
New humanism:
OUTLOOK
of fittest); Ego oriented; Asocial;
Egalitarianism: Equality;
Maturity
Animalistic; Infantilism
Social Welfare
COGNITIVE
Irrational; Illogical;
Rational; Logical
APPROACH
Chaotic
AWARENESS
Complacency
Awakening
Experimentation
Lasting Effects
PER CAPITA
POWER
Limited Power
Massive Power
SIZE OF
Small Scale
luge Scale
SOCIETY
(colonies, tribes, kinsmen)
(25% of persons v. ever lived,
alive today)
SOCIETAL
Freedom
Collaborative, Partici-
Authoritative, Mandatory
CONSTRAINT
patory Action to Restrain
Restraints
SOCIAL
Independent
DEPENDENCE
(self sufficiency)
Dependent
Inter-Dependent
LEVEL OF
Public
/
ORGANIZATION
Individual
Group
Cooperative
Large Scale Group
Private
ORGANIZATIONAL
STATUS
Decentralized (Automistic)
Centralizied
GEOGRAPHICAL
Local
Neighborhood
Region State Nation World
Extraterrestal
LOCUS
(self, family)
COMPLEXITY
Simple (firelight - candlelight - gaslight
Complex (vast infrastructure)
electric light - power, generation,
transmission, etc.)
SOCIAL
Very high - Rising aspirations
Unconcerned
Very high - engheads,
DISCONTENT
(ghettos) early labor movement)
Complacency
crusaders, children of
affluent society
NORMATIVE
Introspective
Aggregation
Uniformity
BEHAVIOR
Conformity
KINDS OF GOODS
Things, material goods
Services: experiences; sensate
SCIENTIFIC
EMPHASIS
Physical, "hardsciences
Social, "Loft" sciences
STATUS OF
POPULATION
"Have Nots"
"Haves"
BREADTH OF
CHOICE
Few stark choices
Bewildering array of choices
INTELLECTUAL
EMPHASIS
Generalists
Specialists
Ad-hocracy
PROFIT MOTIVE
Maximization of profits
Profitability
Balanced consideration
of broader social
responsibilities and
public interest
OUTLOOK ON
WORK
Puritan hardwork ethic
Leisure as a matter of right
FORD LIBRARY
5/6/75
--
Molitor/page 11
MAGNITUDE: POPULATION GROWTH
Maintaining Perspective on Pace of Growth
Century-plus Perspective: 1830-1995
Population
Interval to add
(9)
6 (billions)
1 billion population
(11)
5
(years)
(15)
4
(30)
3
(100)
2
1
Year
1830
1930
1960
1975
1986
1995
2 Thousand Year Perspective
Population
6 (billions)
Exponential rate
5
of increase
4
3
1 billion
1/2 billion
2
1/4 billion
1
Year
BC1
1000
1650
1830
2000
20 Thousand Year Perspective
Momentary burst of
numbers? (Reptiles
dominated earth for
over 100 million years.)
Year
10,000
1800
2200
10,000 AD
2000
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 12
URBANIZATION
Ushers In New Genra of Public Policy Problems
Percent Urban
Dwellers
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Year
1790 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1950
5/6/75 - Molitor/page 13
KNOWLEDGE EXPLOSION
A Structural Force For Advancing Progressive Change
Total Books Published
Number Journals Published
70million
Gutenberg Press
books
60,000
(1441)
Bible published
circa
70
1450
Year
Year
2
1400
1800
1900
2000
1700
1800
1900
2000
Number of International
Knowledge Doublings
Conferences Held
8,960
5th
(est.)
4th
2,913
3rd
469
2nd
Year
22
1850 1890 1920 1965-75
1st
Year
1850 1900 1950 1960 1968
5/6/75
--
Molitor/page 14
ECONOMIC PROSPERITY vs. DEPRESSION/RECESSION
BUSINESS ACTIVITY SINCE 1899: THE AMERICAN BUSINESS CYCLE IN PROFILE
+60
+6
+50
World War =
+5
+40
Bull
+4
+30
Market
PER CENT OF LONG-TERM TREND
Corporate
New Eta
Boom
Capital
Tax-cut
+3
+20
World War I
Prosperity
Korean War
Goods
Boom
Merger
Prosperity
Boom
Post-war
+2
+10
Prosperity
**
Boom
+1
0
0
10
Rich Man's
-20
Recon-
1949
-10
Panic
Panic
version
Recession
-2
-30
of 1907
Primary
Post-war
-3
-40
Depression
The Great
-41
-50
Depression
5(
-60
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
6(
1950
#
1955
1960
1965
Motitor/page(5 5/6/75 I
AFFLUENCE -- WEALTH MAKES MANY THINGS THINKABLE
World GNP --- U.S. Share
U.S. Percent
of total
39
40
33
32
30
30
28
20
10
Year
1950
1960
1965
1970
1973
GNP Per Capita -- Leading Countries
U.S.
