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    "description": "This file contains:\n\nCopy of memo from Colson to Magruder and Flemming re: Illinois political situation. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/9/1971\n\nTranscript of conversation between Colson and Dave Bradshaw re: Illinois political situation, state tickets. Includes some handwritten marks. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 12/6/1971\n\nFrom Colson to Haldeman re: conversation between Lou Harris and Larry O'Brien about '72 Democratic prospects, presidential candidates, strategy. Colson suggests response strategies. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/5/1971",
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        "Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection",
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    "url": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/45/1446/26144645/content/presidential-libraries/nixon/RN-RET/2546065/Contested-Box-4/Contested-04-05.pdf",
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    "ocrText": "Richard Nixon Presidential Library\nContested Materials Collection\nFolder List\nBox Number\nFolder Number\nDocument Date\nNo Date\nSubject\nDocument Type\nDocument Description\n4\n5\n12/9/1971\nCampaign\nMemo\nCopy of memo from Colson to Magruder and\nFlemming re: Illinois political situation. 4\npgs.\n4\n5\n12/6/1971\nCampaign\nOther Document\nTranscript of conversation between Colson\nand Dave Bradshaw re: Illinois political\nsituation, state tickets. Includes some\nhandwritten marks. 4 pgs.\n4\n5\n8/5/1971\nCampaign\nMemo\nMemo from Colson to Haldeman re:\nconversation between Lou Harris and Larry\nO'Brien about '72 Democratic prospects,\npresidential candidates, strategy. Colson\nsuggests response strategies. 3 pgs.\nWednesday, August 18, 2010\nPage 1 of 1\nPol. misc 12\nDecember 9, 1971\nMEMORANDUM FOR:\nJEB MAGRUDER\nHARRY FLEMMING\nFROM:\nCHARLES COLSON\nSUBJECT:\nIllinois Political Situation\nI have just had an interesting report from a Democrat in Illinois\nwho I regard very highly. He tells me the following with respect\nto the Illinois state ticket. He prefaced his remarks by saying\nthat he has known all candidates except one, the new position of\nComptroller, for 15 to 20 years so has had relatively good exposure\nto the situation.\nDoesn't think Roman Pucinski who is on the Democratic ticket\ncan beat Percy, but that he will probably give him a better race\nthan anybody else. They are each going to be eating into the other\nand they're going to cause a lot of crossing back and forth. Obviously\nPercy is going to be able to eat in to certain liberal elements over on\nthe Democratic side; on the other hand, Pucinski, both in his voting\nrecord and in a lot of things he's done back here, is going to get over\nand eat into the Republican side, on the conservative, because that's\nabout where he's been. Pucinski's been kind of somewhat of a Percy\nto the Democratic side of the fence, but he's doing a very low key\njob as far as remarks go so far as television, playing it very smart.\nFirst keep in mind that he's a former newspaper man, having worked at\none time with the Chicago Sun Times, so he's probably going to get\nall the newspapers, even possibly the Tribune, because he's been in\nvery good shape with them. But secondly, he knows how to handle the\npress and he's been getting good press lately and coming on television\nwith a very subdued, underdog approach which is coming over very well\nout here.\nPaul Simon, who's the Lt. Gov, is the guy that will probably beat Ogilvie\nbadly. The Sun Times poll in Chicago, taken about a month ago, shows\nOgilvie way under him everywhere, including the 30 townships which are\nso important in Cook County. He is a very strong candidate.\n2.\nNeil Hardian, who's the candidate for Lt. Gov. is a very youthful\nguy. He used to be AA to Daly, he is now the ward committeeman\nin the 49th Ward on the Northside of Chicago. He's a very affable\nguy, young, he handles himself well. He's on the ticket because\nobviously Simon is not really a Daly man and Daly has put Hardigan\nin Paul's back pocket to watch the store down in Springfield and,\nkeep him advised of the premises. Hardigan is a good candidate.\nThe Attorney General slot went to a guy by the name of Tommy Lyons.\nLyons is a State Senator. He was first elected in about '64 out in\nthe Northwest side, was defeated the next time out, came back again\nand was reelected. He's done a good job in the Senate, is the son of\na former well-known police captain in Chicago and is an affable guy\nand a reasonably good lawyer. It is doubted very much that he can\nbeat Bill Scott. Assuming that Scott is told to run for Attorney General,\nand doesn't go up and run for Congress in the new 10th District.\nBut, Scott is strong, he's got the ecology issue, he's used it well,\nhasn't made any mistakes and Scott's strong point is that he knows he's\nnot a good lawyer and he's hired in good talent. As it stands now, Scott\nwould certainly beat him.\nAt the Secretary of State level is Mike Howlett. Howlett is in his 50s,\nhe's been 3 terms auditor of Illinois on the Democratic side, he is\nprobably one of the best known politicians this state has ever had. The\nday he was first elected in 1960, the next day he started out downstate\nmaking speeches and he's never stopped. He wanted to be Governor,\nhe knew he wasn't going to get it and he's a very, very strong candidate.