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This file contains: To Chapin, Mitchell, Stans, Haldeman, Flanigan, Kleindienst, Garment from Ellsworth Re: Notes on strategy and tactics through November 5. 23 pages [Memo], 6/24/1968 Appendix A to memo dated 6/24/1968. 18 pages [Report], 6/24/1968

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This file contains: To Chapin, Mitchell, Stans, Haldeman, Flanigan, Kleindienst, Garment from Ellsworth Re: Notes on strategy and tactics through November 5. 23 pages [Memo], 6/24/1968 Appendix A to memo dated 6/24/1968. 18 pages [Report], 6/24/1968
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library White House Special Files Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date Document Type Document Description 39 1 06/24/1968 Memo To Chapin, Mitchell, Stans, Haldeman, Flanigan, Kleindienst, Garment from Ellsworth Re: Notes on strategy and tactics through November 5. 23 pages 39 1 06/24/1968 Report Appendix A to memo dated 6/24/1968. 18 pages Tuesday, May 01, 2007 Page 1 of 1 June 24, 1968 Reading MEMORANDUM TO: DC Mitchell Stans Haldeman Flanigan Kleindienst Garment FROM: Ellsworth RE: Notes on Strategy and Tactics through November 5. This is an up-dated revision of my memo of June 9, revised to reflect the substantial changes in public opinion reported in the Gallup Poll of June 10, and a staff reassess- ment of states. SUMMARY: The campaign in 1968 has become a national campaign in a more complete sense than ever before. The old politics of regional geographical campaigns, and the old politics of ideological and class campaigns, have to a substantial extent given way to the new politics of media campaigning (as suggested in the Haldeman memorandum of 1967) with tactics based on demographic analysis. One of the deep running currents in American politics today is the demand for a change in leadership: the opening theme of the Nixon campaign, the Johnson abdication, the Kennedy and McCarthy campaigns (netting some 75% of the vote in recent Democratic primaries), and the Wallace campaign -- all give evidence of this current. One -2- effect of the RFK killing and TV coverage is to heighten the sense that the "ins" have failed to govern effectively and to intensify the pressure for changes in policies and leadership. Assuming that Nixon and Humphrey* are the nominees of the two major parties, Wallace would be the main com- petitor against Nixon for the votes of those who desire substantial change. In addition, Wallace will tap a substantial regional popularity in the South, plus the residual racism of the South, plus whatever white backlash may have been generated in recent years in the rest of the country. Given the nationwide character of the "new politics" campaign that is indicated this year, it remains that the President has to be elected (according to the Constitution) by the electoral college. This means. that local and regional factors must be taken into account, that the demograph of the principal states has to be read and accounted for, and that the Wallace candidacy has a double potential for mischief: in that Wallace may win a substantial number (27 or more) of electoral votes, and in that he might drain off enough "we want a change", anti-Humphrey and white backlash votes in several states to deprive Nixon of electoral votes by throwing those states to Humphrey. * A source close to Secretary Fowler says LBJ will now accept a draft. at the Convention. -3- In thinking about campaign tactics, it is also necessary to keep in mind that we will have 25 candi- dates for Senate seats (including incumbents running for reelection) who appear to have a reasonable chance of winning. All of those votes in the Senate will be important to Nixon as President. The foregoing points: (1) the national quality of the election campaign, (2) the electoral college effect, and (3) the Senate candidates effect -- are analysed in some detail on the following pages, and at the end the campaign efforts -- budget, non-candidate efforts, the Vice Presidential candidate's effort and the Presidential candidate's effort -- are assessed in light of the entire analysis. -4- I. The campaign in 1968 has become a national campaign in a more complete sense than ever before. The old politics of regional geographical campaigns and the old politics of idelogical and class campaigns, have to a substantial extent given way to the new politics of media campaigning with tactics based on demographic analysis. Politicians tend to think in terms of states or geographical regions, and while it is necessary to take account of regions and states later, it is better to start with a look at the national electorate. It may be a truism that the American people have become homogenized, but it is certainly true that television and other national media, together with the great mobility of large numbers of the working class (not to mention the sales, business and professional classes) -- all accelerated and strengthened by mass college education -- have made Presidential pol- tics genuinely national. In fact, Presidential politics today are to a large extent non-partisan. When George Gallup talks about the Republican Party being a third party (43% Democrats, not 30% Independents, and 27% Republicans) he is ^ talking about in Presidential elections. how people vote ^ The fact is, both parties are minority parties in terms of Presidential politics in the United -5- States -- and have been since World War II. In the last 5 Presidential elections, the Democrats have received a majority of the popular vote only