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Although the total availability of petroleum, including shale oil and synthetics, in the
Soviet Bloc is less than 10 percent of that now available to the "US and Others," Soviet
military requirements for war also are far less. The magnitude of US military require-
ments at the peak of a major effort is larger because of the greater degree of ground force
mechanization, the extent of air operations (including air transport), the size of naval
forces, and the length of lines of communication. Furthermore, the entire economy of the
US is adjusted to a much higher per capita consumption of petroleum products than is the
economy of the USSR. While civilian consumption can be reduced by rationing, a large part
of US civilian requirements is essential in the development of war potential. Quantitative
comparisons of total availability as shown on the accompanying chart, therefore, tend to
distort the actual comparative positions of the "US and Others" and the USSR and its Sat-
ellites in respect to adequacy of petroleum supplies for a major war effort.
For the first year of a war as visualized in ABI-14 and ABCI-15,* with Soviet cam-
paigns in Western Europe (including air attacks only on the UK), Scandinavia, Greece,
Turkey, the Middle East, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Far East, estimated Soviet military
requirements of petroleum would amount to about 30 percent of total production. The re-
quirements for the "US and Others" for the first year of such a war, assuming the successful
defense of France and the British Isles, would be approximately 14.6 percent of total pro-
duction with continued availability of oil from the Middle East or 17.7 percent without the
Middle East. By the third year of a war, these requirements would probably be over 20 per-
cent of total availability including Middle East oil or about 25 percent without the Middle
East.
*
"Soviet Intentions and Capabilities."
COUNTRIES INCLUDED IN CHART 4
US and Others*
US
Other NATO Powers
Other Western Powers
Other Countries
British Commonwealth
France
Netherlands
Colombia
Bahrein***
Canada
Ecuador
British Borneo**
West Germany
Egypt
Mexico
Indonesia
Peru
Iran
Trinidad**
Japan
Venezuela
Kuwait*
Qatar**
Soviet Bloc
USSR
European Satellites
Far Eastern Satellites
Albania
Czechoslovakia
Poland
Communist China
East Austria
East Germany
Rumania
Hungary
*
The areas included with the US as "others" include all those outside the Soviet Bloc whose pro-
duction in 1951 exceeded 1 million barrels a year, except Argentina, India, and Pakistan.
UK crown colony.
Nominally independent sheikhdom with special associations with the UK.
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"ocrText": "TOP SECRET\nCOMMENTS\nAlthough the total availability of petroleum, including shale oil and synthetics, in the\nSoviet Bloc is less than 10 percent of that now available to the \"US and Others,\" Soviet\nmilitary requirements for war also are far less. The magnitude of US military require-\nments at the peak of a major effort is larger because of the greater degree of ground force\nmechanization, the extent of air operations (including air transport), the size of naval\nforces, and the length of lines of communication. Furthermore, the entire economy of the\nUS is adjusted to a much higher per capita consumption of petroleum products than is the\neconomy of the USSR. While civilian consumption can be reduced by rationing, a large part\nof US civilian requirements is essential in the development of war potential. Quantitative\ncomparisons of total availability as shown on the accompanying chart, therefore, tend to\ndistort the actual comparative positions of the \"US and Others\" and the USSR and its Sat-\nellites in respect to adequacy of petroleum supplies for a major war effort.\nFor the first year of a war as visualized in ABI-14 and ABCI-15,* with Soviet cam-\npaigns in Western Europe (including air attacks only on the UK), Scandinavia, Greece,\nTurkey, the Middle East, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Far East, estimated Soviet military\nrequirements of petroleum would amount to about 30 percent of total production. The re-\nquirements for the \"US and Others\" for the first year of such a war, assuming the successful\ndefense of France and the British Isles, would be approximately 14.6 percent of total pro-\nduction with continued availability of oil from the Middle East or 17.7 percent without the\nMiddle East. By the third year of a war, these requirements would probably be over 20 per-\ncent of total availability including Middle East oil or about 25 percent without the Middle\nEast.\n*\n\"Soviet Intentions and Capabilities.\"\nCOUNTRIES INCLUDED IN CHART 4\nUS and Others*\nUS\nOther NATO Powers\nOther Western Powers\nOther Countries\nBritish Commonwealth\nFrance\nNetherlands\nColombia\nBahrein***\nCanada\nEcuador\nBritish Borneo**\nWest Germany\nEgypt\nMexico\nIndonesia\nPeru\nIran\nTrinidad**\nJapan\nVenezuela\nKuwait*\nQatar**\nSoviet Bloc\nUSSR\nEuropean Satellites\nFar Eastern Satellites\nAlbania\nCzechoslovakia\nPoland\nCommunist China\nEast Austria\nEast Germany\nRumania\nHungary\n*\nThe areas included with the US as \"others\" include all those outside the Soviet Bloc whose pro-\nduction in 1951 exceeded 1 million barrels a year, except Argentina, India, and Pakistan.\nUK crown colony.\nNominally independent sheikhdom with special associations with the UK.\nTOP SECRET"
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