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This file contains:
Report from David Derge re: Wave IV polling of 6 states. Handwritten note indicating re-polled telephone households.16 pages. [Report], n.d.
Note from Peter Flanigan to Higby re: Nixon's trip to St Peter's next week, attached newspaper clipping titled "Nixowins college poll". 2 pages. [Newspaper], n.d.
Note from Peter Flanigan to Higby re: 2 attached college poll results: Prov Journal 10/16/1968 article "Humphrey gains nod over Nixon in poll at URI" and report of Barrington College Polls dated 10/9-10/11/68. 3 pages. [Report], n.d.
Gallup Poll percentage breakdown (Sept. 20-22), with attached handwritten notes correcting typed information, dated Oct 2. 2 pages. [Report], n.d.
Report of comparison of 3 ORC surveys taken July 12-22, Sept 4-15, Sept 27-Oct 4. 2 pages. [Report], n.d.
Report of polls in 8 states. 5 pages. [Report], 10/13/1968
Report of polls taken in 8 states. 3 pages. [Report], 10/17/1968
Report of polls taken indicating number of electoral votes by state. 1 page. [Report], 10/22/1968
Report of polls taken indicating number of electoral votes by state. 1 page. [Report], 10/15/1968
Twx of South Carolina central surveys poll of 500 personal interviews phoned to Flanigan October 16. 1 page. [Memo], 10/16/1968
David Derge report of switches in voting preference between mid-July and early September in 9 northern battelground and 4 southern states. 4 pages. [Report], 9/25/1968
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26126969
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WHSF: Returned, 36-13
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26126969
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title
WHSF: Returned, 36-13
description
This file contains:
Report from David Derge re: Wave IV polling of 6 states. Handwritten note indicating re-polled telephone households.16 pages. [Report], n.d.
Note from Peter Flanigan to Higby re: Nixon's trip to St Peter's next week, attached newspaper clipping titled "Nixowins college poll". 2 pages. [Newspaper], n.d.
Note from Peter Flanigan to Higby re: 2 attached college poll results: Prov Journal 10/16/1968 article "Humphrey gains nod over Nixon in poll at URI" and report of Barrington College Polls dated 10/9-10/11/68. 3 pages. [Report], n.d.
Gallup Poll percentage breakdown (Sept. 20-22), with attached handwritten notes correcting typed information, dated Oct 2. 2 pages. [Report], n.d.
Report of comparison of 3 ORC surveys taken July 12-22, Sept 4-15, Sept 27-Oct 4. 2 pages. [Report], n.d.
Report of polls in 8 states. 5 pages. [Report], 10/13/1968
Report of polls taken in 8 states. 3 pages. [Report], 10/17/1968
Report of polls taken indicating number of electoral votes by state. 1 page. [Report], 10/22/1968
Report of polls taken indicating number of electoral votes by state. 1 page. [Report], 10/15/1968
Twx of South Carolina central surveys poll of 500 personal interviews phoned to Flanigan October 16. 1 page. [Memo], 10/16/1968
David Derge report of switches in voting preference between mid-July and early September in 9 northern battelground and 4 southern states. 4 pages. [Report], 9/25/1968
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Returned White House Special Files
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1
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yes
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no
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26126969
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nara-archive
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1
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03d00cc99d131198
ocrText
Richard Nixon Presidential Library
White House Special Files Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
Document Type
Document Description
36
13
n.d.
Report
Report from David Derge re: Wave IV
polling of 6 states. Handwritten note
indicating re-polled telephone households. 16
pages.
36
13
n.d.
Newspaper
Note from Peter Flanigan to Higby re:
Nixon's trip to St Peter's next week, attached
newspaper clipping titled "Nixowins college
poll". 2 pages.
36
13
n.d.
Report
Note from Peter Flanigan to Higby re: 2
attached college poll results: Prov Journal
10/16/1968 article "Humphrey gains nod
over Nixon in poll at URI" and report of
Barrington College Polls dated 10/9-
10/11/68. 3 pages.
36
13
n.d.
Report
Gallup Poll percentage breakdown (Sept. 20-
22), with attached handwritten notes
correcting typed information, dated Oct 2.2
pages.
36
13
n.d.
Report
Report of comparison of 3 ORC surveys
taken July 12-22, Sept 4-15, Sept 27-Oct 4.
2 pages.
36
13
10/13/1968
Report
Report of polls in 8 states. 5 pages.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Page 1 of 2
Box
Number
Folder Number
Document Date
Document Type
Document Description
36
13
10/17/1968
Report
Report of polls taken in 8 states. 3 pages.
36
13
10/22/1968
Report
Report of polls taken indicating number of
electoral votes by state. 1 page.
36
13
10/15/1968
Report
Report of polls taken indicating number of
electoral votes by state. 1 page.
36
13
10/16/1968
Memo
Twx of South Carolina central surveys poll
of 500 personal interviews phoned to
Flanigan October 16. 1 page.
36
13
09/25/1968
Report
David Derge report of switches in voting
preference between mid-July and early
September in 9 northern battelground and 4
southern states. 4 pages.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Page 2 of 2
Preliminary Analysis of Mid-October Wave IV
Michigan
in fuld Oct 18.Oct 22
New Jersey
Only repolled telephone
New York
home holds
Ohio
Because then is the IV
Wave, the of refunds
Pennsylvania
increased In N.Y. we lost
Texas
a du poper tronately higher mumber
of black respondents.
Switching Patterns for Selected States
Effects of Low Wallace Voter Turnout
October 18 Electoral Vote Projection
David R. Derge
SIX KEY STATES
Per Cent Change
Deference
Wave to Wave
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Undecided
Nixon Humphrey Wallace
Michigan
July
37%
41
-4
13
44%
ora
9
Sept.
