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OCR
ECRET
9
and are bitterly antagonistic toward Israel.
general the smaller states would give little
The Palestine War has all but destroyed the
support to a regional association if India and
Arab League. Israel, while attempting to im-
Japan participated primarily in an effort to
prove its relations with individual Arab states,
expand their respective spheres of influence.
will do all it can to obstruct Arab unity in the
It will probably take a generation to reach
future. For many years, such stability as
a more advanced stage of regionalization,
there may be in the Near East will come from
characterized by political cooperation and
a strained accommodation among suspicious
mutual attempts to encourage trade patterns
neighbors rather than from real regional co-
advantageous for the region as a whole. In
operation.
the meantime such tendencies as there are to-
ward Asiatic regionalism will help very little
4. Far East.
in containing Soviet influence, stabilizing a
line roughly separating the Western and So-
In comparison with Europe, little feeling
viet spheres, and developing military, political,
of regional community of interest has de-
and economic strength on the Western side
veloped among the Asiatic states. The
of the line. Major trends affecting these long-
peoples are locally compartmentalized, and the
range interests of the US have not yet taken
main common concern of Asiatic political lead-
definite shape. In the next few months some
ers is nationalism. Drives toward national in-
positive indications of the direction of events
dependence so far have been directed primarily
will begin to appear as (a) the establishment
against European imperialism. Consequently,
of the United States of Indonesia progresses,
Asiatic nationalism is vulnerable to exploita-
(b) France loses or holds Indochina, (c) the
tion along international Communist lines as
Communist government in China encounters
laid down by the USSR. Economic forces
the problems of political and economic recon-
favoring regional unification in Asia are slight,
struction, and (d) the timing and character
although industrial expansion in Japan and
of a Japanese peace treaty are worked out.
India would make the currently primitive eco-
nomic relationships between food-surplus and
5. Latin America.
food-deficit areas more complementary.
In the Western Hemisphere, where success-
Efforts of the stronger states to dominate all
ful regional cooperation has a long history,
or part of the non-Soviet region of the Far East
developments since the signing of the Rio
and collective counteraction by regional group-
treaty in 1947 have weakened the power po-
ings of the weaker states may develop during
tential of Hemisphere solidarity. These de-
the next decade. In this sense of regional-
velopments have not, however, affected the
ization, however, Chinese efforts to establish
generally anti-Soviet orientation of Latin
Asiatic hegemony through an expansion of
America.
Communist influence probably will be as com-
The Latin American countries have tended
prehensive and thorough as efforts by India or
to disagree over the extent to which the inter-
Japan. India would enter into a regional as-
American system should seek to enforce on
sociation only if it were under Indian leader-
members the obligation to follow democratic
ship and then only if it avoided the appearance
procedures. Some of the countries feel that
of being an instrument of US and Western
US recognition of governments created by mili-
European policy. Japan would welcome re-
tary force is contrary to declared US and
gionalization under US sponsorship as a se-
Hemisphere policy. In addition, the US
curity measure and as a way of regaining in-
capacity to exercise leadership in the region
ternational stature. On the other hand, op-
has suffered. There is widespread disappoint-
position to any moves facilitating Indian domi-
ment over the concentration of US attention
nation of Asia is strong in Pakistan, where in
on economic assistance outside the Hemi-
recent months popular and governmental bit-
sphere, and there is a great deal of resistance
terness toward India has reached a dangerous
to US advocacy of multilateral rather than bi-
level of intensity over the Kashmir dispute. In
lateral trade agreements. Finally, the recent
DECLASSIFIED
SECRET
E. O. 11652, Sec. 3(E) 3-31-77 and 5(D) or (E)
C.I.A.
