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    "label": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 24-49, The USSR Petroleum Industry",
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    "id": "225249727",
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    "contentType": "document",
    "title": "Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Reports and Estimates Report, Number 24-49, The USSR Petroleum Industry",
    "citationUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/225249727",
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        "President's Secretary's Files (Truman Administration)",
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    "productionDates": [
        {
            "day": 5,
            "logicalDate": "1950-01-05",
            "month": 1,
            "year": 1950
        }
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{
    "seq": 13,
    "pageIndex": 0,
    "type": "photo",
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    "ocrText": "TOPOSECRET\nSECTION II.\nSTUDY\n1. Soviet Crude Oil Production.\na total of 16 million tons for the five years.\nSince the 1950 goal is 35.4 million tons' this\nEstimates for the base year 1945 showed\nsome divergence and after careful considera-\nimplies that the 1945 output is 19.4 million\ntion it was concluded that the most reliable\nmetric tons. If the official percentage in-\nmethod for estimating the current production\ncreases are applied to this base figure for 1945,\nof crude oil in the USSR was the use of certain\nthe oil production for each succeeding year is\nreleases in the Soviet press. The primary\nas follows:\nfactors used were: (1) the petroleum goal\nunder the current Five-Year Plan; and (2)\nMillions of\nannouncements of progress in the attainment\nYear\nMetric Tons\nof annual production quotas. The following\n1945\nwill\n19.4\nis a description of the method that was used\n1946\nin estimating crude oil production from 1945\n? Allo\n21.7\n1947\n25.8\nthrough 1949.\n1948\n29.2\nIn the postwar period, beginning with the\n1949\nsi\n32.8\nyear 1946, the progress of crude oil produc-\ntion has been reported in terms of percentage\nThese estimates are further confirmed, sta-\nincreases over the previous year. Thus far,\ntistically and independently, by reference to a\nthe official yearly rate of increase which has\nrecent Soviet publication. Published by the\nprevailed since 1945 has been as follows:\nSoviet Embassy in Washington, D. C., this peri-\na. Oil production in 1946 increased 12 per-\nodical gave the development and advance-\ncent over 1945. 1\nment of the petroleum industry in the USSR\nb. Oil production in 1947 increased 19 per-\nwhich was characterized in the following\ncent over 1946.²\nmanner:\nc. Oil production in 1948 increased 13 per-\ncent over 1947.\nOIL. INCREASES OVER 1945, WHICH\nEQUALS 100 PERCENT\nd. BAIBAKOV, Minister of the Soviet oil in-\nPercentage Increases\ndustry, stated that the goal of the oil industry\nYear\nOver 1945-100 percent\nfor 1949 was to increase oil output 12.3 per-\n1946\n112\ncent over 1948 production.\n1947\n133\nIn order to establish an absolute figure to\n1948\n151\nwhich the above percentage increases could\n1949 over 1948\n112\nbe applied, use was made of information con-\ntained in Bakinskiy Rabotchiy, 29 May 1946.\nIf the year 1945 is assigned 19.4 million\nThis publication stated that during the fourth\nmetric tons derived by the first method, then\nFive-Year Plan, the average annual increase\ncrude oil production by the above percentage\nin oil production will be 3.2 million tons, or\nincreases is as follows:\n1 IZVESTIYA, 21 January 1947.\n1Russian text of the fourth Five-Year Plan,\n2 IZVESTIYA, 18 January 1948.\nPRAVDA, 21 March 1949.\n3 IZVESTIYA, 20 January 1949.\n2 USSR Information Bulletin, Volume IX, No. 15,\n4\nPRAVDA, 15 March 1949.\n12 August 1949, p. 466.\nTOP SECRET\n7"
}