31
+13
17
8
+7
-10
+4
Oct. 4
47%
34
+13 13
15
4
+3
+3
-2
Oct. 22
46%
39
+ 7
13
2
-1
+5
-2
Chio
July
33%
45
-12
14
8
Sept.
38%
38
0
16
8
+5
-7
+2
Oct. 4
37%
36
+1
19
8
-1
-2
+3
Oct. 22
37%
41
- 4
17
5
--
+5
-2
New Jersey
July
39%
41
- 2
8
12
Sept.
43%
34
a
10
13
+4
-7
+2
Oct. 4
42%
36
16
13
9.
-1
+2
+3
Oct. 22
48%
37
+11
10
5
+6
+1
-3
New York
Mid-August
47%
38
9
7
8
Sept.
47%
36
+ 11
7
10
-2
--
Oct. 4
45%
39
+ 6
5
11
-2
+3
-2
Oct. 22
50%
37
T 13
6
7
+5
-2
+1
Pennsylvania
July
40%
42
:
<
8
10
Sept.
46%
32 14
12
10
+6
-10
+4
Oct. 4
47%
36 +11
10
7
+1
+4
-2
Oct. 22
49%
40
a
8
3
+2
+4
-2
Texas
July
27%
44 17
23
6
Sept.
30%
40 10
24
6
+3
-4
+1
Oct. 4
32%
38 6
24
6
+2
-2
--
Oct. 22
38%
38
0
21
3
+6
--
-3
"Suppose that, before election day, the North Vietnamese
pulled back some of their troops and the United States
stopped the bombing of North Vietnam. If this happened,
who would you vote for on election day -- Mixon, Humphrey,
or Wallace?"
Undecided,
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Answer
Michigan
Trial Heat
46%
39
13
2
North Vietnam pullback 44%
39
11
6
New Jersey
Trial Heat
48%
37
10
O
North Vietnam pullback 48%
38
8
6
New York
Trial Heat
50%
37
6
7
North Vietnam pullback
46%
40
5
9
Ohio
Trial Heat
37%
41
17
5
North Vietnam pullback 38%
42
13
7
Pennsylvania
Trial Heat
49%
40
8
3
North Vietnam pullback 46%
39
7
8
Texas
Trial Heat
38%
38
21
3
North Vietnam pullback 36%
35
20
9
"Suppose that, before election day, there is a cease-
fire in Vietnam under international supervision. If
this happened, who would you vote for on election day --
Nixon, Humphrey, or Wallace?"
Undecided,
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Answer
Michigan
Trial Heat
46%
39
13
2
Cease fire
43%
41
11
5
New Jersey
Trial Heat
48%
37
10
O
Cease fire
48%
37
8
7
New York
Trial Heat
50%
37
6
7
Cease fire
46%
41
4
9
Ohio
Trial Heat
37%
41
17
5
Cease fire
35%
43
13
9
Pennsylvania
Trial Heat
4.9%
40
8
3
Cease fire
46%
38
7
9
Texas
Trial Heat
38%
38
21
3
Cease fire
38%
37
19
6
'Suppose that, before election day, there is sub-
stantial progress in the Paris peace negotiations
on the Vietnam War. If this happened before elec-
tion day, who would you vote for -- Nixon, Humphrey,
or Wallace?"
Undecided,
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Answer
Michigan
Trial Heat
46%
39
13
2
Substantial progress
43%
40
11
6
New Jersey
Trial Heat
48%
37
10
O
Substantial progress
47%
37
8
8
New York
Trial Heat
50%
37
6
7
Substantial progress
46%
39
6
9
Ohio
Trial Heat
37%
41
17
5
Substantial progress
36%
44
13
7
Pennsylvania
Trial Heat
49%
40
8
3
Substantial progress
46%
38
7
9
Texas
Trial Heat
38%
38
21
3
Substantial progress
36%
36
20
8
"If George Wallace were not in the Presidential race,
who would you vote for -- Nixon or Humphrey?" (If
respondent says "undecided" ask: As of this time,
do you lean more toward Nixon or more toward Humphrey?)
ASK ONLY of WALLACE VOTERS.
Undecided,
Nixon
Humphrey
No Answer
Michigan
59%
24
17
New Jersey
44%
19
37
New York
60%
22
18
Ohio
46%
17
37
Pennsylvania
38%
28
34
Texas
57%
22
21
"Hubert Humphrey says that Nixon has not stated his
position on the important issues in the election.
Do you agree with Humphrey, or do you feel that Nixon
has made his views clear on the important election
issues?"
Nixon Not
Nixon
No
Clear
Clear
Opinion
Michigan
40%
49
11
New Jersey
45%
43
12
New York
40%
50
10
Ohio
42%
43
15
Pennsylvania
41%
45
14
Texas
38%
47
15
"How interested are you in the outcome of the Presi-
dential election -- very interested, moderately
interested, or not too interested?"
Very
Moderately
Not Too
No
Interested
Interested
Interested
Answer
Michigan
74%
19
.7
O
New Jersey
67%
25
8
O
New York
66%
26
8
O
Ohio
77%
16
7
O
Pennsylvania
71%
23
6
O
Texas
73%
20
7
O
"Within the last two weeks, has there been any change
in your thinking as to who you would vote for in the
Presidential election?'
Yes, Have
No, Have
No.
Changed
Not
Answer
Michigan
16%
84
0
New Jersey
13%
86
1
New York
13%
87
0
Ohio
9%
91
O
Pennsylvania
11%
89
0
Texas
8%
91
1
"Who had you been planning to vote for, before you
changed your mind?"
