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This file contains:
copy of envelope marked "Haldeman Private Polls Campaign '68" [Other Document], n.d.
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: South Dakota poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Iowa poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Haldeman handwritten notes marked "dirge" re: status of campaign polls; recognize the gap has closed, race is tight, but still confident strategy is correct. 1 page. [Other Document], 11/3/1968
Haldeman Handwritten notes marked "From Veweman to Finch" re: Dorothy Coy & Associates polling; conclude Nixon has lost one point in 7-10 days. Credits "Meet the Press" appearance. 1 page. [Memo], n.d.
Haldeman Handwritten note marked "From Chet" re: polling results.1 page. [Other Document], n.d.
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Oregon poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Washington poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Hawaii poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Wyoming poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Montana poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Haldeman Handwritten notes marked "Chotiner" listing polling results from several states, 2 pages. [Report], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Idaho poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Report showing electoral votes available by state, poll results indicating votes by date. 1 page. [Report], 10/31/1968
John Sears to Nixon re: Course of the campaign as of October 15, 1968. 6 pages. [Memo], 10/15/1968
Report of Switches in voting preference by state (NY, TX, PA, NJ, MI, OH) with attachment. 7 pages. [Report], n.d.
Report of instant research: last interview 10/27/1968, showing poll results, with attached survey sample. 8 pages. [Report], 10/27/1968
Memo from Peter Flanigan to Haldeman re: Poll results from phone interviews in 8 northern states. 4 pages. [Memo], 11/1/1968
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26126967
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WHSF: Returned, 36-12
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document
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26126967
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Returned, 36-12
description
This file contains:
copy of envelope marked "Haldeman Private Polls Campaign '68" [Other Document], n.d.
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: South Dakota poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Iowa poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Haldeman handwritten notes marked "dirge" re: status of campaign polls; recognize the gap has closed, race is tight, but still confident strategy is correct. 1 page. [Other Document], 11/3/1968
Haldeman Handwritten notes marked "From Veweman to Finch" re: Dorothy Coy & Associates polling; conclude Nixon has lost one point in 7-10 days. Credits "Meet the Press" appearance. 1 page. [Memo], n.d.
Haldeman Handwritten note marked "From Chet" re: polling results.1 page. [Other Document], n.d.
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Oregon poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Washington poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Hawaii poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Wyoming poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Montana poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Haldeman Handwritten notes marked "Chotiner" listing polling results from several states, 2 pages. [Report], 11/4/1968
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Idaho poll. 1 page. [Memo], 11/4/1968
Report showing electoral votes available by state, poll results indicating votes by date. 1 page. [Report], 10/31/1968
John Sears to Nixon re: Course of the campaign as of October 15, 1968. 6 pages. [Memo], 10/15/1968
Report of Switches in voting preference by state (NY, TX, PA, NJ, MI, OH) with attachment. 7 pages. [Report], n.d.
Report of instant research: last interview 10/27/1968, showing poll results, with attached survey sample. 8 pages. [Report], 10/27/1968
Memo from Peter Flanigan to Haldeman re: Poll results from phone interviews in 8 northern states. 4 pages. [Memo], 11/1/1968
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Returned White House Special Files
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1
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yes
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no
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26126967
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description
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nara-archive
Single page context
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ocrText
Richard Nixon Presidential Library
White House Special Files Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
Document Type
Document Description
36
12
n.d.
Other Document
copy of envelope marked "Haldeman Private
Polls Campaign '68"
36
12
11/04/1968
Memo
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: South
Dakota poll. 1 page.
36
12
11/04/1968
Memo
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Iowa
poll. 1 page.
36
12
11/03/1968
Other Document
Haldeman handwritten notes marked "dirge"
re: status of campaign polls; recognize the
gap has closed, race is tight, but still
confident strategy is correct. 1 page.
36
12
n.d.
Memo
Haldeman Handwritten notes marked "From
Veweman to Finch" re: Dorothy Coy &
Associates polling; conclude Nixon has lost
one point in 7-10 days. Credits "Meet the
Press" appearance. 1 page.
36
12
n.d.
Other Document
Haldeman Handwritten note marked "From
Chet" re: polling results. 1 page.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Page 1 of 3
Box Number Folder Number Document Date
Document Type
Document Description
36
12
11/04/1968
Memo
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Oregon
poll. 1 page.
36
12
11/04/1968
Memo
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re:
Washington poll. 1 page.
36
12
11/04/1968
Memo
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Hawaii
poll. 1 page.
36
12
11/04/1968
Memo
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re:
Wyoming poll. 1 page.
36
12
11/04/1968
Memo
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re:
Montana poll. 1 page.
36
12
11/04/1968
Report
Haldeman Handwritten notes marked
"Chotiner" listing polling results from
several states, 2 pages.
36
12
11/04/1968
Memo
Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman re: Idaho
poll. 1 page.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Page 2 of 3
Box Number Folder Number Document Date
Document Type
Document Description
36
12
10/31/1968
Report
Report showing electoral votes available by
state, poll results indicating votes by date. 1
page.
36
12
10/15/1968
Memo
John Sears to Nixon re: Course of the
campaign as of October 15, 1968. 6 pages.
36
12
n.d.
Report
Report of Switches in voting preference by
state (NY, TX, PA, NJ, MI, OH) with
attachment. 7 pages.
36
12
10/27/1968
Report
Report of instant research: last interview
10/27/1968, showing poll results, with
attached survey sample. 8 pages.
36
12
11/01/1968
Memo
Memo from Peter Flanigan to Haldeman re:
Poll results from phone interviews in 8
northern states. 4 pages.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Page 3 of 3
Poll S.
Campaign ' 68
MEMORANDUM
NOVEMBER 4, 1968
TO:
HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLIE McWHORTER
RE:
SOUTH DAKOTA
Contact is Jack Gibson, GOP National Committeeman.
Latest South Dakota poll, interviewing done October 25-27 and published
on October 30, shows the following:
October 30
October 16
RN
58
49
HHH
26
21
Wallace
10
18
Undecided
6
12
RN's lead increased in the last half of October from 28 points to 32 points
with an 8-point drop by Wallace.
Projecting the undecided votes, RN could get as much as 62%.
The McGoverno-Gubbrud race for United States Senate is still close.
The bombing pause does not seem to have any great impact.
Agriculture, War in Vietnam and law and order are the principle issues
affecting South Dakota voters.
MEMORANDUM
NOVEMBER 4, 1968
TO:
HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLIE McWHORTER
RE:
IOWA
Contact is Jack Warren, Republican State Chairman.
The latest Iowa poll, released October 27, shows the following:
RN
56
HHH
37
GW
7
total
This works out to a plurality for RN of 238,000 with a vote of 1,250,000.
Bob Ray should win his race for Governor by 150,000 votes.
The Hughes-Stanley race is still a toss-up. RN is heavily favored
by absentee voters. Already over 2500 received in Black Hawk County
(Waterloo). This is very high and reflects the results of GOP efforts
to get absentee ballots from patients of nursing homes.
