Telegram from Bruce Laingen

EXTRA DECLASSIFIED 3I Per; Rac Project December 10, 1980 ESDN; NLC- 2-33-5-10-7 BY AGP NABA_DATE 7/18/2015 0 N F D E E L SUITE VISITE HICR AUX 3. vous COMPUNIOUE CI-APRES TEXIE RECU - DE d 8. LAINGEN. nuote FOR LINDSTROK FOLLOWING IS ATTEMPY 10 OUTLINE SOKE BASIC GUIDELINES FOR US POLICY IN IMMEDIATE POSJ-HOSTAGE - PERIOD (6-12 HONTHS), OROWING ON BACKGROUND OF MESSAGE SENT LASI WEEK AND GASED ON SONE ADMITTEDLY HAZAROOUS CREBIAL-BALL GAZING AS FAR AS POLITICAL FUTURE HERE IS CONCERNED- 1. US INTERESIS IN POST-MAR IRAN A. PRESERVATION OF IR N'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY ANG INDEPENDENCE B. RESUNED FLOX OF IRAVIAN 011 TO INTEPNATIONAL (NDNZis) ARKETS. C. GENUINE IRDNANNON-BLIGRMENT. 11. POLITICAL ATHOSPHERE WITHIN WHICH KE FURSUE OUR INTERESTS A: DONESTIC AFFAIRS 1. PRESENT IRONIAN LEADERSHIP UNLIKELY TO e E THE PERMANENT INHERITORS OF THE ISLANIC REVOLUTION. 2. ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN EITHER LEADERSHIP OR BASIC POLICIES IS N O T LIKELY, HOWEVER, IN NEAR TERM (6-12 MONTHS). 3. BARRING KHOMEINI'S DEATH, MOST LIKELY OUTLOOK FOR NEAR TERM is CONTINUATION OF PRESENT MUDOLING-THROUGH IN FOLITICAL SCENE, WITH CLERICAL FUNOALENTALISTS GENERALLY RETEINING UPPER MAND BUT CHECK-MATEO FROM TOTAL CONTROL 8Y INFLUENCE OF THOSE LOOSELY DESCRIBED AS MODERATE SECULARISTS AND BY KHOKEINI'S RELUCTANCE TO CO"E DOWN TOTALLY ON ONE SIDE OR THE OIHER. 4. ECONOU IC AND OTHEP DISLOCATIONS CAUSED BY IR DR/IRDE WAR AND IRAN'S DEFONSTRATEO IIITARY UNPREPAREDNESS WILL CAUSE SOWE POLITICAL BACKLASH AGAINST CLERICAL FORCES. THE DEGREE DEPENDENT ON THE WAR'S DURATION AND OUTCO'EE ROLE AND INFLUENCE OF HILITARY GENERALLY SEEMS LIFELY TO BE ENHANCED REGARDLESS OF WAR'S OUTCONE- 5. KHOKEINI'S DEATH DUP.ING HEAR IFRK (6-12 - MONThS) WOULD SEE BH IMMEDIATE RALLYING ROUND IN SUPPORI OF PRESENT SYSTEU AND LEADERSHIP. BUT WITH A GRADUAL DIMINUTION OF CAPACITY OF CLERICS TO EXERCISE POWER BEGINNING SHORILY THEREAFTER WITH SANI SADR AND THE MILITASY THE MOSI LIKELY BENEFICIARIES IN NEAR TERM.