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This file contains:
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: registration and voting information for the New Hampshire, Florida, Illinois, and Wisconsin primaries. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/17/1971
From Khachigian to Buchanan presenting an analysis of the early Democratic primaries in the 1972 election. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/3/1971
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: Democratic candidate information and analysis for the 1971 primaries. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 11 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/19/1971
From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: early campaign polls. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1971
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This file contains:
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: registration and voting information for the New Hampshire, Florida, Illinois, and Wisconsin primaries. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/17/1971
From Khachigian to Buchanan presenting an analysis of the early Democratic primaries in the 1972 election. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/3/1971
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: Democratic candidate information and analysis for the 1971 primaries. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 11 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/19/1971
From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: early campaign polls. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1971
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
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1
21
12/17/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE:
registration and voting information for the
New Hampshire, Florida, Illinois, and
Wisconsin primaries. Handwritten notes
added by unknown. 1 pg.
1
21
12/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Buchanan presenting an
analysis of the early Democratic primaries in
the 1972 election. 3 pgs.
1
21
11/19/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE:
Democratic candidate information and
analysis for the 1971 primaries. Handwritten
notes added by unknown. 11 pgs.
1
21
11/2/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: early
campaign polls. 1 pg.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Page 1 of 1
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
December 17, 1971
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By Date 12/1/82
CONFID ENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN
Here is some basic information you wanted on the early pri-
maries. Basically, it involves crossover voting and the like.
In New Hampshire, an individual has to vote on their party's
ballot. Once they declare their party affiliation, they must vote on
that ballot. They can write in names of other party candidates, but
those votes don't count towards delegate apportionment. Note that
in New Hampshire independents may vote in either party's primary.
Pete McCloskey is getting the kids to register as independents
to do this very thing.
In Florida, once a person is registered in a party, he can't
vote in the other party's primary.
In Illinois when the person goes to vote, he signs an affidavit
declaring whether he is a Dem or Republican and he gets that
party's ballot and he can vote only on that ballot.
In Wisconsin, there is no registration. People go to the polls,
get two ballots (one Republican and one Dem). They vote on one
ballot and throw the other away. Thus, crossover voting is essen-
Note
tially allowed and it may be in our interest to have Republicans vote
on the Dem ballot for HHH.
Note: per your question on whether we are O.K. in Illinois, I
checked with Magruder. Jeb said everything is under control and
that all districts will have slates running pledged to RN. Our
machinery is deciding which delegates are running, and there is no
chance that McCloskey (or Ashbrook) can slip in slates to beat us --
at least those chances have been minimized. All voting is for district
delegates and there is not a statewide vote for a particular candidate.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
December 3, 1971
12065, Section 6-102
Date 12/1/82
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN
The
SUBJECT: THE 1972 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
While it's not possible to make a rock-hard prediction of the full
primary route for the Democrats, I think we have enough information
to look at the first four big ones and give some idea of the scenario
through Wisconsin.
The New Hampshire primary falls on March 7 -- after the with-
drawal deadlines for Illinois, Florida and Wisconsin. Thus, anyone
going into New Hampshire will at least have to go into Wisconsin and
Florida (where Secretary of States have discretion as to who goes on
the ballot) and possibly into Illinois (where the primary is opening up
this year).
NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire is Muskie's. Jackson has pulled out because the
polls showed him with nothing. That leaves Yorty and McGovern who
at this point will be Muskie's only opponents. The key here is to insist
that Muskie must do better than RN's 1968 showing to call New Hampshire
a victory. Yorty will get around 20% with Bill Loeb's endorsement and
McGovern a hard-core 15% based on some polling recently reported.
FLORIDA
I believe at this point that Florida is going to be an indecisive
primary but one that still benefits Muskie. The Florida ballot will
probably include: Muskie, McGovern, Jackson, Shirley Chisholm,
George Wallace, Sam Yorty, Hubert Humphrey, John Lindsay and
Eugene McCarthy.
Page 2
The big story in Florida will probably be the poor showing of
Scoop Jackson. It's long been my feeling supported most recently
by Evans-Novak and several polls that Jackson is going nowhere.
In Florida, his appeal will be lost under Wallace's frank hard-line
appeals in the northern part of the state.
Shirley Chisholm, McGovern, Lindsay and McCarthy will split the
libs and blacks in Florida. Humphrey will probably have a small bloc
by virtue of his endorsement by Miami mayor David Kennedy, Yorty
a fringe, and Muskie picking up 25-35% -- enough for a close margin
of victory. If there's no big victory there for Muskie, at least there's
no great loss either.