Democrats are still pushing the charge that RN is against medicare and
Social Security. This should be met head on.
cant afford a projection to wipe than out
11/3
there are perfect figs for them 1
Deugs
cause totally hedged.
bad allocate in fundecided
File
if Nuris can say right
if Hurns can say they had trend
interprets -
N holding his own - stayed at Y3-44- 00
probly about Same ple
H picking up defectors - in routy undee.
w deteriorating
N proby have 2-3mill margin
asked ballip tomorrow for reg'c figs.
if change is constant all regions - have pub
expectigate shift mE
,e NY injespandy
Hpuly closed gap
in NY- mich - where pts matter
up. among women t labor
gap has closed- we knew it would
still have safe margin in right pace
women are the /linible ones- they're bray brH.
To: Finch
tiom: Veweman
Donothy Coy + Associates
Believes a 4 point spread between RN
HHH.
G.W. might go down to 5%
Has not been in the field for 7-10 days
at that time RN had 5% lead,
Conclusion R.N has only lost
/ point in7-10 days.
from work she has done Muchare
to high on Cranston
RN keeped on "meet the Press."
Believes be swayed underided voters,
From Chot
Missouri - St. Loin Globe Dem.
RW
HHH
3
V
38
32.2
15.9
13.9
paper predict RW carry state by 100,000
but Dem. landslide for rest of ticket.
RN chan man predict RNcary state
by 35,000
MEMORANDUM
NOVEMBER 4, 1968
TO:
HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLIE McWHORTER
RE:
OREGON
Contact is Irving Enna, Republican State Chairman.
Portland Oregonian had a poll two weeks ago which showed the following
approximate results:
RN
55%
HHH
40%
Wallace 5%
Senator McCarthy has recently made a visit to Oregon in support of
Senator Morse and also endorsed Humphrey. Since the biggest group op
undecided voters were McCarthy people, this may have increased Humphrey's
share of the vote.
Enna believes that RN can still carry Oregon by a comfortable majority.
He reports that the Democrats are using a great many spots on radio which
stress RN's opposition to Social Security and medicare. Anything RN
can say in the telethon to correct this would be helpful.
MEMORANDUM
NOVEMBER 4, 1968
TO:
HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLIE McWHORTER
RE:
WASHINGTON
Contact is Gummy Johnson, Republican State Chairman.
The state GOP stopped surveying on October 24. Central Surveys handled
the polling operation.
Leaving out the heavily Republican Fourth Congressional District, the most
recent poll shows:
RN
43% - holding firm from Sepgember poll
HHH
37% - was 29% in September
Wallace 6% - was 12 in September
Undecided - 14%
Johnson believes that Wallace will do better than this and that two out of
three Wallace voters are normally Democratic voters.
There have been 100,000 absentee ballots, including aheavy military
ballot.
Johnson estimates that 76% turn-out of registered voters - down about 3%
from 1964.
His projection of percentage and actual vote is as follows:
RN - 47% - 590,000 voters
HHH - 41% - 515,000
Wallace - 8% - 100,000
Other - 4% - 50,000
Johnson stressed the need for emphasis by RN on positive solution to problems
facing the Nation as the best way of holding on to Democrats who now plan to
vote for RN or who may be on the fence.
Johnson thinks that personal attacks on Humphrey and Johnson are not
effective with Democratic voters.
MEMORANDUM
November 4, 1968
TO:
HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLIE McWHORTER
RE:
HAWAII
Contact is Ed Johnston, Republican State Chairman
There have been no authoritative polls taken in Hawaii. Senator Fong
and Johnston both believe that RN will carry the state based on
strong RN showing in Oahu and the Island of Hawaii.
The largest newspaper in the Islands, the Star Bulletin, endorsed RN, as
have most of the local weekly press. The afternoon paper, The
Advertiser, has endorsed Humphrey but recently has been critical of the
bombing halt insofar as it represents a failure to take into account
the wishes of the people of South Vietnam.
The Humphrey telethon is also being carried in Hawaii, according to
Johnston's information.
MEMORANDUM
NOVEMBER 4, 1968
TO:
HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLIE McWHORTER
RE:
WYOMING
Contact is Bud Brimmer, GOP State Chairman.
A poll completed last week for the State GOP showed the following:
RN
51.5
HHH
38.4
Wallace
10.1
In the House race, John Wold was leading 61.8 to 38.2
MEMORANDUM
NOVEMBER 4, 1968
TO:
HALDEMAN
FROM
CHARLIE McWHORTER
RE:
MONTANA
Contact is Doc Keller, GOP State Chairman.
There have been no newspaper polls but Keller's best estimate
is as follows:
RN
50
HHH
40
Wallace 10
Absentee voting is heavy and the GOP has made a special emphasis on getting
out the vote in the 7 big Republican counties.
It is expected that the GOP will pick up a new House seat but
Babcock's race is nip and tuck
PV
11/4/68
Chotiner -
Penn- Bucci
46
42
12
Del
45
41
14
Iowa- Der Moin Register
56 37 7
Illi
Cheyo Sun Timer
46.86 39.64 15.50
planalety 425,000
Detroit News.
38
47
11
4.
Creighter Holden
Reg. up 200,000 over 1964.
Detroit down 54,000
Wagne County up 83,000
High absertee lallot in Rep
Fla - Bell through Murphin
area. People ready to go.
125,000 pluality
40 26 39.
Tenn - Bd Fami RN chain
50,000 f. plurality
Med + Went split evenly before above 3 cand.
Eat The solid foRN
Howard Rober. 75,000. plurality
Electon day act. net/ of.
N.C.
RN chain.
38 to 40% of voter
Wallace 50.50 RN they
Net split evenly.
SC. - Dent. - alere RN will any state
Wallace vote going to RW an HHIT going nationally.
40 30 30
Kentucly- people confident accordito John Ken.
Election day act net up.
MEMORANDUM
NOVEMBER 4, 1968
TO:
HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLIE McWHORTER
RE:
IDAHO
Contact is Nixon State Headquarters
Information furnished to Flanigan in New York indicates the following
probably results:
RN
55
HHH
32
Wallace
13
A Senate race between Church and Hansen is very close. Antying RN
can say in the telethon to help Hansen would be appreciated. If anything,
the bombing pause benefits RN rather than HHH.
10/31/68
Elect.
ORC
OTHER
POLLS
Electoral Votes
BACHELDER
State
Votes
N
H
W
Date
NHW
Date
NHW
Date
N
H
W
Conflict
10/19-25
Ala.
10
10
Alaska
3
51
16
33State Mid Sept
2
Ariz.
5
55
21
10 M-W Early Oct
5
Ark.
6
29
20
39Rockefeller 10/15
6
41-34-10
Calif.
40
47
37
9
Oct, 4.
45
35
7, Muchmore Mid Oct,
44
33
7L.A. Times 9/28-29(.)
40
Colo.
6
4.6
30
13 Denver Post 10/1
50
3]
13 M-W 9/23
A
Conn.
