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App-5
(3) The size of the overall program and the indications of the
size of individual facilities at atomic energy sites.
(4)
b.
to maximize Soviet capabilities.
second and third were used as the bases of previous estimates which tended The
there was little or no Soviet production prior to this period permits
The assumption that
calculation of Soviet plutonium production during this period. The most a
probable figure, thus calculated, corresponds to
power during this period. Any prior production leads to an upward
of pile
adjustment of this figure as is done below.
c. It is known, however, that there must have been some prior
There is evidence on the time table of construction activities at the
production because the Soviets exploded a plutonium bomb in August 1949.
pile sites which indicates that reactors probably went into operation in
that other reactors will probably go into operation
There are also indications
will substantially increase the plutonium production capability of the and
Soviet Union. For the purpose of estimating a Soviet plutonium stock-
pile, average total operating power levels are taken as follows:
basis
On this
stockpile is estimated to be as follows:
the cumulative plutonium
End 1951 -
Mid 1952
Mid 1953
Mid 1954
Mid 1955 --
- 12 -
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