OSD
letter,
NLT
NARS
By
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"ocrText": "ECRET\n9\nand are bitterly antagonistic toward Israel.\ngeneral the smaller states would give little\nThe Palestine War has all but destroyed the\nsupport to a regional association if India and\nArab League. Israel, while attempting to im-\nJapan participated primarily in an effort to\nprove its relations with individual Arab states,\nexpand their respective spheres of influence.\nwill do all it can to obstruct Arab unity in the\nIt will probably take a generation to reach\nfuture. For many years, such stability as\na more advanced stage of regionalization,\nthere may be in the Near East will come from\ncharacterized by political cooperation and\na strained accommodation among suspicious\nmutual attempts to encourage trade patterns\nneighbors rather than from real regional co-\nadvantageous for the region as a whole. In\noperation.\nthe meantime such tendencies as there are to-\nward Asiatic regionalism will help very little\n4. Far East.\nin containing Soviet influence, stabilizing a\nline roughly separating the Western and So-\nIn comparison with Europe, little feeling\nviet spheres, and developing military, political,\nof regional community of interest has de-\nand economic strength on the Western side\nveloped among the Asiatic states. The\nof the line. Major trends affecting these long-\npeoples are locally compartmentalized, and the\nrange interests of the US have not yet taken\nmain common concern of Asiatic political lead-\ndefinite shape. In the next few months some\ners is nationalism. Drives toward national in-\npositive indications of the direction of events\ndependence so far have been directed primarily\nwill begin to appear as (a) the establishment\nagainst European imperialism. Consequently,\nof the United States of Indonesia progresses,\nAsiatic nationalism is vulnerable to exploita-\n(b) France loses or holds Indochina, (c) the\ntion along international Communist lines as\nCommunist government in China encounters\nlaid down by the USSR. Economic forces\nthe problems of political and economic recon-\nfavoring regional unification in Asia are slight,\nstruction, and (d) the timing and character\nalthough industrial expansion in Japan and\nof a Japanese peace treaty are worked out.\nIndia would make the currently primitive eco-\nnomic relationships between food-surplus and\n5. Latin America.\nfood-deficit areas more complementary.\nIn the Western Hemisphere, where success-\nEfforts of the stronger states to dominate all\nful regional cooperation has a long history,\nor part of the non-Soviet region of the Far East\ndevelopments since the signing of the Rio\nand collective counteraction by regional group-\ntreaty in 1947 have weakened the power po-\nings of the weaker states may develop during\ntential of Hemisphere solidarity. These de-\nthe next decade. In this sense of regional-\nvelopments have not, however, affected the\nization, however, Chinese efforts to establish\ngenerally anti-Soviet orientation of Latin\nAsiatic hegemony through an expansion of\nAmerica.\nCommunist influence probably will be as com-\nThe Latin American countries have tended\nprehensive and thorough as efforts by India or\nto disagree over the extent to which the inter-\nJapan. India would enter into a regional as-\nAmerican system should seek to enforce on\nsociation only if it were under Indian leader-\nmembers the obligation to follow democratic\nship and then only if it avoided the appearance\nprocedures. Some of the countries feel that\nof being an instrument of US and Western\nUS recognition of governments created by mili-\nEuropean policy. Japan would welcome re-\ntary force is contrary to declared US and\ngionalization under US sponsorship as a se-\nHemisphere policy. In addition, the US\ncurity measure and as a way of regaining in-\ncapacity to exercise leadership in the region\nternational stature. On the other hand, op-\nhas suffered. There is widespread disappoint-\nposition to any moves facilitating Indian domi-\nment over the concentration of US attention\nnation of Asia is strong in Pakistan, where in\non economic assistance outside the Hemi-\nrecent months popular and governmental bit-\nsphere, and there is a great deal of resistance\nterness toward India has reached a dangerous\nto US advocacy of multilateral rather than bi-\nlevel of intensity over the Kashmir dispute. In\nlateral trade agreements. Finally, the recent\nDECLASSIFIED\nSECRET\nE. O. 11652, Sec. 3(E) 3-31-77 and 5(D) or (E)\nC.I.A.\nOSD\nletter,\nNLT\nNARS\nBy"
}