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SECRET SUMMARY Afghanistan, which for many years served as a buffer state between Russia and the British in India, is strategically important because it is traversed by the shortest feasible route from the Soviet Union to Pakistan and India. It has a common frontier of more than 1,000 miles with the USSR and makes up the eastern end of the arc formed by Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan. Continuity of government in Afghanistan is assured by the close political and military control exercised by a competent oligarchical regime composed of members of the royal family and a few other select individuals. The government shrewdly main- tains internal stability in the country, with its diverse ethnic and tribal groups, by plac- ing trusted Afghans in positions of control and administration and by settling groups of true Afghan tribesmen in regions adjacent to the USSR. The army is adequate for suppressing tribal uprisings and for maintaining internal order. The large majority of Afghans are dependent on agriculture or animal husbandry, and the standard of living is low. The government, however, is trying to improve living conditions through irrigation projects and the development of small industrial enter- prises. The export of karakul skins provides foreign exchange for the importation of essential goods and for the development of automotive transportation although the current Pakistan-Indian disturbances are preventing or delaying the delivery of essen- tial imports (especially oil products) to land-locked Afghanistan and are impeding the normal flow of Afghan agricultural products to those countries. If prolonged, this situation may impair the political stability of the government. Afghanistan's relations with other nations are generally cordial, although there are recurrent difficulties with Pakistan and Iran. Friction with Pakistan has devel- oped over the status of some three million Pathan tribesmen who live in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province but who have close ethnic and linguistic affinities with the true Afghan tribesmen in Afghanistan. The dispute with Iran has to do with the distribution of the waters of the Helmand River, which flows for most of its course through Afghanistan but empties into a marshy area in Sistan Province, Iran. The USSR appears to have no objectives in Afghanistan itself, and Soviet action against the country will depend on the Kremlin's policy and intent toward the Indian subcontinent (and, to a less extent, toward Iran). The USSR has shown little interest in the internal affairs of Afghanistan although it has expressed concern over US activity in or "penetration" of the country. A few Soviet agents have been active among the peoples in the northern part of Afghanistan, and the USSR may ultimately seek to exploit the ethnic and linguistic relations between these people and groups living across the border inside the Soviet Union. Should over-all Soviet policy in southeast Note: The information contained in this report is as of August 1948. The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Army, Navy, and the Air Force have concurred in this report. SECRET

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    "ocrText": "SECRET\nSUMMARY\nAfghanistan, which for many years served as a buffer state between Russia and the\nBritish in India, is strategically important because it is traversed by the shortest feasible\nroute from the Soviet Union to Pakistan and India. It has a common frontier of more\nthan 1,000 miles with the USSR and makes up the eastern end of the arc formed by\nTurkey, Iran, and Afghanistan.\nContinuity of government in Afghanistan is assured by the close political and\nmilitary control exercised by a competent oligarchical regime composed of members of\nthe royal family and a few other select individuals. The government shrewdly main-\ntains internal stability in the country, with its diverse ethnic and tribal groups, by plac-\ning trusted Afghans in positions of control and administration and by settling groups of\ntrue Afghan tribesmen in regions adjacent to the USSR. The army is adequate for\nsuppressing tribal uprisings and for maintaining internal order.\nThe large majority of Afghans are dependent on agriculture or animal husbandry,\nand the standard of living is low. The government, however, is trying to improve living\nconditions through irrigation projects and the development of small industrial enter-\nprises. The export of karakul skins provides foreign exchange for the importation of\nessential goods and for the development of automotive transportation although the\ncurrent Pakistan-Indian disturbances are preventing or delaying the delivery of essen-\ntial imports (especially oil products) to land-locked Afghanistan and are impeding the\nnormal flow of Afghan agricultural products to those countries. If prolonged, this\nsituation may impair the political stability of the government.\nAfghanistan's relations with other nations are generally cordial, although there\nare recurrent difficulties with Pakistan and Iran. Friction with Pakistan has devel-\noped over the status of some three million Pathan tribesmen who live in Pakistan's\nNorth West Frontier Province but who have close ethnic and linguistic affinities with\nthe true Afghan tribesmen in Afghanistan. The dispute with Iran has to do with the\ndistribution of the waters of the Helmand River, which flows for most of its course\nthrough Afghanistan but empties into a marshy area in Sistan Province, Iran.\nThe USSR appears to have no objectives in Afghanistan itself, and Soviet action\nagainst the country will depend on the Kremlin's policy and intent toward the Indian\nsubcontinent (and, to a less extent, toward Iran). The USSR has shown little interest\nin the internal affairs of Afghanistan although it has expressed concern over US activity\nin or \"penetration\" of the country. A few Soviet agents have been active among the\npeoples in the northern part of Afghanistan, and the USSR may ultimately seek to\nexploit the ethnic and linguistic relations between these people and groups living\nacross the border inside the Soviet Union. Should over-all Soviet policy in southeast\nNote: The information contained in this report is as of August 1948.\nThe intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Army, Navy, and the Air Force\nhave concurred in this report.\nSECRET"
}