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    "label": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 52, The Current Situation in the Mediterranean and the Near East",
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    "title": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 52, The Current Situation in the Mediterranean and the Near East",
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        {
            "day": 17,
            "logicalDate": "1947-10-17",
            "month": 10,
            "year": 1947
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    "ocrText": "TROMAN\nORE 52\n3. ARCHIVES NATIONAL KECORDS\nAND\nSERVICE'\n17 October 1947\nin\nCopy No.\n1\nTHE CURRENT SITUATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN\nAND THE NEAR EAST\n1.\nSTRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS.\nAccess to the oil of the Persian Gulf area and the denial of control of the Mediter-\nranean to a major, hostile, expansionist power are deemed to be essential to the\nsecurity of the US. From this point of view the major threat to United States security\nlies in the possibility of progressive Soviet penetration into the Mediterranean and\nNear East, either directly, through satellites, or through local Communist action.\nIn viewing the Mediterranean-Near Eastern area as a whole, it must be noted\nthat the strategic position in the western Mediterranean differs in two important aspects\nfrom that in the eastern Mediterranean. In the western Mediterranean, the key\ncountries, France, Italy, and Spain, are integral parts of the European as well as the\nMediterranean area, not only through their geographic positions on the European\nshores of the Mediterranean but also because of their colonies in North Africa (Italy\nat this moment, however, has no control over its African colonies). In consequence,\nthese countries are directly influenced by the over-all developments in Europe as well\nas by those in the Mediterranean and, conversely, developments in these countries\nvitally affect both the Mediterranean and European areas. Secondly, they are not\ncontiguous to the USSR, although Italy borders on a Soviet satellite. In the eastern\nMediterranean, on the other hand, the key countries can be considered primarily as in-\ntegral parts of the Mediterranean-Near Eastern area. Two of them, Turkey and Iran,\nhave extensive common frontiers with the USSR, while Greece borders on three Soviet\nsatellites.\nFrom the point of view of the security of the Mediterranean-Near Eastern area,\nthe existence in France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, and Iran of stable regimes,\nfriendly to the US, would constitute a barrier to Soviet encroachment. Geographically,\nsuch a barrier would act as a safeguard against Soviet penetration into the Mediter-\nranean basin and the Near and Middle East. It would not of itself, however, prevent\nthe USSR from developing a dangerous degree of influence in the Arab states and North\nAfrica through exploitation of the antagonisms which exist in those areas.\n2.\nCRITICAL SITUATIONS IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE.\na. Italy.\nThe Italian Government faces an immediate economic crisis. Unless it re-\nceives prompt and effective aid and adopts more realistic and vigorous economic policies,\nthere will ensue an economic collapse which might possibly lead to a Communist ac-\ncession to power. Such an event would not only bring Italy within the Soviet orbit,\nbut would also have a profound psychological effect throughout Western Europe, the\nNote: This paper has been coordinated with the intelligence organizations of the Departments of\nState, Army, Navy, and Air Forces.\n1.\nSECRET"
}