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34 TOP SECRET during the 1937-1940 period, industry con- shipping, use was made of records of daily sistently accounted for approximately 23 per- consumption of fuel oil and diesel oil by cent of the total annual petroleum consump- tankers and freighters, as recorded for indi- tion when made relative to the other major vidual Soviet ships. Where no record was categories of consumers. available of the consumption record of a spe- The 1950 goals for plant equipment call for cific ship, it was assigned a consumption rate an increase of about 40 percent over the 1940 equal to that of a ship of equal tonnage. levels. Since present productivity has not yet Consumption was computed on the basis of reached the 1940 rates in many industries, it the actual number of ships in each gross ton- is highly unlikely that the Plan will come near nage class, multiplied by the average daily attainment, surely not during 1949. consumption rate of that tonnage class, since Assessment of the postwar activity level in consumption rates vary as the tonnage in- industry is exceedingly difficult, with only creases. meager and intangible evidence available. Days at sea and in port were based on cer- Rather than apply an arbitrary increase in tain actual performance records kept by War the rate of activity in industry to petroleum Shipping Administration for US freighters, consumption, it is estimated that petroleum and by the Armed Services Petroleum Board consumption will be approximately the same for USNT tankers. An arbitrary reduction as in 1940, namely 5.6 million metric tons. of 20 percent in days at sea for freighters, and Consumption of roughly 1.1 million tons of of 10 percent for tankers was applied to So- oil by Power Stations was incorporated to- viet ships to allow for less efficient operation, gether with Manufacturing and Mining un- especially on loading and discharging, and for der Industry. In subsequent years, it ap- poor condition, lack of repair facilities, etc., pears that the relative importance of coal and as compared with US operations. the generation of electricity increased, while Days at sea and in port were assumed to be: that of fuel oil decreased. As such, the total (1) Freighters: 160 days at sea; 205 days consumption of petroleum products by the in port. Mining and Manufacturing Industry together (2) Tankers: 215 days at sea; 150 days in with Electric Power Industry is estimated to port. be 6.7 million metric tons in 1949. Once The assumption of CIA that a ship in port again, it was found that industry accounted consumes 20 percent of the amount of fuel for 23 percent of the total estimated petro- consumed at sea was used. leum consumption by the Soviet economy It has been estimated that Soviet shipping 5. Shipping. requirements in 1949 are as follows: a. Merchant Shipping. POL REQUIREMENTS The current status of the sea-goon mer- Fuel Oil Metric Tons chant fleet under Soviet registry comprises Freighters (deep sea) 734,036 about 522 vessels of 1,000 gross tons and over. Freighters (Caspian) 422,219 Of this total, 201 are oil-burning vessels, Tankers (deep sea) 50,780 namely, 89 diesel-powered ships and 112 Tankers (Caspian) 65,145 steamships powered by fuel oil. Total fuel oil 1,272,180 In the Caspian Sea there are 119 vessels of Diesel Oil more than 1,000 gross tons, 92 of them tank- Freighters (deep sea) 98,770 ers, 27 freighters. Of the tankers, 21 are Freighters (Caspian) 8,271 diesel-powered and 71 use fuel oil. Of the Tankers (deep sea) 40,593 freighters, 10 are diesel-powered and 17 use Tankers (Caspian) 49,271 fuel oil. In calculating the estimated consumption Total diesel oil 196,905 and requirement of petroleum products by Total deep water requirements 924,179 Total Caspian requirements 544,906 1 JIB 3/73. "The Consumption of Oil in the USSR," January 1949, p. 13. Total requirements 1,469,085 D TOP SECRET

