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TELCON
3
Rowland Evans/Mr. Kissinger
3:40 p. m., May 9, 1972
E:
I mean this is the May agreement except that it is cut from 9 to 4 months.
The May offer.
K:
Yeah, but I've never fully understood why they didn't accept the May
offer.
E:
But this would have the same results in the New Year or in 6 months.
K:
No; I think after -- Look, one of two things will happen after this
offensive. Either the North will win, in which case no offer makes
any difference. And what we've done now is just a means by which
we get our prisoners back.
E:
Yeah.
K:
Or the North will lose, in which case it won't be able to come back
for another two years.
E:
I see.
K:
They cannot do this offensive again this way.
E:
Not if we shut off the supplies.
K:
Well, not if we shut off the supplies. In any event, in order to defeat
us, they will have to fantastic losses. They are already taking enormous
losses.
E:
Um-humm.
K:
We estimate that they have had about 50, 000 casualties already. Now
that's like we taking 500, 000; not all dead, we think about 25, 000 dead
and an equal number wounded.
E:
But, Henry, if in the next three weeks, they do happen to take Hue
and Komtum, our offer still stands.
K:
Well, I think they'11 take Komtum.
E:
Humm. But our offer still stands.
K:
Yeah but you know we haven't spelled it out in absolute detail.
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"ocrText": "TELCON\n3\nRowland Evans/Mr. Kissinger\n3:40 p. m., May 9, 1972\nE:\nI mean this is the May agreement except that it is cut from 9 to 4 months.\nThe May offer.\nK:\nYeah, but I've never fully understood why they didn't accept the May\noffer.\nE:\nBut this would have the same results in the New Year or in 6 months.\nK:\nNo; I think after -- Look, one of two things will happen after this\noffensive. Either the North will win, in which case no offer makes\nany difference. And what we've done now is just a means by which\nwe get our prisoners back.\nE:\nYeah.\nK:\nOr the North will lose, in which case it won't be able to come back\nfor another two years.\nE:\nI see.\nK:\nThey cannot do this offensive again this way.\nE:\nNot if we shut off the supplies.\nK:\nWell, not if we shut off the supplies. In any event, in order to defeat\nus, they will have to fantastic losses. They are already taking enormous\nlosses.\nE:\nUm-humm.\nK:\nWe estimate that they have had about 50, 000 casualties already. Now\nthat's like we taking 500, 000; not all dead, we think about 25, 000 dead\nand an equal number wounded.\nE:\nBut, Henry, if in the next three weeks, they do happen to take Hue\nand Komtum, our offer still stands.\nK:\nWell, I think they'11 take Komtum.\nE:\nHumm. But our offer still stands.\nK:\nYeah but you know we haven't spelled it out in absolute detail."
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