ILLINOIS
Illinois is opening up its primary for the first time allowing
presidential hopefuls to have their names alongside the candidates
for convention delegates in each Congressional district. No one has
yet planned to run anybody in opposition to the delegates in Chicago
still Daley's. But both McGovern and Muskie plan to run delegates in
other districts and conceivably could pick up about as many delegates
as will Daley. Yet, I can't picture Daley giving up total control of his
delegation and thus think that he wi 11 try to get a majority so he still
has control in Miami. Nevertheless, Muskie has an excellent oppor-
tunity to get committed to him upwards of 35% of the Illinois delegation.
WISCONSIN
All early primaries eventually lead to Wisconsin on April 4 where
the Secretary of State has discretion as to who goes on the ballot and
affidavits of non-candidacy are required to get off the ballot.
It looks promising for Muskie right now. McGovern, Lindsay and
McCarthy will all probably be on the ballot along with Humphrey, Jackson
and Shirley Chisholm. The liberals will again divide the kids and the left.
Humphrey has some residual strength in Wisconsin but surely not enough
to win more than one or two districts. Jackson has no source of strength
in Wisconsin and I call it a wash for Scoop.
So again, it looks like Muskie, with at least one article I read giving
him as many as 8 out of 10 districts. He will, of course, have great
strength in Milwaukee and wherever else large Polish enclaves exist.
Plus, there is something about the solid Ed image that sells in Wisconsin.
Page 3
A Wisconsin victory for Muskie, added to earlier leads in the
first primaries makes a solid position for Big Ed going into the
others. It will really almost go by default to the extent that his
opponents will not be able to muster significant showings through
Wisconsin. And if no large candidate emerges to oppose him, Muskie
will reap enormous psychological victories in Wisconsin, probably
loosen up some money, and be on his way to other primaries.
After Wisconsin, a brand new analysis will be necessary. Things
will have changed sufficiently to let us make some final plans. More
will then be known about EMK and we can start giving some thought to
the Southern primaries as well as Oregon and California.
Please note, per Tab A, that the various dates of the primaries still
makes them crowded and hopefully confused enough so that even though
Muskie is winning, he won't have the nomination locked up via the pri-
maries and that a bloody Miami is still possible. For example, the
Florida primary comes after the withdrawal deadlines for Illinois,
Rhode Island, Massachusetts (subject to change), Pennsylvania, Wis-
consin, and Nebraska.
And by the Wisconsin primary, the withdrawal deadlines for
Nebraska, Tennessee, Indiana, South Dakota, North Carolina and
Maryland will have passed. Thus, every one of those primaries are
likely to be littered with names -- even if candidates are withdrawing
after Wisconsin. And it's to our benefit to keep those primaries
crowded (even to the extent of asking Republican Secretaries of State
to keep Democrats on the ballot) so as to make each of Muskie's
victories indecisive.
My recommendation: Higher ups should give some immediate
attention to this information and sanction our ongoing analysis here.
No one really seems to be giving serious attention to what is happening
in the other camp (at least in terms of slogging through all the state
laws), yet what happens with the Dems is, for now, equally important
as what happens to us.
MK
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
DETERMINED TO BE AN
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
12065, Section 6-102
By MINARS, Date 12/1/82
November 19, 1971
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN
SUBJECT: THE 1972 PRIMARIES AND THE DEMOCRATS
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Candidates have a filing deadline of February 3 for a primary on
March 7. To get out, the candidate must withdraw within 10 days of
receipt of candidacy, i.e. by February 13 (assuming the filing is
complete on February 3). This leaves enough time to also file an
affidavit taking his name off the ballot in Florida (which has a with-
drawal deadline of noon, February 15).
So, for example, if McGovern sputters and wants out after New
Hampshire, he can do it in time to get his name off the Florida ballot
and almost all the other as well.
New Hampshire Secretary of State -- Republican -- Robert L. Sturk
FLORIDA:
Candidates are placed on the ballot by a bipartisan committee --
selecting generally advocated and nationally recognized candidates for the
office of President. February 10 is the filing deadline and noon,
February 15 is the deadline for filing their withdrawal affidavit. The
primary date is March 14.
Assume someone is on the ballot in Florida and sticks it out
through election day on March 14. This will commit him to the Wis-
consin, Nebraska and Oregon primaries for sure. It will also commit
him to the Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania
primaries if he had filed for them and possibly to the North Carolina
primary (a strange primary which is outlined below).