Dollars
(1971-72)
Sweden
5,000
Canada
Switzerland
Germany
4,000
Denmark
Norway
3,000
U.K.
2,000
Spain
1,000
Turkey
U.S. Median Family Income
Dollars (1971
constant dollars)
10,285
10,000
7,688
7,500
5,483
5,000
Year
1947
1960
1971
U.S. Families of High Income
77%
Percent families
69%
over $10M
52%
(1971 dollars)
Year
Colonial Times
1970
1980
1990
5/6/75 - Nolitor/page 16
BIG GOVERNMENT -- TAXES AND DEBT
Federal, State & Local Tax Receipts
Amount
$400 bil.
393.6
207.8
$200 bil.
100.0
$100 bil.
52.0
$50 bil.
10.6
$10 bil.
Year
1.4
$1.bil.
1902
1936
1944
1956
1967
1974
Gross Debt -- Federal, State & Local
Amount
678.1
$700 bil.
$350 bil.
356.2
218.4
$200 bil.
53.2
$50 bil.
$3 bil.
3.2
Year
1902
1936
1944
1960
1974
Tax Receipts -- As a Percent of Net National Product
1971 countries where percent
is over 40%:
33.4
Denmark: 44.0
Netherlands: 42.2
30%
30.4
Sweden: 41.8
Norway: 41.5
(U.S. on same scale: 27.8)
20.7
20%
POINT OF REVOLT: 50%?
10.8
10%
Year
1929
1941
1963
1973
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 17
LEISURE TIME
(More time for different activities: recreation, self-improvement, pursuit of QOL)
LIFE EXPECTANCY
Persons Living Longer
Years of Age
80
71.3
66.7
60
49.2
40
40.9
33.5
20
22
18
Year
B.C.
AD1
1600
1850
1900 1946 1973(US)
Workweek Shrinking
*
Hours weekly
70
62
42.2
40
36
Year
1890
1948
1968
1990
* Also: Earlier retirement,
more holidays,
increased vacations,
more leaves of absence,
sabbaticals, inc.
5/6/75 - Molitor/page 18
MODEL STATUTES: SPEEDING UP THE DIFFUSION OF LAWS
Fireworks Banning Act
No. of states having
enacted
50
27 states
25
Year
1964
1970's
Key Facts: Between 1900-1930, more Americans were killed (4,290)
and more maimed (96,000) by fireworks than were killed in the 8-year
Revolutionary War (4,044 killed; 6,188 severely wounded)! In 1964
property damage from fireworks was running some $250,000-500,000.
Conclusion: Commemorating Revolution causing greater death
and injury than the war itself!!
Political Choice: how could any legislator resist banning fireworks?
Conclusion: insurance industry reduced actuarial experience and
had options of lowered rates/greater profits.
5/6/75 - Molitor/page 19
TECHNOLOGY -- CAN INTRODUCE UNIQUE, UNANTICIPATED SITUATIONS
Mechanical Refrigerators
Refrigenator
Safety Act
Enacted in 45
Diffusion
states
*
Widespread
Use
Entranment
Deaths Rise
Year
1834
1851
1950-60
1970's
First refrigeration
First U.S.
machine patented
patent
in U.K. by
issued to
Jacob Perkins
John Gorrie
The Problem: After introduction and widespread usage of mechanical
refrigerators, children entrapped inside air tight compartments by
mechanical locks operable only from the outside died from suffocation.
The Legislative Solution: Design changes so units could be opened
from either side of refrigerator door, removal of doors from
abandoned units (only 5 states have not enacted Refrigerator Safety
Acts -- Colorado, Hawaii, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia).
Legislative Solution Mooted: Magnetic closures all but eliminate
any further problem.
5/6/75 - Molitor/page 20
- Isolated events, bits and pieces, random data -- aberrant, bizarre,
unique, unusual, different, dissent, discord, deviant,
novel, new, far-out experiments -- not noteworthy on
casual glance
- Abuses gathered together, catalogued, quantified, measured
- Aggregation of random events into meaningful clusters, nodes
thalidomide)
- Social surveillance systems (General Mills' Cultural Change
and Surveillance System)
- Analysis to discern patterns, trends (Social Indicators)
TAKE-OFF POINT
- Parameters of problem, its dimensions established
for action (e.g., elixir sulfanilimide,
- Record compilation (statistical abstracts, services)
- Jargon, shorthand code words for discussing issue developed
widespread hazard, generates immediate demand
Public outrage over severe abuses, threats of
CATALYTIC EVENTS
BUILDING DATA OR EVIDENTIARY BASE
LEADING EVENTS --
- Computerized data analysis (NEISS)
- Documentation of specifics
and formalized
- Counter viewpoints, opposing views expressed
course for change is reached.
Molitor/page
on "cost benefits") virtually irreversible
"take off" points at which time (depending
Key Tracking Point: "Data walls" amass to "critical mass",
action is virtually assured.