8
35
33
10 MORC Early Oct
44
31
12 Becker, mid Oct.
8
Del.
3
40
34
13
Oct. 21
45
41
14 Bucci Oct 31
Fla.
14
34
26
36
Oct. 4
34
20
27 Cambridge 10/10-17
30
24
43 Bucci 10/16-23(400)
14
*
Ga.
12
Hawaii
4
35
43
13
Benham Early Oct
4
Idaho
4
51
31
18
Sept 29
52
17
10 M-W Early Oct
4
40-32-13
Ill.
26
48
31!
13
Oct. 4
48
39
LaMarket Facts 10/12
47
38
14
Sun Times 10/11(f)
26
Ind.
13
43
32
19
Morc 10/3
46
25
17
Ind. News 9/21
13
Io.
9
51
30
14
C-S 9/20
0
Kan.
7
48
24
8
M-W 10/18
46
21
13
M-W 9/20
7
Ky.
9
33
24
25
10/2-6 phone
30
17
2d
Hays 9/17
9
La.
10
23
15
48
M-W Late Sept.
10
Maine
4
47
25
5
MORC Mid Aug.
21
Md.
10
37
28
14
Late Sept phone
34
32
17
MORC 10/19-20
10
*
Mass.
14
31
44
8 Becker9/19-10/2
74
37-35-11
Mich.
21
46
39
13
Oct. 18
39455715
Det. News lateOct
36
3]
12
ORC phone 10/12(e)
21
Minn.
10
40
43
6
Bachelder 10/20
44
42
9
Tribune 10/13
10
*
Miss.
7
14
24
54
Reed Early Sept
7
39-32-14
Mo.
12
39
37
17
Oct.4
41
29
20
M-W Oct. 5
la
Mon.
4
21.
Neb.
5
52
19
12
Neb Poll 10/1
5
r
Nev.
3
42
36
13
M-W Early Oct.
w
N.H.
4
60
23
4 Becker 10/19-20
"
36-33-11
N.J.
17
48
37
10
Oct. 18
45
32
15
Bucci mid Oct
17
N.M.
4
11
See state note
N.Y.
43
50
37
6
Oct. 18
43.6
LIF
Daily News 10/26-20
31
29
10
Cambri dge 10/6
43
N.C.
13
30
22
33
late Sept phone
31
26
30
HHH Oct. 24
13
N.D.
4
47
27
8
C-S 9/23
4
40-32-13
Ohio
26
37
41
17
Oct. 18
44 139
17
Morc 10/19 phone
37
36
19
ORC 10/4 (d)
*
Okla
8
43
29
24
Oklahoman 11/1
46 124
28
Bellmon 10/15
35
21
20
M-W Early Sept
8
Oreg.
6
50 32
C
B & H 10/23
49
20
4 Camp. West 9/15
6
41-30-10
Pa.
29
49
40
8
Oct. 18
48
40
12
Bucci 10/10-16
42
33
a
ORC phone 10/13(c)
29
R.I.
4
46
CTV.
31
10
2/pate Sept pnone
32
20
29 C-S 10/7-12
S.D.
4
58
26
10 State 10/30
56
24
8
State 9/29
1
Tenn.
11
31
16
39
Phone 9/25
34
25
41 Quayle ?
31
25
40
Bucci 10/18 (a.)
11
TCX.
25
38
38
21
Oct.18
33
37
21 Bowles Mid Oct
40
28
23
M-W Panel earlyOcth
*
Utah
4
52
17
10 Panel early Oct
53
21
8
M-W 8/19-26
4
Ala.
10
10
Alaska
3
51
16
State Mid Sept
3
Ariz.
5
55
21
10 M-W Early Oct
5
Ark.
6
29
20
39Rockefeller 10/15
6
41-34-10
Calif.
40
47
37
9 Oct.4
45
35
7 Muchmore Mid Oct
44
33
7L A. Times 9/28-29(.)
40
Colo.
6
4.6
30
13 Denver Post 10/1
50
3]
13
M-W 9/23
A
Conn.
CO
35
33
10 MORC Early Oct
44
31
12
Becker, mid Oct.
8
Del.
3
40
34
13
Oct. 21
45
41
14 Bucci Oct 31
Fla.
14
34
26
36
Oct. 4
34
20
27
Cambridge 10/10-17
30
24
43 Bucci 10/16-23(400)
14
*
Ga.
12
Hawaii
4
35
43
13
Benham Early Oct
4
Idaho
4
51
31
18
Sept 29
52
17
10 M-W Early Oct
41
40-32-13
Ill.
26
48
31
13
Oct. 4
48
39
12Market Facts 10/12
47
38
14
Sun Times 10/21 (f)
26
Ind.
13
43
32
19
Morc 10/3
46
25
17
Ind. News 9/21
13
IO.
9
51
30
14
C-S 9/20
9
Kan.
7
48
24
8
M-W 10/18
46
21
13
M-W 9/20
7
Ky.
9
33
24
25
10/2-6 phone
30
17
20
Hays 9/17
9
La.
10
23
15
48
M-W Late Sept.
10
Maine
4
47
25
r
MORC Mid Ave.
1
Md.
10
37
28
14
Late Sept phone
34
32
17
MORC 10/19-20
10
*
Mass.
14
31
44
8
Becker9/19-10/2
14
37-35-11
Mich.
21
46
39
13
Oct. 18
39
Det. News lateOct
36
3]
12
ORC phone 10/12(e)
21
Minn.
10
40
43
6
Bachelder 10/20
44
42
9
Tribune 10/13
10
*
Miss.
7
14
24
54
Reed Early Sept
7
39-32-14
Mo.
12
39
37
17
Oct.4
47
29
20
M-W Oct. 5
la
Mon.
4
411
Neb.
5
52
19
12
Neb Poll 10/1
5
Nev.
3
42
36
13
M-W Early Oct.
&
N.H.
4
60
23
4 Becker 10/19-20
L1
36-33-11
N.J.
17
48
37
10
Oct.18
45
32
15
Bucci mid Oct
17
N.M.
4
11
See state note
N.Y.
43
50
37
6
Oct. 18
43.6
Daily News 10/26-29
31
29
10
Cambridge 10/6
43
N.C.
13
30
22
33
late Sept phone
31
26
30
HHH Oct. 24
13
N.D.
4
47
27
8
C-S 9/23
4
40-32-13
Ohio
26
37
41
17
Oct. 18
44
39
17
Morc 10/19 phone
37
36
19
ORC 10/4 (d)
*
Okla
8
Y3
29
24
Oklahoman 11/1
46
24
28
Bellmon 10/15
35
21
20
M-W Early Sept
8
Oreg.
6
50
32
C
B & H 10/23
49
20
4
Camp. West 9/15
8
41-30-10 Pa.
29
49
40
8
Oct. 18
48
40
12
Bucci 10/10-16
42
33
0
ORC phone 10/13(c)
29
R.I.
4
46
....
31
TO
LI
Late sept phone
32
20
29 C-S 10/7-12
S.D.
