Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Source Description
This file contains:
Record of a conversation between Colson and Harris RE: RN's upswing in recent polls. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/27/1972
Record of a conversation between Colson and John Becker RE: the state of the election in New England. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/2/1972
Record of a conversation between Colson and Harris RE: Vietnam related questions in polls, as well as the general perception of McGovern's economic policies and general voter trends. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/6/1972
Record of a conversation between Colson and Sindlinger RE: the total number of registered voters and their political preferences. The two also discuss Vietnam and the economy. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/3/1972
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26144573
label
WHSF: Contested, 3-45
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26144573
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 3-45
description
This file contains:
Record of a conversation between Colson and Harris RE: RN's upswing in recent polls. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/27/1972
Record of a conversation between Colson and John Becker RE: the state of the election in New England. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/2/1972
Record of a conversation between Colson and Harris RE: Vietnam related questions in polls, as well as the general perception of McGovern's economic policies and general voter trends. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/6/1972
Record of a conversation between Colson and Sindlinger RE: the total number of registered voters and their political preferences. The two also discuss Vietnam and the economy. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/3/1972
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
26144573
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
6d4748a7059334cd
ocrText
Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
3
45
10/27/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Record of a conversation between Colson
and Harris RE: RN's upswing in recent polls.
3 pgs.
3
45
11/2/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Record of a conversation between Colson
and John Becker RE: the state of the election
in New England. 3 pgs.
3
45
10/6/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Record of a conversation between Colson
and Harris RE: Vietnam related questions in
polls, as well as the general perception of
McGovern's economic policies and general
voter trends. Handwritten notes added by
unknown. 10 pgs.
3
45
10/3/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Record of a conversation between Colson
and Sindlinger RE: the total number of
registered voters and their political
preferences. The two also discuss Vietnam
and the economy. 7 pgs.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Page 1 of 1
BC
Conversation with Lou Harris, October 27, 1972
H: So the final would be 60-32.
ransacked the goddamn thing. I ran into
the other office because Teddy White's crew is in there. The key is
and remember, at best 1/3 of this was yesterday. The President' rating
on negotiating a settlement in Vietnam had been 39-54 negative and the
only rising slowly from a low of 32-69 negative. It is now 53-39 positive.
C: And it will go up again this weekend.
H: And McGovern is going up on the negative, mistake prone, too radical
he's up to 66 and the President's positives are going up too. His handling
of the economy has gone up too.
C: Lou will you be making it clear in there that only a third of the poll
caught the peace move
H: Actually I thought it would be out of date and the truth is, if anything,
it's more up to date than anything.
C: God, yes, it's a hell of a poll.
H: This will be big news.
C:
Yes
it
is.
If
it
goes
your last one was 25, this shows that Nixon gaining
again inthe last week of the campaign
H: And gaining substantially.
C: Isn't that marvelous.
H: And I would guess if it goes like this, the President could end up 65-35 now.
C: I think with the peace settlement he can. Now, Sindlinger has called here
this morning saying catastrophe, disaster
I didn't kno talk to him, but one
of my assistants did, "this is the worst news never, oh, my god, now the
Democrats won't be afraid to vote for McGovern, they've all been afraid to
vote for him because of his sell-out in Vietnam
" he has to be
H: I've told you this for two years. Peace is the best issue there is.
C: That's right and they' be talking peace for the last week of the campaign.
2.
H:
the Russians talked to Kosygin called in the North Vietnamese this
morning, did you know that?
C: Yes, and I'll tell you something else.
H: I doubt that had anything to do with my thing, but that guy went whistling
out of my place.
C: Im' not so sure.
€: I talked to
H: I want it done right.
C: I admire you for it. I rally do.
H: Tell the President I'm proud of him in this period.
C: And God is he appreciative of the help you've been. I'll tell you. I W
was sitting with him this morning and he said, what time, and I said 11,
so at 5 minutes of 11, he said, I've got an 11 meeting, do you suppose you
can find out now?
H: Well, I wanted to triple check this because I couldn't believe it.
C: Significant isn't it.
H: Yea, because you know the settlement will go right through the bloody
roof.
C: I really think it will.
H: I heard somebody from the McGovern camp call up this morning and
said Dutton and all the rest have deserted McGovern, he's completey isolated.
They just left the campaign.
C: You don't think there's apossibility of sympathy now for the guy?
H: I don't think SO. My guess is he'll get wild, temporal flaire and get worse.
C: And he'll say that we did this for political reasons and you, uniquely,
outside of maybe 6 or 7 of us here, you uniquely know that we were try ing to
figure out how to do this without being political.
3.
