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US and the UK. While irresponsible tribesmen and fanatic Moslems are haphazardly
blowing up parts of the pipelines and attacking occasional Americans, it is possible that
the responsible governments will refuse to sign pipeline conventions, oil concessions,
civil air agreements, and trade pacts. The various projects which are necessary to
raise the standard of living cannot be carried through without US assistance and guid-
ance. With the US committed to partition, such developments will be shelved indefi-
nitely. The poverty, unrest, and hopelessness upon which Communist propaganda
thrives will increase throughout the Arab world, and Soviet agents (already being
smuggled into Palestine as Jewish DP's) will scatter into the other Arab states and there
attempt to organize so-called "democratic movements" such as the one existing today
in Greece.
In the meantime, the war in Palestine, barring international armed intervention,
will increase in intensity. The Jewish forces will initially have the advantage. How-
ever, as the Arabs gradually coordinate their war effort, the Jews will be forced to with-
draw from isolated positions, and having been drawn into a war of attrition, will
gradually be defeated. Unless they are able to obtain significant outside aid in terms
of manpower and matériel, the Jews will be able to hold out no longer than two years.
The UN, having recommended partition, would have to consider the serious threat
to the peace resulting from the recommendation. It would, in effect, be compelled to
take steps to enforce partition, with the major powers acting as the instruments of
enforcement. The dangerous potentialities of such a development to US-Arab and
US-USSR relations need no emphasis.
17
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"ocrText": "SECRET\nUS and the UK. While irresponsible tribesmen and fanatic Moslems are haphazardly\nblowing up parts of the pipelines and attacking occasional Americans, it is possible that\nthe responsible governments will refuse to sign pipeline conventions, oil concessions,\ncivil air agreements, and trade pacts. The various projects which are necessary to\nraise the standard of living cannot be carried through without US assistance and guid-\nance. With the US committed to partition, such developments will be shelved indefi-\nnitely. The poverty, unrest, and hopelessness upon which Communist propaganda\nthrives will increase throughout the Arab world, and Soviet agents (already being\nsmuggled into Palestine as Jewish DP's) will scatter into the other Arab states and there\nattempt to organize so-called \"democratic movements\" such as the one existing today\nin Greece.\nIn the meantime, the war in Palestine, barring international armed intervention,\nwill increase in intensity. The Jewish forces will initially have the advantage. How-\never, as the Arabs gradually coordinate their war effort, the Jews will be forced to with-\ndraw from isolated positions, and having been drawn into a war of attrition, will\ngradually be defeated. Unless they are able to obtain significant outside aid in terms\nof manpower and matériel, the Jews will be able to hold out no longer than two years.\nThe UN, having recommended partition, would have to consider the serious threat\nto the peace resulting from the recommendation. It would, in effect, be compelled to\ntake steps to enforce partition, with the major powers acting as the instruments of\nenforcement. The dangerous potentialities of such a development to US-Arab and\nUS-USSR relations need no emphasis.\n17\nSECRET"
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