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J. 333305-M O N O-State Galley 239 UNCORRECTED GALLEY PROOF and prosperity. Politically, while this Government probably would not oppose predominant Soviet influence in the area, neither would it wish American influence to be completely nullified. 2. All of the nations require assistance in improving present primi- tive agricultural methods. All will probably require reconstruction of their railways, replacement of rolling stock, and rehabilitation of road-bed and bridges. Whether Poland will require extensive industrial reconstruction will depend on the future course of the war and whether the Germans "scorch" the area. 3. The United States will share in such reconstruction by Export- Import Bank credits, by technical aid especially to agriculture, and by participation in loans by the proposed International Bank. 4. The Soviet attitude towards United States participation in this area is uncertain. She may feel so strong that American financial aid will not be unwelcome, although she would probably prefer to act as the intermediary or to see the loans made by the International Bank. RECONSTRUCTION OF POLAND AND THE BALKANS: AMERICAN INTERESTS AND SOVIET ATTITUDE 1. Interests of the United States Economic a. Interest in the early return of trade to a multilateral basis under the freest possible conditions. The pattern of Europe's future com- mercial policy will be strongly influenced, if not largely determined, by policies and procedures established during the period of reconstruction. Whether postwar conditions lead back to bilateralism, restriction and autarchy, or are resolved in a manner which will permit the progressive growth and liberalization of trade and investment will depend in no small measure on the ability of the wartorn countries to obtain outside (i. e., mostly American) help in reconstruction. b. Interest in general European economic stability. This stability depends on the maintenance of sound economic conditions and reason- able prosperity in all parts of the Continent. Political It now seems clear that the Soviet Union will exert predomi- nant political influence over the areas in question. While this Govern- ment probably would not want to oppose itself to such a political configuration, neither would it desire to see American influence in this part of the world completely nullified. In the situation which is likely to prevail in Poland and the Balkan states after the war, the United States can hope to make its influence felt only if some degree of equal opportunity in trade, investment, and access to sources of information is preserved. American aid in the reconstruction of these areas would not only gain the good-will of the populations involved, but would also help bring about condi- tions which would permit the adoption of relatively liberal policies of this nature. 2. Types of Reconstruction Needs The reconstruction needs of the areas under reference will, of course, vary from country to country. Poland is the only country that may require extensive industrial reconstruction. This will depend almost entirely on the future course of the war over Polish territory. If the extensive industrial installations in the west remain intact, Poland

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    "ocrText": "J. 333305-M O N O-State\nGalley\n239\nUNCORRECTED GALLEY PROOF\nand prosperity. Politically, while this Government probably would\nnot oppose predominant Soviet influence in the area, neither would it\nwish American influence to be completely nullified.\n2. All of the nations require assistance in improving present primi-\ntive agricultural methods. All will probably require reconstruction\nof their railways, replacement of rolling stock, and rehabilitation of\nroad-bed and bridges. Whether Poland will require extensive\nindustrial reconstruction will depend on the future course of the war\nand whether the Germans \"scorch\" the area.\n3. The United States will share in such reconstruction by Export-\nImport Bank credits, by technical aid especially to agriculture, and\nby participation in loans by the proposed International Bank.\n4. The Soviet attitude towards United States participation in this\narea is uncertain. She may feel so strong that American financial aid\nwill not be unwelcome, although she would probably prefer to act as\nthe intermediary or to see the loans made by the International Bank.\nRECONSTRUCTION OF POLAND AND THE BALKANS: AMERICAN INTERESTS\nAND SOVIET ATTITUDE\n1. Interests of the United States\nEconomic\na. Interest in the early return of trade to a multilateral basis under\nthe freest possible conditions. The pattern of Europe's future com-\nmercial policy will be strongly influenced, if not largely determined, by\npolicies and procedures established during the period of reconstruction.\nWhether postwar conditions lead back to bilateralism, restriction\nand autarchy, or are resolved in a manner which will permit the\nprogressive growth and liberalization of trade and investment will\ndepend in no small measure on the ability of the wartorn countries to\nobtain outside (i. e., mostly American) help in reconstruction.\nb. Interest in general European economic stability. This stability\ndepends on the maintenance of sound economic conditions and reason-\nable prosperity in all parts of the Continent.\nPolitical\nIt now seems clear that the Soviet Union will exert predomi-\nnant political influence over the areas in question. While this Govern-\nment probably would not want to oppose itself to such a political\nconfiguration, neither would it desire to see American influence in\nthis part of the world completely nullified.\nIn the situation which is likely to prevail in Poland and the Balkan\nstates after the war, the United States can hope to make its influence\nfelt only if some degree of equal opportunity in trade, investment,\nand access to sources of information is preserved. American aid\nin\nthe reconstruction of these areas would not only gain the good-will\nof the populations involved, but would also help bring about condi-\ntions which would permit the adoption of relatively liberal policies of\nthis nature.\n2. Types of Reconstruction Needs\nThe reconstruction needs of the areas under reference will, of course,\nvary from country to country. Poland is the only country that may\nrequire extensive industrial reconstruction. This will depend almost\nentirely on the future course of the war over Polish territory. If the\nextensive industrial installations in the west remain intact, Poland"
}