H:
becaus you were afraid it would be.
C: Exactly. You uniquely will know that . Outside of the President
H: I think Tuesday is a good time for it to come out, don't you?
C: I sure do.
H: And then I'll put the turn-around on Vietnam, but then I think it's worth
another piece on Thursday on Vietna, but I think part of that is, I'm just
going to print that 63% don't really give a shit about Thieu. I don't know
to,coalition.
if it will hurt or help, but plus the fact that the opposition
is higher than it's ever been
I think it's good, quite a piece.
C: I think you could do a good piece and do a piece on how the mood has
changed now under Vietnam. But you will make clear in this that only a third
of this
it doesn't fully catch the bounce.
H: I can see it now, say that this does not fully reflect the impact of the
impending piece.
C: Only partially reflects it. Really at most only 1/3.
H: It's all anticipation, but if anticipation was this great, you can imagine
what it is after
C: That's the point. It just catches a piece of it. God that's great.
Call me when you have the internals.
Conversation with John Becker, November 2, 1972
B: I think Herb looks in much better shape than Chaffee.
C: Do you think DeSimone will make it?
B: It would certainly seem so. I spent most of the day down there with
him today and
C: What do you figure on Pell?
B: Jees, I'm worried about that one and mainly because all the reports are
that Pell has got Chaffee out-organized by a mile and the race is close, the
p redominance of Democarats;changing
frankly
C; Lousy campaigner.
B: Terrible. A little boy blue riding around on a bicycle built for two.
C: He's an awful campaigner and always has been.
B: And quite frankly, when you close up in a room with him, he just does't
impress you that much, really. He's just a vapid Yankee, really, an aristocrat.
Christ, he just stands there
C: John Chaffeee is a swell fellow, period.
B: He doesn't have any of the qualities that Herb's got and Herb is not the
world's first genious, or anything like that.
C: Herb is smart as hell. Don't ever underestimate that guy.
B: He exudes you react when you're with Herb And they've done a good
job down there on Knowl. They really smoked him out on this war thing
and pulled his chain real good and they've had him screaming, defending his
war record for the last week and a half down there and not saying a damn thing
2.
about anything else and now he's not done much else but running around putting
spots on the air calling Herb a liar and this that and the other thing. And
I think they've got him in pretty massive disaray and Knowl is not gaining
at all. The last two weeks.
C: Excellent. I want Herb to win badly.
B: So do I. And it could be close, you just have to worry when there's all those
goddamn Democrats down there. But I would say
he looks to me to have quite
a good shot and.
C: And you think we'll take it? Oh, of course, we'll take it. With an 18 point
lead.
B: Yea, you ought to be alrightin Rhode Island. My feeling here is that you may
get beat a snoot at the wire here in Massachusetts.
C: Okay, so we lose Massachusetts close, we win Rhode Island, we're going
to sweep New Hampshire
probably carry Wes Powell in with us
B: I'm afraid so.
C: You really think so, don't you?
B: Well, I talked to Stu Lamprey and Stu
there are times when I have
confidence in him and sometimes I don't. He thinks that Powell has a real
shot. Now, I haven't got any pull up there because we went out of business
when Walter went out of business up there.
C: Maine will carry big with Margaret.
B: I guess. Margaret's supposed to be strong up there?
C: Yea, we're stronger than she is, so I'm told.
B: There haven't been any polls in Vermont that I know about since the end
of September, but we had the program very strong up there
C: You had a 70-20-10, so I wouldn't even give that one a thought.
B: Yea, the Hackett people have been getting a little worried, but I don't think
they ought to be.
3.
C: Connecituct is solid for us. God, I looked at that WCBS TV poll and it's
2 to 1.
B: In Connecticut?
C: Yes.
B: That's what
C: What's his name, the fellow we don't talk about?
B: My renigrade from the No-name reserach company that bastard.
C: He's got 2 to 1 and ORC had two to one, so I think Connectcut is a landslide.
B: Yea
C:
pick up four congressmen there.
BB: It would seem so. I don't know. You know, we could get hurt in the
Congressional delegation in Massachusetts.
C: I know it. That worries the hell out of me. We'll lose Peggy and
B: Peggy is all you've got unless Billy Weeks pulls it off.
C: I think he will.
B: He may. Brooke is
caled me today and wanted to know where I thought he
ought to put his marbels in terms of time and. he does a pretty good job for
these guys
C: He's a loyal son of a gun.
B: He really is.
C: Really cares about it.
