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Digitized from Box 18 of the NSA. Presidential Country Files: East Asia and the Pacific at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library
3a
2
MEMORANDUM
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
(mm) 3351
INFORMATION
SECRDT/SENSITIVE
CONTAINS CODEWORD
August 9, 1974
OBE.,11
MEMO RANDUM FOR:
SECRETARY KISSINGER
FROM:
WILLIAM L. STEARMAN
SUBJECT:
Current Military Situation in Vietnam
At Tab A is a CIA/DIA/INR assessment of the current military situation in Vietnam
The main points of the report are:
-- The Communists have recently increased the level of their
military action in South Vietnam, and several indicators point to further
increases in the near future.
-- While it is not believed a countrywide 1972-level offensive
will occur in 1974, the Communists are clearly preparing to return to
large=scale warfare at some point in the future.
-- They have rebuilt their army in 1973-74 and now have the
capability to carry out major or all-out attacks on short notice.
-- The South Vietnamese are now in a more vulnerable position
compared with a few months ago, and the Communists recognize this.
-- If the North Vietnamese perceive the U.S. is no longer willing
to come to Saigon's defense or that the battlefield situation is turning
in their favor or both, they may opt for heavier action to make major
gains. It would, however, take them several weeks to implement
such a decision, and we would obtain advanced indication of their
preparations.
-- Over the next few months, Communist military activities
will be aimed at:
Countering GVN pacification and military operations;
Expanding control over territory and populations; and
Weakening the GVN and the ARVN.
in TORD
SECRET /SENSITIVE
29
Document source description
This item is a National Security Council memorandum from William L. Stearman to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
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Context sent to Scholar
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"ocrText": "Digitized from Box 18 of the NSA. Presidential Country Files: East Asia and the Pacific at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library\n3a\n2\nMEMORANDUM\nNATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL\n(mm) 3351\nINFORMATION\nSECRDT/SENSITIVE\nCONTAINS CODEWORD\nAugust 9, 1974\nOBE.,11\nMEMO RANDUM FOR:\nSECRETARY KISSINGER\nFROM:\nWILLIAM L. STEARMAN\nSUBJECT:\nCurrent Military Situation in Vietnam\nAt Tab A is a CIA/DIA/INR assessment of the current military situation in Vietnam\nThe main points of the report are:\n-- The Communists have recently increased the level of their\nmilitary action in South Vietnam, and several indicators point to further\nincreases in the near future.\n-- While it is not believed a countrywide 1972-level offensive\nwill occur in 1974, the Communists are clearly preparing to return to\nlarge=scale warfare at some point in the future.\n-- They have rebuilt their army in 1973-74 and now have the\ncapability to carry out major or all-out attacks on short notice.\n-- The South Vietnamese are now in a more vulnerable position\ncompared with a few months ago, and the Communists recognize this.\n-- If the North Vietnamese perceive the U.S. is no longer willing\nto come to Saigon's defense or that the battlefield situation is turning\nin their favor or both, they may opt for heavier action to make major\ngains. It would, however, take them several weeks to implement\nsuch a decision, and we would obtain advanced indication of their\npreparations.\n-- Over the next few months, Communist military activities\nwill be aimed at:\nCountering GVN pacification and military operations;\nExpanding control over territory and populations; and\nWeakening the GVN and the ARVN.\nin TORD\nSECRET /SENSITIVE\n29"
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