Nixon/
Humphrey/
Wallace/
Undecided,
Agnew
Muskie
LeMay
No Answer
Michigan
35%
15
28
22
New Jersey
23%
21
21
35
New York
20%
36
13
31
Ohio
29%
15
29
27
Pennsylvania
36%
21
36
7
Texas
18%
10
44
28
"Have you definitely made up your mind which candidate
you prefer for President, or is there a possibility that
you may change your mind during the campaign?"
Mind
May
No
Made Up
Change Mind
Opinion
Michigan
73%
25
2
New Jersey
74%
24
2
New York
74%
24
2
Ohio
72%
24
4
Pennsylvania
78%
19
3
Texas
76%
23
1
"Regardless of your choice for President, which candi-
date do you think will win the election -- Nixon,
Humphrey, or Wallace?'
No
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Opinion
Michigan
62%
20
2
16
New Jersey
67%
15
3
15
New York
66%
19
1
14
Ohio
56%
24
5
15
Pennsylvania
55%
27
1
17
Texas
54%
21
9
16
3
"Does Richard Nixon's decision not to debate Hubert
Humphrey make you more likely or less likely to vote
for Nixon for President?"
More
Less
No
Don't Know,
Likely
Likely
Difference
No Answer
Michigan
12%
25
60
3
New Jersey
10%
28
58
4
New York
11%
30
57
2
Ohio
10%
26
62
2
Pennsylvania
11%
28
58
3
Texas
15%
22
60
3
"Suppose General LeMay states that we should increase
the pace of the war in Vietnam until we win a military
victory. Would this make you more likely or less
likely to vote for Wallace for President? " " ASKED ONLY
of WALLACE VOTERS AND "UNDECIDED"
More
Less
No
Don't Know,
Likely
Likely
Difference
No Answer
Michigan
42%
9
30
19
New Jersey
33%
11
23
33
New York
18%
10
31
41
Ohio
41%
17
14
28
Pennsylvania
48%
11
15
26
Texas
57%
7
16
20
VOTE PROJECTION FOR SELECTED STATES
Assuming that (a) early October to mid-October switching patterns continue
during the final weeks of the campaign and (b) undecided voters actually
go to the polls and divide among the candidates in the same proportion as
they did during early October-mid-October, the popular votes will be as
follows: Sampling error of + 4% should be taken into account.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Undecided
0
Michigan
Mid-October
46%
39
13
2
Projection
45%
44
11
--
New Jersey
Mid-October
48%
37
10
5
Projection
52%
39
9
--
New York
Mid-October
50%
37
6
7
Projection
50%
44
6
--
Ohio
Mid-October
37%
41
17
5
Projection
39%
46
15
Pennsylvania
Mid-October
49%
40
8
3
Projection
49%
44
7
Texas
Mid-October
38%
38
21
3
Projection
40%
40
20
EFFECT OF LOW WALLACE VOTER TURNOUT
Wallace is now leading, or a major threat, in certain border and Southern
states. This analysis attempts to project the vote by state under the
following assumptions: 1) Undecided voters will divide in proportion to
3-way trial heat vote and 2) 20% of the Wallace vote will not appear
at the polls because of organizational deficiencies or other reasons,
and 3) the present Nixon and Humphrey voters remain the same.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Arkansas
Undecided
Rockefeller Poll October 15
29%
20
39
12
Projection
39%
26
35
--
Florida
ORC Wave III, October 1
34%
26
36
4
Projection
39%
30
31
--
Kentucky
ORC Phone, October 2-6
33%
24
25
18
Projection
43%
32
25
--
North Carolina
ORC Wave III, October 1
24%
29
41
6
Projection
30%
36
34
--
ORC Phone, September 20-23
30%
22
33
Projection
15
40%
29
31
--
South Carolina
Central Surveys, October 7-12
30%
22
33
15
Projection
43%
28
29
--
ORC Phone
37%
18
27
18
Projection
50%
24
26
--
Tennessee
ORC Phone, September 25
31%
16
39
14
Projection
42%
22
36
:
Virginia
ORC Wave III, October 1
35%
22
35
8
Projection
42%
27
31
1968 ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION
(as of October 18)
NIXON
HUMPHREY
WALLACE
3 Alaska
3 Nevada
3 D. C.
10
Alabama
5 Arizona
4 New Hampshire
14 Massachusetts
12 Georgia
40 California
17 New Jersey
10
Louisiana
6 Colorado
4 New Mexico
7
Mississippi
Fairly Safe
4 Idaho
4 North Dakota
26 Illinois
6 Oregon
13 Indiana
4 South Dakota
9 Iowa
4. Utah
7 Kansas
3 Vermont
4 Montana
9 Washington
5 Nebraska
12 Wisconsin
3 Wyoming
(195)
(17)
(39)
8 Connecticut
*12 Missouri
4
Hawaii
6 Arkansas
3 Delaware
43
New York
10 Minnesota
14 Florida
Close
9 Kentucky
*26 Ohio
4
Rhode Island
W
13
North Carolina
4 Maine
8 Oklahoma
7
West Virginia
11 Tennessee
*Toss-up
10
Maryland
29
Pennsylvania
*12 Virginia
21 Michigan
*
8
South Carolina
*25
Texas
(135) + * (71)
(8) + * (17)
(30) + *(26)
RN
TOTAL
up
401
42
95
Method: The allocation of states to the three Presidential candidates is based on an analysis of polling data -- not
on so-called expert opinion or intuitive judgment. There are two main sources of information that have been used:
1. Various trial-heat state polls by Opinion Research Corporation, as well as available data from other organizations.
2. Projections to individual states of the most recent regional trial-heat data. These region-to-state projections
are given substantial weight when the state and regional results have maintained a consistent pattern in Presidential
elections from 1948 to 1964. When the state-to-region pattern of results has been mixed or erratic, less weight is
given to such projections. When both trial-heat polls and regional projections are available, estimates are based on
a judgment as to which is more reliable.