4
58
26
10 State 10/30
56
24
8
State 9/29
4
Tenn.
11
31
16
39
Phone 9/25
34
25
41
Quayle ?
31
25
4.0
Tex.
Bucci 10/18 (a)
II
25
38
38
21
Oct.18
33
37
21 Bowles Mid Oct
40
28
23
M-W Panel (B)
-X-
Utah
4
52
17
10 M-W Panel early Oct
53
21
8
M-W 8/19-26
I
Vt.
3
56
29
5
Becker 9/30
Va.
3
12
35
19
3]
9/20 phone
12
Wash.
9
43
29
12
C-S 9/23
37
36
9
Quayle Oct. 25
9
W.Va.
7
40
35
18
Harris Oct. 5
See state note
Wisc:
12
45
36
11
Oct, 4
4.6
30
13
MORC 10/1
12
Wyo.
3
(a) HHH's poll
RN 37
HHH 20
GW 34
(b) Bachelder Oct.19-24
RN 31
HHH 31
GW 23
U 14
(c) Bachelder Oct.19-24
RN 40
HHH 30
GW 10
U 18
(d) Bachelder Oct.19-24
RN 39
HHH 32
GW 13
U 15
(e) Bachelder Oct.19-24
RN 37
HHH 35
GW 11
U 15
(f) Bachelder Oct.19-24
RN 40
HHH 31
GW 13
U 15
(g) Bachelder Oct.19-24
RN 40
HHH 33
GW 10
U 13
MEMORANDUM
TO: RN
From: John Sears
RE: Course of the Campaign as of October 15, 1968
SN - Strong Nixon
SH - Strong Humphrey
SW - Strong Wallace
LN - Leaning Nixon
LH - Leaning Humphrey
LW - Leaning Wallace
U - Undecided
U-4 MAINE
The hope still is that the registration advantage that we have will be enough to
overcome Muskie's hometown popularity. So far the Democrats have failed to put it
on the basis of electing the hometown boy. The Portland Congressional district
appears in good shape; the out-state district, although it has made some progress,
looks as though it will fall short.
SN-3 VERMONT
Sure bet, should pick up a Governor. Nobody in any trouble.
SN-4 NEW HAMPSHIRE
No problem, Cotten will win, Wyman and Cleveland all right. Should win the Governor-
ship fairly easily.
LH-MASSACHUSETTS
Democrats are a little bit better off as of now than they were a couple of weeks ago
and HHH gaining strength because of this. Unlikely that there will be any change in
the House delegation.
SH-4 RHODE ISLAND
Just no way we could carry it.
U-8 CONNECTICUT
Locals still very optimistic about our chances but have little substantial evidence to
indicate that we're doing as well as they think we are. With a large number of
Independent voters in Connecticut it would be silly to feel that we have
a very strong position there. HHH will be there on the 18th and perhaps we will learn
something from his reception. Because of the party lever, Congressional races
depend a great deal on the top of the ticket. If we do win the state, we should pick
up the 2nd, 4th and hold the 6th districts. The Senate race looks impossible.
U-43 NE W YORK
Even though out-registered by 800, 000 votes, we could possible win here if things
continue to go a S well as they have lately. I do not believe, however, that we are
anything like 6 points ahead which is what our recent poll indicated. Congressional
races remain about the same. Javits will be reelected by a fantastic vote, some
polls show that Budkley might even beat out O' Dwyer.
LN
NEW JERSEY
Miraclously we continue to lead in New Jersey despite the horrible shape of the state-
wide party. Wallace is pulling substantial number of Union votes from the Democrats.
Chance of picking up 2 Congressional seats.
LN-29 PENNSYLVANIA
We continue to do well in Pennsylvania. The prospects remain excellent for substan-
tially reducing the Democratic margins from their 1960 level of votes in Philadelphia
Page 2
and Pittsburg. State party needs money, however. Clark can beat Schweiker fairly eas-
ily. Reading's Congressional district looks about even at the moment and we might
pick it up.
SN-3 DELAWARE
Wallace hurting us a little bit down-state, but killing the Democrats in Wilmington.
Congressional District seat safe, Gubernatorial race will be close. Governor Terry
(a Democrat) suffered a heart attack and of course this will hamper his campaign,
might also result in a sympathy vote.
U-10 MARYLAND
Difficult for me to believe that the State won't go to HHH but the voting patterns are
SO mixed up at the moment we can't quite see how HHH's got it yet. Democratic
strength will hold in the city of Baltimore, will be reduced in Baltimore County by
Wallace and the situation in suburban Washington is unsettled in any direction. Our
normal strength on the Eastern shore will be hurt by Wallace and this will be true to
a lesser degree in the out-state areas. Mathias's being benefited by Mahoney's 3rd
party candidacy in the Senate race and I'm beginning to think he's going to win although
he's trying hard not to. Chances of picking up the 5th District look better and better
- 3 incumbents we have all safe.
SN-12 VIRGINIA
Still looks good, may pick up two House seats; one in the 2nd, one in the 7th.
LW-13 NORTH CAROLINA
Wallace still ahead, time running out to catch him, Governor's race will depend on
how the Wallace vote goes. Should hold seats we now have. Good chance of picking
up two, possibly one other.
LW 8 SOUTH CAROLINA
RN picking up a great deal recently and may well come out and win it, but it still
leans to Wallace the 4th District will be close but we won't win it. May win in
3rd District. Senatorial race will be determined on how the Wallace vote goes.
SW GEORGIA
Looks like a sure thing for Wallace, but we should hold our two Congressional seats.
14
LN - FLORIDA
Polls might not reflect this at the moment but I think we're doing a lot better in
Florida. Wallace a close second. Senate race looks in the bag for Gurney. May
pick up as many as 3 Congressional seats.
SW - 10 ALABAMA
No Chance
SW - 10 LOUISIANA
No Chance
SW - 7 MISSISSIPPI
No Chance
LN - 11 TENNESSEE
Page 3
We are marginally ahead but we are fairly secure. The Wallace vote has peaked
and is starting down-hill. Will hold out four Congressional seats but won't pick
up any.
LN-9 KENTUCKY
Should come out of Louisville with a lead. Wallace hurting us in the 5th District, but
hurting Democrats worse in both the Eastern and Western parts of the state. Locals
say possibility of picking up Congressional seat in either the 2nd or the 6th. I
think this is doubtful, however. Senate race shows Cook ahead and gaining.
LW-6 ARKANSAS
State still could be won if we had any time to spend in it. Polls show RN is held in
great esteem in Arkansas and really all that needs to be done is to convince a decent
number of the voters that Wallace can't win. Might pick up one Congressman.
Fullbright will be reelected but not by that large of a margin.
SH-7 WEST VIRGINIA
Will be close, HHH has a hard core of votes that will add up to enough to win. Moore
looks as though he'll win the Governor's seat. We'll hold his old seat in the 1st
District, but won't pick up any.
