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    "title": "WHSF: Contested, 1-39",
    "description": "This file contains:\n\nFrom Buchanan to RN RE: various state primaries and the statuses of Democratic candidates. Included is a list of states with upcoming primaries. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1971",
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    "url": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/71/1442/26144271/content/presidential-libraries/nixon/RN-RET/2546065/Contested-Box-1/Contested-01-39.pdf",
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    "ocrText": "Richard Nixon Presidential Library\nContested Materials Collection\nFolder List\nBox Number\nFolder Number\nDocument Date\nNo Date\nSubject\nDocument Type\nDocument Description\n1\n39\n10/18/1971\nCampaign\nMemo\nFrom Buchanan to RN RE: various state\nprimaries and the statuses of Democratic\ncandidates. Included is a list of states with\nupcoming primaries. 4 pgs.\nMonday, September 27, 2010\nPage 1 of 1\n[Item N.5]\nNo THE BE oF\nOctober 18, 1971\nBy\nA\nF.O.\nCONF IDENTIAL\nMEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT\nFROM:\nPATRICK J. BUCHANAN\nKevin Phillips has called to my attention a most interesting fact which\nshould cloud, to some degree, the Democratic primaries, and which seems\non the surface to strengthen the hand of Senator Muskie. The fact:\nThe filing deadline for no fewer than 13 primaries falls on or before the\ndate when the Florida primary takes place. In no fewer than six of these\n13 primaries Presidential candidates are (Wisconsin, North Carolina,\nTennessee, Nebraska, Oregon, as well as Florida) or can be (Pennsylvania)\nfiled withou permission of the candidate himself.\nIn all these six primaries, the names filed in the Presidential primary\nare those of \"generally advocated and national recognized\" Presidential\ncandidates. What does this mean:\na)\nAnyone active in the Florida primary for the Presidential nomination\n(as of now probably Chisholm, Jackson, Muskie, Lindsay, McGovern,\nWallace and Harris) is almost certainly going to be filed in all those other\nsix or seven primaries as well -- since Florida comes after the filing\ndeadlines ofaall of them, and since they will be \"active\" candidates when\nthat deadline passes.\nb)\nLindsay and Chisholm and McGovern and the left candidates do not\nhave any \"choice\" as to whether they go into Tennessee, North Carolina\nand Nebraska. If they go into Florida -- then they will automatically be\n\"filed\" in the others; and Lindsay and Chisholm and McGovern will surely\nwind up with a string of ignominious defeats before they get to Oregon.\nc)\nThe likelihood is high then, that the primaries are going to be\nsomething of a mess, and that secondary aandidates -- even when\neliminated -- cannot help but have their names dragged through until at\nleast after Oregon.\nd)\nUnless Pete McCloskey withdraws immediately after New Hampshire --\nhe will automatically be filed in Tennessee (March 9 filing deadline),\nNebraska (March 10) and Oregon (March 14) -- where it is certain he will\nbe administered a massive defeat. Even if McCloskey does well in New\nHampshire (say 15%-30%). it would seem that he himself could see this\nas his apogee, and then \"stand down\" immediately saying he had made\nhis point -- instead of taking his inevitable bad beatings in the Tennessee\nand Nebraska primaries, even before Oregon.\ne)\nIn both Oregon and Nebraska, just who is on the ballot is the sole\ndecision of the Secretary of State. In both cases, he is a Republican\n(Clay Myers of Oregon, up in 1972) and Alan J. Beermann in Nebraska).\nWe should decide ourselved just who we want filed in the Democratic\nprimaries -- do we want \"George\" or not in the Democratic primaries --\nand then get the word to these Secretaries of State.\nf)\nWithout having done mush analysis, I would thank at this point that\nMuskie whose strength is much broader, whose recognition is wider, would\nbe the beneficiary of these cluttered primaries, or perhaps Jackson -- if\nWallace is kept out.\nBut if Muskie, as the centrist, between the extremes, as the front-runner\nand best-known wins in all these contests, he is going to build considerable\nmomentum for a victory in California, which would cinch his nomination,\nas of now, it seems to me.\ng)\nIf the left takes a string of beatings as it seems Harris, McGovern,\nLindsay and Chisholm will certainly do in the \"mandatory primaries\" of\nFlorida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Tennessee and Nebraska -- before\nOregon even comes up on May 23 -- it would seem thatby the time of\nOregon they would be forced to unite behind one of their number in Oregon --\nor get whipped again. The \"drubbing\" of the left, which would seem\ninherent in the shaping up of these primaries, might well produce the\nkind of bitterness that would result in a fourth party.\n(Note: If Lindsay is doing the same analysis as here, it would seem almost\ncertain that he would want to hang back until after the Florida deadline,\nFebruary 10, to announce. Also, Hubert would seem to have a vested\ninterest in staying out of these \"mandatory\" primaries, where he, too,\nwould see likely to get beat. But if Hubert wants to go into Wisconsin\n(filing deadline January 31), he has to go into all of the six'mandatory\"\nprimaries, since all their deadlines come after Florida.\n-3-\nh)\nThe California deadline is April 7. By the only New Hampshire\nFlorida, Illinois and Wisconsin will have taken place -- Wisconsin just\nthree days before!\nAt this point, the Left -- in the persons of Harris, Chisholm, McGovern\nand Lindsay -- will have to decide whether they will go into the California\nprimary. As will Edward M. Kennedy. If both Kennedy and Lindsay go,\nof course, that makes for a split in the Left vote, and perhaps or probably\na victory for Muskie.\nThe above is a very sketchy analysis based on the deadlines for filing and\nthe dates of the primaries themselves. At this point in time, it seems to\nme we should have an experienced, professional analyst looking over\nthese maze of dates and regulations in the primaries, to give us some\nkind of accurate scenario over what each candidate is likely to do -- in\nlight of them.\nBuchanan\ncc:\nAttorney General Mitchell\nH. R. Haldeman\nPrimary\nFiling\nState\nDate\nState\nDeadline\nNew Hampshire\nMarch 7\nIllinois\nJanuary 3\nFlorida\nMarch 14\nWisconsin\nJanuary 31\nIllinois\nMarch 21\nRhode Island\nJanuary 31\nWisconsin\nAptil 4\nOhio\nFebruary 2\nRhode Island\nApril 11\nNew Hampshire\nFebruary 3\nMassachusetts\nApril 25\nWest Virginia\nFebruary 5\nPennsylvania\nApril 25\nFlorida\nFebruary 10\nDistrict of Columbia\nMay 2\nPehnsylvania\nFebruary 15\nIndiana\nMay 2\nMassachusetts\nFebruary 29\nOhio\nMay 2\nNorth Carolina\nMarch 7\nNorth Carolina\nMay 2\nTennessee\nMarch 9\nTennessee\nMay 4\nNebraska\nMarch 10\nNebraska\nMay 9\nOregon\nMarch 14\nWest Virginia\nMay 9\nDistrict of Columbia\nMarch 18\nMaryland\nMay 16\nIndiana\nMarch 23\nOregon\nMay 23\nMaryland\nMarch 24\nCalifornia\nJune 6\nCalifornia\nApril 7\nNew Mexico\nJune 6\nNew Mexico\nApril 7\nSouth Dakota\nJune 6\nSouth Dakota\nApril 22\nNew Jersey\nJune 6\nNew Jersey\nApril 29"
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