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245256696
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Memorandum from Rear Admiral R. H. Hillenkoetter to President Harry S. Truman
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245256696
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document
title
Memorandum from Rear Admiral R. H. Hillenkoetter to President Harry S. Truman
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President's Secretary's Files (Truman Administration)
Intelligence Files
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245256696
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6
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1948-07-06
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7
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1948
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FOP SECREE
NLTCPS. Intell)20
22729
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
ARCHIVES "NATIONAL
WASHINGTON 25, D. C.
be SEPVICE CORDS
6 July 1948
BY
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
Subject: Estimate of the Status of the Russian Atomic Energy Project
In the interval since the 15 December 1947 report on the Status
of the Soviet Atomic Energy Program was issued, no information has
been received that necessitates changes in the argument of that report.
It has remained necessary to rely on knowledge of the United States,
British, and Canadian experience in order to project present information
into the future. Information received since December adds somewhat to
our knowledge of the scope and details of the USSR's project, but it
continues to be impossible to determine its exact status or to determine
the date scheduled by the Soviets for the completion of their first
atomic bomb. It has been learned, however, that in the summer of 1947
the highest Soviet authority was seriously disturbed by the lack of
progress.
On the basis of the evidence now in our possession, it is
estimated that the earliest date by which it is remotely possible that
the USSR may have completed its first atomic bomb is mid-1950, but the
most probable date is believed to be mid-1953. Further discussions
with geological consultants, further literature studies, and such
information as has been received from the field lead to the conclusion
that previous estimates of the total reserves of uranium available to
the USSR were low. As a result, the estimated production of bombs has
been increased. It is now believed that the maximum number of bombs
in the Soviet stockpile in 1955 will be not more than 20 if the first
bomb is completed in 1953, or not more than 50 if it is completed in
1950.
The above report was delivered to the Joint Congressional Atomic
Energy Committee of which Senator Hickenlooper is the Chairman and
in addition has also been disseminated to the Armed Services and the
Department of State. This report, although prepared by the Central
Intelligence Agency, was examined and concurred in by the intelli-
gence agencies of the State, Army, Navy and Air Force Departments as
well as by the Atomic Energy Commission.
R. H. HILLENKOETTER
Rear Admiral, USN
Director of Central Intelligence
DECLASSIFIED
PROJECT NCT 96-15
By, NLT.NC NARS, Date 3-7-79
TOP SEGRET