B: He guys the television time and of course he's got pletmy of money to buy it
with, but all in all. he brings them right on and running around with Marty
and running around with Billy Weeks and doing the best he can with Cronin
and so
the 4th District is really a weirdy. I can't figure it out. I get the
feel right now that there's some movement with Linsky, definitely that's what
thepoll shows, but Gx
had Elliot down at his house about a week ago
I was down there and he had every goddamn conservative in the area and as a
consequence
Buck had in there and had a big show for Linsky, with Richardson
and trying to get the conservatives away from
Conversation with Lou Harris, October 6 1972
H;
but Jesus
this thing
I'd say the President's got two weeks on
Vietnam and it can work against him. You should thank your lucky stars
that McGovern has blown the issue.
C: You're saying that the issue could work against us?
H: Yea
I mean, it's like I told you, it's like quicksand. On the President's
own profile, it's still good, but there's a turn around on one key point and
that key point is "not kept his pledge to end U.S. involvement in the war in
Vietnam" 50-41. That was 44-46. It's right back where it was in July,
C: What was it up to at one point?
H: 46-44 he had kept his
C: Oh, I see. And now you're saying
H: Yep, plus another one which I did put in the column.
I can read you the
whole column, but I had to leven it out. It's a good. very fair column.
C: Well, the thrust of it is that there's no change.
H: That's right. That's the headline. Then under neath it I said that by
46-41 they think the President doesn't to deserve to win in a landslide, but
when you measure him off and "who do you trust most?", the President has
a 31 pt lead, not a 27 pt lead, and you take those certain to vote, the President's
got
a
63-32 pt lead. so I say, these two balance off, you see.
C: Oh, you mean the landslide question balances off against who do you trust
the most?
H: Yes.
C: Now, read me that again of those most likely to vote.
H: Certain to vote, 63-32, that's in the column too.
C: Jesus, as distinguished from 60-33.
H: In the big 8 states of the North, Massachusetts, New York,, Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illiniois, California. I left Texas out
Nixon 54-38
-- a 16 point lead. But hold on to your hat, I've got one
thing that scares me.
2.
C: Is that in your column, the big 8?
H: Yea. The big 8 and then the South which is 70-25
C: Unchanged, basically.
H: Yea, but here we go. The big shocker and I guarantee you I wont use
it because I know what I'm going with -- Democratic lead for Congress
has widened, it's 9 points now, it's exactly what it was in 68 48-39.
I'll go with that the following Monday, okay? And then on the following
Thursday, I'm going with the Watergate and the $10 million fund, that's
a wierd one
C: It shows it isn't affecting?
1
H: Yea, it is not. People see it a's politics
I don't want to hold you in
abeyance, I want to give you Vietnam, which worries the bejesus out of me.
This will not surface, may never surface, but I'll see, I can't guarantee you
it won't, but not for
probably
I'm now writing for the 165th and 19th and
my next poll will be the week of the 16th, so I'll have something the following
Monda and the following Thursday and then that Tuesday the 24th I'll have
the next wone. So it may never scome out. There's a whole Nixon profile
and a whole McGovern profile, there's an economic one a lot of stuff.
So I don't know if I will ever do this, but if I don't, in all conscience, I know
16lk I don't want to say I'll never print it. I want you to know it. Approval
of the bombing, only 46-44.
C: Now, that's down from what, Lou?
H: 55-32.
that's a 9 pt shift
it's fascinating. We asked a question that
we hadn't askedfor some time, but about Thieu? Suppose the only way to
get peace in Vietnam were if President Thieu of South Vietnam resigned
from office, would you favor or oppose such a mov e? Favor 63-13. Now
that's higher
it a back in May was 60-14 and then March
now listen
to these carefully. Would you favor a coalition government which included
a communist which was the only way to get peace in Vietnam? Favor 34,
oppose 49. That's the highest it's ever been in opposition.
C: Now, wait. Read the question once more.
H: Suppose the only way we could get peace in Vietnam were to agree to a
coalition government which included the Communists. Would you favor or
oppose such a coalition in Saigon? Favor 34, oppose 49.
C: That's inconsistent with the bombing.
H: Nope, nope. Next one is "do you feel the reease of the 3 prisoners of
war is a genuine bid for peace? Well, I'll tell you the whole question.
3.
The North Vietnamese released 3 American prisoners of war recently.
They released them.
anti-war
3 prisoners of war were a genuine
bid for peace in North Vietnam or a propaganda move? 78-10.
Wait til you get the whole story. Next question. Some U.S. prisoners
of war interviewed in NVN by Ramsey Clark and Jane Fonda were quoted
as saying that all the prisoners would be released if Senator Mcc overn
were elected President and President Nixon were defeated this November.