5/6/75 -- 2t
or excess so unconscionable that remedial
build up to a "data wall" describing an abuse
deployed in a time-series, isolated events
- Overkill (public interest overtaxed, badgered to death) --
public interest wanes
- Social history analysis (sociology of change refined, revised)
problems
social
rise to
major
events giving
Number of
- Innate innovators (Albert Einstein, utopians, visionaries)
- Leading experts (pre-eminent few in any discipline)
- Victims; relatives, close friends or sympathizers
of victims (Mitch Kurman)
- Deviant types --- critics, cranks, kooks (but not lunatic
Key
fringe)
I. Gloom and doom peddlers (Club of Rome)
- Revoluntionary-minded types
- Public-spirited crusaders for a cause (Ralph Nader,
missionaries, zealots, hairshirts)
- Crusaders spawn disciples, instructors, proselytizers
(Naders Raiders, CSPI)
- Think tanks (Hudson Institute, Stanford Research Institute,
Institute for the Future, Forecasting International)
- Government-sponsored research (National Science Founda-
tion, Presidential commissions, investigating committees)
- Academia -- leading scholars (Harvard, Yale, Princeton)
- -'Invisible colleges" (informal study networks)
- Expert elites (luminaries, leading authorities)
VANGUARD FOR CHANGE
be forecasted.
- Issue merchandisers (commercial knowledge exploiters)
- EDP expert forecast composites (Futures Group, GE)
- Public policy research centers (AEI, CED, Conference Board)
- General intelligencia
- Sub-group specialists (split-offs from parent organ.)
- Idea brokers (Dick Wakefield)
- Idea synthesizers (research on research, distillers of prolix)
5/6/75 - Molitor/page 22
natural leaders
leading personalities (clergy, educators, business,
folk heroes
community & political leaders)
diffused widely, early indications of change can
early vanguards whose ideas ultimately are
pinpointed on any issue; by monitoring these
Tracking Point: Usually less than 12 innate innovators can be
often become powerful propaganda symbols for change
- Opinion molders (develop intellectual followings)
capable of articulating their plight, emote their feelings and
around an issue -- likewise the victimized, even though less
elites who analyze and articulate social problems tend to emerge
LEADING AUTHORITIES/ADVOCATES Intellectual
youth
- Mass learning phase
- Issue popularizers
literary critics (book reviewers)
or issue
Popular wisdom peddlers (cabbies, barbers)
ing an idea
champion-
involved in
of persons
Number
LEADING LITERATURE ---
Written records progress from modest beginnings
to the more prolix which serve to explicate
parameters and refine thinking, then to mass
literature for public consumption
Key Tracking Point: Various classes of literature emerge at different
times -- lead-lag times of up to 100 years can be
involved -- therefore, "early warnings" about
emerging problems can be obtained from careful
literature search.
DATA BASE BUILD-UP -- CHRONICLES OF CHANGE
Critical Paint
Number of articles
issue can
reach "point
of no return,"
obtain "inev-
itability" at
this juncture
or quantity (pages,
column inches,
etc.)
published
on an
issue
- Artistic, poetic works
- Science fiction
- Fringe media, underground press
- Unpublished notes and speeches
- Monographs, treatises
- Scientific, technical, professional journals
- Highly specialized, narrow viewpoint publications
- Statistical documents (social indicators,
statistical services)
- Abstracting journals, services (NTIS)
- Data search composites (Predicast, Scout)
- Egghead journals (Science, Scientific American)
- Insider "dopesheets" (Product Safety Letter)
- Popular intellectual magazines (Harpers, Atlantic)
- Network communications (bulletins, newsletters,
- Journals for the cause (Consumer Reports)
- General interest publications (Time, Newsweek)
- Condensations of general literature (Readers Digest)
- Poll data, public opinion, behavioral and voter attitudes
- Legislative/governmental services, reports
- Fiction -- novels provide social analysis of times
- Non-fiction pull together discordant parts into
easily understood whole
slipsheets IOCU)
-, Newspapers (New York Times and Washington Post early,
Southern rural papers late commentators)
- Radio/TV (networks comment earlier than local stations).
- Books
- Education journals
- Historical analysis
- Doctoral theses
Visionary,
Ren-
Corroba-
Diffusion
Inst-
Mass
Pot
Instanteneous
Edu-
der-
tion of
of an
itu-
media
iti
Historical
uninhibited
coverage for
cating
ing
details
idea
tion-
zing
mass con-
people
analysis
among
al
the
idea
sumption
to the
opinion
res-
SSUB
new
to
ponse
norm
spec-
ifics
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 23
LEADING ORGANIZATIONS -- Innate innovators attract adherents which build
up into formal followings and usually become
institutionalized
Key Tracking Point: growth of institutional backing for a cause --
whether measured by number of organizations,
persons involved or resources committed ---
follows exponential increases which tend to
force serious consideration of the issue by
public policy makers
ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT FOR A CAUSE
Number of
organizations, persons
resources committed to
the cause.