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    "ocrText": "34\nTOP SECRET\nduring the 1937-1940 period, industry con-\nshipping, use was made of records of daily\nsistently accounted for approximately 23 per-\nconsumption of fuel oil and diesel oil by\ncent of the total annual petroleum consump-\ntankers and freighters, as recorded for indi-\ntion when made relative to the other major\nvidual Soviet ships. Where no record was\ncategories of consumers.\navailable of the consumption record of a spe-\nThe 1950 goals for plant equipment call for\ncific ship, it was assigned a consumption rate\nan increase of about 40 percent over the 1940\nequal to that of a ship of equal tonnage.\nlevels. Since present productivity has not yet\nConsumption was computed on the basis of\nreached the 1940 rates in many industries, it\nthe actual number of ships in each gross ton-\nis highly unlikely that the Plan will come near\nnage class, multiplied by the average daily\nattainment, surely not during 1949.\nconsumption rate of that tonnage class, since\nAssessment of the postwar activity level in\nconsumption rates vary as the tonnage in-\nindustry is exceedingly difficult, with only\ncreases.\nmeager and intangible evidence available.\nDays at sea and in port were based on cer-\nRather than apply an arbitrary increase in\ntain actual performance records kept by War\nthe rate of activity in industry to petroleum\nShipping Administration for US freighters,\nconsumption, it is estimated that petroleum\nand by the Armed Services Petroleum Board\nconsumption will be approximately the same\nfor USNT tankers. An arbitrary reduction\nas in 1940, namely 5.6 million metric tons.\nof 20 percent in days at sea for freighters, and\nConsumption of roughly 1.1 million tons of\nof 10 percent for tankers was applied to So-\noil by Power Stations was incorporated to-\nviet ships to allow for less efficient operation,\ngether with Manufacturing and Mining un-\nespecially on loading and discharging, and for\nder Industry. In subsequent years, it ap-\npoor condition, lack of repair facilities, etc.,\npears that the relative importance of coal and\nas compared with US operations.\nthe generation of electricity increased, while\nDays at sea and in port were assumed to be:\nthat of fuel oil decreased. As such, the total\n(1) Freighters: 160 days at sea; 205 days\nconsumption of petroleum products by the\nin port.\nMining and Manufacturing Industry together\n(2) Tankers: 215 days at sea; 150 days in\nwith Electric Power Industry is estimated to\nport.\nbe 6.7 million metric tons in 1949. Once\nThe assumption of CIA that a ship in port\nagain, it was found that industry accounted\nconsumes 20 percent of the amount of fuel\nfor 23 percent of the total estimated petro-\nconsumed at sea was used.\nleum consumption by the Soviet economy\nIt has been estimated that Soviet shipping\n5. Shipping.\nrequirements in 1949 are as follows:\na. Merchant Shipping.\nPOL REQUIREMENTS\nThe current status of the sea-goon mer-\nFuel Oil\nMetric Tons\nchant fleet under Soviet registry comprises\nFreighters (deep sea)\n734,036\nabout 522 vessels of 1,000 gross tons and over.\nFreighters (Caspian)\n422,219\nOf this total, 201 are oil-burning vessels,\nTankers (deep sea)\n50,780\nnamely, 89 diesel-powered ships and 112\nTankers (Caspian)\n65,145\nsteamships powered by fuel oil.\nTotal fuel oil\n1,272,180\nIn the Caspian Sea there are 119 vessels of\nDiesel Oil\nmore than 1,000 gross tons, 92 of them tank-\nFreighters (deep sea)\n98,770\ners, 27 freighters. Of the tankers, 21 are\nFreighters (Caspian)\n8,271\ndiesel-powered and 71 use fuel oil. Of the\nTankers (deep sea)\n40,593\nfreighters, 10 are diesel-powered and 17 use\nTankers (Caspian)\n49,271\nfuel oil.\nIn calculating the estimated consumption\nTotal diesel oil\n196,905\nand requirement of petroleum products by\nTotal deep water requirements\n924,179\nTotal Caspian requirements\n544,906\n1 JIB 3/73. \"The Consumption of Oil in the\nUSSR,\" January 1949, p. 13.\nTotal requirements\n1,469,085\nD\nTOP SECRET"
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