Do you think they actually said this or not?/
darn, it wasn't tabulated,
C
Do you believe if Senator M govern is elected, the prisoners of
war will be returned faster than if President Nixon is elected, return
slower, won't it make much difference? Return faster, 21%, slower, 12%
and won't make any difference, 16%, not sure 7%. Which really means
it won't make a goddamned bit of difference.
C: Which merely means that the public doesn't think it matters in terms of
getting the prisoners back.
H: That's right.
H: Now, what this adds up to is this. That the public is slowly but surely
getting fed up with the war again that they really take the President's position,
you see. In other words, fundamentally, they support the President's
position, but what they don't want is bombing over a long period of time.
They want the bombings if they work, you see, but if it's going to be
bombing, bombing, bombing in the indefinite future, they don't want it.
This is the same damn phenonmea I've seen over and over agaon on this
damn war where people run out of gas. In other words, as a people we
want action and action now.
C: They don't care which way you get it.
H: That's right. But, they're willing to dump Thieu, put the heat on.
I had a mining question I couldn't get. to get so much more else but I
suspect that's holding or going down, I don't know. But what I would say
is this is a warning flag that you've got about two weeks, maybe a month,
until the election.
C: Well, we have a more difficult problem than that, based on what you're
telling me.
H: No, let me add quickly, if the President came up with some damn coalition
I don't think they would give a damn.
they'd be happy with it, as long as it
settled it.
4.
C: Yea, but let me tell you our dilen ma and the reason why this poll
probabl y of all polls
the trial heat today that you put out is having that
a positive Nixon poll, in other words not showing erosion, showing that
Nixon's 28 pts is essentially unchanged, 27 doesn' matter, 26 would have
been he's edged up a little more, 25 would have been.
24 would have been
McGovern is still moving, 4 pts, 6 pts, 5 pts
last time
but having
only a one pt differe nce, in other words 28 pts or 27 pts
weighting
H:
heart failure because it turned out inthe waiking process, we work
weight by blacks and whites by age, and the first thing I heard, I was there
when we were doing it, low
high on young white and low on young blacks.
They've got to weight up the young blacks appreciably and I gulped. On the
m iddle aged group it's about right and then the older ones, oops, we're
way high on 50 and over blacks
and too low on whites. So, they just
lost out onthe age thing.
C: Well,
you were giving me heart failure this morning because on the
raw data, if it had gone one point the other way, it would have hurt us and
one point this way it helped us.
H: The sample
they get better and better.
C: Well, obviously, because' actually you're final result is very close
to your raw data.
H: Yep, you've really got it honed in now.
C: Well, let me tell you what gave me a heart attack.
C: I can tell you more when I see you, but what I'm really saying is
that it is not so much a question of how the war is going to end and what
the final resolution is going to be. It is a question of when and how and
that's why what you're putting out right now and the way in which the
media will interrupt it, probably has more to do with when and how than
from conditions in the battlefield. It's bizarre. The levers we've got
are all fine, except we put.
and this is some thing maybe I had better
talk to you about, because what you tell me runs counter to what
our
thinking was
H: They turn you down flat, and take their chances.
C: Nope, I'm not even thinking of that. If they say, Okay, well it's
October 25, our position is no dice
H: Until October 15 it's no dice. You say not,
C: No, what I m trying to say is that
H: You're saying that's the way it is right now.
C: What I'm saying, Lou, is basically
H: The President doesn't want to end it in the last week of the campaign
C: and make it look like it' even though it wouldn't be political.
H: I really don't think that's good judgment.
C: Well, it would be good judgement
H: It would be a whole lot better to do it before the 15th, but I would say
get it by the 25th
hell, if you could get it the day of the election, I'd
do it.
C: Well, you've got two options. You get it before the 15th or you do it
the week after the election.
H: Yea, but you dont get the benefit of the lelection.
C: You don't get the negative of it, but.
political
H: If it's a matter of principle, you say it's worth it to wait until afterwards,
and get,
you might lose 5 pts.
C: Well, see that's wher I'm going to need your advice this week because
6.
H: Don't sweat it out, I'm just read ng
C: Here's what I'm driving at Lou. Your origianl figures the origianl
stuff that you gave us, which I presented on charts to the Cabinet
supporting the bombing, opposing the coalition, supporting the mining,
all of those things, say to us, for Christ sakes, don't do something that
will be interrupted as a hasty settlement achieved to get it in before the
election which will be the old cyncial
H: That's running a little out of gas
C: Well, but see that's the important thing
H:
C: But what we don't have in our equation, Lou, is that side of it. In other
words, what we're looking at now is you cannot do it in the last three weeks
because if you try to do it in the last three weeks, you will be accused of
having contrived it for the purpose of the leection. That ain't the aase and
I can say that until I'm blue inthe face
H: But the other side contrived it for the lelection. But I think that's what
people would think. I really do. I think people think they know they can get
a better deal now than after Nixon wins. I really do.
