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SECRET
REVIEW OF THE WORLD SITUATION AS IT RELATES TO THE SECURITY
OF THE UNITED STATES
SUMMARY
1. The situation in China has deteriorated to the point where its stabilization by
the Nationalist Government is considered to be out of the question. A coalition gov-
ernment, with a non-Communist front but with control securely in Communist hands,
is the most likely political development. Such a government would probably present
itself as a continuation of its predecessor and would seek corresponding international
benefits. The consequences of a Communist triumph in China will be sharply felt in
the peripheral areas of Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia, where the morale of Com-
munist groups will be stepped up and closer coordination of their activities can be
expected. Action to protect US security interests in the Far East will for some time
have to be confined largely to the peripheral areas. Longer term possibilities with
respect to China itself need not, however, be entirely dismissed. The capacity of the
Chinese Communist Party to stabilize China is untested and it is considered that the
problems of stabilization may offer opportunities at a later date for the re-establish-
ment of discreet US influence.
2. The relations of the USSR and the Satellite States of Eastern Europe are con-
sidered to be in a condition of uneasy stability. In view of this, the USSR is obliged
to measure the actual degree of reliable control it exercises in this area as an essential
to the development of its general policy for Germany and Western Europe. In particu-
lar, it is believed that the Satellite States cannot at the present time be used as a
reliable base for more than political and economic operations. Controls would have
to be drastically increased to ensure support for military operations.
3. In the Near East initiative lies almost wholly in Israeli hands and the Arab
States are uncomfortably suspended between the over-stimulated opinions of their
citizens and their suspicions of each other.
4. Significant Trends: (a) World Labor is now clearly aligning itself in terms of
the
East-West conflict; (b) the Conference of Commonwealth Prime Ministers has
ended on a note of of unexpected solidarity; (c) the current trend toward an admitted
partition of Germany is being accelerated by economic, political, and strategic
considerations.
5. Particular situations are noted in Paraguay and Peru, in Greece and Turkey.
Note: This review has not been coordinated with the intelligence organizations of the Departments
of State, Army, Navy, and Air Force.
The information herein is as of 14 November 1948.
DECLASSIFIED
a a 11652, Sec. 3(E) and S(D) or (E)
C
I-A letter, April 49743-29-77
Bry NLT- He NARS Date 4-15-77
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"ocrText": "SECRET\nREVIEW OF THE WORLD SITUATION AS IT RELATES TO THE SECURITY\nOF THE UNITED STATES\nSUMMARY\n1. The situation in China has deteriorated to the point where its stabilization by\nthe Nationalist Government is considered to be out of the question. A coalition gov-\nernment, with a non-Communist front but with control securely in Communist hands,\nis the most likely political development. Such a government would probably present\nitself as a continuation of its predecessor and would seek corresponding international\nbenefits. The consequences of a Communist triumph in China will be sharply felt in\nthe peripheral areas of Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia, where the morale of Com-\nmunist groups will be stepped up and closer coordination of their activities can be\nexpected. Action to protect US security interests in the Far East will for some time\nhave to be confined largely to the peripheral areas. Longer term possibilities with\nrespect to China itself need not, however, be entirely dismissed. The capacity of the\nChinese Communist Party to stabilize China is untested and it is considered that the\nproblems of stabilization may offer opportunities at a later date for the re-establish-\nment of discreet US influence.\n2. The relations of the USSR and the Satellite States of Eastern Europe are con-\nsidered to be in a condition of uneasy stability. In view of this, the USSR is obliged\nto measure the actual degree of reliable control it exercises in this area as an essential\nto the development of its general policy for Germany and Western Europe. In particu-\nlar, it is believed that the Satellite States cannot at the present time be used as a\nreliable base for more than political and economic operations. Controls would have\nto be drastically increased to ensure support for military operations.\n3. In the Near East initiative lies almost wholly in Israeli hands and the Arab\nStates are uncomfortably suspended between the over-stimulated opinions of their\ncitizens and their suspicions of each other.\n4. Significant Trends: (a) World Labor is now clearly aligning itself in terms of\nthe\nEast-West conflict; (b) the Conference of Commonwealth Prime Ministers has\nended on a note of of unexpected solidarity; (c) the current trend toward an admitted\npartition of Germany is being accelerated by economic, political, and strategic\nconsiderations.\n5. Particular situations are noted in Paraguay and Peru, in Greece and Turkey.\nNote: This review has not been coordinated with the intelligence organizations of the Departments\nof State, Army, Navy, and Air Force.\nThe information herein is as of 14 November 1948.\nDECLASSIFIED\na a 11652, Sec. 3(E) and S(D) or (E)\nC\nI-A letter, April 49743-29-77\nBry NLT- He NARS Date 4-15-77"
}