Opinion Research Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey
Peter Flanigan
Nixon Agnew
Deputy Campaign Manager
Campaign Committee
Staff of Richard M. Nixon
450 Park Avenue
New York, N.Y. 10022
mi Higby
(212) 661-6400
harry-
Per your
request
RN of going
to St Petas
next Sat.
Pete
united
about a quarteeem
from the Salvation
on
9VD
Evangeline
residence
where she had been living.
Nixon Wins
C
College Poll
9c
Staff Correspondent
JERSEY CITY - Students of
St. Peter's College who voted
$1
in a poll yesterday favored Re-
publican candidate Richard M.
Nixon as their choice for Presi-
22c
dent.
In a sample ballot, Nixon
e
polled 205 votes as compared
with 156 for former Alabama
33c
Gov. George C. Wallace, and
150 for Vice President Hubert
Humphrey.
57c
There were two votes for Ne-
gro comedian Dick Gregory, and
two students submitted blank
ballots. The poll was sponsored
r 37c
by the college's Republican
Club and Students for Nixon.
ni
In a separate poll of the fa-
1-lb.
boxes
$1
culty, 19 cast their ballots for
Humphrey and six voted for
Nixon.
2-lb.
Boxes
$1
Princetonian
69c
Backs HHH
Specic
Peter Flanigan
Nixon Agnew
Deputy Campaign Manager
Campaign Committee
Staff of Richard M. Nixon
450 Park Avenue
Mr. Higby
New York, N.Y. 10022
(212) 661-6400
harry-
Here are 2 more
college polls, as
requested
Pete
Prov Journal
10/16/07
d
$
Humphrey Gains
;
Nod Over Nixon
In Poll at URI
I
/
A presidential poll conducted
? at the University of Rhode Is-
1
land by the current events com-
mittee last weck gave Vice
I
President Hubert H. Humphrey,
with 35.8 per cent of the 531
I
votes cast, a narrow edge over
Richard M. Nixon, who received
33.4 per. cent.
George C. Wallace, the candi-
date of the American Independ-
:
ent Party, received 6.9 per cent
of the votes cast. The remainder
went to Fred Halstead, Socialist
Party candidate; Charlene
Mitchell of the Communist Par-
ty; Eldridge Cleaver, Peace and
Freedom Party, and Dick Greg-
I
ory of the Independent Party,
all of whom were on the ballot.
Write-in votes were cast for
Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller of
New York, Pat Paulsen, the
comedian, Sen. Eugene J. Me-
Carthy of Minnesota and Sen.
Edward M. Kennedy of Massa-
chusetts.
Barrington College Pulls (taken of entire student body ot 050)
9/24-27/08 Poll
10/4-11/68 Poll
If way was
Candidates
students
Faculty
students
Faculty
ARE Studen ts
-
H of
Returns
# ot
I
Returns # at
ve
Returns
Returns Hot
Returns # st
viters
voters
voters
vitess
voters
50
42 (+ 12 who
63
16
40
244
66
cest late ballots)
U 1xon
307
13
3
24
3
4
is
in
)
HHH
40
2
/
3
0
5
4
20
Mc Carthy
12
12
7
17
3
7
4
5
wallace
25
others
13
0
14
2
0
0
No return
250
?
331
?
116
?
ot ballot
underided
I
*
indicates # ot
eligible voters among those
GEORGE M. VETTER, JR.
who cest Gallots
GALLUP POLL Percentage Breakdown (Sept. 20-22)
NOT FOR RELEASE BEFORE OCTOBER 3, 1968
Two
Tot
5..0
V.
41.1
10.0
mind
15.0
28.1.
32.7
56.7
46.5
33.1
Two
V.S.
45.2
24.2
13.9
Northern Whites
48.3
25.9
16.0
Whites
35.9
16.2
40.8
Nonwhite
6.8
62.7
1.2
2,5
Southern Nonwhite
was
41.0
35.8
25.7
im
44.2
30.1
17.5
47.7
23.1
12.6
Or:hollo
35.7
28.1
15.7
23.1
87.2
7.0
years
36.3
18.0
33,
- years
41.4
27.9
21.
LD years und ever
45.3
20.0
..
Dollars trained
57.6
25.0
:
High School
38.9
27.3
2.
MINEC School
37.0
33.8
in
Linion Members
Notion
Susiness 0 Professional
40.0
2010
Clarics & Sales
48.4
5.3
Manuel Labor
33.1
21.1
31..
Firming
52.5
12.2
20,0
One Million & over
44.6
20.0
11 2
8.1
500 thousand and over
41.6
31.1
765
30 thou.-500 hou.
40.0
31.9
3:55
2,500 to 50,thou.
44.2
27.5
25.4
4.2
Under 2,500
43
21.0
20.4
0.8
Republican
86.8
1.4
7.4
4.3
Democrat
14.5
58.1
7.3
Indupendent
31.3
12.2
Vilan
11.53
$10,000 and CV
50.2
22.5
20,2
7..
7,000 - 10,000
46.0
25.7
$1.8
7.0
5,000 -- 7,000
40.6
31.1
20.5
7.6
3,000 -- 5,000
33.5
30.2
24.8
11.5
Under 3,000
44.7
31.6
17.6
8.9
Sample. Not. state sign.
c
3
ORC says Gallyn that HRH hand -220 or
H
5
are wrong.