C: That'x the thing we don't know.
H: Now, can I give you the Watergate. Fascinating. We repeated the
thing we had earlier, do you think the White House staff ordered the wire
tappers or not? 50-25 they think they did not, which hasn't budged an
inch. Do you think President Nixon.
C: 50-25 they think they did not.
H Right. Do you think President Nixon involved kn;wnig about the attempt
to wiretap, bug the Dem ocratic Headquarters? 66-16, exactly the same.
Do you feel that the break in of the Democratic Headquarters was poliical
spying, 70; 13 they say it was. Do you feel that wieretapping for political
purposes is a commonaoccurance or not? 57-25 it's a common occurance.
Do you feel that it's a basic violation of individual freedom or
not to put wiretaps in the other party's campaign headquarters? 84-9
they thinkit is a violation. And then, all in all, are you concerned about
the violation ov civil liberties involved in the Watergate affair and do you
think it's mostly politics? 26% concerned about liberties, 52% pdlitics.
How do you like that?
7.
C: It sure as hell is.
H: And I'm sure it's deadly accurate. I sure asked the right question.
What it is, basically is people are saying, Christ it's not right, but it
happens and those goddamn politicians, they're all alike. The most
devastating thing of McGovern
the new thing we've got. He seemed
to be a different type political leader before, but lately he's shown he's
just another politician promising
64-24 they favor that. So what
started an anti-politics figure has turned into a politician.
Unemployment looks a little better, prices a little worse.
C: By much?
H: No, 56-33
C: So you're really are
all we're fooling with at the moment
H:
50-37 there is not a recession, 52-33
you can see in the
President's profile, the same kind of slight fall. In other words, all
this charging by McGovern is taking it's toll, but also McGovern xxxxx
profile is getting worse too in many ways.
C: What about the personal confidence thing?
H; andxthat's worse.
C: Now that came back down to 57
H; 55-28, and now it's back to 58-31 and "wants to change too much" is
the same, 55. But then his "income redistribution too radical" 56 to 58
and makes too many mistakes goes from 61 and it was 59.
8.
H: Wrong to say he would abolish wage and price controls. that was 54-21,
it's now 60-22.
C: We'll hit him on that early next week.
H: WRong to say he would go to Hanoi and beg for the release of theprisoners
of war, it was 43-38, early September, and 48-33 late September,
52-34 now. Okay, but on the other hand he's gone up. Right to
expose profits on the grain deal, 53-15 and 64-14 right to point out
close ties between big business contributors xxxxx in the Republicans
and favors Nixon Adminstration, 61-21 and it was only 54-20.
Courage to say what he thinks even if it's unpopular gone up, 66-21
to 74-19. Fighter for tax reform.
help for workers, 50-34, up
high sense of integrity, up from 44-27 to 49-27. Deserves credit
for young people
but handling of Eagleton, down. It was 48-32
negative, it's now 5331 negative
C: It's more negative?
H: Yep. Appealing personality is down. It was 36-46 negative, it's now
38-49 negative. Stands for the right kind of change about the same 10
points on the minus side. Wants change too much,
but the point is the
guy
people are getting ambivalent on him in the sense that they think
he's right to be emphasizing corruption, but they think it's mostly
politics because they really have no trust in McGovern, and they also
I'm sure this is part of it, is these charges were made a year ago and
it had some substance. It's the old political role whatever you can
do in a non-election year is worth twice
and.
but therefore that's why
they say it's politics
but between the softening on Vietnam, the economy
just holding, the fact that people don't like these charges that are being
thrown around
they half believe it, I would say in the light of that, I
would change the issues in this election and hit him right over the head
on the economic thing which is really basicc.
C: Swinging at that this weekend.
H:
Vietnam settlement
shit, I'd take it the day before the election.
C: Well, you and I are going to meet on Tuesday, right?
H: Yep.
C: Well, we'll have some time to talk about it on Tuesday.
9.
H: You'll be out campaigning?
C: No, he'll be here. Next week, he's only going out on Thursday to
Atlanta. He'll be here all of next week. After I talk to him this weekend,
he may even want to chat with you himself.
H
That would be good, because I've got a good beat on it.
C: Ithink so too, from what you're telling me, but you've put a little
different cast
the last time his rating had dropped to 58. but really,
within the statistical
H; I haven't gotten the specific ratings
this is all taken on the phone.
