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5 more stringent curbs on consumption in the ite, iron and manganese ores, beryl, and jute other Western countries, where stockpiles are products. Transporting these products to the virtually nonexistent. Present US stocks of Soviet Bloc would present serious problems, these critical classes of mica represent about however, and in any event the amount of a year's supply. Development of new sources goods that the Soviet Bloc could absorb would would be very costly and the efforts being be relatively small, in terms both of South made to develop substitutes cannot be ex- Asia's present exports and of total Soviet Bloc pected to show usable results for several years. consumption. Moreover, the strategic value C. Graphite Since Ceylon is the only of these materials to the Bloc would be source of high-grade amorphous lump graph- meager, except with respect to monazite and ite, the US would have to draw on its stock- rubber. pile, notably for such uses as carbon brushes 19. Conversely, the Soviet Bloc probably in high-altitude aircraft, and would have to could and would provide only limited assist- modify specifications for other end-items ance to a Communist South Asia struggling where inferior grades of graphite might pos- with the major internal readjustments arising sibly be used. At the end of 1951, the US from the transfer of economic and political stockpile was close to its goal, which was power to a Communist regime and from the about three times the amount consumed an- probable cutting-off of major Western im- nually by the US during the latter part of ports. Just as South Asia's principal exports World War II. are commodities for which the Soviet Bloc has d. Jute and jute products - The loss would no great immediate need, SO its principal be serious, involving far-reaching conservation present imports - notably petroleum prod- measures and costly adjustments, especially ucts, machinery and other metal manufac- for countries like those of Western Europe tures, industrial chemicals, and foodstuffs- where substitutes are less readily available. are items which the Communist world cannot e. Other products Development of syn- easily spare. The USSR's willingness and thetic substitutes for Indian kyanite is well ability to make up for the loss of Western under way, and the loss of the Indian product products would be sharply limited by com- should cause no serious difficulties. Loss of peting demands within the Bloc and by the Indian shellac would involve higher costs and Bloc's grave shortage of shipping facilities. widespread inconvenience since different sub- 20. Initially, the shortages of food and petro- stitutes would have to be developed for most leum would be major problems to a Commu- of the various uses of shellac. Loss of Indian nist regime. South Asia now imports about opium would inconvenience the UK, which has four million tons of grain annually. This obtained most of its supply from the subcon- deficiency would probably be met by a variety tinent. The loss of India would cut off a of measures including some imports from the potential supply of coking coal and iron ore USSR, ruthless rationing and crop collection for Japan. methods, and, if the Communists were suffi- ciently well entrenched to clash with religious Effect on the Economic Position of the sentiment, use for human consumption of Soviet Bloc approximately a million tons of grain now con- sumed by monkeys and cattle. Much of 18. In the short run, Communist control of South Asia would provide few economic bene- South Asia's food deficit could be provided by fits to the rest of the Soviet Bloc. The USSR mainland Southeast Asia if that area were would probably exploit India's thorium- Communist. Loss of the six million tons of bearing monazite for atomic energy develop- petroleum now imported from the Middle East ment purposes, and the Bloc as a whole could would almost certainly cause an initial decline probably use the limited amounts of rubber, in industrial output and for some time create cotton, and cotton textiles available for export, bottlenecks in production. However, the ef- as well as moderate amounts of mica, graph- fects would probably not be crippling. Some SECRET

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    "ocrText": "5\nmore stringent curbs on consumption in the\nite, iron and manganese ores, beryl, and jute\nother Western countries, where stockpiles are\nproducts. Transporting these products to the\nvirtually nonexistent. Present US stocks of\nSoviet Bloc would present serious problems,\nthese critical classes of mica represent about\nhowever, and in any event the amount of\na year's supply. Development of new sources\ngoods that the Soviet Bloc could absorb would\nwould be very costly and the efforts being\nbe relatively small, in terms both of South\nmade to develop substitutes cannot be ex-\nAsia's present exports and of total Soviet Bloc\npected to show usable results for several years.\nconsumption. Moreover, the strategic value\nC. Graphite Since Ceylon is the only\nof these materials to the Bloc would be\nsource of high-grade amorphous lump graph-\nmeager, except with respect to monazite and\nite, the US would have to draw on its stock-\nrubber.\npile, notably for such uses as carbon brushes\n19. Conversely, the Soviet Bloc probably\nin high-altitude aircraft, and would have to\ncould and would provide only limited assist-\nmodify specifications for other end-items\nance to a Communist South Asia struggling\nwhere inferior grades of graphite might pos-\nwith the major internal readjustments arising\nsibly be used. At the end of 1951, the US\nfrom the transfer of economic and political\nstockpile was close to its goal, which was\npower to a Communist regime and from the\nabout three times the amount consumed an-\nprobable cutting-off of major Western im-\nnually by the US during the latter part of\nports. Just as South Asia's principal exports\nWorld War II.\nare commodities for which the Soviet Bloc has\nd. Jute and jute products - The loss would\nno great immediate need, SO its principal\nbe serious, involving far-reaching conservation\npresent imports - notably petroleum prod-\nmeasures and costly adjustments, especially\nucts, machinery and other metal manufac-\nfor countries like those of Western Europe\ntures, industrial chemicals, and foodstuffs-\nwhere substitutes are less readily available.\nare items which the Communist world cannot\ne. Other products Development of syn-\neasily spare. The USSR's willingness and\nthetic substitutes for Indian kyanite is well\nability to make up for the loss of Western\nunder way, and the loss of the Indian product\nproducts would be sharply limited by com-\nshould cause no serious difficulties. Loss of\npeting demands within the Bloc and by the\nIndian shellac would involve higher costs and\nBloc's grave shortage of shipping facilities.\nwidespread inconvenience since different sub-\n20. Initially, the shortages of food and petro-\nstitutes would have to be developed for most\nleum would be major problems to a Commu-\nof the various uses of shellac. Loss of Indian\nnist regime. South Asia now imports about\nopium would inconvenience the UK, which has\nfour million tons of grain annually. This\nobtained most of its supply from the subcon-\ndeficiency would probably be met by a variety\ntinent. The loss of India would cut off a\nof measures including some imports from the\npotential supply of coking coal and iron ore\nUSSR, ruthless rationing and crop collection\nfor Japan.\nmethods, and, if the Communists were suffi-\nciently well entrenched to clash with religious\nEffect on the Economic Position of the\nsentiment, use for human consumption of\nSoviet Bloc\napproximately a million tons of grain now con-\nsumed by monkeys and cattle. Much of\n18. In the short run, Communist control of\nSouth Asia would provide few economic bene-\nSouth Asia's food deficit could be provided by\nfits to the rest of the Soviet Bloc. The USSR\nmainland Southeast Asia if that area were\nwould probably exploit India's thorium-\nCommunist. Loss of the six million tons of\nbearing monazite for atomic energy develop-\npetroleum now imported from the Middle East\nment purposes, and the Bloc as a whole could\nwould almost certainly cause an initial decline\nprobably use the limited amounts of rubber,\nin industrial output and for some time create\ncotton, and cotton textiles available for export,\nbottlenecks in production. However, the ef-\nas well as moderate amounts of mica, graph-\nfects would probably not be crippling. Some\nSECRET"
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