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App-6 d. The absence of detailed direct or circumstantial evidence capable of being interpreted to permit unique conclusions, introduces a large un- certainty factor into the numerical results. While the probable plutonium production is. given in the preceding table, the actual production to date estimated. may be as low as about one half to as high as about two times that 6. Isotope Separation a. There is a considerable body of evidence indicating an interest in isotope separation in the U.S.S.R., starting as early as 1940, at which time some Soviet scientists thought well of the thermal diffusion method. would be available to the U.S.S.R. sometime b. In previous reports it was estimated that weapon-grade uranium-235 This estimate was confirmed by the Soviet test of a composite weapon utilizing uranium-235 in October 1951.. Therefore, P. significant capability for the production of weapon-grade uranivm-235 on the part of the Soviets must exist. c. As noted above, it has not been possible, as yet, to determine the specific process which the Soviets are employing to produce uranium-235. It is known, however, that large quantities of being produced for the Soviet Atomic Energy Program. Although the are concensus of United States technical advice indicates that this specific such use by the Soviets cannot be excluded at this time. In the absence or other evidence, if it 1s assumed that for this purpose, estimated production is used have been employed in the computation capability: OI the following cumulative estimate of Soviet uranium-235 production End 1951 Mid 1952 Mid 1953 Mid 1954 Mid 1955 d. If in fact or for other purposes in the Soviet Atomic Energy Program, it is believed from examination of other practical methods of isotope separation, that Soviet capability for the production - 13 -

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    "ocrText": "App-6\nd. The absence of detailed direct or circumstantial evidence capable\nof being interpreted to permit unique conclusions, introduces a large un-\ncertainty factor into the numerical results. While the probable plutonium\nproduction is. given in the preceding table, the actual production to date\nestimated. may be as low as about one half to as high as about two times that\n6.\nIsotope Separation\na. There is a considerable body of evidence indicating an interest\nin isotope separation in the U.S.S.R., starting as early as 1940, at which\ntime some Soviet scientists thought well of the thermal diffusion method.\nwould be available to the U.S.S.R. sometime\nb. In previous reports it was estimated that weapon-grade uranium-235\nThis estimate\nwas confirmed by the Soviet test of a composite weapon utilizing uranium-235\nin October 1951.. Therefore, P. significant capability for the production\nof weapon-grade uranivm-235 on the part of the Soviets must exist.\nc. As noted above, it has not been possible, as yet, to determine\nthe specific process which the Soviets are employing to produce uranium-235.\nIt is known, however, that large quantities of\nbeing produced for the Soviet Atomic Energy Program. Although the\nare\nconcensus of United States technical advice indicates that this specific\nsuch use by the Soviets cannot be excluded at this time.\nIn the absence or other evidence, if it 1s assumed that\nfor this purpose, estimated production\nis used\nhave been employed in the computation\ncapability: OI the following cumulative estimate of Soviet uranium-235 production\nEnd 1951\nMid 1952\nMid 1953\nMid 1954\nMid 1955\nd. If in fact\nor for other purposes in the Soviet\nAtomic Energy Program, it is believed from examination of other practical\nmethods of isotope separation, that Soviet capability for the production\n- 13 -"
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