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BRAZIL
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290085225
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BRAZIL
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Memorandum to Dr. Kissinger
From: V.A. Walters
Subject: BRAZIL
1. Brazil with its 90 million people has a population almost equivalent to that
of France and Italy combined. It occupies half the land mass of South America and contains
half its population. Every year there is born in Brazil the equivalent of the population
of Bolivia, every three years the equivalent of Chile and every seven years the equivalent
of Argentina. Lumping it with the "other countries" of South America is a mistake.
Brazil is different from all other South American Countries in that it has
a Portuguese ethnic background. All of Portuguese America is enclosed in its boundaries. It
has no territorial claims or quarrels with its smaller neighbors. Brazilians are not violent.
The last execution by process of law took place in 1856. There have only been two successful
revolutions in Brazil this century. Vargas in 1930 and Castello Branco in 1964. It is
different in that it has always considered that it had a responsibility in international
affairs. It sent a naval squadron to take part in WW I. An Expeditionary Force of 28.000
men which fought in Italy and sustained 2500 casualties. Its navy fought at sea and a fighter
squadron fought in Italy. These were the only Latin American troops to see combat in WW II.
Brazil had 5000 dead through torpedoeings. Under the post 1964 government Brazil responded
immediately to the US request for troops for the Dominican Republic. 1800 soldiers and
marines served there. The government had obtained authority from Congress to send 12.000 men
if we wanted that many. They were supplied by the Brazilian Navy and airforce who also
brought them home. Brazil kept a battalion at Gaza for 11 years, she also sent aircraft to
the Congo and Cyprus and observers to the Indo-Pakistani border. Brazil is different by all
of these things but also and most of all by her future potential. Already Brazil builds
200.000 automobiles a year, she makes television sets, hydroelectric generators. Alone of
all the countries in South America she has the potential to become a great power. She has
the space, the geographic location and the ressources and population to lead the area.
2. 1n 1964 a hostile government was replaced by a friendly and cooperative one
supported by the military but in which military ministers were a minority. The opposition
soon discovered that the government was not repressive andafter the 1966 election and the
return to constitutional government sought to provoke the government into extra constitut-
ional action. This month they succeeded and the government recessed congress and instituted
censorship which has already, I believe, been léffed. The groups which oppose the pre sent
government are largely hostile to the United States. They warn us continuously that we will
be identified in the peoples mind with the present "military government". This is standard
practice in most countries where the government is receiving US aid. The opposition always
tells us this. Of the three major leaders of the opposition Goulart and Lacerda are bitter-
ly hostile to the US. Kubitschek is not. The Far left groups of course are. Brazilians are
universally convinced that Brazil will be a great power, they are nationalistic and touchy
about any interference in their internal affairs. (this is not an exclusively Brazilian
characteristic.). There is no harsh repression in Brazil and the President has stated that
he neither desires nor will he tolerate a dictatorship. I know of no Brazilian Amy officer
who believes that the Army can or should govern Brazil. They do feel that the Armed Forces
are the only group in the comunity which thinks of the nation first, aside from all
regional interests. A Captain incidentally earns about $300 a month
3. I believe that there are three possible alternatives to the present government
in Brazil.
Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library
BRAZIL 2
a) A Communist Castroite takeover led by the Communist Parties (there are two) and
such people as Marcio Moreira Alves whose speech led to the recent crisis. The
consequences of this would be enormous.
b) A government formed by the opposition "Broad Front" which would be as least as
hostile towards us as Goularts was prior to 1964. Such a government would by its
policies scare off foreign investors thus depriving the capital hungry country of
the ressources it must have to keep development ahead of population growth.
C. democratic (by US standards) government, friendly to the United States and whose
policies would be similar to ours. his is in my opinion an extremely remote
possibility for some time to come.
4. What are the options for us
1. Cut off aid from the present government and hope for alternative c.)
2. Disaasociate ourselves from the present government and attempt to win over
the groups which are opposed to it. This is what we did in Cuba and the
results are well known.
3. Continue to give the present government assistance of a developmental
nature (building real infrastructure to increase the country's productivity
rather than assistentialism, helping out on a day to day basis). We should
do all we can to recognize that development must win the race with subversion.
We can if we wish discreetly point out to the government the public relations
ppoblem that they will have in the U.S. if certain practices which are
distateful to large sectors ofour public opinion are continued. If we
quarrel with the present government we lose our ability to influence it. This
does not of course mean that we give them a blank check. We relate performance
to continued assistance.
5. Whether we like it or not it is probable that unless there is a radical takeover that the
military in Brazil as in the other countries of South America will play a far larger part
in the life of the nation than we would like to see them do. This we cannot change in the
near future. As the living standards rise and the institutions become more stable the
military will adjust to their role in Brazil as they have in the more developed countries.
They are in fact the only group in the country with the strength and organization to combat
the subversion that is being attempted on a global scale. We cannot afford to make mistakes
in this area.
6. If Brazil were to be lost it would not be another Cuba. It would be another China.
Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library