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CONF
-18-
ARCHIVES "HATIONAL REDORDS AND B
SERVICE
of China, granted there is a great shortage in Russia
a
against a surplus of these facilities and techniques
and technology in Japan. But Japan hasn't a free choice
and Russia has, and Russia has been known to divert her
attention at the expense of her domestic market and at
the expense of her own people into foreign channels when
she had an objective that looked as if it vere worthwhile
to do it.
I don't believe we can count upon its being a more
dangerous or a more critical proposition for us to give
consideration to the Japanese relationshins with China.
I think we can- count upon it for the short term because
I think it's expedient in Russia. I think Russia's idea
is, just leave it and let it stew in its own juice, with-
out a strain on Russia's resources.
If she felt she could use it as a jumping off point,
I think Russia, having these resources, could divert them
to China as well as Japan could divert them at the expense
of her oun people, which I believe the Kremlin would do if
she felt the price were worth it.
MR. KENNAN: The whole trend of Russian economy in
the past 40 years has been away from that of a trading
nation which had surpluses to give to the rest of the
world and rather toward one which had a hard enough time
supplying her own needs. While the Russian Government is
canable of allotting priorities of very formidable in-
tensity and therefore achieving given objectives in fields
which it marks out for itself as of great importance, it
does that at the cost of huge sacrifice. Its economy is
conducted the hard way and the wasteful way and I don't
think there is a great margin with which to play except
in cases of tremendous national emergency.
Now, you may say that Asia might become of such
importance to Russia that it would be equivalent to one
of those periods of great national emergency and that
they would say this is the time to do what we did during
the world war, to push living standards ruthlessly doun
and free a surplus of the labor of the people to use for
national purposes of this sort. That is possible at a
later date. Right now I thin': most of us tend to forget
how deep and how raw are still the scars of the last war
in Russia, how little of the damage done really has been
repaired, despite the fact that production has been
brought up.
The
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"ocrText": "CONF\n-18-\nARCHIVES \"HATIONAL REDORDS AND B\nSERVICE\nof China, granted there is a great shortage in Russia\na\nagainst a surplus of these facilities and techniques\nand technology in Japan. But Japan hasn't a free choice\nand Russia has, and Russia has been known to divert her\nattention at the expense of her domestic market and at\nthe expense of her own people into foreign channels when\nshe had an objective that looked as if it vere worthwhile\nto do it.\nI don't believe we can count upon its being a more\ndangerous or a more critical proposition for us to give\nconsideration to the Japanese relationshins with China.\nI think we can- count upon it for the short term because\nI think it's expedient in Russia. I think Russia's idea\nis, just leave it and let it stew in its own juice, with-\nout a strain on Russia's resources.\nIf she felt she could use it as a jumping off point,\nI think Russia, having these resources, could divert them\nto China as well as Japan could divert them at the expense\nof her oun people, which I believe the Kremlin would do if\nshe felt the price were worth it.\nMR. KENNAN: The whole trend of Russian economy in\nthe past 40 years has been away from that of a trading\nnation which had surpluses to give to the rest of the\nworld and rather toward one which had a hard enough time\nsupplying her own needs. While the Russian Government is\ncanable of allotting priorities of very formidable in-\ntensity and therefore achieving given objectives in fields\nwhich it marks out for itself as of great importance, it\ndoes that at the cost of huge sacrifice. Its economy is\nconducted the hard way and the wasteful way and I don't\nthink there is a great margin with which to play except\nin cases of tremendous national emergency.\nNow, you may say that Asia might become of such\nimportance to Russia that it would be equivalent to one\nof those periods of great national emergency and that\nthey would say this is the time to do what we did during\nthe world war, to push living standards ruthlessly doun\nand free a surplus of the labor of the people to use for\nnational purposes of this sort. That is possible at a\nlater date. Right now I thin': most of us tend to forget\nhow deep and how raw are still the scars of the last war\nin Russia, how little of the damage done really has been\nrepaired, despite the fact that production has been\nbrought up.\nThe"
}