"
rs
02
weler- limit
P Hallys never does # fraction
conlect.
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2d
:
Companismo +
TH an SURVEYS
File
tela
(1) July 12-22 4-15 01-00.A
state
N
Chy
H
To
W
5
Un!
75
Califor
(1)
40
43
7
10
(2)
46
+6
36
-6
D
$
: ? of
(3)
47 +1
37 +1
90
7-1
Illusions
(1)
40
43
7
10
3
46 +6
36 -7
9+2
8 = 2
(3)
47 +1
37 41
7 0
7.1
Michigan
(1)
37
41
13
9
(1)
44 +7
31-10
17
+4
8 - 1
(3)
47 +3
34 +3
15-2
4 -4
(1)
31
45
15
9
3
36 +5
38 - 7
17
+2
9 0
5)
39 +3
37 -1
17 0
7-2
Ohi
(1)
31
45
15
9
(2)
36 +5
38 -7
17 +0
9 0
(3)
39 +3
37 - 1
17 0
7 -2
New Jany
(1)
39
41
8
120
(2)
45 +4
34 -7
10 12
13 -1
B
42 -1
36 +2
/3 73
9.4
New York
(1)
47
38
7
8
(2)
47 0
36-2
7 0
10 tv
@
45 -2
39 3943 +3
5 -2
11 +1
a 0
8 -/
6 a
V 0
6
9
0
4
10
7
8
sky
10 +2
35 +3
1- / Co : 0 Eg
36 +3 4 +1
9
7
17
10
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2.
skg H By W Une
11 +2
32 +1
13 I 0
12 ÷ +4
of Y !
11 +1
= 0
18
23
24 +1
33
19
3
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9
-
-10
4 + 4
36 +
36 -7
98 0
36 - -7
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35
% be
29 0
43
33
27 -6
210 -/
44
41 -3
38 - -3
39
42
32
43
0
46 +6
+1-
2
6 47 +1
(1) 45 +4
15
(2) 44 +5
(3) US FI
28
of if
98
37 +7
34 3 -3
the
27
30 +3
32 12
37
35
(1)
(2)
Wise. (1) 41
(3) 45
a 33
(3)
(1)
(:)
(E)
(1)
(6)
3)
(Phone)
State
Pa.
SIME Tom (1)
Saun Fill
STATE TOTAL (1)
VIA
LOK
at
10/13/68
file paces
Total
Calif.
Ill.
Mich.
Mo.
N.J.
Ohio
Pa.
Texas
Nixon
38
42
43
36
39
38
37
38
31
Humphrey
32
32
34
35.5
29
31
31
33
34
Wallace
13
10
11
13.5
16
8
15
12
19
Undecided
14
10
9
13
15
19
14
14
15
None
3
6
3
2
3
4
3
3
1
(one day's sample)
Agree
Disagree
No Opinion
AV
Und
AV
Und
AV
Und
When it comes right down
to it the Democratic Party
is still the party that
does the most for the
people?
50
50
40
25
11
25
Summary:
The undecided could be influenced by an appeal of the Republican
Party to do things for the people. Half either disagree or have
no opinion -- they could be moved.
Agree
Disagree
No Opinion
AV Und
AV Und
AV
Und
Itt has been said that a
Republican administration
in Washington for the next
4 years would be a bad
thing for the country
27
20
58
46
14
34
Comment: The undecided voter could certainly be swayed to the Republicans.
They are not opposed to a change to a Republican administration
even though they think the Democrats are better for the people
- 2 -
Agree
Disagree
No Opinion
AV UNd
AV
Und
AV
UND
(1 day's sample)
ISuch a debate would
have great deal to do
with how I vote for
President
38 45
50 33
12
222
If Nixon refused to
debate I probably would
not vote for him
26 23
47 49
18
28
All 3 candidates
debating together
would accomplish
little or nothing
52 43
37 36
10
222
Since Nixon disagrees
so strongly with
Wallace a debatte
between them would
nott accomplish
anything
50 39
38
38
12
23
Comment: The debate issue, I think, should be held open -- no definitive
statement or action taken now. Opinion is somewhat of a
stand-off.
I feel strongly personally if a decision 1s made not to debate
Nixon should make a televsion appearance stating why.
- 3 -
In answer to question what is happening to Wallace the trend of data
(examining this on different days) shows Wallace is declining in
strength. Example -- last Monday and Tuesday interviewing he had 15 percent.
Thursday and Friday he was down to 12 percent. Of those who made
up their mind in the last week, he went from 19 to 13 percent.
on the question, who do you think will win, Wallace went from 6 to
4 percent.
He has either peaked or is declining -- will have to wait and see,
- 4 -
Comment:
It is clear from the data I have that the undecideds can
be drawn to Nixon through talking about domestic and
other problems and the future. I have the data to support this.
(whole week's survey)
Nixon
Humphrey
Labor union families
32
36
Protestants
44
29
Catholics
35
34
Jewish
28
55
Farm families
45
23
(by using this random
selection of phone
numbers 7.9% of our
sample live on farms
Negro
10
74
Male
39
31
Female
40
30
Summary P
1. Wallace is not increasing -- holding steady of declining.
2. Debate issue should be held open -- feel strongly personally
1f decision is made not to debate RN should make a TV
appearance stating why.
3. The undecided voter "could be had" by appeals mentioned
before -- domestic issues and the future.
- 5 -
Question for RHF:
Do you want more intensive study made of cities,
such as Detroit and other places concerning the
Wallace vote -- we can supplement the telephone
interview and build up the sample there.