C: It does say, Lou, that McGovern is hammering on the war has had
an impact
H: No, I don't think SO.
C: You just think it's the normal erosion.
H: You remember very well.
you asked me the question
can you'
put the squeeze on and I said he's got one more fierce sh ot and I'd go all
out on it, remember?
C: Yea, I do.
H: And that's what he's done.
C: Oh, my God, I remember we talked that weekend.
H: The next point in the future, I said to yo u then, you can run out of gas.
In other words, American people like short-term solutions, if they work.
The mining seemed great because it seemed.
there's noresponse, the
bombing though. I think there Mc G overn probably does do some damage
over times like kikex water over stone and then people are saying
actually,
I'm sure the reason for the fall, is they say well, maybe they say the goddamn
thing isn't working. We're very pragmatic
C: I do have to say, Lou
there were 58-31 and now 59-33, so that's no
change.
H. Union was 55-34, it's now 54-38. a little shift. Democrats are a little
more McGovern. They were
47-43, then 48-41, McGovern now they' re
53-40. But indepdents holds, 61-27, they were 62-26.
C: McGovern's gained with Democrats and with blacks. Of cour se those
10.
two would overlap a little. Jewish vote change
H: Yea, but that's a small base. 58-33. and I wouldn't be surprised
I think he may end up with 60-40 split.
C: That would be tremendous. Well, we must have gained somewhere
oh, back with the young people.
H: That's right, a little in the South no, by God, you lost 3 there with
78-22. You gained in the West, went from 19 to 26, but that can be just
articiifcal.
C: Yea, when your samples
H: You gain in the big cities a little bit, it's strange where the blacks
turned. Sububrs, towns about the same, rural gained a little. But,
gained with the college edu cated which was 59-33, now 62-32
really
great marginal trade-offs. Gained with over $15,000, 66-27, 71-24,
gained with the Repblicans, was 89-7, 91-7. So, it's basically
you
couldn't have
these are taken with totally different sample points,
from the last one.
C: You meanyou're two were?
H: Yea. I feel good about it
I SHEE sure think it makes Gallup look
like an ass the way he bounces around from poll to poll. I know why,
because like we do, different sample points because obviously he
doesn't have very good sampels.
C: Well, he's going into his precinct, key precinct analysis now. We're
told that and that he's been in the field this week, so he probably
H: He may come out this weekend?
C: No, he's already out this Sunday that I have not seen, but you'll beat
him again. From what I hear it sounds like you'll have two days on him.
I don't know what he'll have, but I was told that he was in this field starting
Wednesday and is going to be in the field through Sunday.
H: I'll bet he comes up with 26 or 28, something like that.
C: Wait,
oh, yea, you're 27, he'll have to come up with either 26 or 28.
I don't know, you've been right on the last
H: Looks like 27 again. We'll soon find out. Certain to vote, runs 82%
of the sample, rural 76, 18-29, 74%, 8th grade educated,
77, blacks 70
Conversation with Al Sindlinger, October 3, 1972
S: I've got something interesting for you. I've got 12, 522 interviews
from August 25 to the 2nd of October and you've picked up about 7 million
Republicans. We're now
this has happened in the last month
people
when we ask them what their party preference is, they say, well I
guess since I'm goingto vote for Nixon I might as well call myself a
Republican to justify it. So, we've now got 48, 292, 000 Democrats and
37, 232, 000 Republicans and 41, 090, 000 independents and these are mostly
males, well, females too, but mostly males who are goin g to justify
their vote by calling themselves a Republican. Now, what I started to
tell you was I'm taking this group of interviews because Newsweek has a
story today which they don't understand what the hell. the right hand
doesn't know what the hell the left hand does in that damn place, because
the business department understands completely our techniques. Did you
see the Newsweek story?
C: Yea.
S: I haven't seen it. Novak called it to my attention. So, what I've done is
order a tabulation of the hard to reach VS. the easy to reach and from the
preliminary counts we're going to get about a 28 or 29 spread on the easy
to reach and then get a 50 point spread on the hard to reach. But you notice
our undecideds are coming up.
C: Yea, why is that Al?
S: That's the POW thing. Our undecided are coming back up and they're
coming back up in the hard to reach people who were with the original
McGovern supporters.
C: Yea, but you see what happens is that I look at the McGovern in your
lastest 1000 interviews
S: We've got 81 million planning to vote now.
ci
Oh, I see, more people planning to vote , but they don't know how. Oh,
I see
see, you've got Nixon off 2 1/2 points but you've got McGovern off
2.8 points.
S: Yea, but not in the projected number. The numbers would be ab out the
same.