Informal Phase
Formalization of Undertaking
Individual
Informal
Formal Local State Regional National International
Loners
Groups
Organizations Organ. Organ. Organ. Linkages
Associations, leagues, federations, international
networks
Victims
Crusaders
Building together of like-minded
of a
problem
Unorganized
Organized
Random,
Institutionalizing the cause
ad hoc
Amateur, part-time
Professional, full-time champions
advocates
Issues simple
Complexity grows
Issues emotionalized, naively
Serious-minded, rational efforts
conceived
undertaken
Unrefined delineation of issues
Highly functionalized, extremely
specialized sub-groups emerge
Amateur advocates generate publicity,
Amateurs burned out,
attract interest to cause, build up a
except for few "die hards"
following -- "lightening rod" effect
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 24
LEADING POLITICAL JURISDICTIONS -- Early innovators and experimenters show
the way to others -- after idea is proven,
other jurisdictions emulate, follow.
Key Tracking Point: Some 4-6 countries (and often simulteneously
their internal local jurisdictions) invariably are
the first to innovate by implementing new public
policy ideas -- these leading jurisdictions vary with
different times in history and for different issues
INTERNATIONAL PRECURSORS (Post WWII Period)
satiation
Upper Vdta
Point of Inflection
Zambia
Canada
Number of countries
United States
Germany
implementing a new
Denmark
Sweden
policy
Usually about 10 years
About 6 years
Often several decades
Early leaders --
Middlings (the
Late adopters -- less developed
over-whelming
advanced countries;
countries (some may never
bulk of countries
implement the particular
super-industrialized;
act at this point)
policy)
affluent; literate
DOMESTIC (STATE AND LOCAL) PRECURSORS (Post WWII period)
Cities, Counties
States
Deep South
(Miss., La.
Ala., etc.)
Rural Areas
Dade
Boston,
California
(Wyo., etc.)
County, Mass Illinois
Fla.
Number of state/local jurisdictions
NYC
Massachusetts
implementing a new policy
New York
Usually about 4 years ahead
Some 4-8 years later
Last 2-6 years
Early
Early
Early
Late
Innovators
Adopters
Majority
Majority
Laggards
Jurisdiction characteristics
Jurisdiction
-- highly urban; densely
characteristics
populated; super-affluent;
-- rural;
highly educated; youthful;
traditión-
progressive
bound: non-
affluent, etc.
5/6/75 -- Molitor/ page 25
Cyclical Recurrence of Consumer Public Policy Action ---
Four Cycles Since Turn of Century
U.S. CONSUMERISM: 4 CYCLES (As measured by number of major actions)
Peak: 1998
Peak: 1970-1
Number
of major
actions
taken
Peak: 1936
Peak: 1914
I
II
III
IV
(projected)
1887
1916
1920
1941
1951
1974
1978
1998
1900
1917
1929 1940
1960
1998
Progressive Era
New Deal
New Politics Period
Crusade for
Amelioration
Social Justice
industrialization
Post Industrial Transition
Great
WW I
Great
WW II
Downturn
1917-18
Depression
1941-45
1973-77
Interruptions to Continuing Progressive Trend: Wars, Economic Disasters & Readjustment
5/6/75 --- Molitor/ page 26
CONSUMERISM: TRENDS AND CURRENTS IN PHASE III
U.S. CONSUMERISM: PHASE III
No. of
16
major
12
actions
taken
10
8
6
5
4
3
2
1
1951
1953
54
58
60
61
62
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72 73 74
U.S. CONSUMERISM: PHASE III
Enactments, Enforcement, Voluntarism,
Education -- as measured by resources
committed (budget, personnel, man-hours,
CLASS OF AW
etc.)
Substantive
Adjective
Number laws enacted
Enforcement
(resourees comtd)
Voluntarism
Educational
1951
1974
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 27
CONSUMERISM FORECAST FOR PHASE IV
U.S. CONSUMERISM: PHASE IV
Number of major
actions taken
1978
1998
Some factors required for next cycle "take off":
Information processing technologies to enable consumer to cope with
impending "information overload":
-- computer-assisted "best buy" search
- Universal Product Code ---
widespread implementation
required
- Automated electronic retail front-ends
- Individual "black box" link to central data banks (pocket
calculator, touch tone telephone, cable TV, electronic home
consols, etc.)
- Comprehensive data banks (nutrition; ingredients: additives; etc.)
Urban density (unbearably longcheck-out lines) and need for productivity
impel retailers to close neighborhood supermarkets, move to strategically
located hyper-marches
-- Electronic home ordering systems (electronic shopper calalogues;
wall screen T.V.; video-phone; touch-tone phone digital ordering
systems; etc.)
- Strategically situated regional warehouses deliver EDP ordered/
assembled market baskets swiftly and efficiently during non-
conjested street periods (1-6 a.m.)