once -- in 1964. More- over, when all the votes cast for President in the last 5 elections are added up, the Democrats come out with 49.6%, the Republicans with 49.1% and others with 1.3%. Thus: modern mass media permit -- even require -- a truly national Presidential campaign. On historical form the two major Presidential candidates can expect to have an equal chance at winning, regardless of their party identification, and the politically potent issues appear to be genuinely nationwide. That being the case, what are some of the nation- wide demographic groupings in which the Nixon candidacy may be expected to have strength, and where may problem areas expect to be encountered? How large are these different groups in terms of votes? Answers to these questions are important so that the campaign can be de- signed to emphasize the appeal to and build up the vote turn-out in the strong groups, largely through organiza- tional efforts -- and at the same time design appeals to the problem areas for the purpose of minimizing antagonisms and emphasizing possible positive appeals. No accurate study has been made in this area; one is needed. -6- In a rough and preliminary way, we have developed a highly speculative analysis, based on the June 1968 Gallup Poll and designed to show relative strength and weakness with basic groups of people as used by Gallup. (In instances where figures were not available from the June poll, average figures from other recent polls were used.) I want to emphasize that the following figures are included in this memorandum only to indicate the utility and importance of a professional demographic analy- sis being developed quickly for use in this campaign. The figures that follow on page 7 are so extra- polated, converted and estimated that they cannot be taken as anything other than indicative. -7- NIXON-HUMPHREY RELATIVE STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS NIXON STRENGTH (+) OR WEAKNESS (-) EXPECTED NUMBER OF VIS-A-VIS HUMPHREY CATEGORY 1968 VOTERS AND WALLACE I. Sex Men 36,200,000 even Women 38,100,000 +1,500,000 II. Education level Some college 18,000,000 +1,400,000 Some high school 38,800,000 even Some grade school 17,800,000 -1,800,000 III. Occupation Professional Sc business 15,900,000 even White collar 10,700,000 -3,100,000 Farmers 3,700,000 +1,200,000 Manual 41,700,000 -8,400,000 IV. Religion Protestant 27,200,000 + 600,000 Catholic 18,600,000 -7,100,000 V. Geography East 20,500,000 -2,400,000 Midwest 22,700,000 even South 17,400,000 + 700,000 West 13,400,000 +1,600,000 VI. Income Over $7,000/year 30,800,000 -1,900,000 $5,000-$7,000 21,700,000 -4,300,000 $3,000-$5,000 13,800,000 -2,200,000 Below $3,000 10,800,000 -1,100,000 VII. Size of Community Over 500,000 12,700,000 -2,800,000 50,000-500,000 16,000,000 -3,500,000 2,500-50,000 13,800,000 + 300,000 Under 2,500 10,800,000 +2,500,000 -8- The immediate political uses of such figures are perhaps self-evident. For example, one should emphasize getting out the vote of highly educated residents in com- munities of under 50,000 and farmers. Nixon has great appeal to these groups. For another example, it is inter- esting to note -- in the "Geography" section -- the strengths in the South and West very nearly balance the weakness in the East. This is not to say that one should ignore the East --- only that one should not focus one's campaign on the East at the risk of diminishing the enthusiasm in the Midwest, South and West. Other examples could be given -- the point is, a demographic/political analysis, professionally and accurately done is needed. It will be useful. On a national basis, the Wallace candidacy holds dangers. The Gallup Poll in June 1968 shows the following figures: NIXON 36 HUMPHREY 42 WALLACE 14 UNDECIDED 8 Until we can get more precise research, it is difficult to know what the full effect of the Wallace candi- dacy will be. His percentages are very high in the South and quite low in the rest of the country. The 14% showing -9- in the national polls is an average. According to the May 1968 Gallup Poll, Wallace receives 30% of the vote in the 13 Southern states; 53% in the Deep South (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina); and 7% in the 37 states outside the South. A February 1968 poll in the Atlanta Journal and Constitution showed Wallace with 28%. A Nebraska poll conducted in mid-April showed Wallace with 4%. A 4% vote for Wallace in Nebraska would probably not affect the disposition of Nebraska's electoral votes; a 4% vote for Wallace in Pennsylvania would: it might throw Pennsyl- vania's electoral votes to Humphrey. (In fact, our own poll shows Wallace with 12% in Pennsylvania.) However, a study of Wallace's relative positions in Harris polls over the spring gives some hint that, when Humphrey is a candidate, Wallace support tends to come from Humphrey or from undecideds, rather than from Nixon. A professional study of the Wallace effect in key states outside the South needs to be made. In general: it has been said that, as election day approaches, Wallace's appeal will fade and his percen- tage of the vote will be greatly lower than his percentage in various polls. This is good campaigning but not an inevitable development. The hope might be based on the -10- historical experiences of 1948, when Thurmond and Henry Wallace are supposed to have run less well in the election than they did in the polls, and on the experiences of 1965 when William Buckley ran less well in the New York City mayor election than he had been running in the polls. However, careful research shows that while it did