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SECURITY INFORMATION
IV. Soviet Nuclear Weapons and Air Power
A. The Balance of Nuclear Striking Power
The Soviet stockpile of atomic bombs in July 1952 is estimated
at about 50, with an average strength of about 60 KT. More important
than present Soviet atomic strength is the carefully assessed probability
that they will have 300 atomic bombs (a minimum of 150 and a maximum
of 600) and possibly an unknown quantity of hydrogen bombs by mid-1955.
The foregoing estimate for 1955 is based on the continued growth
of the Soviet atomic program as it has been expanding in the past. It
should be noted, however, that the Soviets have the capability of
further accelerating their atomic program, as our own effort recently
has been accelerated. A decision by the Kremlin to increase its atomic
effort could result in a 1955 Soviet stockpile substantially greater than
the current estimate of 300. This would provide the Soviets with the
atomic weapons required for a saturation attack on the U. S.
Our larger current stockpile assures us of a temporary superiority
in nuclear tactical weapons. How decisive the enemy tacticians esti-
mate this superiority to be, we have no means of knowing. Nor can
we know when the enemy will estimate that he has neutralized our
nuclear superiority. Yet solely on these estimates by the enemy rests
the deterrent power of our stockpile of atomic bombs.
While it is generally agreed that the United States has temporary
superiority in tactical nuclear weapons it is by no means so probable
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"ocrText": "TOP SECRET\nSECURITY INFORMATION\nIV. Soviet Nuclear Weapons and Air Power\nA. The Balance of Nuclear Striking Power\nThe Soviet stockpile of atomic bombs in July 1952 is estimated\nat about 50, with an average strength of about 60 KT. More important\nthan present Soviet atomic strength is the carefully assessed probability\nthat they will have 300 atomic bombs (a minimum of 150 and a maximum\nof 600) and possibly an unknown quantity of hydrogen bombs by mid-1955.\nThe foregoing estimate for 1955 is based on the continued growth\nof the Soviet atomic program as it has been expanding in the past. It\nshould be noted, however, that the Soviets have the capability of\nfurther accelerating their atomic program, as our own effort recently\nhas been accelerated. A decision by the Kremlin to increase its atomic\neffort could result in a 1955 Soviet stockpile substantially greater than\nthe current estimate of 300. This would provide the Soviets with the\natomic weapons required for a saturation attack on the U. S.\nOur larger current stockpile assures us of a temporary superiority\nin nuclear tactical weapons. How decisive the enemy tacticians esti-\nmate this superiority to be, we have no means of knowing. Nor can\nwe know when the enemy will estimate that he has neutralized our\nnuclear superiority. Yet solely on these estimates by the enemy rests\nthe deterrent power of our stockpile of atomic bombs.\nWhile it is generally agreed that the United States has temporary\nsuperiority in tactical nuclear weapons it is by no means so probable\nTOP SECRET\nPage 5 of / 6\nSECURITY INFORMATION"
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