Question
What is the next problem I should work On?
pollfile
October 17, 1968 (12th through the 17th)
Total
Cal.
Ill.
Mich.
Mo.
N.J.
Ohio
Pa.
Texas
Nixon
39
41
40
36
41
39
38
38
33
Humphrey
32
32
32
33
29
34
31
31
34
Wallace
13
9
12
14
13
11
14
12
21
Undecided
13
11
14
14
14
13
14
7
11
None
3
7
2
3
2
4
3
2
1
Comment :
This is the first day that I have seen the leaners in all states
excepting Texas leaning toward Nixon. (These are small
figures.
The significant thing is they are leaning. )
In Texas it is leaning Nixon 4.1/ leaning Humphrey 4.8
Among voters who havedefinitely made up their minds about a candidate it is:
Nixon
50%
Humphrey
36%
Wallace
14%
Among voters who say they definitely will vote (about 90 percent of the people)
Nixon
37%
Humphrey
27%
Wallace
12%
Undecided
24%
This question was asked only of respondents who said theywould vote for
Wallace or lean to Wallace.
Well, supposing Wallace were not in therace for the presidency. Would you
vote for Humphrey or Nixon? (2 days' sampling)
Humphrey
25%
Nixon
48%
Undecided
27%
Questions asked of everyone:
Total
Undecided
The 3 big issues in this presidential campaign
Nixon
47
27
seem to have been the Vietnam war, crime and
civil rights. Now as between just Nixon and
HHH
32
26
Humphrey which one do you think would do the
best job in handling these issues in January?
Don't
know
21
47
There will be a lot of other problems that
the next President will have to face in the
next 4 years. Some of these will be our
Nixon
48
32
relations with countries all over the
world -- others will be all sorts of problems
HHH
37
32
inside the United States. Now, putting
aside crime and civil rights and thinking
Don't
about other problems inside the United
know
15
36
States which man, Nixon or Humphrey, do
you think would do the best job in handling
these problems?
Total
Undecided
Now let's talk about the problems of
handling foreign affairs apart from
Nixon
49
33
Vietnam and thinking only of Nixon
and Humphrey which one of these two
HHH
36
29
men do you think would do the best
job in handling them?
Don't
Know
15
37
(In pairing Humphrey/Wallace, Wallace/Nixon -- both Nixon and Humphrey
beat Wallace on these, but Nixon beats Humphrey more)
Indicator Question:
(you cannot rely on the exact figures)
Have you heard or read anything new or interesting that Nixon has said or
done in the presidential campaign during the last week or two?
Yes
16 percent
Yes (among undecided)
12 percent
When the same question asked about Humphrey
Yes
20 percent
Yes (among undecided)
15 percent
When the same question asked about Wallace
Yes
19%
Yes (among undecided)
17 percent
10/21
PMF
Elect.
ORC
Other Polls
State
Votes
N H W
Date
N H W
Date
N
H
R
Alabama
10
10
Alaska
3
51
16
33 State Mid Sept
3
Arizona
5
(due Oct, 15)
44
20
18 Pulliam Pr. Oct 1
5
Arkansas
6
29
20
39 Rock. early Oct
6
California
40
47
37
a
9/20-10/4
45
35
7
Muchmore 10/18
40
Colorado
6
50
31
13 M-W Sept. 25
O
Connecticut
8
due Oct.17
35 33 10 MORC 10/15
8
Delaware
3
34
34
18
Sept. 13-23
Florida
14
34
26
36 9/29-10/4
34 20 28 Cambridge 700 10/16
Georgia
12
12
Hawaii
4
Idaho
4
51
31
18
9/29
for
newsoaters
Illinois
54 57 27 15 am Reserich
22
12
MORC Mid Sept
4
26
48
31
13
9/29-10/4
26
Indiana
13
43 32 18 MORC 10/3
13
Iowa
9
51 30 14 CS Sept.20
a
RepDem
ther
Kansas
7
due Oct 21
45
21
13
M- Sept. 20
7
Kentucky
9
33
2425
10/4
(phone
30
17
20 State Sept 17
9
Louisiana
10
23
15 43 M-W early Oct,
10
Maine
4
47
25
5 MORC Mid-Aug
4
Maryland
10
37
28
14
Sept. 30 (phone)
33
39
16 MORC-Early Oct.
*
Massachusetts
14
31
44
8 Becker Res. (573)
14
Michigan
21
47
34
15
9/29-10/4
(a)
40
39
16 MORC 10.15
-
21
Minnesota
10
(e)
44
542.5
9 Minn, Trib 10/13
10
Mississippi
7
14
24
54 State-EarlySept
!
Missouri
12
39
37
17
9/29-10/4
41
29
20 M-W 9/29-10/4
12
Montana
4
See State Note
4
Nebraska
5
52
19
12 Oreha S.W.T. 0/30 10/3
5
Nevada
3
(due Oct 15)
3
New Hampshire
4
59
28
6John Becker 9/28
Li
New Jersey
17
42
30
13
9/29-10/4
45
32
15 Bucci Oct 7
17
New Mexico
4
See State Note
46
33
-
M-W Jun 5-9
4
110
New York
43
45
39
5
9/29-10/4 (b)
31
28
10 Plesser 9/27-30 only
1/3
North Carolina
13
30
22
33
Sept 20 (phone)
13
North Dakota
4
47
27
8
CS Sent. 23
4
Ohio
26
37
36
19
9/29-10/4
44
39
7
MORC 10/19-20 (300)
26
Oklahoma
8
.*
46 34 28 Bellmon 10/15
3
Oregon
6
(due Oct 2)
44
23
9: Mid Sept.
or
Pennsylvania
29
47
36
10
9/29-10/4
42
33
910/12-13 (ORC chone)
29
Rhode Island
4
South Carolina
8
37
18
27
Sept.29 (phone)
32
20
29
CSI0/7-II 500
int
8
South Dakota
4
49
21
18
State Oct 16
4
Tennessee
11
31
16
39
Sent 23-25 (phone)
11
Texas
25
32
38
24
9/29-10/4
(c)
34
38
21
Quayle 10/1 (d)
25
Utah
4.