happen to Henry Wallace and Buckley, this did not happen to Thur- mond. Instead, he got a higher percentage of votes than the polls showed he might. A Crossley poll, taken shortly before the election of 1948, showed Thurmond with about 1.6% of the vote. Gallup showed Thurmond getting about 2%. On election day, Thurmond got over 2% of the total national vote, performing better than might have been predicted on the basis of the polls. Thus it can be seen that, although Henry Wallace did get only about half the vote that had been expected for him, Thurmond actually got a little more than what he had been polling, on a national basis. Truman ignored Thurmond on the right, correctly assessing his appeal as intense but limited to a small number of voters. Instead, Truman came out hard for federal medical care and active government generally, berating and ridiculing the "Republicans" for a do-nothing record. Thus -11- he occupied Wallace's ground by promising federal action for the masses and drove Wallace to an untenable Communistic left position. The Nixon campaign should continue to occupy the center as it has done so far, and should undercut Wallace by stressing that Nixon represents a substantial change from present leadership policies while Humphrey does not, both in terms of domestic policies (government and private capital to draw blacks fully into American life, bloc grants for decentralization of power, judicial balance and crime control for law and order) and foreign policies (peace, no more Vietnams, use of economic and diplomatic power with military balance vis-a-vis the USSR to insure stability in the world). Nixon cannot compete with Wallace on regional appeal or racism, but he certainly can on the change of leadership issue. Wallace's great weakness, even in the South, is his lack of experience in Washington and the doubt that he could manage the federal government. Nixon could. -12- II. Given the nationwide character of the "new politics" campaign that is indicated this year, it remains that the President has' to be elected (according to the Constitution) by the electoral college. At the present time I count 13 states solid for Nixon with 73 electoral votes and 16 states leaning toward Nixon with 173 electoral votes, for a total of 29 states solid or leaning toward Nixon with a total of 246 electoral votes -- 6 states (including D. c.) solid for Humphrey with 81 electoral votes and 6 states leaning toward Humphrey with 69 electoral votes, for a total of 12 states solid or leaning toward Humphrey with 150 electoral votes -- 3 states solid for Wallace with 27 electoral votes -- and 7 battleground states with a total of 115 electoral votes. The breakdown is as follows: SOLID FOR NIXON LEANING TOWARD NIXON Arizona 5 Alaska 3 Virginia 12 Idaho 4 Colorado 6 Washington 9 Indiana 13 Delaware 3 Wisconsin 12 Iowa 9 Florida 14 Kansas 7 Hawaii 4 TOTAL 173 Maine 4 Illinois 26 Montana 4 Kentucky 9 Nebraska 5 Nevada 3 New Hampshire 4 Ohio 26 Oklahoma 8 Oregon 6 Utah 4 South Dakota 4 Vermont 3 Tennessee 11 Wyoming 3 Texas 25 TOTAL 73 -13- SOLID FOR HUMPHREY LEANING TOWARD HUMPHREY Dist. of Col. 3 Arkansas 6 Massachusetts 14 Connecticut 8 Minnesota 10 Georgia 12 New York 43 Maryland 10 Rhode Island 4 New Mexico 4 West Virginia 7 Pennsylvania 29 TOTAL 81 TOTAL 69 SOLID FOR WALLACE BATTLEGROUND STATES Alabama 10 California 40 Louisiana 10 Michigan 21 Mississippi 7 Missouri 12 New Jersey 17 TOTAL 27 No. Carolina 13 No. Dakota 4 So. Carolina 8 TOTAL 115 A rough, preliminary demographic analysis of the several states (similar to the rough national demographic analysis explained above) is attached as Appendix A. This should be refined and used for political analysis. The electoral votes of California, or of any two of the following states: North Carolina, New Jersey, Mis- souri, Michigan -- when added to the electoral votes of the solid and leaning toward Nixon states -- provide enough electoral votes to win the Presidency. Clearly, the demo- graphic data for all these states are of great political significance. For example, within the top four battleground -14- states the business and professional class, in which Nixon is even with Humphrey, runs at about the national average or a little above (expressed as a percentage of the total population). Farmers in these states, on the other hand, run substantially below the national average. Manual workers, with whom Nixon is not strong, run at or slightly above the national average. The political implication is clear for these key states: strong get-out-the-Nixon vote efforts should be organized among the business and professional classes; Nixon should campaign to manual workers on themes (such as law and order) that appeal to them and stay away from economic themes that alienate them, and he should avoid talking about farm problems. In the same states (except for California), rela- tively small percentages of the population live in rural areas and as has already been seen by the minuscule percen- tages of people engaged in farming, most of these are probably suburbanites or exurbanites. In any case, Nixon has great strength among people who live in communities of under 2,500 and substantial strength among people who live in communities between 2,500 and 50,000. The opposition has great strength among people who live in communities of over 50,000. What is indicated is a strong get-out-the- vote drive among the suburbs. -15- In general, more effort should go into the battle- ground states than into the Nixon states, and the least effort should go into the Humphrey and Wallace states. III. In