Kinds of issues to be coped with by EDP shopping assistance
-- EDP search for "best buys" -- quantitative/qualitative
- Nutritional efficacy (protein quality -- PER ratios; saturated/
unsaturated fatty acid ratios; micro-trace elements, nutrients;
health factors -- hand-tailored metabolic efficiencies
- Mathematical calculations -- adjustments for varying percent main/
active ingredients; drained weight adjustments; etc.
- Special searches for allergenics (ingredient rejections, etc.)
- Overall quality assurance ratings of manufacturers
- Social responsiveness of manufacturer
- Special ratings, gradings, ratios
- Packaging material preference (reusable container; recyclable
materials; special preservation techniques -- nitrogen gassed;
irradiated; asceptic packaging; etc.)
- Unit pricing; open dating; etc.
- Murphy's Law disclosures -- abuse factors leading to potential
hazards (e.g., aerosols -- "sniffer" problems; atmospheric
disturbances)
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 28
CONSUMER ISSUES 1975: OVER 200 PENDING ISSUES
1. Quantitative Measurements. Unit pricing; packaging to price; psychological
pricing; slack fill; drained weight disclosure; size standardization; product
proliferation; package size characterization; metric weights and measures;
cost-benefit questions (re implementation).
2. Qualitative Measurements. Value comparison criteria; grade labeling;
restaurant rating systems; octane ratings; seals of approval (UL, Good
Housekeeping); nutrition labeling (MDR vs. RDA; minimum vs. maximum);
"quality shaving"; full ingredient disclosure; ingredient source disclosure;
percent labeling; protein labeling (PER's -- protein efficacy ratios); fatty
acid labeling; open dating; private labels vs. brand names; efficacy (of
drugs, foods); performance evaluation (of durables); health maintenance
through proper diet; special dietary foods; high protein foods; low calorie
foods; low sodium foods; low fat foods; enrichment and fortification;
engineered foods (food analogs); natural ("organic") foods; adulteration
(fillers, extenders, inert ingredients); long term effects of trace contami-
nants (carcinogenic, mutagenic, teratagenic); Delaney "anti-cancer" clause;
residual contaminants [pesticides (DDT); fertilizers; irradiation; veterinary
medicines (DES); heavy metals (mercury); extraction solvent residues;
package transmigration (PCB's)].
3. Safety/Efficacy of Products. Hazard warning declarations (e.g., cigarettes,
cyclamates, fatty acids, etc.); additives -- GRAS list review; WHO survey;
plant inspections (e.g., re wholesomeness -- fish, meat); unsanitary shipping/
storage; self-certification; quality control; filth guidelines; product recalls;
toxic substances; electrical hazards; flammable materials (textiles, plastics,
etc.); thermal hazards; aerosal propellants; lead-based paints; medical and
therapeutic devices; tire safety; auto safety; toy safety; drug safety.
4. Environmental-related Issues. Planned obsolescence; persistent residuals
(mercury, heavy metals); solid waste --- man made: bottles, cans, plastic,
paper containers; natural: bones, fish heads, citrus rind; managing finite
resources (reuse, reclaim, recycle); bans on packaging materials (aluminum,
PVC); mandatory cash deposits on 1-way containers; trash tax; impact of mass-
produced goods and one-way convenience packaging; hasty, ill-considered
applications of new technology (phosphates/NTB in detergents); noise pollution;
air/water pollution; "aesthetic" pollution; phosphate-based detergent bans;
edible packaging.
5. Advertising. More informative disclosures; detailed comparative disclosures;
truth in advertising; affirmative disclosure; corrective ads; puffing; half-
truths; exaggerated statements and demonstrations; judgement or opinion claims;
appeals to reason vs. emotions; performance claims; factual claims; factual
health and safety claims; suggested product uses and inherent safety risks;
price and price comparisons; controversial public issues; fairness doctrine;
special audiences (kids, ethnic, etc.); competition (barrier to entry).
6. Promotion of Products. Premiums; coupons; games; contests; sweepstakes;
trading stamps; cents off; "two-fers"; point of purchase information.
5/6/75 -- Molitor/page 29
7. Credit/Financing. "Cashless"society; "checkless" society; hidden charges;
usury; sales below cost/discounts/ rebates; supermarket/economic
boycotts; credit records --- Invasion of privacy.
8. Market Structure and Competition. Antitrust revisions; oligopoly; franchising;
foreign trade protectionism vs. freer trade; idiosyncracity -- fragmentation
of markets.
9. Procedural Redress (Adjective law) -- Simple, speedy, satisfactory settlement
for consumer problems. Ombudsman; consumer advocate intervention; class
action; Consumer Protection Agency (council, department); curbstone
justice -- neighborhood courts, small claims courts; tougher enforcement;
additional funds/staff for enforcement; trade regulation rules; licensing of
food plants; private settlements (conciliation, mediation, arbitration);
simplified warranties; money-back guarantees; toll free complaint/service
calls.
