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TOP SECRET COMMENTS Although the total availability of petroleum, including shale oil and synthetics, in the Soviet Bloc is less than 10 percent of that now available to the "US and Others," Soviet military requirements for war also are far less. The magnitude of US military require- ments at the peak of a major effort is larger because of the greater degree of ground force mechanization, the extent of air operations (including air transport), the size of naval forces, and the length of lines of communication. Furthermore, the entire economy of the US is adjusted to a much higher per capita consumption of petroleum products than is the economy of the USSR. While civilian consumption can be reduced by rationing, a large part of US civilian requirements is essential in the development of war potential. Quantitative comparisons of total availability as shown on the accompanying chart, therefore, tend to distort the actual comparative positions of the "US and Others" and the USSR and its Sat- ellites in respect to adequacy of petroleum supplies for a major war effort. For the first year of a war as visualized in ABI-14 and ABCI-15,* with Soviet cam- paigns in Western Europe (including air attacks only on the UK), Scandinavia, Greece, Turkey, the Middle East, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Far East, estimated Soviet military requirements of petroleum would amount to about 30 percent of total production. The re- quirements for the "US and Others" for the first year of such a war, assuming the successful defense of France and the British Isles, would be approximately 14.6 percent of total pro- duction with continued availability of oil from the Middle East or 17.7 percent without the Middle East. By the third year of a war, these requirements would probably be over 20 per- cent of total availability including Middle East oil or about 25 percent without the Middle East. * "Soviet Intentions and Capabilities." COUNTRIES INCLUDED IN CHART 4 US and Others* US Other NATO Powers Other Western Powers Other Countries British Commonwealth France Netherlands Colombia Bahrein*** Canada Ecuador British Borneo** West Germany Egypt Mexico Indonesia Peru Iran Trinidad** Japan Venezuela Kuwait* Qatar** Soviet Bloc USSR European Satellites Far Eastern Satellites Albania Czechoslovakia Poland Communist China East Austria East Germany Rumania Hungary * The areas included with the US as "others" include all those outside the Soviet Bloc whose pro- duction in 1951 exceeded 1 million barrels a year, except Argentina, India, and Pakistan. UK crown colony. Nominally independent sheikhdom with special associations with the UK. TOP SECRET

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Page context
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    "ocrText": "TOP SECRET\nCOMMENTS\nAlthough the total availability of petroleum, including shale oil and synthetics, in the\nSoviet Bloc is less than 10 percent of that now available to the \"US and Others,\" Soviet\nmilitary requirements for war also are far less. The magnitude of US military require-\nments at the peak of a major effort is larger because of the greater degree of ground force\nmechanization, the extent of air operations (including air transport), the size of naval\nforces, and the length of lines of communication. Furthermore, the entire economy of the\nUS is adjusted to a much higher per capita consumption of petroleum products than is the\neconomy of the USSR. While civilian consumption can be reduced by rationing, a large part\nof US civilian requirements is essential in the development of war potential. Quantitative\ncomparisons of total availability as shown on the accompanying chart, therefore, tend to\ndistort the actual comparative positions of the \"US and Others\" and the USSR and its Sat-\nellites in respect to adequacy of petroleum supplies for a major war effort.\nFor the first year of a war as visualized in ABI-14 and ABCI-15,* with Soviet cam-\npaigns in Western Europe (including air attacks only on the UK), Scandinavia, Greece,\nTurkey, the Middle East, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Far East, estimated Soviet military\nrequirements of petroleum would amount to about 30 percent of total production. The re-\nquirements for the \"US and Others\" for the first year of such a war, assuming the successful\ndefense of France and the British Isles, would be approximately 14.6 percent of total pro-\nduction with continued availability of oil from the Middle East or 17.7 percent without the\nMiddle East. By the third year of a war, these requirements would probably be over 20 per-\ncent of total availability including Middle East oil or about 25 percent without the Middle\nEast.\n*\n\"Soviet Intentions and Capabilities.\"\nCOUNTRIES INCLUDED IN CHART 4\nUS and Others*\nUS\nOther NATO Powers\nOther Western Powers\nOther Countries\nBritish Commonwealth\nFrance\nNetherlands\nColombia\nBahrein***\nCanada\nEcuador\nBritish Borneo**\nWest Germany\nEgypt\nMexico\nIndonesia\nPeru\nIran\nTrinidad**\nJapan\nVenezuela\nKuwait*\nQatar**\nSoviet Bloc\nUSSR\nEuropean Satellites\nFar Eastern Satellites\nAlbania\nCzechoslovakia\nPoland\nCommunist China\nEast Austria\nEast Germany\nRumania\nHungary\n*\nThe areas included with the US as \"others\" include all those outside the Soviet Bloc whose pro-\nduction in 1951 exceeded 1 million barrels a year, except Argentina, India, and Pakistan.\nUK crown colony.\nNominally independent sheikhdom with special associations with the UK.\nTOP SECRET"
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