C: So, there's no slippage here for either one of us.
2.
S: No, because you've got more people planning to vote undecided, which
is what I've been waiting for.
C: Well, let me ask you this question. In this latest survey #52, 1328
voters, he's got a very even 3 to 1 spread. 40 points between us exactly.
Nixon off 2 something, McGovern off 2 something. But you're saying that
they're really not off, that it's
it's just an increase in the total number
planning to vote, but
S: With an increase in the undecided. This is why you should watch the
numbers as well as thepercents.
C: You're right because we've been going up steadily in the numbers
McGovern isn't.
S: You see, this is 81 million and we should be getting 86, if 62% is going
to be the turnout like it was in the past. Now, I noticed in the other poll,
if you looked at the Gallup poll, I don't have the figures, if you take his
total sample and the number of people interviewed who said they were
registered and he makes his projections on this, he's got a voter pretense
of over 100 million which is impossible.
C: I follow you. That's why your data is a hell of a lot better than his.
S: Now, the whole question.
I'm getting more and more convinced that
all the pollsters are going to be wrong this year because it's more and more
McGovern does things, the POW thing particularly, he is constantly shaking
people up. Making them mad. The POW thing is making most people mad.
It's bringing the hawks out and this is where the Democratic complacency
was. So,
C: So what you're saying is that he will bring out people to vote against
him and the pollsters are going to be wrong in the margin will be bigger
S: What I'm afraid is that in bringing people out to vote against him, they'll
vote straight Democratic figuring that their ticket.
their vote isn't going
to count, that the other people are going to elect Nixon. This is what I'm
afraid of.
C: Well, Nixon has got to be able to say something during the campaign
that persuades them that they'd better cast their vote for him.
S: And it's got to be just about 2 weeks before, not much before then.
Don't do it yet.
3.
C: A1, one thing that has me troubled here, because I can't figure the
answer to it out, so anytime I. my instincts don't give me an immediate
answer, then I get bothered. McGovern in the last two days has just been
wildly strident. Did you see him on television last night? I know you don't
watch very much.
S: I just happened to see it last night, I saw Agnew right after him.
C: Yea. But did you ever hear of such extreme stuff that this is the most
corrupt government and the most corrupt nation and God, Almighty, I
don't think people believe that do they?
S: No, that's my point. What he's doing
it is absolutely incredible
he does not understand human nature at all. Now, he's getting dirty and
people are resetning this.
C: Are you finding that in your answers?
S: Oh, yes. You see the first thing was on the negative side, why won't
I haven't and don't plan to publish this until after the election because this
would give the Democrats x too much information. So what I'm going to do
is tell you and I'll publish it later as a paper or something. But, on the
negative side, with Eagleton still on the ticket, all the negatives were in
the direction of radicalism, too far left and the share the welath thing and
that's why the stock market went down. Then, from there it moved to, he
is indecisive, he doesn't know what he's doing and now it's moving to,
well, this guy's impossible, I think he's nuts, unbelieveable and there's
a difference between unbelievable and undecided or indecisive. Now, he's
becoming unbelieveable. Why doesn 't somebody tell him? The more he
does this and themore you keep quiet
let Agnew do it, let somebody
else do it. Don't let the President get involved
C: Oh, hell no.
S: In this business of radicalism, you see, the Watergate thing never came
through strong, the wheat thing wax temporary, that's just politics, all
politics are dirty, so what. It S the best of the two and keep it that way.
C: But, you're point to me, if I understand you correctly this is very
imprtant to us because we have to make some decisions today on this,
your point to me if I understand, is that when he strikes out like he did
last night, the most corrupt the most venile the most horrible
S: This is why the undecideds are coming out.
4.
C: Why ?
S: Well, because he's getting so unrealistic, he sounds like he's fighting
mad and doesn't know what he's talking about. He's incredible. There's
a difference between incredible and undecisive and now he's becoming
incredible, undecisive is gone now, he's just incredible. And when he
says
this came through on the monitor last night -- you ought to come
up this weekend I think --
C: I might.
S:
when he charges Nixon about not being flexible, when he also said
which we picked up last night, something to the effect that when he sees
something he'll change, but by God, people are now saying, if he got
involved in an atomic war, it would take him two weeks to push the button
and the POW thing is the worst thing he could have done. Now
C: And they really are associating him with that, huh?
S: Sure. The word Clark is coming through, what he was doing over there.
That's coming through. Now, if the North Vietnamese
did you see Reston's
column on Sunday on how the North Vietnamese are underestimating
American public opinion?
C: Y ea.
S: Well, if the North Vietnamese escalate this war, what are the chances
of that?