Page 2
What this means is that as early as Florida, candidates
will be committing themselves weeks ahead, unable to avoid
at least having their names on some more ballots.
Florida Secretary of State -- Democrat -- Richard B. Stone
ILLINOIS:
The information is sketchy right now, but in essence Illinois is
now going to allow persons running for the Convention delegation to
have listed next to their names the name of their favored Presidential
candidate. The delegates are elected out of Congressional districts.
Daley will run his slate - - "uncommitted" delegates (though
committed to him) in at least the seven districts in Chicago. As for
now, only McGovern and Muskie have indicated running their people
in other districts -- Muskie in perhaps 16 and McGovern in perhaps
a dozen.
The Illinois primary is before Wisconsin and after Florida. The
filing deadline is January 3 and the withdrawal of a candidate must come
by January 8. So a candidate could pull out of Illinois without committing
into the other primaries.
I can't imagine Daley giving up anything in Illinois if he can help
it. I would guess that he will try to control at least a majority of the
delegation, thus squeezing out some of the other candidates. It really
all depends on Daley. If he doesn't try to pick up all the marbles, then
Illinois becomes a fairly important primary. There will be too many
delegates to pass up.
Illinois Secretary of State -- Republican -- John W. Lewis
WISCONSIN:
The filing deadline is January 31, and the candidates will be
placed on the ballot by an 11-man bipartisan committee -- selecting
all nationally recognized candidates. Then the candidates - - if they
want out must file an affidavit of withdrawal by February 29 for the
primary on April 4.
Page 3
If a candidate sticks it out through the Wisconsin primary he is
committed to having his name on the ballot in Tennessee, Nebraska,
Maryland and Oregon (all states where names are put on the ballot
at state's discretion), and in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Pennsyl-
vania, and Indiana if they have previously filed in those states. All
these states have withdrawal deadlines before the Wisconsin primary.
My guess is that virtually all the hopefuls will stick it out
through Wisconsin, hoping they will catch fire somewhere. This is
perfect for us because then it commits them to at least being on the
ballot in four more states - - Tennessee being the most important
addition since Florida - even if they no longer profess candidacy.
Wisconsin Secretary of State -- Republican - - Robert Zimmerman.
PENNSYLVANIA:
The primary is on April 25 with a filing deadline of February 15.
The withdrawal deadline to get off the ballot is February 22.
A candidate may be nominated via petition in order to have his
name placed on the ballot, and his consent is not required. Only
some delegates are elected in the primary. I doubt that any
candidate's name will be entered there without his consent. However,
some candidates may choose to run there without publicly consenting.
For example, I can envision Humphrey having his name entered in the
Pennsylvania primary while publicly disavowing it. It would be a
logical place for Humphrey because of the strong old-line machine
which could get the vote out for him.
I have a gut feeling, however, that Humphrey will be in most of
the primaries from Florida onward and if he does marginally well,
he may pull out all the stops for the last primaries on June 6 California,
South Dakota, New Jersey and New Mexico.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Democrat C. Delores Tucker
INDIANA:
Primary is on May 2; the filing deadline is March 23. A person
getting on the Indiana ballot must withdraw by March 27th to get off.
Thus they can get off after the New Hampshire and Florida primaries,
but not after the Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Massachusetts or Pennsyl-
vania primaries.
Indiana Secretary of State Democrat - Larry Conrad
Page 4
OHIO:
The Ohio primary is May 2 and the filing deadline is February 2.
A candidate must withdraw if he wishes "any reasonable time before
the ballots are printed. 11 That is subject to interpretation, and there
is no telling how that withdrawal date would come down.
However, I don't consider Ohio crucial at this time. John
Gilligan is going to play the James Rhodes game and run as a favorite
son and control the delegation. I don't foresee him opening it up to
the others. He obviously wants to broker what he can in Miami.
Maybe he will learn what Rhodes did you can sometimes get your
fingers burned doing this.
Secretary of State -- Republican Ted W. Brown
NORTH CAROLINA:
The North Carolina State Board of Elections will list the generally
advocated individuals on the Presidential ballot by February 21. To get
off the ballot in North Carolina does not require any action. To the
contrary, in order to stay on, the candidate must file a notice of
candidacy and $1000. If the $1000 is not given within 15 days of listing
of candidacy, their name will be withdrawn.