LN-25 TEXAS
Only way we'd lost it, if Wallace got stronger. Polls are all over the lot. Some
show us ahead, some behind, but the important thing is that the organization is in
good shape and there's more enthusiasum than there was 8 years ago for RN. Wallace
hurting HHH badly in the East. We seem to be getting back some of our votes in
Dallas and Houston. Will hold the 3 House seats we have. Might pick up a couple more.
Governor's race will be a lot closer than most people expect, but I still don't think
we can win.
LN-27 OHIO
Poll here would probably show us running about even with HHH but the fact that our
Republican organization is so much better than the Democrats is enough to tack 3 or 4
points on the poll. Saxbe should beat Gilligan and we'll hold all our Congressional
seats with the possible exception of Frances Bolton.
SN-13 INDIANA
Same problem with Wallace here, but he'll cut down on the Democrats more than us.
Will hold all 6 Congressional seats and good chance of picking up 2 more and an outside
chance of picking up four. Whitcomb looks secure in his race. Ruckelhaus still about
10 points down to Bayh, but Bayh has dropped below 50% in the polls. (47%) and Ruckelhaus
has made headway since the last poll.
LN-21 MICHIGAN
Still have a problem in some Republican areas with Wallace, but there's no doubt he's
hurting the Democrats badly - the election will be close but we are better organized
and unified, this should make the difference. None of the Congressional candidates in
any trouble but won't pick up any.
SN-26 ILLINOIS
Rn is strongly ahead - no real problems as long as everybody keeps working. Dirksen
still far ahead, Ogilvie narrowly ahead. Might pick up a Congressional seat somewhere
around Chicago.
Page 4
SN-12 WISCONSIN
Sure thing, only question is by how much. Knowles will be relected easily. Senate
race will depend on size of RN's margin.
SN-9 IOWA
No doubt about the outcome. Bob Ray should run pretty close to the top of the ticket.
Stanley still behind but still has time to come on. 2nd District Congressional seat
still doesn't look too promising but Culver now under 50% in the polls and this is a
good sign.
U-10 MINNESOTA
Will be very close race but would have to pick HHH if we were betting; most recent
polls show us with a small lead. Will hold the 5 Congressional seats. Might pick up
one in Minneapolis.
SN-4 NORTH DAKOTA
Will win it easily. Neither of the 2 Congressmen nor Senator Young is in any real
danger. Gubernatorial race is getting tighter and will certainly take it if RN's margin
is as big as everyone expects.
SN-4 SOUTH DAKOTA
We'll win easily; McGovern now going back in front of Gubbred. Will take the
Governorship easily and will hold both Congressional seats easily.
SN-5 NEBRASKA
May hit 70%, none of the 3 Congressional candidates in any trouble.
SN-7 KANSAS
Will carry it big. Dole running far ahead in the Senate race. Might pick up the
Governorship. None of the Congressmen in any trouble.
LN-12 MISSOURI
Although the polls still show HHH in the 2nd spot there is a chance he will run 3rd in
Missouri. Democrats in southeastern part of the state are still passing out ticket-
splitting information (Wallace-Eagleton-Hearnes). Senate race not going well. Now
appears unlikely Curtis can win it unless RN does will. Conversely, Roos is doing
better than expected but still a long shot to become Governor. Race for Curtis's
old House seat (2nd) very close and we may not be able to hold it. Should pick up a
seat in the 9th if RN carries the district.
SN-8 OKLAHOMA
RN still securely ahead in Oklahoma. Bellmon safely ahead but worried about
Wallace vote and where it will go. Looks as though we'll be able to hold the two
House seats we have and should pick up one in the new 6th District.
SN-4 MONTANA
Babcock in trouble but if present expectation of size of RN's majority is true will be
almost impossible for Babcock to lose. Will hold Battin's seat with no trouble and
should pick up one in western district (1st).
Page 5
SN-6 COLORADO
RN still strong ahead. Doninick running much better than expected. Gap in 3rd
District closed to 8 points. and is still moving strong toward our candidate Bradley.
Will hold Brotzman's seat with no trouble.
SN-3 WYOMING
RN will win bigger than he did in 1960. Wold having no trouble holding Harrison's old
House seat.
SN-4 IDAHO
Democrats have given up on HHH and don't seem to be circulating any material on him
since this hurts Church, in his Senatorial race. Hansen needs to tie himself more
closely with RN and stop talking about Church's record which only gives Church more
publicity. Neither Congressional seat in any danger. Hansen would stand to lose right
now.
SN-4 UTAH
Rn will carry state with vast majority. Senator Bennett will be reelected easily and
neither Congressmen in any trouble. Could pick up the Governorship if could tie
into Nixon/Agnew ticket, but right now we stand to lose it.
LN-4 NEW MEXICO
RN ahead but situation volatile. Oddly enough Wallace is as mucha threat as HHH.
Cargo looks as though he'll be reelected. If RN carries the state, should pick up a
Congressman in the northern district. If RN runs extremely well, we may be able to
help Ed Foreman in the Southern district, but this is a long shot.
SN-5 ARIZONA
RN will carry with no problem. Goldwater will win but per centage won't be astonish-
ingly high. Will hold the two Congressioanl seats but still can't break through in the
Tuscon district.
SN-40 California
Democrats on verge of giving up, Wallace vote dimishing. Cranston ahead of Rafferty in
the Senate race and it may be too late for Rafferty to come back. All Republican
incumbents (Congressional) are safe and might pick up a couple.
SN-6 OREGON
No problem on RN's race. Packwood seems to think he can gain votes from Morse by
turning dovish on Viet Nam. He might luck out and win this way but the easier thing
for him to do would have been to pick up the disaffected Democrats who had voted for
Duncan in the primary. Packwood still having trouble getting support from the lumber
interests and has failed so far to tie himself in effect with RN. Will hold the 2
Congressional seats we have, the Democrats will hold the remaining two.
SN-9 WASHINGTON
RN strongly ahead at this point with the Democrats in deep disarray and little likelyhood
that they can recover. Poll projections indicate a 100, 000 vote for RN - this is probably
a little large but our lead will be hard to lose. Senatorial race (Metcalf vs Magnesson)
has even got a little life to it now - nothing serious, but Metcalf will get a little over
40% of it anyway. Will keep the two House seats we now have and prospects look
better and better in the 2nd district for a pick-up.
Page 6
SH-3 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
No chance
SN-3 NEVADA
Leading strongly in Reno, little ahead in Las Vegas and this makes it a sure state.
Senate race will be extremely close. We may well be able to pull it off. No chance
in the House race.
SN-3 ALASKA
Safe for RN. Rassmussen going down-hill since last reading,and is managing to make
a sure thing into a tight race. Basic problem is in his own organization which is in a
shambles. Pollocks situation has improved and he should win easily.
LH-4 HAWAII
May be able to take it yet. Republicans encouraged by increase in party registration
from 17% in'64 to 24% this year. (Since the Democrats dominate Hawaii, most people
feel they must register that way although many people don't bote that way. ) Of the
265, 000 voters registered, 80% are on Oahu and since Mayor Blaisdell is running for
the House this year, his candidacy should help the top of the ticket. Blaisdell has a
good chance of winning and this should help the top of the ticket. The Senate race
is absolutely safe for the Democrats, but shouldn't bother us much.
