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SECRET
MILITARY INDICATIONS OF A POSSIBLE LARGE-SCALE
COMMUNIST ATTACK IN KOREA IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE
THE PROBLEM
To estimate, on the basis of military indications, Communist intentions with regard
to a large-scale military attack in Korea in the immediate future.
CONCLUSIONS
1. There has been a general strengthening of Communist military capabilities
in Korea since the beginning of the armistice negotiations. The enemy is credited with
a greater offensive potential than he had previously enjoyed and is believed capable of
launching a major ground attack with little warning, and air attacks which initially
could be of substantial proportions.
2. In recent weeks there has been increased enemy activity in Korea. There have
also been reports, partly unconfirmed, of aggressive enemy intentions. These activi-
ties and reports do not constitute acceptable indications of a Communist intent to in-
itiate large-scale offensive action in the immediate future. Nevertheless, the
increased military activity in Korea and the general situation in Korea may repre-
sent preparations taken in anticipation of a political decision either:
a. To launch a limited offensive, with little or no warning; or
b. To undertake a large-scale offensive.
ARCHIVES TRUMAN "NATIONAL RECORDS AND DEPARTMENT
U.S.
SERVICE"
DISCUSSION
GOVERNMENT
Communist Capabilities in Korea
all units. (A detailed chart of build-up since
July 1951 is attached hereto as Annex "A.")
3. During the armistice negotiations, the
Communists have substantially increased
4. The Communists have made excellent use
their capabilities in Korea. They have re-
of the long period of fairly static operations to
placed their losses, re-equipped their units, re-
improve their logistical position. As a result
trained their troops, and reorganized and
the supply position of the Communists in for-
redisposed their forces. They have built up
ward areas, despite continued air and naval
their ground forces from an estimated 502,000
attacks by UN forces, is far better than at any
to the present estimate of 866,000 personnel.
time since the Chinese Communist interven-
Qualitative improvement has accompanied
tion in Korea.
the quantitative build-up; they have made sig-
5. The enemy ground forces in Korea could
nificant additions of armor and artillery and
launch a major attack with little warning. It
have substantially increased the fire power of
is estimated that the Communists have the
SECRET
1
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"ocrText": "SECRET\nMILITARY INDICATIONS OF A POSSIBLE LARGE-SCALE\nCOMMUNIST ATTACK IN KOREA IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE\nTHE PROBLEM\nTo estimate, on the basis of military indications, Communist intentions with regard\nto a large-scale military attack in Korea in the immediate future.\nCONCLUSIONS\n1. There has been a general strengthening of Communist military capabilities\nin Korea since the beginning of the armistice negotiations. The enemy is credited with\na greater offensive potential than he had previously enjoyed and is believed capable of\nlaunching a major ground attack with little warning, and air attacks which initially\ncould be of substantial proportions.\n2. In recent weeks there has been increased enemy activity in Korea. There have\nalso been reports, partly unconfirmed, of aggressive enemy intentions. These activi-\nties and reports do not constitute acceptable indications of a Communist intent to in-\nitiate large-scale offensive action in the immediate future. Nevertheless, the\nincreased military activity in Korea and the general situation in Korea may repre-\nsent preparations taken in anticipation of a political decision either:\na. To launch a limited offensive, with little or no warning; or\nb. To undertake a large-scale offensive.\nARCHIVES TRUMAN \"NATIONAL RECORDS AND DEPARTMENT\nU.S.\nSERVICE\"\nDISCUSSION\nGOVERNMENT\nCommunist Capabilities in Korea\nall units. (A detailed chart of build-up since\nJuly 1951 is attached hereto as Annex \"A.\")\n3. During the armistice negotiations, the\nCommunists have substantially increased\n4. The Communists have made excellent use\ntheir capabilities in Korea. They have re-\nof the long period of fairly static operations to\nplaced their losses, re-equipped their units, re-\nimprove their logistical position. As a result\ntrained their troops, and reorganized and\nthe supply position of the Communists in for-\nredisposed their forces. They have built up\nward areas, despite continued air and naval\ntheir ground forces from an estimated 502,000\nattacks by UN forces, is far better than at any\nto the present estimate of 866,000 personnel.\ntime since the Chinese Communist interven-\nQualitative improvement has accompanied\ntion in Korea.\nthe quantitative build-up; they have made sig-\n5. The enemy ground forces in Korea could\nnificant additions of armor and artillery and\nlaunch a major attack with little warning. It\nhave substantially increased the fire power of\nis estimated that the Communists have the\nSECRET\n1"
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