53
21
8
M-W Aug. 19-25
4
Vermont
3
56
29
5
Becker Sept 30
3
Virginia
12
35
19
31
Sept.20 (phone)
12
Washington
9
43
29
12
C.S. Oct 1
D
West Virginia
7
See State Note
Wisconsin
12
45
36
11
9/29-10/4
45.9
30.3
127
Late Sept.
12
Wyoming
3
3
D.C.
3
23
58
-6
Sept 17-19
3
N
H
W
TOTAL
385
42
83
(a) 36
31
12
10/12-13 ORC phone
(b) 46
42
8
10/14-19 NY News
* Conflicting Results
(c)
35
29
19
10/2 ORC phone
(d) 40
23
23
(e)
4040
4243
6
6
10/1 2919 M-W on Batchelder (400) phone
file
11
PMF
Elect.
ORC
Other Polls
State
Votes
N H W
Date
N H W
Date
H
W
Alabama
10
10
Alaska
3
51
16
33
State Mid Sept
3
Arizona
5.
(due Oct.
44
20
18
Pulliam Pr. Octl
5
Arkansas
6
29
20
39
Rock. early Oct
6
California
40
47
37
9
9/20-10/4
44
33
7
Field Sept 28-29 40
Colorado
6
50
31
13
M-W Sept.25
o
Connecticut
8
due Oct.17
34
31
8
MORC 9/13-26
8
Delaware
3
34
34
18
Sept. 13-23
Florida
14
34
26
36
9/29-10/4
33
22
37
Quayle Oct.1
14
Georgia
12
due mid Oct.
12
Hawaii
4
Idaho
4
51
31
18
9/29
for
newspapers
57
22
13
MORC Mid Sent
4
Illinois
26
48
31
13
9/29-10/4
54
21
18
F .Alley As. 9/25
26
Indiana
13
43
32
18
MORC 10/3
13
Iowa
9
51
30
14
CS Sept.20
9
Dem
Other
Kansas
7
due Oct 21
46
21
13
M-W Sept.20
7
Kentucky
9
33
2425
10/4 (phone
30
17
20
State Sept 17
9
Louisiana
10
23
15
48
M-W early Oct,
Maine
4
47
25
5
MORC Mid-Aug
4
Maryland
10
37
28
14
Sept. 30 (phone)
33
39
16
MORC-Early Oct.
*
Massachusetts
14
31
444
8
Becker Res. (573)
14
Michigan
21
47
34
15
9/29-10/4
36
31 12 10/12-13(ORCpwe)21
*
Minnesota
10
3c
31
12
phone 10713
44.5
42.5
9Minn.Trib.Oct.13
10
Mississippi
7
14
24
54 State-EarlySept
7
Missouri
12
39
37
17
9/29-10/4
41
29
20 M-W 9/29-10/4
12
Montana
4
See State Note
Nebraska
5
Nevada
3
(due Oct15)
New Hampshire
4
59
28
ojohn Becker 9/28
4
New Jersey
17
42
36
13
9/29-10/4
45
32
15
Bucci Oct 7
17
New Mexico
4
See State Note
46
33
-
M-W Jun 5-9
4
1100)
New York
43
45
39
5
9/29-10/4
31
28
10 Plesser 9/27-30 phone
+3
*
North Carolina
13
30
22
33
Sept 20 (phone)
13
North Dakota
4
47
27
8
CS Sept. 23
I
4
Ohio
26
37
36
19
9/29-10/4
40.3
32.1
131
MORC Sept. 27
*
Oklahoma
8
43
20
21
Spears Sept 28
CO
Oregon
6
(due Oct 2)
44
23
9 Mid Sept.
6
-
Pennsylvania
29
47
36
10
9/29-10/4
42
33
910/12-13 (ORCphone)
29
T
*
Rhode Island
4
V2
35
,
10/11
South Carolina
CO
37
18
27
Sept.29 (phone)
32
20
29
CS10/7-11 500 int
8
South Dakota
4
49
21
18
State Oct.16
4
Tennessee
11
31
16
39
Sept 23-25 (phone)
11
Texas
25
32
38
24
9/29-10/4
37
29
25
M-W Sept.23-29
25
Utah
4.
53
21
8
M-W Aug. 19-26
4
Vermont
3
56
29
5
Becker Sept 30
Virginia
12
35
19
31
Sept.20 (phone)
12
Washington
9
43
29
12
C.S. Oct 1
a
West Virginia
7
See State Note
Wisconsin
12
45
36
11
9/29-10/4
45.9
30.3
127
Late Sept.
12
Wyoming
3
D.C.
3
23
58
6
Sept 17-19
31
TOTAL
341 42 73
* Conflicting Results
**
N
H
W
35 29 19 ORC 10/2 (phone)
48 40 12 Buch 10/12-13
W
HALPEMAN
SOUTH CAROLINA CENTRAL SURVEYS POLL PHONED TO FLANIGAN OCTOBER 16
500 PERSONAL INTERVIEW
90/16/19
END OF JULY
SEPT. 29
OCT. 7-12 (BEFORE DIRECT
MAIL
(ORC)
WHITES NEGROS
NIXON
25
37
32
40
4
HHH
25
18
20
8
61
GW
35
27
29
31
3
UNDECIDED
15
18
19
15
33
ISSUES
N
H
W
LAW AND ORDER
41
11
29
VIETNAM
33
27
17
F OF C IN SCHOOLS 24
21
39
If atall possible
RACIAL PROBLEMS
23
28
39 scratch Illinois +
add S.C. of this
WHO WILL BE ELECTED51
17
19 breaks too much China,
forget S.C. you have to
stay with minne sota.
