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THUMAN
ORE 51
s ARCHIVES NATIONAL AND
RECORDS
a
SERVICE*
is
17 October 1947
Copy No.
1
THE CURRENT SITUATION IN GREECE
1.
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF GREECE.
Greece is the last Balkan state resisting Soviet domination. Should the USSR
obtain control of Greece directly or through the satellites, the USSR would (a)
complete its domination of the Balkans; (b) be able to extend and consolidate the po-
sition in the Aegean which control of Macedonia and Thrace would give the Soviet
Union; (c) secure Salonika, historical southern terminus of the land route from the
Danubian Basin; and (d) gain a strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, thereby
outflanking Turkey and the Dardanelles, threatening the Suez, and endangering the
polities of the Near East.
In recognition of these facts the Greek-Turkish aid bill was formulated. The
extension of aid to Greece and Turkey was the first clear announcement to the world
at large that the United States intended to help and support those countries which
resisted Soviet encroachment. The continued ability of Greece to resist with US aid
will therefore be closely watched by both the Eastern and Western blocs and will have
an important influence on the future success of US foreign policy in Europe and the
Near East.
While Greece has had many forms of government, the great majority of the Greeks
have remained highly individualistic and have a strong sense of political freedom.
Today among the leaders of both the Right and the Left there is a strong tendency,
born of fear, towards extreme politics. Were Greece given a guarantee of national
independence, the vast center elements in the country would again be able to assert
their democratic principles and would be able to give constructive support to the
Western democracies and the United Nations.
Militarily Greece could not withstand an attack by a major power or by a combin-
ation of the Balkan satellites. Its independence and the continued security of its
important strategic points can at the moment be guaranteed only by the United States.
2.
PROBABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS.
In the over-all strategic plans for the Near East, a top priority objective of the
USSR is to take control of Greece, through the Balkan satellites, the Greek Com-
munists, or both. Should complete realization of the objective fail, Yugoslavia may
attempt to detach Greek or "Aegean" Macedonia for incorporation, along with Yugoslav
Macedonia, as a state in a federated Yugoslavia. Detachment of Macedonia would be
accompanied by detachment of Thrace by Bulgaria.
To accomplish its ends in Greece, the USSR will continue to: (a) disseminate
propaganda to discredit the Greek Government; (b) attempt to block every effort of
the UN to solve the Greek problem; (c) attempt, through guerrilla sabotage and des-
Note: This paper has been coordinated with the intelligence organizations of the Departments of
State, Army, Navy, and Air Forces.
1
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"ocrText": "THUMAN\nORE 51\ns ARCHIVES NATIONAL AND\nRECORDS\na\nSERVICE*\nis\n17 October 1947\nCopy No.\n1\nTHE CURRENT SITUATION IN GREECE\n1.\nSTRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF GREECE.\nGreece is the last Balkan state resisting Soviet domination. Should the USSR\nobtain control of Greece directly or through the satellites, the USSR would (a)\ncomplete its domination of the Balkans; (b) be able to extend and consolidate the po-\nsition in the Aegean which control of Macedonia and Thrace would give the Soviet\nUnion; (c) secure Salonika, historical southern terminus of the land route from the\nDanubian Basin; and (d) gain a strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, thereby\noutflanking Turkey and the Dardanelles, threatening the Suez, and endangering the\npolities of the Near East.\nIn recognition of these facts the Greek-Turkish aid bill was formulated. The\nextension of aid to Greece and Turkey was the first clear announcement to the world\nat large that the United States intended to help and support those countries which\nresisted Soviet encroachment. The continued ability of Greece to resist with US aid\nwill therefore be closely watched by both the Eastern and Western blocs and will have\nan important influence on the future success of US foreign policy in Europe and the\nNear East.\nWhile Greece has had many forms of government, the great majority of the Greeks\nhave remained highly individualistic and have a strong sense of political freedom.\nToday among the leaders of both the Right and the Left there is a strong tendency,\nborn of fear, towards extreme politics. Were Greece given a guarantee of national\nindependence, the vast center elements in the country would again be able to assert\ntheir democratic principles and would be able to give constructive support to the\nWestern democracies and the United Nations.\nMilitarily Greece could not withstand an attack by a major power or by a combin-\nation of the Balkan satellites. Its independence and the continued security of its\nimportant strategic points can at the moment be guaranteed only by the United States.\n2.\nPROBABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS.\nIn the over-all strategic plans for the Near East, a top priority objective of the\nUSSR is to take control of Greece, through the Balkan satellites, the Greek Com-\nmunists, or both. Should complete realization of the objective fail, Yugoslavia may\nattempt to detach Greek or \"Aegean\" Macedonia for incorporation, along with Yugoslav\nMacedonia, as a state in a federated Yugoslavia. Detachment of Macedonia would be\naccompanied by detachment of Thrace by Bulgaria.\nTo accomplish its ends in Greece, the USSR will continue to: (a) disseminate\npropaganda to discredit the Greek Government; (b) attempt to block every effort of\nthe UN to solve the Greek problem; (c) attempt, through guerrilla sabotage and des-\nNote: This paper has been coordinated with the intelligence organizations of the Departments of\nState, Army, Navy, and Air Forces.\n1"
}