Memorandum Secretary of State Henry Kissinger Regarding Ominous Developments in Vietnam

Digitized from Box 54 of the NSA. Presidential Files ofNSC Logged Documents at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library MEMORANDUM - NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL 1509 SEGRET/SENSITIVE URGENT INFORMATION March 12, 1975 HAK make to MEMORANDUM FOR: SECRETARY KISSINGER kmlon FROM: WILLIAM L. STEARMAN SUBJECT: Ominous Developments in Vietnam A number of recent significant military and political developments in Vietnam provide an ominous indication of North Vietnamese strategy and intentions for the months to come. The high level of military activity since March 10 reinforces this view. These new developments are: In December of 1974 the 23rd plenum of the Lao Dong Party Central Committee issued Resolution 23. This may have dealt with a new policy toward the South. -- In late February and early March, high level Soviet and PRC delegations visited Hanoi. Soviet Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikolay Firyubin led the Soviet group. The presence of the PRC delegation and Firyubin in Hanoi may be the result of a major Hanoi policy change relating to the war in South Vietnam. -- Communications intelligence indicates that as of March 10, : North Vietnam is apparently deploying to the South an integral unit, the size and identity of which are unknown. This is in addition to the probable movement of elements of the 341st NVA Division from Quang Binh in North Vietnam across the DMZ into Quang Tri and the confirmed movement of the 968th Division from Laos into the central highlands. -- The forward element of COSVN has expanded its communications and is now in contact with at least three divisions and a number of inde- pendent units in the Tay Ninh -- Parrots Beak Area. This forward element will probably be the senior tactical control unit in the expected coordinated Communist offensive in MR 3. Its existence is more evidence of forthcoming multi-regiment size attacks in that area. FORD 8. DECLASSIFIED E.O. 12958, Sec. 3.5 NSC Memo, 11/24/98, State Dept. Guidelines own) SEGRET/SENSITIVE By KBH NARA, Date 3/2/00