The conclusion in North Carolina is simple; it really becomes like
the other primaries to the extent that any candidate who does not want
to get on the ballot there will not, even if he is a candidate in some
other state. And by this reasoning, we simply cannot tell in advance
with any degree of certainty who will be on the ballot. So scratch
North Carolina as one of those primaries where certain candidates
have to run.
North Carolina Secretary of State - - Democrat -- Thad Eure
TENNESSEE:
Another state where the names will go on the ballot at the discretion
of the Secretary of State. This will be done by March 9 for a May 4
primary. To get out of the Tennessee primary, a non-candidacy affidavit
must be filed 10 days after March 9 which would allow time to get off
this ballot after the Florida primary.
Of interest in Tennessee is the possible candidacy of Congressman
William Anderson (of Tiger Cage fame). Wilbur Mills might take a
Page 5
crack, and old George will surely file in Tennessee. Note that
Wallace is talking about going into both Dem and Republican pri-
maries, and I have no doubt he will. It could be rough for us as well
as for the Dems.
I consider Tennessee along with North Carolina as important
Southern and border primaries for us as well as the Dems. The
showings in those two states may well tell us what kind of strengths
the eventual nominees are going to have in the South and border states.
Tennessee Secretary of State -- Democrat -- Joe C. Carr
OREGON:
Oregon is the next big primary, coming on May 23 with a filing
deadline of 5:00 p.m. March 14. The names will be placed on the
ballot by the Secretary of State at his discretion. The key thing about
Oregon this time is that a candidate cannot withdraw his name from
the ballot even with an affidavit.
My guess is that Oregon is going to be chock full of Democrats
most of them having been committed there simply by having appeared
on the Wisconsin and Florida ballots.
Note that a research firm in Oregon found Scoop Jackson running
behind Muskie, McGovern, McCarthy, Kennedy and Humphrey. Jackson
was getting 7.8% a poor last. That's interesting because Oregon
is Scoop's back yard in the same way that New Hampshire is Muskie's
back yard. It may cause us to reassess the Jackson strength. Moreover,
Teddy Kennedy's weakness in Oregon may also urge us to get him on
the ballot there where he can get off.
Oregon Secretary of State -- Republican -- Clay Myers
CALIFORNIA:
The primary date is June 6 and the filing deadline for candidacy
is April 7. Once a candidate gets on the ballot he cannot withdraw -
making two big primary states in a row where the candidate cannot
withdraw.
California Secretary of State Democrat - Edmund G. Brown, Jr.
Page 6
OBSERVATIONS:
I think it is inadvisable to predict right now how the various pri-
maries will boil down. I think by the time of the Florida primary, we
should be able to make some better judgments. However, in the
meantime, some logical scenarios can be drawn up.
New Hampshire will be a throwaway one way or the other. If
Muskie wins big, it doesn't mean much. However, I don't think his
margin will be too high, and that he will be bloodied up somewhat.
Yorty will blast him from the right and McGovern from the left.
Jackson's presence in New Hampshire likely will do little more than
establish some name identity for him. Bill Loeb will support Yorty.
Florida might well be indecisive with the winner getting 25-35%
of the vote and Wallace being right up there with a chunk of the Florida
primary. Some of this might depend on a loyalty oath, but then such
things never held back old Gawg. With McGovern, Chisholm, Jackson,
Lindsay, Muskie, McCarthy and now probably Humphrey in the show,
Florida will be a toss-up. No decisive victories in Florida, unless
Wallace comes through with a win on the strength of Northern Florida.
Illinois will not be a crucial primary because I think Daley is smart
enough to do what he can to control most of the voting for delegates.
But Wisconsin is the next one, and that, I believe, becomes the first
serious primary where we can start perceiving a trend. And right
now, I think it looks promising for Muskie. McGovern, Lindsay and
McCarthy will all probably be on the ballot. Throw in Shirley Chisholm
and that just totally confuses the left. Jackson is nowhere in Wisconsin,
and that leaves most of the chips for Big Ed (though it has been noted
that HHH might start his big push in Wisconsin).
Muskie can concede Madison and some other areas to the left, but
I see most of the rest going to him especially the ethnic rich
Milwaukee area. Humphrey might be the main problem right now,
but I don't think Hubert will make much of an effect in Wisconsin. If
Muskie does well in Wisconsin, money will loosen up, and he may try
to get a bandwagon psychology going for him.
Rhode Island is insignificant and Massachusetts primary law is
now perfectly suited for Teddy to control the delegation. The Massachu-
setts primary is now moot.
