Memorandum from Rear Admiral R. H. Hillenkoetter to President Harry S. Truman

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY WASHINGTON 25, D.C. THUMAN KECORDS SERVICE' Es 16 April 1948 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT The sudden death of President Roxas will probably result in increasing political instability and nationalism in the Philippines. It may consequently have an adverse effect on US rehabilitation pro- grams and US interests in the country. The new President is less friendly to the US than Roxas, has fewer capabilities for decisive administration, and is less popular within the majority Liberal Party. Lawlessness by dissident and left-wing groups may increase following a few months of mourning. Moreover, political alignments will probably be drastically shuffled and the prospects that Jose P. Laurel (Japanese occupation president) will be elected President in 1949 may thereby be increased. Under Laurel's leadership, present nationalistic trends would be greatly increased. Roxas' death, which occurred suddenly on 14 April, leaves the Philippine Government in the hands of Elpidio Quirino who has had a. long and reputable career as a professional politician. Roxas selected Quirino because he was the only follower with national stature dating from prewar days who was not tainted by extensive collaboration with the Japanese. Quirino's wife, two daughters, and one son were killed by the Japanese shortly before the recapture of Manila in 1945. Quirino is amenable to flattery, sensitive to criticism, and is usually guided by domestic political considerations in making his decisions. While he is personally inclined to be "lukewarm11 toward the US, he recognizes Philippine dependence upon the US and is not likely delib- erately to take action calculated to harm present friendly relations. Roxas and Quirino sparred cautiously and constantly, especially with regard to relations with the US. Roxas favored permanent and firm ties with the US. Quirino's attitude was not in terms of the fundamental relationships, but in terms of political expediency and advantage. Actually, however, all decisions were made by Roxas. Available evidence indicates that as vice president Quirino did not take a single major step without consulting Roxas, a fact not known to the public. Personal friction between Carlos P. Romulo, Philippine Ambassador to the UN, and Quirino has been particularly noticeable because of a basic difference in their approach to international issues. Quirino's personal relations with Philippine Ambassador to the US Joaquin Elizalde have been no better, and it is likely that Quirino will eventually remove him. DECLASSIFIED Authority NLT- 77-55 By HC NLT Date 10-20-77