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    "label": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 47/1, The Current Situation in Italy",
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    "title": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 47/1, The Current Situation in Italy",
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        {
            "day": 16,
            "logicalDate": "1948-02-16",
            "month": 2,
            "year": 1948
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    "ocrText": "ORE 47/1\n2020702\nCopy No.\n1\nS.\nARCHIVES AND\nRECORDS\nN\nTHE CURRENT SITUATION IN ITALY\n:\nSERVICE**\nSUMMARY\nBecause of its position on the edge of the Soviet sphere, Italy is important in terms\nof US security. The present Italian Government, composed of centrist Christian Demo-\ncrats and a few representatives of the moderate Left, is anti-Communist and Western-\noriented. Mainly because of Vatican support and popular association with US aid,\nPremier De Gasperi's Christian Democratic Party stands out as the strongest opponent\nof Italian Communism. Certain members of the Moderate Left, however, are also\nattempting to form an electoral combination to combat the Communist-led People's\nBloc in the spring elections. Rightist factions in Italy have no leader comparable to\nDe Gaulle but are unanimous in their opposition to Communism and, therefore, find it\nexpedient to support a Western orientation.\nThe present Government will continue without radical change until the national\nelections in April, the outcome of which will be influenced by the results of US interim\naid and the prospect for the ERP. It appears that neither the Communist-led bloc\nnor the Christian Democrats will gain a clear-cut majority and that the moderate Left\nwill probably do poorly. As a result, the rightist parties will hold the balance of power.\nHaving failed to win dominance through the elections, the Communists are\nexpected to launch a campaign of general strikes, or even to attempt armed insurrec-\ntion should the Kremlin find such extreme measures necessary.\nIn the event of a Communist uprising, the Italian Government's armed forces\nwould be capable of maintaining internal security provided (1) the current reorgani-\nzation had achieved an integrated defense system; (2) additional modern equipment\nhad been secured; and (3) the Communists had not received appreciable outside aid.\nThe armed forces are incapable of offensive and could fight only a limited defensive war.\nThe Communists are believed to possess the military capacity of gaining temporary\ncontrol of North Italy. If they receive material assistance from Yugoslavia and/or\nFrance, the Government will require foreign aid to regain control of the area.\nAlthough US interim aid totaling some 200 million dollars will provide food and\nfuel to prevent extreme hardship until 31 March 1948, most Italians are still enduring\nprivations and are dissatisfied with their working and living conditions. The cessation\nof essential imports from abroad would lead to a politically explosive situation.\nCurrent foreign policy is basically influenced by problems of economic rehabilita-\ntion. The country looks to the US for necessary economic aid and protection against\nSoviet and Yugoslav demands. Because Yugoslavia continues its attempts to gain\ncomplete control of the Free Territory of Trieste, the US and UK are determined to\npostpone appointment of a governor indefinitely.\nNote: The information in this report is as of 26 January 1948, at which time the report was submit-\nted to the member agencies of the Interdepartmental Advisory Council for coordination.\nThe intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Army, Navy, and Air Force have\nconcurred in this report.\n1"
}