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December 1948
SECRET
The New Faction, which is now in power at Lhasa, is strongly anti-Chinese and
stands for the strengthening of Tibetan autonomy. A tacit understanding has existed
between this group and the British for Tibetan-British "special relations," i.e., the
direct negotiation of trade agreements between Tibet and British India, by-passing the
Chinese National Government.
The Old Faction stands for a closer relationship with China, and a revival in some
form of the old politico-religious partnership which existed before the formation of the
Chinese Republic. In the spring of 1947 the leader of the Old Faction was put to death
by members of the New Faction for allegedly plotting against the life of the regent.
Pro-Chinese sentiment thus suffered a setback, and the movement for autonomy and
even independence has been intensified in Tibet.
4. FUTURE TRENDS.
British influence in Tibet remains predominant, and the British withdrawal from
India has not affected British strategic interest in Tibetan autonomy, based on concern
for the security of India and Pakistan vis-à-vis the USSR. India and Pakistan, in
turn, have no reasons for not maintaining "special relations" with Tibet (i.e., the direct
negotiation of trade agreements with Tibet)
Tibet, however, is no longer disposed to rely entirely on British support, after the
British withdrawal from India and the subsequent Indian-Pakistan turmoil. Lhasa
would very much like to secure even a quasi-political recognition from the US, and
perhaps UN membership, in order to offset Chinese claims and the Soviet threat. An
illustration of this trend was the despatch in 1948 of a Tibetan "Trade Mission" to the
US. The Mission's request for a two-million-dollar loan to buy gold for currency
stabilization was turned down by the US at the insistence of the Chinese.
The Tibetan hierarchy distrusts the USSR as a country opposed to religion; this
feeling has been fostered by the manner in which the Soviets suppressed Lamaism in
Outer Mongolia. During the past year, however, a number of Soviet agents, posing as
lamas from the Mongolian Peoples Republic, have reportedly visited Tibetan monas-
teries. If the Soviets could succeed in gaining influence over the Tibetan hierarchy, it
might be exploited to facilitate the expansion of Soviet influence among those peoples
of western China and northern India who look to the Dalai Lama as their spiritual head.
Aside from using Tibet as a point from which to penetrate adjacent regions, the USSR
appears to have no objectives in Tibet itself, and Soviet action in that country will
depend upon the Kremlin's policy toward China, and, to a lesser extent, India.
SECRET
J-4
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"ocrText": "December 1948\nSECRET\nThe New Faction, which is now in power at Lhasa, is strongly anti-Chinese and\nstands for the strengthening of Tibetan autonomy. A tacit understanding has existed\nbetween this group and the British for Tibetan-British \"special relations,\" i.e., the\ndirect negotiation of trade agreements between Tibet and British India, by-passing the\nChinese National Government.\nThe Old Faction stands for a closer relationship with China, and a revival in some\nform of the old politico-religious partnership which existed before the formation of the\nChinese Republic. In the spring of 1947 the leader of the Old Faction was put to death\nby members of the New Faction for allegedly plotting against the life of the regent.\nPro-Chinese sentiment thus suffered a setback, and the movement for autonomy and\neven independence has been intensified in Tibet.\n4. FUTURE TRENDS.\nBritish influence in Tibet remains predominant, and the British withdrawal from\nIndia has not affected British strategic interest in Tibetan autonomy, based on concern\nfor the security of India and Pakistan vis-à-vis the USSR. India and Pakistan, in\nturn, have no reasons for not maintaining \"special relations\" with Tibet (i.e., the direct\nnegotiation of trade agreements with Tibet)\nTibet, however, is no longer disposed to rely entirely on British support, after the\nBritish withdrawal from India and the subsequent Indian-Pakistan turmoil. Lhasa\nwould very much like to secure even a quasi-political recognition from the US, and\nperhaps UN membership, in order to offset Chinese claims and the Soviet threat. An\nillustration of this trend was the despatch in 1948 of a Tibetan \"Trade Mission\" to the\nUS. The Mission's request for a two-million-dollar loan to buy gold for currency\nstabilization was turned down by the US at the insistence of the Chinese.\nThe Tibetan hierarchy distrusts the USSR as a country opposed to religion; this\nfeeling has been fostered by the manner in which the Soviets suppressed Lamaism in\nOuter Mongolia. During the past year, however, a number of Soviet agents, posing as\nlamas from the Mongolian Peoples Republic, have reportedly visited Tibetan monas-\nteries. If the Soviets could succeed in gaining influence over the Tibetan hierarchy, it\nmight be exploited to facilitate the expansion of Soviet influence among those peoples\nof western China and northern India who look to the Dalai Lama as their spiritual head.\nAside from using Tibet as a point from which to penetrate adjacent regions, the USSR\nappears to have no objectives in Tibet itself, and Soviet action in that country will\ndepend upon the Kremlin's policy toward China, and, to a lesser extent, India.\nSECRET\nJ-4"
}