thinking about campaign tactics, it is necessary to keep in mind that we will have 25 candidates for Senate seats who appear to have a reasonable chance of winning. They are as follows: STATE SENATE CANDIDATE STATUS ELECTORAL VOTES Oregon Packwood Leaning to RN 6 California Rafferty Battleground 40 Nevada Fike Leaning to RN 3 Idaho Hansen Nixon state 4 Utah Bennett Nixon state 4 Arizona Goldwater Nixon state 5 Colorado Dominick Leaning to RN 6 No. Dakota Young Battleground 4 So. Dakota Gubbrud Leaning to RN 4 Kansas Dole Nixon state 7 Oklahoma Bellmon Nixon state 8 Missouri Curtis Battleground 12 Iowa Stanley, Ray, Johnson Nixon state 9 Wisconsin Leonard Leaning to RN 12 Indiana Ruckelshouse Nixon state 13 Kentucky Cook Leaning to RN 9 Florida Gurney Leaning to RN 14 Ohio Saxbe Leaning to RN 26 Maryland Mathias Leaning to HH= 10 Penn. Schweiker Leaning to HHH 29 New York Javits Leaning to HHH 43 Conn. May or Sibal Leaning to HHH 8 New Hamp. Cotton Nixon state 4 Vermont Aiken Nixon state 3 Alaska Rasmussen Leaning to RN 3 -16- At least for the first few months of a Nixon Presidency, it would be beneficial to the White House to have personally helped in the campaign of every one of these men -- even the old-timers. IV. The various campaign efforts must be assessed and assigned priorities so as to produce the maximum effect, within the limits of the time, money and personnel that will be available for the campaign. (1) Budget Priorities. In the broadest terms, budget priorities should be assigned as follows, from lowest priority to highest: (a) Lowest priority: those states regarded as solid for Humphrey or Wallace. (b) Next priority: those states regarded as solid for I ixon. (c) Highest priority: those states regarded as battlegrounds. As a general rule, the Candidate's effort, being the most important, should be expected to consume the most money. The Vice Presidential candidate's effort may be considered in the same category, but of course would not consume as much money as the Presidential candidate. -18- men: National Committeeman Bud Wilkinson, Senators Baker and Hatfield, Governors Agnew, Volpe and Hickel, and Con- gressmen Brock, Bush, Morse, Rumsfeld and MacGregor. The telephone-personal visit operation used so successfully in Oregon involves the limited but active involvement of thousands of men and women, for the most part within metropolitan areas. Briefly: paid professionals telephone and recruit volunteers to hand-carry packets of campaign material to 5 neighbors. The original successful calls of coure are followed up with direct mail and with a further follow-up telephone call. This has worked well not only in Oregon but in a number of other cities in the West. It can be modified in various ways. The principal advantage of such an operation is that it actively involves tens of thousands of individuals directly in the campaign and thus is very much in line with the new so-called "participatory politics". (3) The Vice Presidential Effort. The Vice Presidential candidate, acting as an alternate Presidential candidate, should design his campaign, his media presentations and his personal appearances so as -19- to appeal, on a national basis, to those elements of the electorate with which the Presidential candidate may not have the greatest strength. For example, if there are age groups or occupation groups or even ethnic groups -- in the national electorate and more particularly the battleground states -- where the demographic analyses show the Vice Presidential candidate to have substantially more potential, his campaign should focus upon those elements in those areas. The Vice Presidential candidate cannot substitute for the Presidential candidate, however, in the Senatorial candidate area. (4) The Presidential Candidate's Effort. Fifty-eight calendar days lie between Labor Day, the traditional start of Presidential campaigns, and election day. Assuming that the Candidate can sustain a high intensity effort 5 days out of every 7, that means 41 days are available for high intensity campaigning. Assuming the Candidate can do with 6 hours' sleep each day, that provides 738 hours. Assuming that no more than one-third of those hours (i.e., 6 hours a day) can be given to public appearances (including backgrounders, conferences with political leaders, time actually spent with staff) -- that leaves 246 hours for public appearances by the Candidate during the general election campaign. -20- In attempting to arrive at a theoretical basis for utilization of the Candidate's time (total 246 hours), it is my feeling that at least 10% should be set aside for personal visits with the leading figures of the national press, radio and TV. The time that has been devoted to this purpose during the last several months has been time well spent. That leaves approximately 225 hours. Although I assume most of the television advertising production will be out of the way by Labor Day, it is quite possible that some issue may come up requiring the production of new advertising material by the Candidate during the cam- paign itself. Ten percent of the Candidate's time should be reserved for this eventuality. That leaves approximately 200 hours. These hours should be apportioned so as to put the greatest effort in those places where the greatest effort is needed and where is has the best chance of paying off. Analysing the political situ, tion in the several states, eliminating those states solid for Humphrey or Wallace, assigning to each Nixon state its own electoral vote, assigning to each Battleground state double its own electoral vote, then