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TOP SECRET - GDS
- 4 -
He indicated that he needed additional tactical mobility, and wished
for additional helicopters. However, while helicopters would be
useful, the comment may well have been spurred by our associations
in 1967, when I supplied helicopter airlift and gunship cover to his
2d ARVN Divison.
I talked about the problems created in the northern provinces by
the presence of families of military personnel near the tactical
positions of the GVN forces, and asked if he had any plans to withdraw
the families in the more exposed positions to Saigon. He said he had
no such plans, and that there was not really any place that they could
withdraw to - and that the families would stand on position with his
soldiers. While not very realistic, this probably indicates the mental
attitude which will be evident when the pressure increases.
In response to questions on the effectiveness of the South Vietnamese
Air Force, General Toan had no kind words, indicating that the Air
Force was ineffective, would not press in on targets in support of
the ground forces in the face of enemy air defenses; dropped their
bombs from extremely high altitude, and had even bombed General
Toan's own troops recently.
-- Discussions on the political scene and higher headquarters were very
limited - General Toan did not want to discuss his views, but
expressed himself in a few short profane terms.
FORD
We then discussed the probable scenario for future events in MR III. Our
views concided: expecting a major effort to isolate Tay Ninh and the 25th
OFFICE) P. <,
ARVN Division as a prime effort, with a large secondary attack toward the
Bien Hoa-Long Binh-Saigon complex from the northeast.
This would probably lead to a rapidly disintegrating tactical situation through-
out MR III, and could trigger a GVN effort to shift a division north from the
Delta. However, one division would not have the added capability to lend
real stability, and the vacuum in the Delta would cause a more rapid collapse
there.
Saigon will probably become a city under siege at a very early point in time -
possibly the last week in April.
One event which could alter the situation in all of the remaining South Vietnamese
forces would be the replacement of President Thieu. There is a vast bitter-
ness against Thieu for the reverses in the northern provinces. Correctly
or not, Thieu is being blamed for the military disasters in MR I and II.
TOP SECRET - GDS
Document source description
This memorandum provides Clinton E. Granger's views on the situation in South Vietnam and his assessment of General Fred C. Weyand's report.
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Document data
- ID
- 7367505
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Context sent to Scholar
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"ocrText": "TOP SECRET - GDS\n- 4 -\nHe indicated that he needed additional tactical mobility, and wished\nfor additional helicopters. However, while helicopters would be\nuseful, the comment may well have been spurred by our associations\nin 1967, when I supplied helicopter airlift and gunship cover to his\n2d ARVN Divison.\nI talked about the problems created in the northern provinces by\nthe presence of families of military personnel near the tactical\npositions of the GVN forces, and asked if he had any plans to withdraw\nthe families in the more exposed positions to Saigon. He said he had\nno such plans, and that there was not really any place that they could\nwithdraw to - and that the families would stand on position with his\nsoldiers. While not very realistic, this probably indicates the mental\nattitude which will be evident when the pressure increases.\nIn response to questions on the effectiveness of the South Vietnamese\nAir Force, General Toan had no kind words, indicating that the Air\nForce was ineffective, would not press in on targets in support of\nthe ground forces in the face of enemy air defenses; dropped their\nbombs from extremely high altitude, and had even bombed General\nToan's own troops recently.\n-- Discussions on the political scene and higher headquarters were very\nlimited - General Toan did not want to discuss his views, but\nexpressed himself in a few short profane terms.\nFORD\nWe then discussed the probable scenario for future events in MR III. Our\nviews concided: expecting a major effort to isolate Tay Ninh and the 25th\nOFFICE) P. <,\nARVN Division as a prime effort, with a large secondary attack toward the\nBien Hoa-Long Binh-Saigon complex from the northeast.\nThis would probably lead to a rapidly disintegrating tactical situation through-\nout MR III, and could trigger a GVN effort to shift a division north from the\nDelta. However, one division would not have the added capability to lend\nreal stability, and the vacuum in the Delta would cause a more rapid collapse\nthere.\nSaigon will probably become a city under siege at a very early point in time -\npossibly the last week in April.\nOne event which could alter the situation in all of the remaining South Vietnamese\nforces would be the replacement of President Thieu. There is a vast bitter-\nness against Thieu for the reverses in the northern provinces. Correctly\nor not, Thieu is being blamed for the military disasters in MR I and II.\nTOP SECRET - GDS"
}