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    "label": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 55, The Consequences of the Partition of Palestine",
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    "title": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 55, The Consequences of the Partition of Palestine",
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        {
            "day": 28,
            "logicalDate": "1947-11-28",
            "month": 11,
            "year": 1947
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    "ocrText": "ORE 55\nSECRET\n28 November 1947\nCopy No.\n1\nTHE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PARTITION OF PALESTINE\nSUMMARY\nArmed hostilities between Jews and Arabs will break out if the UN General Assembly\naccepts the plan to partition Palestine into Jewish and Arab States as recommended\nby the UN Special Committee on Palestine (UNSCOP).\nInflamed by nationalism and religious fervor, Arabs in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq,\nTransjordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia as well as Palestine are determined to fight\nagainst any force, or combination of forces, which attempts to set up a Jewish state\nin Palestine. While the governments of the Arab states are not expected to make\nofficial declarations of war, they will not attempt to keep their people (especially\nfanatical tribesmen) from joining the battle; they may even encourage such action and\nfurnish clandestine assistance as well.\nIn composition, the Arab forces will vary from relatively well controlled quasi-\nmilitary bands to the loose tribal organization of the nomads. The largest number\nactively engaged against the Jews at any one time will probably be between 100,000\nand 200,000. The Arabs are good guerrilla fighters, and they will be well supplied\nwith small arms and will also undoubtedly obtain some planes and tanks.\nThe Zionists, for their part, are determined to have a state in Palestine or, in the\nview of extreme elements, all of Palestine and Transjordan as well. Whatever the\nUN recommends, they will attempt to establish a Jewish state after the British with-\ndrawal (now set by the British for August 1948). The Jews are expected to be able to\nmobilize some 200,000 fighters in Palestine, supplemented to a limited extent by volun-\nteers and recruits from abroad. The Jewish armed groups in Palestine are well equipped\nand well trained in commando tactics. Initially, they will achieve marked success\nover the Arabs because of superior organization and equipment. As the war of attrition\ndevelops, however, the Jewish economy (severely strained by mobilization) will break\ndown; furthermore, the Jews will be unable continuously to protect their extended\nsupply lines and isolated settlements or to plant and cultivate their fields in the face\nof constant harassing, \"hit and run\" Arab attacks. Without substantial outside aid\nin terms of manpower and material, they will be able to hold out no longer than two\nyears.\nThe US, by supporting partition, has already lost much of its prestige in the\nNear East. In the event that partition is imposed on Palestine, the resulting conflict\nwill seriously disturb the social, economic, and political stability of the Arab world,\nand US commercial and strategic interests will be dangerously jeopardized. While ir-\nresponsible tribesmen and fanatic Moslems are haphazardly blowing up parts of the\noil pipelines and attacking occasional Americans, it is possible that the responsible\ngovernments will refuse to sign pipeline conventions, oil concessions, civil air agree-\nments, and trade pacts. The various projects which are necessary to raise the standard\nNote: This paper has been coordinated with the intelligence organizations of the Departments of\nState, Army, Navy, and Air Forces.\n1"
}