adding to each Senate Candidate state that state's elec- toral vote -- and then dividing the 200 public appearance hours among the states on the basis of the relative weights -21- thus assigned to them, the Candidate's public appearance time should be spent in various states approximately as follows: CANDIDATE'S CANDIDATE'S STATES (by region) TIME (hours) STATES (by region) TIME (hours) East Midwest Maine 1 Ohio 15 Vermont 1 Michigan 8 New Hampshire 1 Indiana 5 Massachusetts 0 Wisconsin It Connecticut 5 Illinois 15 Rhode Island 0 Minnesota 0 New York Iowa 3 Pennsylvania 17 Missouri 7 New Jersey No. Dakota 2 West Virginia 0 So. Dakota 2 Maryland 6 Nebraska 1 Delaware 1 Kansas 3 Dist. of Columbia 0 TOTAL 68 TOTAL 39 South West Virginia 5 Montana 1 Kentucky 5 Wyoming 1 No. Carolina 5 Colorado 3 Tennessee 4 New Mexico 1 So. Carolina 3 Idaho 1 Georgia 4 Utah 1 Alabama 0 Arizona 2 Mississippi 0 Washington 3 Arkansas 2 Oregon 3 Oklahoma 3 Nevada 2 Texas 10 California 24 Louisiana 0 Alaska 2 Florida 8 Hawaii 1 TOTAL 48 TOTAL 45 -22- NB: It should be recognized that New York, because of its preeminence in the communications world and because of the nationwide implications of anything that is done or not done in New York, represents a special case. NB: South Carolina also represents a special case. If Senator Thurmond campaigns for the Republican ticket in the manner and to the extent he has indicated, and if he or Harry Dent desires the Candidate in South Carolina, the Candidate must give serious consideration to going. NB: It is essential that the "unity" theme which has been stressed so successfully and so effectively so far in 1968 -- effectively in terms of primary results, effectively in terms of favorable standings in national polls and effectively in terms of reactions of commentators such as Wicker and Broder -- be given tangible, concrete form in the conduct of the general election campaign. In detail, this menas campaigning, and thus appearing to be concerned with, all of the major geographical sections of the country. This will be relatively easy as there are in fact either battle- ground states or states with Senate candidates in every section of the country. It also means campaigning to the two groups that are most alienated from the rest of the country and that are -23- causing the most trouble: the blacks and the young people. I do not suggest that the Candidate modify his positions on the issues or his views on either domestic matters or foreign policies -- only that he campaign to these groups, thus reassuring the rest of the country that, as President, he would pursue a policy of national unification rather than continued drift or further division. "Probably every generation sees itself as charged with remaking the world. Mine, however, knows that it will not remake the world. But its task is perhaps even greater, for it consists in keeping the world from destroying itself. Albert Camus, on receiving the Nobel Prize for Literature, 1957. APPENDIX A Prof. & Business I White Collar II Farmers III Manual IV NORTHEASTERN REGION CONN. 2,915,000 NEW JERSEY 7,003,000 I. 44% I. 24% II. 30% II. 16% III. 0.6% III. 0.5% IV. 25% IV. 54% DELAWARE 524,000 NEW YORK 18,336,000 I. 24% I. 24% II. 17% II. 18% III. 3% III. 1% IV. 47% IV. 52% MAINE 973,000 PENNSYLVANIA 11,629,000 I. 18% I. 19% II. 16% II. 14% III. 3% III. 2% IV. 58% IV. 60% MARYLAND 3,682,000 RHODE ISLAND 900,000 I. 17% I. 19% II. 21% II. 15% III. 2% III. 0.5% IV. 47% IV. 59% MASSACHUSETTS 5,421,000 VERMONT 417,000 I. 23% I. 19% II. 15% II. 12% III. 0.5% III. 9% IV. 56% IV. 59% NEW HAMPSHIRE 686,000 I. 19% II. 12% III. 2% IV. 61% Prof. & Business I White Collar II Farmers III Manual IV WESTERN REGION ALASKA 272,000 NEVADA 444,000 I. 29% I. 24% II. 10% II. 10% III. 0.5% III. 3% IV. 51% IV. 58% ARIZONA 1,634,000 N. MEXICO I. 23% I. 26% II. 12% II. 11% III. 2% III. 5% IV. 57% IV. 55% CALIFORNIA 19,153,000 OREGON 1,999,000 I. 24% I. 22% II. 14% II. 12% III. 2% III. 5% IV. 52% IV. 59% COLORADO 1,975,000 UTAH 1,024,000 I. 25% I. 24% II. 13% II. 13% III. 6% III. 5% IV. 49% IV. 53% HAWAII 739,000 WASHINGTON 3,087,000 I. 20% I. 24% II. 12% II. 13% III. 2% III. 4% IV. 60% IV. 54% IDAHO 699,000 WYOMING 315,000 I. 20% I. 23% II. 9% II. 9% III. 16% III. 10% IV. 51% IV. 55% MONTANA 701,000 U.S.A. 197,863,000 I. 20% I. 21% II. 10% II. 14% III. 15% III. 5% IV. 49% IV. 55% Prof. & Business I White Collar II Farmers III Manual IV MIDWESTERN REGION ILLINOIS 10,893,000 NEBRASKA 1,435,000 I. 20% I. 18% II. 15% II. 12% III. 4% III. 23% IV. 54% IV. 42% INDIANA NORTH DAKOTA 639,000 I. 15% I. 18% II. 12% II. 9% III. 6% III. 34% IV. 59% IV. 35% IOWA 2,753,000 OHIO 10,458,000 I. 17% I. 20% II. 12% II. 13% III. 22% III. 3% IV. 44% IV. 56% KANSAS 2,275,000 OKLAHOMA 2,495,500 I. 20% I. 22% II. 13% II. 13% III. 15% III. 9% IV. 48% IV. 52% MICHIGAN SOUTH DAKOTA 674,000 I. 19% I. 17% II. 13% II. 9% III. 3% III. 31% IV. 60% IV. 39% MINNESOTA 3,582,000 W. VA. 1,798,000 I. 20% I. 17% II. 13% II. 11% III. 15% III. 3% IV. 47% IV. 63% MISSOURI 4,603,000 WISCONSIN 4,189,000 I. 19% I. 17% II. 14% II. 12% III. 10% III. 10% IV. 50% IV. 35% Prof. & Business I White Collar II Farmers III Manual IV SOUTHERN REGION ALABAMA 3,540,000 MISSISSIPPI 2,348,000 I. 17% I. 16% II. 11% II. 9% III. 8% III. 15% IV. 61% IV. 57% ARKANSAS NORTH CAROLINA 5,029,000 I. 17% I. 15% II. 10% II. 11% III. 12% III. 11% IV. 46% IV. 57% FLORIDA 5,995,000 SO. CAROLINA 2,599,000 I. 25% I. 15% II. 14% II. 11% III. 2% III. 8% IV. 54% IV. 62% GEORGIA 4,509,000 TENNESSEE 3,892,000 I. 18% I. 17% II. 13% II. 12% III. 6% II. 10% IV. 58% 1V. 