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DISSENT OF THE OFFICE OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE
1.
The Office of Naval Intelligence dissents from those portions (Section IV and part
of Summary) of ORE 50-48 which estimate the probable Argentine policy in the event
of a US-USSR war before 1952, for the following reasons:
a.
ONI believes that, in the event of a US-USSR war, Argentina would probably
follow a course of Neutrality rather than cobelligerency on the side of the US, because:
(1)
Her foreign policy will be opportunistic and maintenance of a neutral
position would be to her advantage.
(2)
Neutrality would not necessarily mean the loss of Argentine leadership
in South America. Basically she is far superior to other Latin nations and this enor-
mous advantage is not lost by non-participation in a war on the other side of the world.
(3) The Communist threat to Argentina is too remote to be used as "pressure
for a declaration of war".
b. ONI does not believe that the advantages to the US of Argentine cobelligerency
would necessarily outweigh the disadvantages. "Benevolent" neutrality might furnish
the US with required Argentine support but with fewer US obligations.
25
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"ocrText": "DISSENT OF THE OFFICE OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE\n1.\nThe Office of Naval Intelligence dissents from those portions (Section IV and part\nof Summary) of ORE 50-48 which estimate the probable Argentine policy in the event\nof a US-USSR war before 1952, for the following reasons:\na.\nONI believes that, in the event of a US-USSR war, Argentina would probably\nfollow a course of Neutrality rather than cobelligerency on the side of the US, because:\n(1)\nHer foreign policy will be opportunistic and maintenance of a neutral\nposition would be to her advantage.\n(2)\nNeutrality would not necessarily mean the loss of Argentine leadership\nin South America. Basically she is far superior to other Latin nations and this enor-\nmous advantage is not lost by non-participation in a war on the other side of the world.\n(3) The Communist threat to Argentina is too remote to be used as \"pressure\nfor a declaration of war\".\nb. ONI does not believe that the advantages to the US of Argentine cobelligerency\nwould necessarily outweigh the disadvantages. \"Benevolent\" neutrality might furnish\nthe US with required Argentine support but with fewer US obligations.\n25"
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