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{
    "localId": "225249191",
    "label": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 65-48, The Current Situation in Iran",
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    "id": "225249191",
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    "contentType": "document",
    "title": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 65-48, The Current Situation in Iran",
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        "President's Secretary's Files (Truman Administration)",
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    "productionDates": [
        {
            "day": 8,
            "logicalDate": "1948-10-08",
            "month": 10,
            "year": 1948
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{
    "seq": 6,
    "pageIndex": 0,
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    "ocrText": "THE CURRENT SITUATION IN IRAN\n(September 1948)\n1.\nPOLITICAL SITUATION.\nPolitical power in Iran rests with an oligarchy of wealthy landowners, merchants,\narmy officers, and tribal chieftains over whom neither the young Shah nor any other\npolitical figure has recently been able to exercise effective sustained leadership. In\nthe fall of 1947, Prime Minister Ahmad Qavam showed promise of establishing such\nleadership. In the new Majlis more than 70 of the 122 deputies seated were members of\nthe Democrats of Iran Party, which Qavam personally sponsored, and the body dis-\nplayed an early appearance of cohesion by its overwhelming rejection of the Soviet-\nIranian oil protocol on 22 October. Disintegration of the Democrats of Iran was\nalready under way, however, and on 10 December Qavam's government fell. It was\nsucceeded by a conservative, do-nothing cabinet under the respected but unaggressive\nelder statesman, Ibrahim Hakimi.\nBy May 1948 Qavam had regained strong influence in the Majlis, but he apparently\ndid not care to become prime minister until circumstances should force the Shah\n(who views him as a rival for political power) to recall him to office. When the Hakimi\ncabinet finally toppled after six shaky months in office, Qavam gave tacit support to\nAbdol Hosein Hajir, a partisan of the Shah, and thus made possible the latter's election\n(on 13 June 1948) as head of the incumbent government. Hajir has no organized follow-\ning of his own and is bitterly opposed by the anti-court faction, fanatically religious\nelements, and the leftists. His continuance in office will accordingly depend not only\non the strength of the Shah's support, but also on the attitude of Qavam, who, as\nIran's strongest political personality, will probably continue to wield considerable in-\nfluence in the Majlis.\nThe factionalism and the complete lack of corporate responsibility exhibited by the\nMajlis have not only undermined the stability of recent governments but have also\nstood in the way of Iran's obtaining much-needed internal reforms. During its eleven\nmonths of deliberations up to August 1948, the current Majlis had passed only a handful\nof\nbills. It seemed united only in its anti-Soviet attitude (only eight members displayed\npronounced leftist sentiments), in an irresponsible chauvinism which evokes periodic\ndemands for the re-establishment of Iranian sovereignty over the Bahrein Islands, and\nin a resurgent nationalism expressed through attempts to revise the terms of the Anglo-\nIranian Oil Company concession, limit the authority of the US military missions in\nIran, and eliminate foreign companies in Iran.\n110\nThe Shah, citing the irresponsibility of the Majlis, has put forward proposals aimed\nat curtailing its power. He urges a constitutional amendment authorizing him to\ndissolve the Majlis for a period not to exceed six months and to dismiss the prime\nminister and cabinet even when the Majlis is in session. He is also seeking legislation\nto activate the 60-man Senate (half elective and half appointed by the Shah) which is\nprovided for in the constitution but which has convened but once. The Shah is not\n3\nSECRET"
}