TOTALS:
RN 366
HHH 32
GW 66
U 75
file
polls
NEW YORK
SWITCHES IN VOTING PREFERENCE
OCT 1-18 : TOTAL - 15%
1
NIXON
HUMPHREY
A
0
To
2
To
6
Away from
4
a 2-
4
Away from
2
Net change ± -2
Net change. + - +4 4
/ 2-D
UNDECIDED
2
To
6
Away from
6
Net change+ ±
0
1
*
1
4
2
A
WALLACE
A
To
a
Away from
3
Net change+ ± -2
**Ltos THAN 10
OHIO
SWITCHES IN VOTING PREFERENCE
OCT 1.18 18 : TOTAL: 16%
NIXON
-
HUMPHREY
To
3
To
6
Away from
4
3
3
Away from
1
Net change ± -1
Net change ± ± + +5
3
UNDECIDED
1
B
X
To
6
Away from
6
Net change+
0
3
0
1
2
is
WALLACE
A
To
1
Away from
5
Net change ±
LESS THAN 1%
IEXAS
SWITCHES IN VOTING PREFERENCE
OCT 1-18: 1- - 18 : TOTAL= 3 18%
2
NIXON
HUMPHRE
A
1
To
6
To
6
Away from
3
3
3
Away from
2
Net change +3 ±
/ 1
UNDECIDED
Net change + +4
A
To
3
Away from
8
Net change± -5
1
2
1
T
2
2
As
WALLACE
To
3
Away from
5
Net change ± -2
LE.; THAN 1%
NEW JERSEY
SWITCHES IN VOTING PREFERENCE
Oct 1-18: TOTAL 19%
1
NIXON
HUMPHREY
2
To
8
To
7
Away from
3
R 4 -
- 4 1
Away from
3
Net change ± +5
Net change = +4
1-1 / 4
UNDECIDED
0
-
I
To
/
Away from
9.
Net change ± -8
2
2
1
4
1
1
*
+
A
WALLACE
V
To
3
Away from
4
Net change ± -1
LESS THAN 1%
TENNSYLVANIA
SWITCHES IN VOTING PREFERENCE
OCT 1-18:TOTAL 17%
3
A
NIXON
HUMPHREY
1
To
5
To
7
Away from
5
&
4
3
Away from
3
Net change ±
0
/
2-D
UNDECIDED
Net change I ± + 4
2
A
To
5
Away from
7
Net change+ ± on 2
1
4
6
1
WALLACE
To
0
Away from
2
Net change ¹ ± -2
LESS
MICH
MICHIGAN
SWITCHES IN VOTING PREFERENCE
OCT 1-18: TOTAL= = 20%
3
NIXON
HUMPHREY
4
1
To
6
To
9
Away from
in
9
4
4
Away from
2
\
Net change+ ± +1
UNDECIDED
Net change + +7
- 1
1-
4
is
To
2
Away from 10
Net change+ -8
2
1
1
0
2
A
WALLACE
A
To
3
Away from
3
Net change ±
0
LESS HAN 1%
MR.HALDEMAN
*
REPORT OF INSTANT RESEARCH: LAST INTERVIEW = 27 October 1968
Sample Size: 2,667
file
A preliminary analysis of the results of this questionnaire
was made on 18 October 1968 with 613 responses. In general, there
is little change (2-3 percentage points) in the substantive conclu-
sions when analysis of the larger sample is made. For this reason,
a copy of these conclusions is appended The two exceptions are:
1) Humphrey's favorability score with voters has been reversed
and the balance is now slightly in his favor.
2) A slightly larger number of voters think Nixon is now refusing
to debate with Humphrey. However, there is virtually no change
in the impact of this refusal on favorability toward Nixon.
Because of the larger sample size, it is possible to break out the
trial heats by state. Sample size varied from 289-311 per state, and
consequently the results should be treated with caution. Since this is
a telephone survey the limitations of this method should be remembered.
Sampling Error = ± 6%
Nixon Humphrey Wallace Undecided
California
48
36
10
6
Illinois
42
36
10
12
Michigan
41
31
10
18
Missouri
42
34
13
11
Ohio
43
32
10
15
Pennsylvania
43
36
12
9
New Jersey
42
35
10
13
New York
41
41
4
14
Wisconsin
43
32
11
14
9-State Total
43
36
7
14
David R. Derge
* Approximately 1/4 of the interviews were taken 14-16 October, and
3/4 were taken 21-27 October.
SUMMARY OF INSTANT RESEARCH
October 14 - 16 and October 21 - 27
Background
2667 interviews were completed during October 14 - 16 and October
21 - 27 in the 9 northern battleground states (California, Missouri,
Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, New York and New Jersey).
Sampling error is + 3%.
1. Effects of Developments in Peace Negotiations
If an important breakthrough in the Paris peace negotiations resulted
in an agreement to end the war in Vietnam, there would be a slight
deterioration in the Nixon-Agnew vote, as shown in the following table:
Trial Heat (if substantial
Trial Heat
breakthrough in Paris
negotiations)
+
Nixon-Agnew
43
41
-2
Humphrey-Muskie
36
35
-1
Wallace-Lemay
7
8
+1
Undecided
14
16
+2
The question was restated to assume "a complete settlement of the war
in Vietnam on terms favorable to the U.S." The results are as follows:
Trial Heat
(complete
+
Trial Heat
settlement)
Nixon-Agnew
43
41
-2
Humphrey-Muskie
36
36
O
Wallace-Lemay
7
8
+1
Undecided
14
15
+1
A third approach to this problem involved asking whether substantial
progress in the Paris peace negotiations would make the voter more
favorable or less favorable toward Humphrey or would make no difference.
The results are:
More favorable toward Humphrey
19%
Less favorable toward Humphrey
2%
Would make no difference
74%
No opinion
5%
-2-
2. Favorability Toward Candidates
Nixon continues to lead the candidates in increasing favorability, with
Humphrey slightly behind. Wallace's favorability has dropped since
the last measurement.
3. Importance of TV Debates
There is virtually no change in the importance of TV debates to the
voter in making up his mind in the election. 43% thought TV debates
would be important, and 55% thought they would be not too important
or very unimportant. 3/4 of the voters would watch such debates if
they took place.
Some shift has developed about belief as to who would do the better
job in such debates, as shownin the following table:
October 27
September 18
Nixon would do better job:
29%
36%
Humphrey would do better job:
32%
24%
No difference:
11%
16%
No opinion:
28%
24%
13% believe Nixon is willing to debate Humphrey, and 69% think he
is refusing to debate him.
Perhaps the most significant finding is that there has been virtually
no change in the effect on favorability towards Nixon which refusal
to debate would produce. In the case of 71% of the voters, there
would be no change or they would be more favorable if Nixon refused
the debates, and 21% would be less favorable.
