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102
doubtless be attended by a considerable de-
have advocated a western European "Third
gree of Anglo-US friction, but it would leave
Force" bloc or a "little England" divested of
unaffected the relations between the two coun-
all overseas possessions or commitments-both
tries with respect to the highest matters of
based on a rigid neutrality between the US
international policy; the unity of US-UK stra-
and the USSR-have apparently dissolved.
tegic attitudes would not be altered. In mat-
In certain circumstances, however, which
ters of detail, even of important detail such as
could develop out of economic reverses, they
that of East-West trade, however, British pol-
might form again and attract support.
icy would certainly tend to deviate from Amer-
British domestic politics will remain con-
ican as the two economic systems diverged.
stitutionally stable, and there will be no po-
British industry will remain capable of con-
larization of political parties around the ex-
version to arms manufacture on a large scale,
tremes of right and left. Reduction in the
although it would require US support and be
British standard of living, which now ap-
vulnerable to intensive air attack. There are
pears almost inevitable, will probably produce
indications that some encouragement is being
temporarily some degree of political instabil-
lent industrialists to establish elsewhere in
ity, evidenced by diminished support among
the Commonwealth plants capable of arma-
workers for the government, or by the coming
ment production.
to power of an administration with a majority
insufficient to assure decisive rule. Such an
3. Political.
eventuality would certainly tend to diminish
No major deterioration in the extent of
the force of Britain in world affairs, and so
British influence in the world is expected in
adversely to affect US security. No appreci-
the near future. This wide-reaching influence
able increase of Communist or other subver-
will continue to be exerted largely toward ends
sive influences is to be expected.
which serve US interests as well as British.
Under either political party Britain will re-
However, fluctuations in British power will
main fundamentally friendly to the United
follow very closely fluctuations in Britain's
States, and its government will closely cooper-
economic condition. Serious economic de-
ate with the US Government. However,
cline-unchecked by US id-would result in
there is in the UK an element of anti-Ameri-
a reduction of the British will and ability to
can feeling. It is not likely to have appre-
support not only present defense efforts but
ciable influence on public policy, and it is
important overseas commitments and a vigor-
certainly less strong than anti-British feel-
ous anti-Communist policy abroad. The US
ing in the United States. It is sufficient
would be virtually forced to fill the vacuum
nevertheless to make the government have a
left by British withdrawals and to exert the
care to avoid appearances of subservience to
influence which in many parts of the world
US influence, and it could be greatly intensi-
is now competently exerted by Britain. At
fied by injudicious US acts or pronounce-
the present time the minority groups which
ments.
SECRET
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"ocrText": "102\ndoubtless be attended by a considerable de-\nhave advocated a western European \"Third\ngree of Anglo-US friction, but it would leave\nForce\" bloc or a \"little England\" divested of\nunaffected the relations between the two coun-\nall overseas possessions or commitments-both\ntries with respect to the highest matters of\nbased on a rigid neutrality between the US\ninternational policy; the unity of US-UK stra-\nand the USSR-have apparently dissolved.\ntegic attitudes would not be altered. In mat-\nIn certain circumstances, however, which\nters of detail, even of important detail such as\ncould develop out of economic reverses, they\nthat of East-West trade, however, British pol-\nmight form again and attract support.\nicy would certainly tend to deviate from Amer-\nBritish domestic politics will remain con-\nican as the two economic systems diverged.\nstitutionally stable, and there will be no po-\nBritish industry will remain capable of con-\nlarization of political parties around the ex-\nversion to arms manufacture on a large scale,\ntremes of right and left. Reduction in the\nalthough it would require US support and be\nBritish standard of living, which now ap-\nvulnerable to intensive air attack. There are\npears almost inevitable, will probably produce\nindications that some encouragement is being\ntemporarily some degree of political instabil-\nlent industrialists to establish elsewhere in\nity, evidenced by diminished support among\nthe Commonwealth plants capable of arma-\nworkers for the government, or by the coming\nment production.\nto power of an administration with a majority\ninsufficient to assure decisive rule. Such an\n3. Political.\neventuality would certainly tend to diminish\nNo major deterioration in the extent of\nthe force of Britain in world affairs, and so\nBritish influence in the world is expected in\nadversely to affect US security. No appreci-\nthe near future. This wide-reaching influence\nable increase of Communist or other subver-\nwill continue to be exerted largely toward ends\nsive influences is to be expected.\nwhich serve US interests as well as British.\nUnder either political party Britain will re-\nHowever, fluctuations in British power will\nmain fundamentally friendly to the United\nfollow very closely fluctuations in Britain's\nStates, and its government will closely cooper-\neconomic condition. Serious economic de-\nate with the US Government. However,\ncline-unchecked by US id-would result in\nthere is in the UK an element of anti-Ameri-\na reduction of the British will and ability to\ncan feeling. It is not likely to have appre-\nsupport not only present defense efforts but\nciable influence on public policy, and it is\nimportant overseas commitments and a vigor-\ncertainly less strong than anti-British feel-\nous anti-Communist policy abroad. The US\ning in the United States. It is sufficient\nwould be virtually forced to fill the vacuum\nnevertheless to make the government have a\nleft by British withdrawals and to exert the\ncare to avoid appearances of subservience to\ninfluence which in many parts of the world\nUS influence, and it could be greatly intensi-\nis now competently exerted by Britain. At\nfied by injudicious US acts or pronounce-\nthe present time the minority groups which\nments.\nSECRET"
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