Page 7
Pennsylvania is next, and it is a district by district type of thing.
It depends just how much Shapp can control his own show which I
doubt very much because of Rizzo. With all the battling, no one is going
to pick up anything of significance in Pennsylvania. No bets there.
That brings us to Indiana, which holds its primary on May 2nd.
Indiana is of marginal importance. It could be the state where Lindsay.
tries to revive himself after a setback in Wisconsin. He may get the
support of Gordon St. Angelo, and if he does, he'll aim for the same
constituency that made RFK popular in Indiana. I expect that Jackson,
Muskie and some others will also be in Indiana, but it just simply is not
a central primary state.
Ohio is also on May 2, but I see a Gilligan favorite son bid, and
thus no real action in Ohio -- i. one with no psychological impact
on the other races.
But North Carolina is also on May 2, and that could be a very
important primary vis 'a vis the South. Moreover, Tennessee
follows North Carolina on May 4. Together, these two primaries
will tell a great story for us. It may be one of the last gasps for our
friend Scoop.
North Carolina and Tennessee are important to those candidates
who intend to take more of a centrist Democrat line the old Roosevelt
coalition and maybe the Kefauver rhetoric. Muskie, Jackson, Mills,
Chisholm, and Wallace will almost certainly be on these ballots. Lindsay
and McGovern will have to be on the Tennessee ballot if they go through
Wisconsin they have no choice. Humphrey, I would guess, should
try to make some showing in one of these states to prove he has some
appeal to the South.
Muskie has good support in North Carolina, and Scoop has been
spending a great deal of time there. But George Wallace is going to
be there to give them all headaches as he will in Tennessee. And
William Anderson might be in Tennessee to confuse things especially
in his home district.
I think Muskie would win North Carolina -- the right will be split
by Jackson, Wallace, and Mills, if he's there. Shirley Chisholm will
take the Blacks and some liberals and McGovern may get 10 votes there
if he sticks with it. If Muskie wins North Carolina after having won
Wisconsin, he has a strong argument for saying that he can do well in
all sections of the country. This helps his road to the nomination
immensely. It's too hard to call Tennessee right now. But Muskie's
Page 8
organization and strength there is not legend, and George Wallace
might be the big story there. The trouble with Tennessee is that
every soul on the Wisconsin ballot goes on the Tennessee ballot and
that makes it start looking more like Florida a toss-up with little
national impact and no one picking up convincing delegate strength.
Nebraska, West Virginia, and Maryland are hardly kingmaker
states. Those are the next three primaries, and I don't expect they
will titillate Eric Sevareid. Anyway, Mandel will probably call the
shots in the Maryland primary at least he's trying.
start
Finally, to Oregon, where everyone will be on the ballot. They
again.
can't get off. Even Teddy will probably be on that ballot. This could
be a fun and games primary. Even if Teddy decides he wants in, he's
not all that popular in Oregon (cf. McCarthy vs. RFK in '68), and he's
way behind Muskie in the polls. In fact, Muskie is leading with an
extremely comfortable margin in Oregon.
minning last in a want pall.
Now Oregon is supposed to be Scoop's back yard, but he's not
doing too hot there The vote will be split every which way, and
right now I pick Muskie even if he only gets 40%. That won't hurt
him, because he will have come into Oregon with a substantially
successful primary record. Oregon can only be the saving grace for
other candidates maybe Lindsay or Jackson, or even McCarthy
again. But don't count on it. The final prize is in California.
If there is any hunger for the nomination by any Democrat, he
will go into California with every thing he's got. That's why Humphrey
has really made serious moves there, and why I think he is going to
make California his make or break state. He has financial backing
and old ties there. And while the cats are away, HHH just might
make some headway stumping the Golden state.
But it's not that easy. Lindsay will probably make one last fling
in California. Muskie will pour on the steam. Jackson, by now will
have lost his taste. I he'll be out by California. McGovern
can't pass up California if he's come this far (unless Teddy goes for it).
McCarthy shouldn't be expected to do too much there
The real light
in
is EMK. The filing deadline is
If Wisconsin makes it look like the liberals have had it but that RN
the
still might be beatable, then EMK might swoop up the Kennedy torch
states,
and run for daylight.
cust to
set in
(remember, you saw it here
California
first).
Page 9
Without Kennedy, California becomes fair Muskie game.
Humphrey could make a good showing, and Lindsay and McGovern
will split the left. I would again pick Muskie. If Kennedy is in,
I give the state and all its delegates to him.