C: Deescalating it?
S: No, escalating it.
C: Oh. They might.
S: That would be the worst thing they could do. That would really solidify
people. So, yo"'ve got to play this about two or three weeks before. Don't
do anything yet. I thought a week or so ago that maybe you ought to start
but not when he's talking like he is now. Just let him alone.
C: Last night, give me the general tenor of the comments you got on the phone
last night because last night they wald have responded to what they saw on
TV last night.
S: Let me get some sheets. I would say
McGovern made a little strength
a couple weeks ago and this was when he was on the economy. And that's
5.
where he should be if he wanted to make strengths, but the last couple of
days
I just went over and talked to the coders, in the last couple days,
almost
well, two weeks ago hardly anybody was giving the war, his
negative
Vietnam stand, as a negative reason and most of the
reasons
on Nixon were the economy, high prices, food, meat and so forth. And
the wheat deal is coming through. That's dropped out almost completely
now and the food thing has dropped out negatively almost completely.
C: You mean the food prices isn't bothering anybody?
income
S: No, because our household/index has gone up, so that's coming down.
It's still there, but it's the number one issue on the economy, but it's
not like it was. But since Thursday, almost all those negatives on McGovern
are his stand on the war. In other words, he apparently has figured out
that this is the key issue and as long as he goes onto the war issue, then
that's when he makes people mad and coupled with the pilots being released,
this has further made him mad, this is why our
C: But you got the corruption issue last night.
S: The report on.
they're not talking about it. It's incredible. They're
not talking about thecorruption issue, they don't believe it.
C: Fascinating.
S: Now, all the mcgovern people who are negative on Nixon, it's. they're
playing back the corruption angle. They've dropped the price, the've
gone from the economic Nixon to the corruption and his handling of the war.
The negatives on
now have turned away from the economy and
they're negative on McGovern because of his stand on the war.
C; What are they negative on Nixon on?
S: Now? On corruption, but thoe are all the McGovern supporters, so
he's not gaining any votes, he's just telling the people they're going to
vote for and what they want to hear and he's agitating other people by
making the undecided go up. And the way to come back the corruption
angle, is , well this guy's talking wild. Why don't we talk about some
issues, but don't get him on the economy because that's where he'll make
some strength. He's incredible. Where was he whenhe was talking
about the corruption deal?
C: Here in WashingtonX.
S: Was this for Tv or a speech?
6.
C: He spoke before the UPI Editors and
the real question which you
can't tell is how is that will that bring undecided voters into his column
or cut into Nixon's support. youre judgment is
S: I'd say no. That is a low issue on the totem pole. If I thought it was
the other way around I'd sure tell you.
C: Oh, I have no worry about that. He should be talking the economy,
taxes
S: If I were advising McGovern, I would talk abou the economy, the wage
and price freeze, I wuld talk
apeal to the pocketbook, which he started
to do and then he left it. That's when he made some progress. If he
you see, I'm convinced, I had a long talk with Jerry Ge en e the other
day who had a long talk with Caddell and also some of the boys at U.S. S News
and I gave them somequestions to ask Caddell because I was trying to ferret
out what his P pining his conclusion on and it's quite obvious from these
two indepdent sources who led out in xxx different directions and he is
telling McGovern that the Americans are fed up, they want a change, and
he's telling McGovern that Americans are fed up with the war
well,
that is correct. Two out of 10 people
want us to quit and I've kgot the
hawk and dove question back on again, so I'm making some cross tabs on
that, but that is not the point. The point is wewant an honorable way out of
the war and people do not want a change, they want a change away from
the changers.
C: You gave my gal the percentages, but did you give her the actual
totals, or you don't have thoseyet?
S: I'll give them to you.
C: The totals should be more iportant than the figures.
S: What is your number one reason for not wanting McGovern? This is
last nights
the way his handling the war, the propaganda with the
prisoners, his personality is bad, but this war issue has got me bugged,
I just don't like this priosoner thing, don't like his ideas, don't like what
he stands for, I dont like the prisones, I don't like what he's involved in
in North Vietnm. Here's one that called him a radical again, bu t they
bring in the war. He'll put so many people out of work with hisdefense
cuts, that nobody will know what the story is going to be
that is
the general tenor. The thing is that the war issue has come up again
because
he's
made
it. keep quiet on the priosners which you 're doing
because he's handling that one beautifully. When Howard was here, that
Sunday night, and the Saturday night before, and for the Monday and Tuesday
after he was here, we were getting some complaints by Republicans that
6.
you ought to campaign more and thats completely dropped out. Haven't
heard it at all in the last couple days.