58% KENTUCKY 3,189,000 TEXAS 10,869,000 I. 19% I. 22% II. 11% II. 13% III. 14% III. 6% IV. 55% IV. 48% LOUISIANA 3,662,000 VIRGINIA 4,536,000 I. 20% I. 20% II. 12% II. 13% III. 5% III. 6% IV. 59% IV. 56% POPULATION IN CITIES OF 500,000 OR MORE Alabama 0 Montana 0 Alaska 0 Nebraska 0 Arizona 0 Nevada 0 Arkansas 0 New Hampshire 0 California 3,783,000 New Jersey 0 Colorado 0 New Mexico 0 Connecticut 0 New York 8,313,000 Delaware 0 N. Carolina 0 D.C. 763,900 N. Dakota 0 Florida o Ohio 1,378,000 Georgia O Oklahoma 0 Hawaii O Oregon 0 Idaho 0 Pa. 2,606,000 Illinois 3,550,000 Rhode Island 0 Indiana 0 S. Carolina 0 Iowa 0 S. Dakota 0 Kansas 0 Tennessee 0 Kentucky 0 Texas 1,617,000 Louisiana 627,000 Utah 0 Maine 0 Vermont 0 Maryland 939,024 Virginia O Massachusetts 697,000 Washington 557,000 Michigan 1,670,144 W. Virginia O Minnesota 0 Wisconsin 741,000 Missouri 750,000 Wyoming 0 Mississippi 0 RURAL POPULATION Alabama 1,472,000 Montana 336,000 Alaska 140,000 Nebraska 646,000 Arizona 332,000 Nevada 84,000 Arkansas 1,021,000 New Hampshire 254,000 California 2,144,000 New Jersey 693,000 Colorado 461,000 New Mexico 326,000 Connecticut 550,000 New York 2,451,000 Delaware 154,000 N. Carolina 2,754,000 D.C. 0 N. Dakota 409,000 Florida 1,291,000 Ohio 2,584,000 Georgia 1,763,000 Oklahoma 863,000 Hawaii 149,000 Oregon 668,000 Idaho 350,000 Pa. 3,217,000 Illinois 1,941,000 Rhode Island 117,000 Indiana 1,753,000 S. Carolina 1,401,000 Iowa 1,294,000 S. Dakota 414,000 Kansas 850,000 Tennessee 1,703,000 Kentucky 1,685,000 Texas 2,393,000 Louisiana 1,196,000 Utah 223,000 Maine 472,000 Vermont 240,000 Maryland 847,000 Virginia 1,749,000 Massachusetts 846,000 Washington 910,000 Michigan 2,084,000 W. Virginia 1,149,000 Minnesota 1,293,000 Wisconsin 1,430,000 Mississippi 1,357,000 Wyoming 142,000 Missouri 1,443,000 POPULATION IN CITIES OF 2500 TO 50,000 Alabama 922,110 Montana 218,800 Alaska 79,140 Nebraska 298,542 Arizona 302,200 Nevada 74,100 Arkansas 518,110 New Hampshire 346,242 California 4,124,000 New Jersey 2,823,000 Colorado 505,300 New Mexico 476,800 Connecticut 1,604,000 New York 3,138,000 Delaware 48,900 N. Carolina 951,582 D.C. 0 N. Dakota 228,500 Florida 1,332,000 Ohio 3,062,700 Georgia 1,154,000 Oklahoma 815,100 Hawaii 142,900 Oregon 484,600 Idaho 338,300 Pa. 3,904,800 Illinois 3,192,000 Rhode Island 437,600 Indiana 1,522,700 S. Carolina 546,400 Iowa 761,600 S. Dakota 197,200 Kansas 719,100 Tennessee 768,100 Kentucky 63,070 Texas 2,529,300 Louisiana 728,800 Utah 297,900 Maine 711,000 Vermont 272,900 Maryland 653,900 Virginia 517,400 Massachusetts 2,940,000 Washington 697,200 Michigan 1,213,964 W. Virginia 443,300 Minnesota 1,103,800 Wisconsin 1,194,725 Mississippi 635,500 Wyoming 183,900 Missouri 1,255,600 POPULATION IN CITIES OF 50,000 TO 500,000 Alabama 772,000 Nebraska 429,000 Alaska 0 Nevada 115,000 Arizona 659,000 New Hampshire 88,000 Arkansas 102,000 New Jersey 1,719,000 California 3,744,000 New Mexico 201,000 Colorado 654,000 New York 1,730,000 Connecticut 869,000 N. Carolina 724,000 Delaware 95,000 N. Dakota 0 D.C. 0 Ohio 2,116,000 Florida 1,354,000 Oklahoma 646,000 Georgia 999,000 Oregon 422,000 Hawaii 294,000 Pa. 1,202,000 Idaho 51,000 Rhode Island 422,000 Illinois 974,000 S. Carolina 228,000 Indiana 1,411,000 S. Dakota 65,000 Iowa 695,000 Tennessee 908,000 Kansas 404,000 Texas 2,746,000 Kentucky 449,000 Utah 189,000 Louisiana 429,000 Vermont 0 Maine 72,000 Virginia 1,402,000 Maryland 258,000 Washington 328,000 Massachusetts 1,543,000 W. Virginia 223,000 Michigan 1,467,000 Wisconsin 344,000 Minnesota 951,000 Wyoming 0 Mississippi 194,000 Missouri 702,000 Montana 107,000 Population by sex: 1960 Census, Statistical Abstract p.26 Education, 1960 Census, Statistical Abstract p.115 Persons 25 years old or over Grade school - 8 years or less completed High school :- - 1-4 years completed College - 1 or more years completed Breakdown by Age: Statistical Abstract, 1960 p.25 18-44 years old 45-64 years old 654 over voting age 1960, RNC Study (1968) voting populations projections, RNC Study Alabama California Male 1,591,709 481% Male 7,836,707 50% Female 1,675,031 51% Female 7,880,497 50% Grade School 823,000 25% Grade School 2,512,000 16% High School 650,000 20% High School 4,298,000 27% College 196,000 6% College 2,059,000 13% Total 25+ 1,670,000 51% Total over 25 8,869,000 56% 18-44 1,201,000 37% 18-44 6,683,000 47% 45-64 658,000 20% 45-64 3,575,000 23% 65+ 284,000 9% 65+ 1,579,000 9% Voting age 1,825,000 56% Voting age 9,219,000 59% (1968) 2,037,000 (1968) 12,052,000 TOTAL 3,276,000 Total 15,717,000 Colorado Alaska Male Male 128,811 57% 870,467 50% Female Female 97,356 43% 883,480 50% Grade School Grade School 28,000 13% 284,000 16% High School 22% High School 440,000 25% 54,000 College 23,000 9% College 217,000 13% Total over 25 105,000 46% Total Over 25 941,000 54% 18-44 48% 18-44 684,000 39% 108,000 45-64 45-64 36,000 17% 359,000 21% 65+ 65+ 6,000 3% 170,000 9% Voting age 83,000 35% (55% in Voting age 1,007,000 57% (1968) (1968) 151,000 1968) 1,211,000 TOTAL TOTAL 228,000 1,754,000 Connecticut Arizona Male 1,244,229 49% Female Male 654,928 50% 1,291,005 51% Grade School Female 647,233 551,000 22% 50% Grade School 18% High Sc ool 658,000 26% 234,000 High School 22% College 272,000 11% 291,000 Total over 25 135,000 1,482,000 58% College 11% 18-44 971,000 38% Total over 25 661,000 51% 45-64 18-44 556,000 43% 610,000 24% 45-64 65+ 268,000 265,000 9% 21% 65+ 9% Voting age 118,000 1,590,000 60% (1968) Voting Age 680,000 52% 1,813,000 (1968) TOTAL 1,003,000 2,535,000 TOTAL 1,302,000 Delaware Arkansas Male 221,136 49% Male 49% Female 225,156 