10. Consumer Education. In the schools; in the marketplace (fuller information/
advertising disclosures; outreach programs); info tags, hang tags; care
labeling; computerized national data bank; institutional advertising; public
service advertising; fairness doctrine; counter-advertising; information
"overload".
11. Consumer Movement. Origins, history; future trends and perspectives;
overseas experience; activities in "leading jurisdictions"; consumption
trends (allocation of disposable income); back to nature movement; anti-
establishmentarianism; retailing/distribution in the future (Universal
Product Code; automated "front-ends"); industry self-regulation; model
state statutes; federal pre-emption vs. state/local diversity; who speaks
for consumers.
5/6/75 --
Molitor/page 30
PROPOSITIONS - CONSUMER ISM
Remarks by: Graham T. T. Molitor
Counsel, Government Relations
National Biscuit Company
Presented to: U.S. Department of Commerce
National Marketing Advisory Committee
Washington, D. C.
November 19, 1970
FORDS i LIBRARY GERALD
-1-
Mr. Chairman. Distinguished members and guests.
In the next few minutes, I will present several
ideas on consumerism, stating them as separate
propositions to get across as many thoughts as
possible within a short time.
/Proposition (1). Political
-2-
Proposition (1). Political parties are beginning
the search for a new nucleus of issues upon which their
continued existence is likely to depend.
The old social-welfare hub of issues which President Roosevelt
fashioned into a political instrument and with which
the Democrat Party has thrived for more than 3 decades
is rapidly becoming out-dated, passé.
That is not to say social-welfare issues are
no longer important or no longer of concern. The point
is that as an issue-base this humanitarian cause has
ceased to be the crusade around which national political
parties can continue to be formed. New crusades are
being formed.
The new hub of issues upon which political parties
of the future must be built revolves around a "quality of
life" theme. The common thread which can tie the new
package of issues together is, at this moment, yet to
President Kennedy
be discovered.
/ set the tone, Senator Muskie has been
running with one of the important elements - ecology.
The rallying point is destined to be environmentalism
- air, water, solid waste, noise, thermal and radioactive
pollution, even extra-terrestrial pollution (the flotsam and
jetsam of orbiting rocket boosters and the more frightening prospect of
Consumerism and the "quest for quality" better
alien contam-
ination we
enabling persons to cope with abundance and technology
might
inadvertently
is a second main theme.
bring back from
stellar reaches)
/The impersonal nature
-3-
The impersonal nature of the marketplace, product
proliferation, and the increasing complexity of the new
technologies give rise to consumerism.
The new politics will be an urban politics. Urban
because by year 2000 an incredible 85% of all Americans
may be crowded into "ant hill" metro areas comprising a
mere scrap of 4-7% of America's land space. This intense
crowding into urban heaps, accompanied by increased
clustering of manufacturing in those same areas, generates
the crisis proportion of the pollution issue. Americans
want the place they live to be clean, healthful and safe.
Above all else, the political importance of this
issue is based on numbers. Numbers mean majorities.
Urban Americans may soon comprise 85% of the population.
Urban Americans moreover will be searching for a mouthpiece,
a mechanism for voicing their new-felt needs. Appealing
to this group, solving unique problems plaguing this
group, can bring the kind of loyalty that means votes.
Votes are the stuff with which political parties are
made.
This "politicalization" of consumerism, environmentalism
and the "quality of life" theme mean increased activity on
these issues. Business is directly involved and will
play an important role in resolving these issues. So,
it's especially important to fully understand them.
/Proposition (2). Consumerism
-4-
Proposition (2). Consumerism, like many great
issues, is an evolutionary force whose themes constantly
recur with cyclical regularity.
The reason for this is that law is evolutionary,
and is constantly in the process of refinement.
Consumer laws (or laws of any kind) are society's
institutional means for constrining the excesses of
behavior. More laws are inevitable as society - including
its economic. structure - becomes larger, more complex
and more interrelated.
Basically new laws reflect man's constant search
for perfection (a goal he is incapable of ever fully
achieving). All of this means endless tinkering.
Pressures for new laws build up in response to a
catalog of abuses. Once the body of evidence is documented
and compiled a compelling and irreversible force for
corrective legislation begins anew. The swiftness of
this process often depends upon dramatic events - "catalysts"
such as the thalidomide tragedy-which create a sense of
outrage that triggers political response.
Historical precedent reveals a 10-20 year cycle
as a new clutch of consumer reforms emerge and are
satisfactorily dealt with. The first wave of consumerism
/in this Century occurred
-5-
in this Century occurred during the Progressive Era
and lasted some 20 years (1887-1907). The second cycle,
ushered in by shock of the Great Depression, lasted some
10 years (1929-1938).