4. The Views of Nixon on Social Security and Welfare Programs
The voters see the differences between a Nixon administration and the
Johnson Administration on these issues. 27% believe Nixon's policies
would be quite a bit different, and 37% a little bit different. Voters
also see differences between Nixon and Humphrey on these policies, with
26% seeing a great deal of difference, and 33% some difference.
There is almost even division among voters about whether Nixon would
broaden and expand or limit and cut down these programs:
Broaden and expand:
22%
Keep same as they are:
37%
Limit and cut down:
24%
The voters are about evenly divided as to whether Nixon or Humphrey
would help get the most benefits for the money in programs like
Social Security.
-3-
When asked how good a job Nixon would do in handling programs like
Social Security and welfare, results are as follows:
An outstanding job:
9%
A good job:
42%
A fair job:
28%
A poor job:
8%
33% think Nixon has clearly stated his positions on Social Security,
welfare and similar programs, while 46% think he has not clearly
stated his positions.
5.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
There has been some shift in opinions on signing this treaty. 45%
now think the U.S. should sign, and 35% think that the U.S. should
not sign.
David R. Derge
799-A
(No.4)
STATE:
RESPONDENT'S PHONE NUMBER:
INTERVIEWER:
DATE:
LENGTH OF INTERVIEW:
MINUTES
2667 INTERVIEWS
LAST INTERVIEWS 270ct.
OPINION SURVEY
I'm
and I'm working on a political survey being made for
Opinion Research Corporation in Princeton, New Jersey. This will only take a few minutes,
and I would very much like to have your views.
1. As you know, in November of this year there
1 VERY SURE
will be an election for President of the
2 FAIRLY SURE
United States. How sure are you that you
3
PROBABLY WON'T VOTE
will be voting -- very sure, fairly sure, or
4
DON'T KNOW
probably won't you vote?
DISCONTINUE INTERVIEW
2. If the Presidential election were being held
391
NIXON/AGNEW
RMN
today, which candidates would you vote for --
2 HUMPHREY/MUSNIE
the Republican candidates Nixon and Agnew,
3 WALLACE/LEMA
the Democratic candidates Humphrey and Muskie,
21
4 UNDECIDED
or the Third Party candidates Wallace and
LeMay?
(IF "UNDECIDED" ON Q. 2, ASK) :
3. As of today, do you lean more toward
NIXON/AGNEW
Nixon/Agnew, Humphrey/Muskie or Wallace/
2 HUMPHREY/MUSKIA
LeMay?
3 WALLACE/LEMAY
4
UNDECIDED
4.
Suppose that, a week or SO before Election
1
NIXON/AGNEW
Day, there was an important breakthrough in
2
HUMPHREY/MUSKIE
the Paris peace negotiations, in which
3
WALLACE/LEMAY
agreement was reached for an end to the war
164
UNDECIDED
in Vietnam. If this happened, which candidates
would you vote for on Election Day, Nixon/Agnew,
Humphrey/Muskie, or Wallace/LeMay?
5. Suppose that, before Election Day the Johnson
41,
NIXON/AGNEW
Administration achieved a complete settlement
362
HUMPHREY/MUSKIE
of the war in Vietnam on terms favorable to
WALLACE/LEMAY
the United States. If this happened, which
154
UNDECIDED
candidates would you vote for on Election Day,
Nixon/Agnew, Humphrey/Muskie, or Wallace/LeMay?
--2
6.
Within the past few weeks, has your opinion
251
MORE FAVORABLE
of Richard Nixon become more favorable or
182
LESS FAVORABLE
less favorable than it was before?
533
SAME AS BEFORE
4
4 NO OPINION
7.
Within the past few weeks, has your opinion
261
MORE FAVORABLE
of Hubert Humphrey become more favorable or
222
LESS FAVORABLE
less favorable than it was before?
463
SAME AS BEFORE
4
NO OPINION
8.
Within the past few weeks, has your opinion
141
MORE FAVORABLE
of George Wallace become more favorable or
262
LESS FAVORABLE
less favorable than it was before?
3
SAME AS BEFORE
27
4
NO OPINION
9. In making up your mind how to vote for President, 281
VERY IMPORTANT
how important is it to you to have TV debates
152
FAIRLY IMPORTANT
between Humphrey and Nixon -- very important,
303
NOT TOO IMPORTANT
fairly important, not too important, or very
254
VERY UNIMPORTANT
unimportant?
25
WALLACE SHOULD BE INCLUDED
16 NO OPINION
10. If Nixon and Humphrey were to have TV debates,
511
VERY SURE
how sure are you that you would watch -- very
242
FAIRLY SURE
sure, fairly sure, not too sure, or wouldn't you
123
NOT TOO SURE
watch at all?
124
WOULDN'T WATCH
5 DON'T KNOW
11. If Nixon and Humphrey were to have TV debates,
291
NIXON
who do you think would do the better job --
322
HUMPHREY
Nixon or Humphrey?
3
NO DIFFERENCE
28
NO OPINION
12. As of right now, do you think Nixon is
1
WILLING TO DEBATE
willing to debate Humphrey on TV, or is he
692
REFUSING TO DEBATE
refusing to debate on TV?
183
NO OPINION
13. If Nixon refused to debate with Humphrey,
1 MORE FAVORABLE
would this make you more favorable toward
12
LESS FAVORABLE
Nixon, less favorable, or wouldn't it make
B
NO DIFFERENCE
any difference to you?
NO OPINION
14. If Richard Nixon were elected President, do
221
VERY MUCH LIKE
you think his policies and programs in the
2
LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT
areas of social security and welfare would
273
QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT
be very much like the programs of the present
NO OPINION
administration, a little bit different, or
quite a bit different?
--3
15. In your opinion, how much difference is
261
A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFERENCE
there between Richard Nixon and Hubert
2
SOME DIFFERENCE
Humphrey in their policies regarding
3
NOT VERY MUCH DIFFERENCE
social security and welfare -- a great
4
NO OPINION
deal of difference, some difference, or
not very much difference?
16. If Richard Nixon were elected President, do
22
BROADEN AND EXPAND
you think he would work to improve and expand
37
2
KEEP SAME AS THEY ARE
programs like social security, keep such
3
LIMIT AND CUT DOWN
programs about the same as they are now, or
4
NO OPINION
limit and cut down such programs?
17. In your opinion, which candidate would help
331
NIXON
us get the most benefits for our money in
2 HUMPHREY
programs like social security -- Nixon,
3 WALLACE
Humphrey, or Wallace?
4
NO DIFFERENCE
5 NO OPINION
18. If Richard Nixon were elected President, how
91
AN OUTSTANDING JOB
good a job do you think he would do of
422
A GOOD JOB
handling programs like social security and
283
ONLY A FAIR JOB
and welfare: an outstanding job, a good job,
4
A POOR JOB
only a fair job, or a poor job?
