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ER0229
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON 25, D. C.
WHIT
8 July 1948
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
Since 15 May 1948 when the UK abandoned its mandate over
Palestine, the Arabs and Jews have experienced four weeks of bitter
hostilities and four weeks of uneasy truce. Neither war nor peace,
however, has in any way weakened the determination of the Jews to
establish a sovereign state of Israel or the determination of the
Arabs to prevent the establishment of such a state. The period of
hostilities led to a military stalemate; the truce has favored the
Jews.
Count Bernadotte's proposal that the Palestine truce be
extended beyond 9 July has been accepted by Israel. The Arab states,
on the other hand, have rejected it in view of Bernadotte's refusal
to adopt the Arab proposals (a unified Palestine with restricted
Jewish immigration) as the only basis for further negotiations.
*
In the resumption of full-scale hostilities, the Jewish
forces will probably attempt to consolidate their positions in the
coastal area and Galilee and to gain control of Jerusalem. The Arabs
will probably try to break the military stalemate which had developed
prior to the truce. They will attempt to reimpose their blockade of
Jerusalem by cutting the Tel Aviv supply route and will try to isolate
Tel Aviv from the hinterland by making concerted advances with the
Egyptian, Transjordan, and Iragi Armies. The Syrian Army will probably
launch a limited offensive in northeastern Galilee.
The success of the Arab campaign is doubtful in view of acute
ammunition shortages. Unless the Arabs can force political concessions
from Israel within the next two months, they will probably be compelled
by logistic difficulties to withdraw most of their army units from
Palestine. However, they can be expected to support guerrilla acti-
vities indefinitely. Arab guerrilla incursions, political non-recog-
nition, and economic sanctions will completely isolate Israel from
*Despite the resumption of hostilities, Arabs and Jews are expected
to cooperate with the Mediator in the evacuation of UN personnel.
No Change in Class.
Declassified
'NATIONAL
Class. Changed to: TS S C
ARCHIVES AND
Next Reviews Date:
RICOROS
SERVICE'
Auth.: HR 70-a.
SEVENBER
Date: 26 APR 1982
SECRE
By: 103430
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"ocrText": "ER0229\nCENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY\nWASHINGTON 25, D. C.\nWHIT\n8 July 1948\nMEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT\nSince 15 May 1948 when the UK abandoned its mandate over\nPalestine, the Arabs and Jews have experienced four weeks of bitter\nhostilities and four weeks of uneasy truce. Neither war nor peace,\nhowever, has in any way weakened the determination of the Jews to\nestablish a sovereign state of Israel or the determination of the\nArabs to prevent the establishment of such a state. The period of\nhostilities led to a military stalemate; the truce has favored the\nJews.\nCount Bernadotte's proposal that the Palestine truce be\nextended beyond 9 July has been accepted by Israel. The Arab states,\non the other hand, have rejected it in view of Bernadotte's refusal\nto adopt the Arab proposals (a unified Palestine with restricted\nJewish immigration) as the only basis for further negotiations.\n*\nIn the resumption of full-scale hostilities, the Jewish\nforces will probably attempt to consolidate their positions in the\ncoastal area and Galilee and to gain control of Jerusalem. The Arabs\nwill probably try to break the military stalemate which had developed\nprior to the truce. They will attempt to reimpose their blockade of\nJerusalem by cutting the Tel Aviv supply route and will try to isolate\nTel Aviv from the hinterland by making concerted advances with the\nEgyptian, Transjordan, and Iragi Armies. The Syrian Army will probably\nlaunch a limited offensive in northeastern Galilee.\nThe success of the Arab campaign is doubtful in view of acute\nammunition shortages. Unless the Arabs can force political concessions\nfrom Israel within the next two months, they will probably be compelled\nby logistic difficulties to withdraw most of their army units from\nPalestine. However, they can be expected to support guerrilla acti-\nvities indefinitely. Arab guerrilla incursions, political non-recog-\nnition, and economic sanctions will completely isolate Israel from\n*Despite the resumption of hostilities, Arabs and Jews are expected\nto cooperate with the Mediator in the evacuation of UN personnel.\nNo Change in Class.\nDeclassified\n'NATIONAL\nClass. Changed to: TS S C\nARCHIVES AND\nNext Reviews Date:\nRICOROS\nSERVICE'\nAuth.: HR 70-a.\nSEVENBER\nDate: 26 APR 1982\nSECRE\nBy: 103430"
}