HARRY DENT PUSHING AGNEW STOP IN CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA. CAN
H
BE DONE IF NICK SCRUBS AGNEW IN MINNESOTA (WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET
ROCKEFELLER INTO MINNESOTA) OR THE 21ST DISTRICT OF ILLINOIS
(WHICH I HAVE ALREADY PROMISED TO THE ILLINOIS PEOPLE) AS A SUB-
STITUTE FOR RN NOT GOING TO DECATUR. WOULD LOVE TO SCRUB THE 21ST
DISTRICT OF ILLINOIS SO THAT AGNEW COULD DO BOTH MINNESOTA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA BUT IT WILL BE VERY BLOODY TO SCRUB THE21ST DISTRICT
OF ILLINOIS. NICK NEEDS DECISION SOONEST ON WHETHER TO COMMIT
AGNEW TTO MINNESOTA AND I SEE NO POINT IN COMMITING AGNEW TO
MINNESOTA IF RN GOING TO DULUTH ON THE 30TH. MINNESOTA HAS 10 ELECTORAL
VOTES; SOUTH CAROLINA HAS 8.
END
WITCHES IN VOTING PREFERENCE BETWEEN MID-JULY AND EARLY SEPTEMBER: Four southern states.
Total switching = 33% of all voters
1%
RMN
4%
HHH
To
: 10%
To
: 5%
Away from: 7%
Away from: 11%
Net change ± +3%
3%
Net change ± -6%
3%
3%
UND,
5%
&
To
: 11%
Away from: 8%
Net change ++3%
ofer
1%
%
3%
2%
3%
3
GW
To
: 7%
Away from: 7%
Net change ±1 0
vi SWITCHERS: 9STATE:
From RMN to
From HHH to
From Undecided to
Wallace
Wallace
Wallace
MEN 54
MEN 56
WOMEN 46
EQUAL DISTRIB.
women 44
SEX
Party Identification
1/2 REP, 1/2 D&I,
77% DEM
1/2 DEM
22% IND.
1/2 IND.
60% UNDER 10000
78% UNDER 10,000
60%UNDER 10000
Income
40% OVER 10,000
31% OVER 10,000
400/JUNION
30
Union Membership
5590 NON-UNION
EGUAL DISTRING
EQUAL DISTRIB,
2/3 OVER 40
2/3 OVER 40
55%
Age
2890415 onno,
1/2-30-50 1/2 30-50
1/2 H.S. INC,
55% 5. INCOMP,
Education
EQUAL DISTRIB,
2/5 H.S. GRAD,
28% H. S. GRAP
47% SUBURBS
48% SUBURBS
60% SUBURBS
Central City, Suburg,
Non-Metropolitan
70% PROTESTANT
50% CATHOLIC
1/3 CATHOLIC
Religion
43% PROTESTANT
1/2 PROTESTANT
U.S - ETHNIC - 60%
U.S.GTANIC- - 54%
US ETHNIC- 43%
Ethnic Background
MODERATE:
MODERATE
MODERATE
Media Consumption
NOT ALIENATED.
NOT ALIENATED.
MORE
Alienation
AWENATED
GOOD.
GOOD
LOWER TURNOUT
Voting Turnout
PROFILE OF SWITCHERS: 4-STATE
From RMN to
From HHH to
From Undecided to
Wallace
Wallace
Wallace
2/3 MALE
2/3 FEMALE
3/5 MALE
SEX
1/2 DEM
80% DEM.
3/5 DEM.
Party Identification
1/3 IND.
1/8 REP.
45 IND.
Income
EQUAL DISTRIB,
88% UNDER 10000
68% UNDER 10000
Union Membership
96% NON-UNION
88% NON-UMON
82% NON-UNION
Age
2/3 OVER 40
2/3 OVER 50
57% OVER 40
2/5 H.S. GRAD
45 H.S. INC.
1/2 H.S. INC,
Education
45 COLLEGE
2/5 H.S. GRAD.
2/5 H.S. GRAD.
1/2 OUTSIDE METRO,ARA
73% OUTSIDE
51% OUTSIDE
Central City, Suburg,
METRO AREA
METRO AREA
Non-Metropolitan
85% PROTESTANT
86% PROTESTANT
96% PROTESTANT
Religion
$3% U.S. ETHNIC
89% U.S. ETHMC
84% U.S. ETHMC
Ethnic Background
HEAVIER
MODERATE
HEAVIER
Media Consumption
NOT ALIENATED
NOT ALIENATED
NOT ALIENATED
Alienation
HEAVY
HEAVY
HEAVY.
Voting Turnout
SWITCHES IN VOTING PREFERENCE BETWEEN mid-July and early September: Nine northern battleground states
Total switching = 32% of all voters
1%
RMN
HHH
: 8%
4%
To
To
: 5%
Away from: 7%
Away from: 14%
Net change ++1%
Net change +-9%
3%
3%
UND.
8%
4%
To
: 14%
4
Away from: 7%
Net change 1+7%
1%
1%
1%
4
2%
%1
%1
GW
To
-: 5% 5
Away from: 3%
Net change +2%
David R. Derge
25 September 1968