51% 878,987 Female 51% Grade School 86,000 20% 907,285 Grade School 505,000 28% High School 114,000 24% High School 20% College 45,000 10% 352,000 College 6% Total over 25 246,000 55% 106,000 Total over 25 54% 18-44 176,000 403 964,000 18-44 35% 45-64 95,000 21% 628,000 65+ 45-64 388,000 22% 39,000 8% 65+ 208,000 12% Voting age 264,000 57% (1968) Voting Age 58% 306,000 1,029,000 TOTAL (1968) 1,188,000 449,000 TOTAL 1,786,000 D.C. Idaho Male 358,171 47% Male 338,421 51% Female 405,785 53% Female 328,770 49% Grade School 152,000 20% Grade School 106,000 16% High School 190,000 25% High School 168,000 25% College 120,000 16% College 66,000 10% Total 25+ 461,000 61% Total 25+ 340,000 51% 18-44 282,000 37% 18-44 224,000 33% 45-64 178,000 24% 45-64 134,000 19% 65+ 72,000 9% 65+ 63,000 9% Total 764,000 Voting age 372,000 56% (1968) 404,000 Florida TOTAL 667,000 Male 2,436,783 50% Illinois Female 2,514,777 50% Grade School 1,067,000 22% Male 4,952,866 49% High School 1,282,000 26% Female 5,128,292 51% College 498,000 10% Grade School 2,320,000 23% Total 25+ 2,845,000 58% High School 2,562,000 18-44 25% 1,974,000 40% College 927,000 9% 45-64 1,099,000 22% Total 25+ 5,808,000 58% 65+ 719,000 13% 18-44 3,522,000 35% Voting Age 3,099,000 61% 45-64 (1968) 2,290,000 23% 3,924,000 65+ 1,044,000 10% TOTAL 4,952,000 Voting Age 6,244,000 60% (1968) 6,580,000 Georgia TOTAL 10,084,000 Male 1,925,913 49% Indiana Female 2,017,203 51% Grade School 1,002,000 25% Male 2,298,738 49% High School 740,000 19% Female 2,363,760 51% College 273,000 7% Grade School 967,000 21% Total 25+ 2,015,000 51% High School 1,233,000 26% 18-44 1,582,000 40% College 350,000 8% 45-64 795,000 20% Total 25 2,550,000 55% 65+ 319,000 1.7% 18-44 1,642,000 35% Voting Age 2,342,000 56% 45-64 (1968) 964,000 21% 2,834,000 65+ TOTAL 467,000 10% 3,943,000 Voting Age 2,784,000 58% (1968) 2,946,000 Hawaii TOTAL 4,663,000 Male 338,173 54% Iowa Female 294,599 46% Grade School 117,000 19% Male 1,359,047 49% High School 141,000 22% Female 1,398,490 51% College 51,000 8% Grade School 584,000 21% Total over 25 309,000 49% High School 710,000 26% 18-44 274,000 43% College 247,000 9% 45-64 116,000 19% Total 25+ 1,541,000 56% 65+ 36,000 51% 18-44 850,000 31% Voting age 321,000 56% 45-64 565,000 (1968) 21% 421,000 65+ 343,000 13% TOTAL 633,000 Voting Age 1,699,000 59% (1968) 1,653,000 Total 2,757,000 Kansas Maryland Male 1,081,377 50% Male 1,533,200 49½ Female 1,097,234 50% Female 1,567,489 50% Grade School 424,000 19% Grade School 694,000 22% High School 562,000 26% High School 707,000 23% College 230,000 11% College 292,000 9% Total 25+ 1,216,000 56% Total 25+ 1,693,000 55% 18-44 738,000 34% 18-44 1,274,000 41% 45-64 447,000 21% 45-64 682,000 22% 65+ 254,000 11% 65+ 255,000 7% Voting Age 1,315,000 60% (1968) Voting Age 1,819,000 57% 1,339,000 (1968) TOTAL 2,168,000 2,180,000 Total 3,101,000 Kentucky Massachusetts Male 1,508,448 49.4% Male Female 2,486,235 48% 1,529,708 50.6% Female Grade School 2,662,343 52% 926,000 30.4% Grade School High School 990,000 19% 506,000 17% High School 1,473,000 28% College 178,000 6% College Total 25+ 547,000 11% 1,610,000 53% Total 25+ 18-44 3,011,000 58% 1,077,000 36% 18-44 45-64 1,762,000 34% 608,000 45-64 65+ 1,155,000 23% 310,000 10% 65+ Voting age 603,000 12% 1,876,000 62% (1968) Voting age 3,230,000 63% 2,062,000 (1968) TOTAL 3,379,000 3,038,000 TOTAL 5,149,000 Louisiana Michigan Male 1,592,254 49% Male Female 3,882,868 491% 1,664,768 51% Female Grade School 3,940,326 50% 850,000 26% Grade School High School 1,556,000 20% 570,000 17% High School 2,035,000 26% College 220,000 7% College Total 25+ 627,000 8% 1,639,000 50% Total 25+ 18-44 4,217,000 54% 1,209,000 37% 18-44 45-64 2,783,000 36% 640,000 20% 45-64 65+ 1,645,000 21% 264,000 8% 65+ Voting Age 701,000 9% 1,770,000 54% (1968) Voting Age 4,519,000 57% 2,032,000 (1968) TOTAL 4,853,000 3,256,000 TOTAL 7,823,000 Maine Minnesota Male 479,054 49% Female 490,211 50% Male 1,692,962 49½ Grade School 194,000 20% Female 1,720,902 50% High School 265,000 27% Grade School 755,000 22% College 75,000 8% High School 759,000 22% Total 25+ 534,000 55% College 330,000 10% 18-44 319,000 33% Total 25+ 1,845,000 54% 45-64 195,000 20% 18-44 1,110,000 33% 65+ 111,000 11% 45-64 699,000 20% Voting Age 574,000 582% 65+ 387,000 11% (1968) 596,000 Voting age 2,003,000 59% TOTAL 969,000 (1968) 2,097,000 TOTAL 3,413,000 Mississippi Nevada Male 1,067,933 49% Male 147,521 51½ Female 1,110,208 51% Female 137,757 48½ Grade School 549,000 25% Grade School 39,000 14% High School 383,000 17½ High School 86,000 30% College 132,000 6% College 34,000 12% Total 25+ 1,065,000 49% Total Over 25 160,000 56% 18-44 748,000 34% 18-44 171,000 60% 45-64 415,000 19% 45-64 79,000 28% 65+ 201,000 9% 65+ 23,000 8% Voting age 1,163,000 54% Voting Age 174,000 61% (1968) 1,308,000 (1968) 285,000 TOTAL 2,178,000 TOTAL 285,000 Missouri New Hampshire Male 2,108,279 49% Male 298,107 49% Female 2,211,534 51% Female 308,814 51% Grade School 1,159,000 27% Grade School 132,000 22% High School 985,000 23% High School 159,000 26% College 349,000 8% College 55,000 9% Total 25+ 2,493,000 58% Total 25+ 345,000 57% 18-44 1,455,000 34% 18-44 227,000 37% 45-64 952,000 22% 45-64 135,000 22% 65+ 525,000 12% 65+ 73,000 11% Voting Age 2,651,000 61% Voting Age 367,000 61% (1968) 2,770,000 (1968) 418,000 TOTAL 4,320,000 TOTAL 607,000 Montana New Jersey Male 343,743 51% Male 2,971,991 49% Female 331,024 49% Female 3,094,791 51% Grade School 125,000 18½ Grade School 1,401,000 23% High School 161,000 24% High School 1,619,000 27% College 70,000 10% College 580,000 9½ Total 25+ 