We're now in the midst of the third great wave
of consumerism in this Century. Measuring the current
cycle from 1958 (enactment of the Automobile Disclosure
Act, and the beginning of Senator Kefauver's drug
investigations and truth-in-packaging crusade), we can
anticipate, on the basis of historical precedent alone,
up to 8 more years of consumer activism.
/Proposition (3). Consumer laws
-6-
Proposition (3).
Consumer laws protecting against
the more serious kinds of wrongs - fraud, misrepresentation
and deception - have long since been won;now upon us are new
laws protecting against mere confusion.
The new breed of protections facilitate "value"
comparisons, strive to simplify supermarket mathematics
and attempt to
of determining "best buys" ,/protect consumers against
for example,
their own carelessness ("cooling off" periods for recon-
sideration of door-to-door contracts, cautionary labels,
making products "people-proof").
The process of change had earlier precedents.
Along the way Caveat Emptor (Let the Buyer Beware) is
being supplanted by Caveat Venditor (Let the Seller Beware),
implied warranties have been extended, the defense of
privity has been relaxed, and the strict liability doctrine
has been enlarged.
Even more vast are changes underway to protect against
the broader social consequences of business actions. On the
social consequences front:
- phosphates in detergents are being banned;
- throw-away beverage containers are being outlawed;
- persistent residual pesticides such as DDT have
been curtailed.
These are marked changes in degree which vastly
extend traditional legal doctrine.
Proposition (4). Consumers
-7- -
Proposition (4).
Consumers are clamoring for
fuller disclosure of qualitative and quantitative
information enabling them to more intelligently determine
"value".
Consumers buy more and more, but understand less
and less about what they buy. This "information gap"
is the seedbed for bewilderment, confusion, and frustration
which nurtures into irritation, mistrust and eventually
resentment. It gives impetus to consumer causes.
A cautious approach is required lest a large
number of additional objective measurements create
an "information overload" SO that product appraisal
is confused, not clarified, and SO consumers are
hindered, not helped.
Simplicity, not a clutter of technical comparative
detail is what is needed.
Proposition (5). The frantic
-8-
Proposition (5). The frantic pace of technology
as well as its growing complexity makes consumers less
and less able to evaluate products.
In simpler days, evaluating less complicated staple
products was not too difficult.
A buyer of fresh fruit from bulk lots could see,
feel, smell and otherwise make decisions based on first-hand
experience. Modern packaging forecloses most of these
direct evaluations.
Compounding the problem is the consumer's inability
to judge side-effects of additives, processing losses,
nutrient efficiency ratios, grade, variety and a large
number of other factors. Judgments concerning these
matters are increasingly remote from the consumer's
capabilities.
The emergence of "ersatz" (synthetic) foods difficult
to tell apart from the real thing, exotically blended
combination foods (containing 20 ingredients or more),
TV dinners, and a new host of processed foods further
increase the consumer's disability to evaluate, let alone
make comparisons.
Today's part-time amateur buyers, unarmed with
facts and without a simple means for comparing products,
feel overwhelmed by full-time professional sellers.
/Consumer awareness that
-9-
Consumer awareness that manufacturers' purchasing
agents buy with detailed specifications and standards
while consumers, bereft of similar factual information
for finished products, are left to shift for themselves
creates friction.
Buyers are only too well aware of these steadily
increasing inabilities. Consumers seem to be getting
tired of trying to outguess manufacturers. Business
had better heed the warning signals.
/Proposition (6). An increasingly
-10-
Proposition (6). An increasingly impersonal
marketplace requires consumers to shift for themselves
and raises the need for "self-guidance tools" for
ascertaining "best buys".
In simpler days, life-long neighborhood residents
knew local manufacturers and dealt with well-known local
merchants. Now these old neighborhood ties have been
broken.
In today's transient society, one person out of
every five moves each year. Products emanate from remote
and little known manufacturers who distribute nation-wide.
Self-service stores and pre-packaged goods have displaced
local tradesmen as a source of information.
On the horizon are changes that will still further
impersonalize the market. Grocery retailing may shift
from stocked items for carryout, to giant sample shops.
In these stores of tomorrow, consumers will insert credit
cards into display slots and pick-up groceries at the
door or have them delivered from neighborhood distribution
centers. In the future shopping might even be from a
home-based video-phone with comparison shopping accomplished
through computers linked to telephone or cable television.
Increasing impersonalization requires product
labeling (as well as the total flow of product information
/aimed at consumers to
-11-
aimed at consumers) to stress objective criteria.
Consumers turn more and more to third persons
and a whole range of expedients to short-cut the time-
consuming and complicated task of evaluating and comparing
competing products. They rely upon: recommendations from
salesmen, friends, word of mouth, professional consumer
organizations, and government product tests; the reputation
and integrity of local stores and brand names: and assumptions
such as that the most expensive product is best, and that
the "large economy size" is less expensive.
The hit-and-miss nature and general inadequacies
of these guides creates discontent which limits the days
consumers will tolerate a marketplace devoid of "best buy"
guideposts.