The last three primaries, New Mexico, South Dakota and
New Jersey are on the same day as California, June 6. All attention
will be on California and those other three states will just be a
matter of who splits the delegates.
What this all means is that Muskie goes into convention with
the most primary delegates and the best showing in the primaries.
But it will be the delegates not selected in the primaries and the
delegates controlled by favorite sons that still hold the balance at
the convention. At that time all the IOU's will come in.
The important thing for Muskie is his primary momentum and
his ability to something decent in the South. If he showed this, I think
he has the nomination. But I don't think he will get it on the first
ballot. I think there will be hedging on the first ballot with a com-
fortable lead to Muskie. But even if it takes two or three ballots,
it still comes out Muskie.
That's the scenario I see now, but it can change tomorrow. I
repeat: On the morning of April 5, I think we can make mere solid
judgments on how things will look from there. But until then, we
are going on gut instincts.
This information needs to be digested and periodically reviewed.
Thought must be given to what we want our Republican Secretaries
of State to do in the various states. And finally, an ongoing strategy
to exacerbate Democratic differences has to be evolved out of what
we know.
Attachment
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.On
12065, Section 6-102
By
Date
12/1/82
1971 PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARIES - WITHDRAWAL DEADLINES
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Withdrawal-within 10 days of receipt of
candidacy.
Secretary of State-Robert L. Sturk (R)
FLORIDA:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed by noon,
February 15.
Secretary of State-Richard B. Stone (D)
ILLINOIS:
Withdrawal-5 days from time of filing deadline,
i.e. Jan. 8 (filing deadling Jan. 3).
Secretary of State-John W. Lewis (R)
WISCONSIN:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed the last day in
February.
Secretary of State-Robert C. Zimmerman (R)
RHODE ISLAND:
Withdrawal-January 14.
Secretary of State-August P. LaFrance (D)
MASSACHUSETTS:
Withdrawal-February 11.
Secretary of State-John F. X. Davoren (D)
PENNSYLVANIA:
Withdrawal-February 22.
Secretary of State-C. Delores Tucker (D)
INDIANA:
Withdrawal-March 23
Secretary of State-Larry Conrad (D)
OHIO:
Withdrawal- "Any reasonable time before the
ballots are printed. "
Secretary of State-Ted W. Brown (R)
NORTH
CAROLINA:
Withdrawal-must give $1,000 within 15
days of notice of candidacy,
otherwise is withdrawn.
Secretary of State-Thad Eure (D)
TENNESSEE:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed by the 10th
day after receipt of notice.
Secretary of State-Joe C. Carr (D)
NEBRASKA:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed by March 10.
Secretary of State-Allan J. Beermann (R)
WEST
VIRGINIA:
Withdrawal-by the 5th day prior to the primary.
Secretary of State-John D. Rockefeller IV (D)
MARYLAND:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed 45 days before primary.
Secretary of State-Fred Wineland (D)
OREGON:
Withdrawal-cannot withdraw
Secretary of State-Clay Myers (R)
CALIFORNIA:
Withdrawal-cannot withdraw
Secretary of State-Edmund G. Brown, Jr. (D)
NEW MEXICO:
Withdrawal-must give $500 within 15 days after
receipt of notice.
Secretary of State-Mrs. Betty Fiorina (D)
SOUTH DAKOTA:
Withdrawal-April 27.
Secretary of State-Alma Larson (R)
NEW JERSEY:
Withdrawal-by the 34th day before primary.
Secretary of State-Paul J. Sherwin (R)
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 2, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR H.R. HALDEMAN (per Strachan)
FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN
Ce
An interesting note on the Harris Poll of yesterday showing
the President !eading EMK by 45% to 38%. I believe the poll is
suspect and that in reality the President's lead might be even
higher over Teddy.
Harris has the Black vote going 3% for the President and 93%
for Teddy. Because this sounded out of line, I checked back to a
RN/EMK trial heat Harris took this last June. In that one the
President led Teddy 44% to 36% and among Blacks it was RN - 13%,
EMK 71%.
How, in a period of three months could Teddy's support among
Blacks jump thirty percent and the President's drop by 75%? My
conclusion: Harris slanted the poll somewhat (note that his inter-
pretation has EMK as the only Dem pulling up on RN while all others
drop back). And the slanting probably took place not only in the Black
precincts.
In any case, the data just struck me as interesting, and I feel
that the true reading would have RN scoring as high over EMK as he
does over Muskie.
bcc: Pat Buchanan