5
NO OPINION
19. In your opinion, has Nixon clearly stated his
CLEARLY STATED POSITION
position on social security, welfare, and
462
HAS NOT CLEARLY STATED
similar programs, or not?
3
NO OPINION
20. Is there anything abcut Nixon's position on these issues that you would like more
information on? (If "YES," ask: What would you like to hear Nixon talk about?
RECORD BELOW)
221
YES, WOULD LIKE
INFORMATION
772
NO, WOULDN'T
--4
21. As you may know, the United States and Russia
45 U.S. SHOULD SIGN
5
are discussing a treaty to control the spread
352 U.S. SHOULD NOT SIGN 35
of nuclear weapons. Do you think it would be
203 NO OPINION
20
a good thing for the United States to sign
such a treaty with Russia at this time, or not?
22. Suppose that substantial progress is made in
19 MORE FAVORABLE
the Paris peace negotiations over the next few
22
LESS FAVORABLE
weeks. Would this make you more favorable
743
NO DIFFERENCE
toward Hubert Humphrey, less favorable, or
54 NO OPINION
wouldn't it make any difference to you?
23. In politics as of today, do you consider
331
DEMOCRAT
yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an
29 2 REPUBLICAN
Independent, or what?
3 INDEPENDENT
24 OTHER
2
(Specify)
5 UNDECIDED 3
(IF "INDEPENDENT" ON 2. 23, ASK):
24. To which party -- Republican or
/21 REPUBLICAN
Democrat -- do you lean?
102 DEMOCRAT
10
3 NEITHER
25. What is your age, please?
26.
Sex:
1 MAN
2 WOMAN
1 21 - 25 YEARS
2 26 - 29 YEARS
3 30 - 39 YEARS
4 40 - 49 YEARS
5 50 - 59 YEARS
6 60 - 64 YEARS
7 65 YEARS AND OVER
THANK YOU VERY MUCH!
TO:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
PETER FLANIGAN
NOVEMBER 1, 1968
A. THE FOLLOWING IS RESULT OF ROLLING WAVE RESEARCH FROM 577
TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS BETWEEN OCTOBER 29-31 IN 8 NORTHERN STATES.
1. TRIAL HEAT
RN
43%
HHH
37%
GW
7%
UND. 13%
2. WHO DO YOU THINK WILL WIN?
RN 52%
HHH 25%
GW
2%
UND. 22%
3. SUPPOSE A FEW DAYS BEFORE ELECTION A BOMBING HALT IS ANNOUNCED IN
EXCHANGE FOR. A PULL BACK OF NORTH VIETNAMESE TROOPS TO THE
DEMILITARIZED ZONE
FAVORED
66%
OPPOSED
16%
NO OPINION 16%
4. IF SUCH A BOMBING HALT WERE ANNOUNCED WOULD IT REPRESENT A GENUINE
MOVE TOWARD PEACE OR A LAST MINUTE ATTEMPT TO HELP HUMPHREY?
MOVE TOWARD PEACE
43%
ATTEMPT TO HELP HHH 34%
NO OPINION
23%
5.
IF SUCH A HALT WERE ANNOUNCED, SHOULD RN SUPPORT IT?
SUPPORT
37%
OPPOSE
3%
DON'T SAY ANYTHING 23%
NO OPINION
37%
6. SUPPOSE THAT A FEW DAYS BEFORE ELECTION LBJ ANNOUNCED A VOLUNTARY
BOMBING HALT WITH NO CONCESSIONS OF ANY KIND FROM NORTH VIETNAM.
FAVOR
24%
OPPOSE
56%
NO OPINION 20%
B. LAST NIGHT BACHELDER POLLED 50 RESPONDENTS EACH IN NEW YORK, LOS
ANGELES AND CHICAGO, WITH THE FOLLOWING RESULTS:
1.
THE BOMBING HALT WAS CONSIDERED "WISE" BY 66% AND UNWISE BY 34%
2. ONE HALF THE RESPONDENTS BELIEVE THE BOMBING HALT WAS CALLED IN AN
EFFORT TO EFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION.
3. 88% OF THE RESPONDENTS SAID THE BOMBING HALT WOULD NOT CHANGE THEIR
WHILE 12% SAID THEY DID NOT KNOW WHETHER OR NOT
IT WOULD CHANGE THEIR VOTE.
C. A NEW WAVE GOES INTO THE FIELD THIS MORNING WITH 400 ANSWERS
TONIGHT WHICH I WILL CALL TO YOU. THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS ARE
BEING ASKED.
1. TRIAL HEAT QUESTION.
2. AS YOU MAY KNOW, PRESIDENT JOHNSON HAS ANNOUNCED A VOLUNTARY HALT
OF ALL BOMBING OF NORTH VIETNAM ALONG WITH EXPANDED NEGOTIATIONS IN
PARIS TO INCLUDE BOTH SOUTH VIETNAM AND THE VIETCONG. DO YOU FAVOR
THIS ACTION OR OPPOSE IT?
3. IN YOUR OPINION, DOES THIS BOMBING HALT REPRESENT A GENUINE MOVE
TOWARDS PEACE IN VIETNAM OR A LAST MINUTE ATTEMPT TO HELP HUBERT
HUMPHREY WIN THE ELECTION?
4. IN YOUR OPINION, SHOULD RICHARD NIXON DECLARE HIS SUPPORT OF THE
BOMBING HALT, DECLARE HIS OPPOSITION TO THE BOMBING HALT, OR NOT
SAY ANYTHING ABOUT IT?
5. PRESIDENT JOHNSON HAS SAID THAT THE NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT--THAT
IS THE VIETCONG-- WILL TAKE PART IN THE PARIS PEACE TALKS. DO YOU
FAVOR OR OPPOSE THE VIETCONG TAKING PART?
6. IN YOUR OPINION WILL THE NORTH VIETNAMESE HOLD DOWN THEIR ACTIVITIES
OR TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BOMBING HALT TO PREPARE FOR A NEW OFFENSE?
7. IN THE LONG RUN DO YOU THINK THAT AMERICAN CASUALTIES WILL BE
HIGHER, LOWER, OR REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BECAUSE OF THE BOMBING HALT?
8. OVER-ALL, HOW HELPFUL DO YOU FEEL THE BOMBING HALT AND THE EXPANDED
NEGOTIATIONS IN PARIS WILL BE TOWARD BRINGING ABOUT A FINAL SETTLEME
OF THE VIETNAM WAR?
9. HAS THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE BOMBING HALT CAUSE YOU TO CHANGE YOUR
MIND ABOUT WHO YOU WILL VOTE FOR PRESIDENT OR ARE YOU PLANNING TO
VOTE FOR THE SAME CANDIDATE? (IF THEY SAY THEY HAVE CHANGED THEIR
MINDS, WE THEN SAY, "IN WHAT WAY HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND?"
10. WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO IMPROVE THE CHANCES FOR SUCCESSFUL
PEACE NEGOTIATIONS ONCE THE ELECTION IS OVER--A NIXON VICTORY OR A
HUMPHREY VICTORY?
END