(Proposition (7). Product...
-12-
Proposition (7). Product proliferation and
resultant sheer breadth of choice make it increasingly
difficult for consumers to be well informed, or even
to keep up with new developments.
The range of products grows steadily and is
constantly changing. Time magazine calculated 5 years
ago that 26,000 new products are introduced every year.
A contemporary NICB study further reported 3 out of 10
ma jor new products fail. As a result of product failures
and the short life cycle of some products (1-3 years),
products come and go SO fast that consumers do not even
have the opportunity to evaluate them.
Some observers are beginning to question whether
or not man is being overwhelmed by too much choice.
The answer turns upon man's capacity for meaningful
choice. The missing link is a shorthand means for a
discerning evaluation of goods.
/Proposition (8). Marketing
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can and
Proposition (8).
Marketing experts/are beginning
to turn consumer issues to business advantage.
Today a new attitude seems to be shaping up. An
increasing number of companies are taking a close second-look
at what consumers are saying, and zeroing in on underlaying
causes giving rise to consumer protests. Instead of running
headlong against the tide of events, enlightened companies
are riding with the tide and, at the same time, presenting
their moves as "marketing pluses":
- Motorola's "works in a drawer" modular television
circuitry helps overcome that industry's number
one consumer complaint - serviceability.
- Nabisco enriched its entire U.S. line of wheat
based crackers and cookies - a "nutrition plus".
- Ronzoni spaghetti sauce touts more meat than
competitors (a kind of percentage disclosure
of ingredients).
- Open date labeling of bread and other
perishables is being used by retail store
private label merchandise - establishing
"freshness" over competing brands.
/Giant Food Supermarkets hired
14-
- Giant Food Supermarkets hired Esther Peterson,
former White House consumer assistant -
a practical demonstration of a broader
consumer sensitivity.
This short list clearly indicates that instead of
regarding consumer issues as problems and opposing them
headlong, important customer loyalties can be won by
regarding consumer criticisms as opportunities.
The
initiative is yours for the taking.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
May 15, 1975
GERALD R. FORD
MEMORANDUM FOR:
TED MARRS
FROM:
MARGITA E. WHITE maw
FYI. I will respond after the proposed advisory
commission on refugees has been announced. In the
meantime, if it is not too late it might be worth
considering adding an Asian-American to the member-
ship, as I mentioned to John Borling. I would not
recommend Mr. Chai, however.
Attachement
THE CITY COLLEGE
OF
THE CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK
NEW YORK, N. Y. 10031
DEPARTMENT OF ASIAN STUDIES
(212) 52X 690-6776
(Home) (201) 694-7667
May 7, 1975
Mrs. Margita E. White
Assistant News Secretary
The White House
Washington, D. C.
Dear Margita:
Please accept this rather belated congratulations for
your new post at the White House. I, myself, resigned from
the University of Redlands in 1973 to accept this new posi-
tion as chairman of Asian Studies at City College of New York.
City College has the largest number of Asian students on one
campus in the U.S. (over 2,000) and a community oriented
academic program. Our students expect to work in social
agencies in Chinatown as part of their graduation require-
ments.
My letter, in fact, relates directly to the problems of
Asians in America. I was pleased to see the admission of
some 130, 000 new Asians into this country. The United States
is the land of immigrants; and President Ford's policy is
consistent with the great American tradition of this country--
to provide shelter and comfort to a desperate but free people.
On the other hand, President Ford's humanitarian gesture,
at a. time when our national economy has not been recovered and
our own minorities are suffering the greatest unemployment,
could be disastrous unless we handle this new influx of Asian
immigrants with greatest care and popular support.
As an illustration, I would recommend the following which
you may wish to communicate to the President:
(1) Establishment of a Presidential Commission including
concerned minority leaders from the academic as well as the
local community:
(a) to recommend national policy;
(b) to relate community needs;
-2-
(c) to study problems of adjustments and
to offer solutions.
(d) to initiate long-range studies by comparing
Vietnamese with recent Chinese or Cuban
immigrants, for example.
(2) Establishment of a special "Humanitarian Corp" of
teachers, social workers and technicians to offer the following
services:
(a) training refugees to speak English;
(b) training refugees to relate to "American
way of life";
(c) offer placement and career guidance.
A two to three week training workshop should be provided
for all members of the "Humanitarian Corp" at university cen-
ters to acquaint them with Vietnamese culture.
I'm merely making these recommendations as illustrative of
the kind of national policy needed to resolve the sudden influx
of immigrants to this country. Detailed proposals can be made
upon your request.
Personally, I expect to be in Asia this summer for research
on comparative ethnicity in Asian countries. However, if I can
be of use to the President to resolve some of the problems with
respect to the settlement of the newly arrived Asians, I am of
course, at his disposal.
With personal regards,
Cordially,
Winberg Chai
Professor and Chairman
WC:ee