Ask the Scholar

{
    "localId": "225248902",
    "label": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 38-48, Possible Developments from the Palestine Truce",
    "core": "doc",
    "dtoType": "document",
    "citationUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/225248902"
}

{
    "id": "225248902",
    "sourceUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/225248902",
    "contentType": "document",
    "title": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 38-48, Possible Developments from the Palestine Truce",
    "citationUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/225248902",
    "collections": [
        "President's Secretary's Files (Truman Administration)",
        "Intelligence Files"
    ],
    "iiifBase": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/lz/presidential-libraries/truman/hst-psf/602196/875475/875475-07-01.jpg",
    "thumbnailUrl": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/lz/presidential-libraries/truman/hst-psf/602196/875475/875475-07-01.jpg",
    "largeImageUrl": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/lz/presidential-libraries/truman/hst-psf/602196/875475/875475-07-01.jpg",
    "imageCount": 14,
    "hasImages": true,
    "source": "import",
    "hasTranscription": false
}

{
    "url": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/225248902",
    "naId": 225248902,
    "levelOfDescription": "item",
    "productionDates": [
        {
            "day": 27,
            "logicalDate": "1948-07-27",
            "month": 7,
            "year": 1948
        }
    ],
    "recordType": "description",
    "ocrSource": "nara-archive"
}

{
    "seq": 8,
    "pageIndex": 0,
    "type": "photo",
    "url": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/lz/presidential-libraries/truman/hst-psf/602196/875475/875475-07-08.jpg",
    "mediaId": "1fa6f3483cf7d03d",
    "ocrText": "SECRET\na compromise agreement will be reached between Arabs and Jews for a considerable\nperiod of time. Judging from present events in Palestine and should the effectiveness\nof the observer machinery be no better than during the first truce, it is probable that\nsporadic fighting will continue and that the Jews will greatly increase their military\npotential under the cloak of the truce. Thus the state of Israel would be be further\nconsolidated, and the Arabs would be further weakened and isolated. If, however, the\ntruce is effectively enforced and the present comparatively moderate Arab governments\ncan stay in power, the truce may be prolonged by the Arabs in the hope that a revision\nof the UN partition resolution may be secured at the September meeting of the Gen-\neral Assembly or that the issue will be submitted to the International Court of Justice.\nIf, on the other hand, these governments are overthrown, the Arabs will resume the\nfight, be seriously defeated, break all contact with the US and the UK, and almost cer-\ntainly (in one way or another) eventually find themselves open to Soviet exploitation.*\n* If, however, a settlement is imposed upon the Arabs by force, it should be pointed out that\nguerrilla warfare may be expected to continue for an indefinite period. Furthermore, resistance\nto authority through well proved nuisance techniques, boycotts, and other political devices may\ndefeat ultimately the goal of permanent peace and security in Palestine and the Middle East.\nbefore\nsignificant\ngain\nwas\nDuring period the truce the Jews gained considerably from point\nof view. They and improved their existing fortifications new\nones in the areas recently taken over from the Arabs. They Improved the by-pass\nroad to Jerusalem, which skirts Arab-held Latrun and Bab el Wad en the main road\nfrom to Tol-Aviv. They recruited and trained troops both abroad and in\nPalestine, and reinforcements were fown in from abroad. They increased their supply\nof seroplanes, and artiliery. The Jews brought beavy artiliery into the Jerusa\nJent ares and are reported to have acquired at least 13 German MB-109 fighter planes-\nwhich can be converted into Ught bombers-and 3 B-17's. (They now reported to\npossess a total ME-109's, of which 24 are operattional.) The situation In\nJeruzaien during the truce.\nThe gaiss during the truce, but these were\npared gains. The Arabs received some Italian and arms\nbrought and ammunition to the front.\nThe truce resolted in 80 groat an Improvement in the Jewish capabilities that the\nJews now be strong enough to launch a full-scale offensive and drive the Arab\nforces of Pajestins, Eventa during the truce, and the enormous increase in Jewish\nstrength resulting from them, considerably change the previoualy held estimate of the\nprobable course of the in Palestine. The Arabs logistical position very\nand\ntheir\nexceedingly\nestimated\nnot\nprevions\nfor\nthan\ntwo\nto\nthen montha.\n4\nSECRET"
}