356,000 53% Total 25+ 3,600,000 59% 18-44 227,000 34% 18-44 2,355,000 39% 45-64 137,000 20% 45-64 1,485,000 242% 65+ 66,000 9½ 65+ 629,000 9% Voting Age 387,000 56% Voting Age 3,827,000 63% (1968) 412,000 (1968) 4,402,000 TOTAL 675,000 TOTAL 6,067,000 Nebraska New Mexico Male 700,026 49½ Male 479,770 50% Female 711,304 50% Female 471,253 Grade School 280,000 20% 49½ Grade School 108,000 11% High School 374,000 26% High School 135,000 14% College 138,000 10% College 91,000 10% Total 25+ 791,000 56% Total 25+ 445,000 47% 18-44 461,000 33% 18-44 344,000 36% 45-64 291,000 21% 45-64 163,000 17% 65+ 174,000 12% 65+ 60,000 6% Voting Age 857,000 59% Voting age 491,000 51% (1968) 891,000 (1968) 562,000 TOTAL 1,411,000 TOTAL 951,000 New York Oklahoma Male 8,123,239 48½ Male 1,147,851 49½ Female 8,659,065 51% Female 1,180,433 50% Grade School 3,876,000 23% Grade School 537,000 23% High School 4,542,000 27% High School 535,000 23% College 1,706,000 10% College 228,000 9½% Total 25+ 10,124,000 601% Total 25+ 1,300,000 56% 18-44 6,175,000 37% 18-44 830,000 36% 45-64 4,098,000 24% 45-64 502,000 21½ 65+ 1,850,000 11% 65+ 268,000 11% Voting age 10,788,000 64% Voting age 1,399,000 61% (1968) 11,773,000 (1968) 1,546,000 Total 16,782,000 TOTAL 2,328,000 North Carolina Oregon Male 2,247,069 50% Male 879,951 50% Female 2,309,086 492% Female 888,736 50% Grade School 1,171,000 26% Grade School 312,000 18% High School 828,000 18½ High School 488,000 28% College 308,000 7% College 196,000 11% Total 25+ 2,307,000 46% Total 25+ 996,000 55% 18-44 1,818,000 41% 18-44 647,000 37% 45-64 898,000 20% 45-64 409,000 23% 65+ 354,000 7½ 65+ 203,000 111/2% Voting Age 2,521,000 57% Voting Age 1,089,000 61% (1968) 2,919,000 (1968) 1,193,000 TOTAL 4,556,000 TOTAL 1,769,000 North Dakota Pennsylvania Male 323,208 51% Male 5,509,851 49% Female 309,238 49% Female 5,809,515 51% Grade School 158,000 25% Grade School 2,775,000 25% High School 111,000 17½ High School 2,998,000 26% College 55,000 9% College 832,000 7% Total 25+ 324,000 51% Total 25+ 6,606,000 58% 18-44 210,000 33% 18-44 3,848,000 34% 45-64 125,000 20% 45-64 2,603,000 23% 65+ 62,000 10% 65+ 1,189,000 10% Voting Age 350,000 56% Voting age 7,102,000 62% (1968) 370,000 (1968) 7,234,000 TOTAL 632,000 TOTAL 4,319,000 Ohio Rhode Island Male 4,764,228 49% Male 421,845 49% Female 4,942,169 51% Female 437,643 51% Grade School 1,978,000 201% Grade School 211,000 25% High School 2,613,000 27% High School 222,000 26% College 787,000 8% College 66,000 8% Total 25+ 5,378,000 55% Total 25+ 498,000 58% 18-44 3,453,000 36% 18-44 305,000 35% 45-64 2,056,000 21% 45-64 192,000 22% 65+ 948,000 9% 65+ 95,000 11% Voting Age 5,833,000 59% Voting Age 533,000 61% (1968) 6,235,000 (1968) 561,000 TOTAL 9,706,000 TOTAL 859,000 Male 1,175,818 49½ Male 444,924 50% Female 1,206,776 50% Female 445,703 50% Grade School 595,000 25% Grade School 91,000 10% High School 389,000 16% High School 223,000 25% College 152,000 6% College 106,000 12% Total 25+ 1,136,000 48% Total 25+ 419,000 47% 18-44 924,000 39% 18-44 340,000 38% 45-64 432,000 18% 45-64 161,000 18% 65+ 169,000 7% 65+ 68,000 8% Voting Age 1,227,000 52% Voting Age 469,000 53% (1968) 1,455,000 (1968) 562,000 Total 2,383,000 Total 891,000 South Dakota Vermont Male 344,271 50% Male 191,743 49% Female 336,243 492% Female 198,138 51% Grade School 157,000 23% Grade School 82,000 21% High School 141,000 21% * High School 95,000 24% College 62,000 9% Total 25+ 213,000 542% Total 25+ 360,000 53% 18-44 130,000 33% 18-44 209,000 31% 45-64 81,000 21% 45-64 132,000 19% 65+ 45,000 11% 65+ 77,000 12% Voting Age 230,000 59% Voting Age 388,000 56% (1968) 244,000 (1968) 370,000 TOTAL 390,000 TOTAL 680,000 *College 36,000 9% Tennessee Virginia Male 1,740,690 49½ Male 1,979,372 49½ Female 1,826,399 50% Female 1,987,577 50% Grade School 1,019,000 29% Grade School 934,000 24% High School 660,000 19% High School 791,000 20% College 233,000 7% College 358,000 9% Total 25+ 1,912,000 54% Total 25+ 2,083,000 52% 18-44 1,365,000 47% 18-44 45-64 1,650,000 42% 755,000 21½ 45-64 817,000 21% 65+ 336,000 10% 65+ 320,000 8% Voting Age 2,079,000 59% (1968) Voting Age 2,244,000 57% 2,361,000 (1968) TOTAL 2,690,000 3,517,000 Total 3,966,000 Texas Washington Male 4,744,981 494% Male 1,435,037 501% Female 4,834,696 50% Female 1,418,177 49½ Grade School 2,054,000 21% Grade School 456,000 16% High School 2,082,000 22% High School 790,000 28% College 894,000 9% College 331,000 12% Total 25+ 5,031,000 52% Total 25+ 1,577,000 55% 18-44 3,710,000 39% 18-44 990,000 35% 45-64 1,962,000 20% 45-64 612,000 21% 65+ 854,000 8½ 65+ 298,000 10% Voting Age 5,329,000 55½ (1968) Voting Age 1,703,000 59% 6,289,000 (1968) 1,838,000 TOTAL 9,580,000 Total 2,853,000 West Virginia Male 915,035 49% Female 945,386 51% Grade School 540,000 29% High School 346,000 19% College 114,000 6% Total 25+ 1,000,000 54% 18-44 595,000 32% 45-64 383,000 21% 65+ 182,000 10% Voting Age 1,085,000 59% (1968) 1,073,000 TOTAL 1,860,000 Wisconsin Male 1,964,512 50% Female 1,987,265 50% Grade School 930,000 24% High School 912,000 23% College 333,000 8% Total 25+ 2,175,000 55% 18-44 1,308,000 33% 45-64 837,000 21% 65+ 439,000 11% Voting Age 2,373,000 60% (1968) 2,484,000 TOTAL 3,952,000 Wyoming Male 169,015 51% Female 161,051 49% Grade School 50,000 15% High School 87,000 26% College 36,000 11% Total 25+ 174,000 53% 18-44 108,000 33% 45-64 65,000 20% 65+ 29,000 9½ Voting Age 186,000 57% (1968) 202,000 Total 330,000 HOURS OF CAMPAIGN TIME 3 1 1 2 1 1 0 3 / 1 7 0 0 0 2 5 8 1 17 7 3 6 1 2 15 5 15 1 D.C. - 0 0 1 5 3 24 3 7 5 5 4 3 2 3 1 2 o 0 4 10 0 Alaska - 2 8 Hawaii - 1