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SECRET
ER 0417
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON 25, D. C.
21 July 1948
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
It is estimated that the USSR will have available from its current
crop about 7,600,000 metric tons of grain for stockpiling and export.
This is about 1,800,000 metric tons below the comparable figure for
1947.
The total Soviet grain acreage this year exceeds that of last
year by about 10 per cent, and the estimated 1948 grain production will
be about the same as that of 1947 (estimated at 76,000,000 metric tons).
The decrease in the quantity available for stockpiling and export
is attributable to increased domestic requirements for (a) human consump-
tion, (b) seed grain for planting the 1949 crop, (c) feed for livestock,
and (d) grain for industrial use.
In the satellite countries the grain situation is considerably more
favorable than last year, and probably will permit the diversion of some
Soviet grain exports from Eastern to Western Europe. The USSR can thus
maintain its exports to Western Europe without adversely affecting its
stockpiling at home ( shipments from the 1947 crop to non-satellite
countries as of April totaled 1.9 million metric tons). . The Soviet grain
situation probably will be further improved if Hungary, as has been
reported, pays its remaining reparations to the USSR in agricultural
products.
From the foregoing, it appears that the USSR is fully capable of
feeding the entire Berlin population from Soviet-controlled stocks if
it so desires.
i
R. H. HILLENKOETTER
DECLASSIFIED
Rear Agmiral, USN
Director of Central Intelligence
Authority
NLT- 76.15
By HC NLT Date 7-10-4-77
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"ocrText": "SECRET\nER 0417\nCENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY\nWASHINGTON 25, D. C.\n21 July 1948\nMEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT\nIt is estimated that the USSR will have available from its current\ncrop about 7,600,000 metric tons of grain for stockpiling and export.\nThis is about 1,800,000 metric tons below the comparable figure for\n1947.\nThe total Soviet grain acreage this year exceeds that of last\nyear by about 10 per cent, and the estimated 1948 grain production will\nbe about the same as that of 1947 (estimated at 76,000,000 metric tons).\nThe decrease in the quantity available for stockpiling and export\nis attributable to increased domestic requirements for (a) human consump-\ntion, (b) seed grain for planting the 1949 crop, (c) feed for livestock,\nand (d) grain for industrial use.\nIn the satellite countries the grain situation is considerably more\nfavorable than last year, and probably will permit the diversion of some\nSoviet grain exports from Eastern to Western Europe. The USSR can thus\nmaintain its exports to Western Europe without adversely affecting its\nstockpiling at home ( shipments from the 1947 crop to non-satellite\ncountries as of April totaled 1.9 million metric tons). . The Soviet grain\nsituation probably will be further improved if Hungary, as has been\nreported, pays its remaining reparations to the USSR in agricultural\nproducts.\nFrom the foregoing, it appears that the USSR is fully capable of\nfeeding the entire Berlin population from Soviet-controlled stocks if\nit so desires.\ni\nR. H. HILLENKOETTER\nDECLASSIFIED\nRear Agmiral, USN\nDirector of Central Intelligence\nAuthority\nNLT- 76.15\nBy HC NLT Date 7-10-4-77"
}