South Vietnam: Thieu Unlikely to Win Emergency Powers

This item is an intelligence report from the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the Department of State.

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SEGRER/MO FOREIGM DISSEM/LIMDIS 4 - Senate, holding the balance of power between the government bloc and the usually anti-government Buddhist bloc. In recent years the Catholics have grown disenchanted with the Thieu regime, shifting gradually toward moderate opposition and frequent tactical alliance with the Buddhists. Thieu's reaction to this development has vacillated between wrath at "betrayal" and confidence that eventually the Catholics would return unbidden to the fold. Thieu's ardent courting of Catholic support is in his view a major concession, and he is doubtless chagrined that Catholic leader (and Senate Chaimian) Nguyen van Huyen has, apparently, declined to commit his bloc to support the emergency powers bill. Thieu Sounds The Tocsin. While seeking Catholic support for the emergency powers legislation, Thieu decided to act unilaterally in other areas to holster the nation's sagging morale. llis moves were vigorous and apparently effective, but they nonetheless undercut the regime's efforts to win authority to rule by decree. Thieu sacked several generals, including two of the four regional commanders (a unanimous Senate resolution endorsed the military shakeup). He reiterated orders that looters and arsonists be shot on sight. A few days later, surprised and deeply grati fied by the US decision to interdict North Vietnam, Thieu seized the opportunity to give a much- needed accounting of the military situation to the South Vietnamese SECRETAIO FOREIGN DISSEW/LIMDIS