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THE WORLD SITUATION OVER THE NEXT DECADE
FOREWORD
This paper has been prepared in the belief that an appraisal of probable long-
term developments in the world situation would be useful, but with the full realiza-
tion that the sum total of our information is insufficient to permit a confident esti-
mate. It is the best educated guess that could be produced, and represents the
agreed view of the members of the Intelligence Advisory Committee.
The General Situation
Communist world dominated from Moscow.
From time to time they may, for tactical pur-
1. A war situation 1 now exists between the
poses, bring about some relaxation of tension,
Soviet Bloc and the group of Western nations
but they do not admit the possibility of a
under the leadership of the United States.
general settlement or of any extended period
The USSR has virtually ended normal diplo-
of peaceful co-existence between capitalism
matic relations with the West and has iso-
and Communism. The Soviet Bloc is increas-
lated the peoples of the Bloc from the rest of
ing in strength, and the control of the Krem-
the world. Trade relations have been severe-
lin over the peoples of the Bloc is firm. So
ly curtailed. Intense competition in arma-
far as can now be seen the menace to the US
ments continues. Armed conflict between
and the free world which is now presented by
Bloc and Western forces is in progress in
the aims and power of the Soviet Bloc and
Korea and Indochina. On each side, an in-
of international Communism will continue
cessant stream of propaganda attempts to
throughout the period of this estimate, and is
mobilize public opinion. The major nations
likely to increase.
of the world have taken positions on one side
or the other. There is no neutral power or
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE
power bloc of sufficient stature to alter ma-
BLOC AND THE WEST
terially the world situation.
The Soviet Bloc
2. If general war does not develop, this situ-
ation will almost certainly continue, possibly
3. The Bloc will probably retain its cohesion
increasing in intensity, throughout the period
and centralized direction throughout the
of this estimate. The Soviet rulers are im-
decade. The European Satellites will proba-
placable in their antagonism toward the free
bly remain under control of the Kremlin, and
world. They have made plain their intention
the Chinese Communists will probably de-
to subvert or destroy it and to establish a
velop a Soviet-type state and society, which
will continue to work in close accord with
the USSR. The Bloc economy will probably
1 By "war situation" we mean the existing situa-
continue to expand, and to be able simultane-
tion of worldwide conflict- not only political
and economic, but also military as well - of a
ously to support further capital expansion,
character and on a scale without close historical
increased military production, and some in-
precedent.
crease in the production of consumers' goods.
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1
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"ocrText": "TOP SECRET\nTHE WORLD SITUATION OVER THE NEXT DECADE\nFOREWORD\nThis paper has been prepared in the belief that an appraisal of probable long-\nterm developments in the world situation would be useful, but with the full realiza-\ntion that the sum total of our information is insufficient to permit a confident esti-\nmate. It is the best educated guess that could be produced, and represents the\nagreed view of the members of the Intelligence Advisory Committee.\nThe General Situation\nCommunist world dominated from Moscow.\nFrom time to time they may, for tactical pur-\n1. A war situation 1 now exists between the\nposes, bring about some relaxation of tension,\nSoviet Bloc and the group of Western nations\nbut they do not admit the possibility of a\nunder the leadership of the United States.\ngeneral settlement or of any extended period\nThe USSR has virtually ended normal diplo-\nof peaceful co-existence between capitalism\nmatic relations with the West and has iso-\nand Communism. The Soviet Bloc is increas-\nlated the peoples of the Bloc from the rest of\ning in strength, and the control of the Krem-\nthe world. Trade relations have been severe-\nlin over the peoples of the Bloc is firm. So\nly curtailed. Intense competition in arma-\nfar as can now be seen the menace to the US\nments continues. Armed conflict between\nand the free world which is now presented by\nBloc and Western forces is in progress in\nthe aims and power of the Soviet Bloc and\nKorea and Indochina. On each side, an in-\nof international Communism will continue\ncessant stream of propaganda attempts to\nthroughout the period of this estimate, and is\nmobilize public opinion. The major nations\nlikely to increase.\nof the world have taken positions on one side\nor the other. There is no neutral power or\nSTRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE\npower bloc of sufficient stature to alter ma-\nBLOC AND THE WEST\nterially the world situation.\nThe Soviet Bloc\n2. If general war does not develop, this situ-\nation will almost certainly continue, possibly\n3. The Bloc will probably retain its cohesion\nincreasing in intensity, throughout the period\nand centralized direction throughout the\nof this estimate. The Soviet rulers are im-\ndecade. The European Satellites will proba-\nplacable in their antagonism toward the free\nbly remain under control of the Kremlin, and\nworld. They have made plain their intention\nthe Chinese Communists will probably de-\nto subvert or destroy it and to establish a\nvelop a Soviet-type state and society, which\nwill continue to work in close accord with\nthe USSR. The Bloc economy will probably\n1 By \"war situation\" we mean the existing situa-\ncontinue to expand, and to be able simultane-\ntion of worldwide conflict- not only political\nand economic, but also military as well - of a\nously to support further capital expansion,\ncharacter and on a scale without close historical\nincreased military production, and some in-\nprecedent.\ncrease in the production of consumers' goods.\nTOP SECRET\n1"
}