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245256711
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Memorandum from Rear Admiral R. H. Hillenkoetter to President Harry S. Truman
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245256711
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document
title
Memorandum from Rear Admiral R. H. Hillenkoetter to President Harry S. Truman
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President's Secretary's Files (Truman Administration)
Intelligence Files
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Chiang, Kai-shek, 1887-1975
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245256711
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20
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1948-07-20
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7
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1948
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ER0392
DECLASSIFIED
E.O. 12005, Sec. 3-402
Clinic
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
State Dent. C: June 12. 1979
CIA ZTR. 2-26-82 ML88-19
WASHINGTON 25, D. C.
By NLT- HC Date 3-31-f2
20 July 1948
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
The Chinese National Government is now so unstable that its
collapse or overthrow could occur at any time. There may, however, be
no sudden and spectacular developments. The government of Chiang Kai-
shek may survive for some time, with dwindling power, and perhaps become
merely one of several regimes in China. Already regional leaders in
Nationalist-held areas of Manchuria and North China and in the western
provinces exercise independently local military and political power.
The most grave danger for Chiang Kai-shek is that his ability
to command the support of the principal Nationalist military and poli-
tical leaders is becoming increasingly uncertain. In addition, Chinese
Communist forces at present appear to be undertaking a new general of-
fensive which may destroy the effective fighting power of the Nationalist
Army. A threat from a different quarter is developing in the plan of
Marshal Li Chi-shen, dissident leader in Hong Kong, to set up a rival
provisional government, probably in southwest China. This step, which
may materialize soon, could hardly accomplish the immediate overthrow
of Chiang but might speed up disintegration in Nationalist China. Al-
though Marshal Li may find support initially in one or more provinces,
he does not appear to have the backing of any now prominent Nationalist
leaders with significant political and military followings. Leaders such
as Fu Tso-yi in North China, and Li Tsung-jen, Nationalist vice president,
will probably play a "wait and see" game until the full impact of Marshal
Li's anticipated appeal for peace and coalition government with the Com-
munists becomes clear. Because of widespread defeatism and war weariness
in Nationalist China, this issue may unite opposition to Chiang. The
Communists probably favor negotiations inasmuch as a coalition government
would facilitate the extension of their control over all China. Soviet
officials in Nanking have recently renewed their overtures with Nationalist
officials regarding a compromise peace, and if circumstances become prow
pitious, the USSR may offer to mediate.
Disintegration of the National Government is already so advanced
that it is very questionable whether US aid of the proportions currently
planned can check this course. Thus the US may find itself in the near
future actively supporting a government at Nanking which exercises merely
nominal power, a situation which would gravely impair US prestige and
interests in the Far East.
R. H. HILLENKOETTER
Rear Admiral, USN
Director of Central Intelligence
GLOWET