\nIt is doubted whether any Republican could beat him for Secretary of\nState. Now they are talking about putting Kohorski up which is probably\na bad mistake, but that's the way Ogilvie's going; Howlett ought to take\nhim easy. Allen Dixon and Kohorski ran against each other for Illinois\nState Treasurer and Dixon beat him, but by a small margin. Howlett\nis very well known in Cook County because he's originally from Chicago,\nbut after a term and a half or two terms he moved to Springfield, so he's\ngot both the upstate and downstate side covered very well and Howlett\nhas probably talked in every Veterans of Foreign Wars, gymnasium and\nYMCA in the state of Illinois. Very strong candidate.\nThe guy for the new Comptroller position was put on for Illinois strictly\nto give some downstate balance because they are heavy top-side in Cook\nCounty. It is a very heavy Catholic ticket and the balance probably won't\nreally mean much one way or the other.\n3.\nI would say that Percy and Scott would survive. I would think the rest\nof the ticket would go down the drain. But, I think Tom Houser who is\nNixon's campaign manager, is a very bad mistake. He's a nice guy but\ndefinitely not heavy enough to pull all of the strings together. Others\nwere pushing John Aldorfer who is assistant to Secretary Stans, for the\nSecretary of State spot. Ogilvie wouldn't go for him. Aldorfer would\ndefinitely have helped Nixon, helped the ticket. Aldorfer withdrew\nand they then turned around and immediately named him downstate\nchairman for Nixon which was a mistake because Bob Blair, who was\nthe Speaker of the House of Representatives out there and Henry Hyde\nwho is the majority leader in the House, would have taken a co-chair-\nmanship with Houser and would have run the downstate campaign.\nBob Blair would have because he's from downstate, Henry Hyde is\nfrom Chicago and we would then have them lead in to all of the House\nand Senate districts which would have been the way to go. Blair now\nfeels he wants to sit on his hands out here and I don't blame him.\nAll of the candidates on the ticket are well liked. There's going to be\na good deal of harmony in there. No pluses at all. Hopefully the\neconomy will be in such a condition that Nixon in no way has to tie\nhimself to Ogilvie. It will be a disaster if he does. Hopefully also,\nPercy will need him and he won't need Percy. If that happens it\nwill be a utopia for everybody and, of course, it indicates what his\nstrength will be in other states. The ticket is a strong one. There\nhasn't been a stronger one put together in a long time.\nWe must remember, on ticket splitting, that Paul Simon is a Democratic\nLt. Gov. He's the only one who survived in the Ogilvie race and\nstrangely enough he's the first time they have ever had a Republican\nGovernor and a Democratic Lt. Gov, so obviously he had one helluva\nlot of cross-over votes to him. I think there will be a lot of people\nthat will vote for Nixon who will then cross over and vote for Simon\nand I don't know whether if they vote for Simon they will cross over\nand vote for Nixon. It used to be a state where they didn't split; it\nsplits very heavy now; the machines are prone for that, they're con-\nstructed for that and this time there is going to be a helluva lot of\nticket splitting.\nFor instance, that's why people who vote for Paul Simon for Governor\nwill cross over and vote for Bill Scott for Attorney General. They will\nthen cross over and vote for Mike Howlett for Secretary of State over a\nguy like Kohorski and anybody else that the Republicans would pick up.\n4.\nOne of the big things the President's got going for him is that Daly\nlikes him and Daly doesn't take any pop shots at him. He likes\nhim and that's a plus.\nPucinski on the other hand will be interesting. Apparently he swears\nup and down that he doesn't want to lose his seniority from his district\nand probably what they've told him is that they will put somebody in\nto hold it and he can get the district back if he loses, but then he's\nlost his seniority. But it will depend on who the Democratic Presidential\ncandidate is as to how he picks what tact be will use and it may very\nwell be a plus for Nixon because Pucinski is very, has been very,\nconservative out in the district.\nConverstion with Dave Bradshaw, December 6, 1971\nB:\npreface my remarks by saying this, that of the entire Democratic\nticket here, Chuck, except for one guy who's running for a new position\nknown as Comptroller created by our Constituion last year, is a guy from\ndown in Indiana, a dean of a small school I never heard of and neither did\nanyone else, but the rest of the ticket I've known all of them for at least\n15 and some of them 20 years, so I've got some reasonably good exposure\nto these guys. Now, Pucinski out here, I don't think he can beat Percy,\nbut he's probably, will probably give the guy a better race than anybody\nI know. They are each going to be eating into the others and their going to\ncause, I think, a lot of crossing back and forth. Obviously Percy is going\nTO BE able to eat in to certain liberal elements over on the Democratic\nside; on the other hand, Pucinski, both in his voting record and in a lot\nof things he's done back here, is going to get over and eat into theRepublican\nside of, on the conservative, because that's about where he's been.\nPucinski's been kind of somewhat of a Percy to the Democratic side of the\nfence. But he's doing a very low key, I shouldn't say a campaign, but his\nremarks so far on television, I think he's playing it very smart. First\nkeep in mind that he's a former newspaper man having worked at one time\nwith the Chicago Sun Times, so he's probably will have as a former\nnewspaper man, I'll be surprised if he doesn't get all of the newspapers\neven possibly the Tribune, because he's been in very good shape with them.\nBut secondly, he knows how to handle the press and he's been getting good\npress lately and he's coming on television with a very subdued, underdog\napproach which is coming over very well out here. Now, secondly, Paul\nSimon who's the Lt. Gov. out here, is the guy that I told you about that I\nfelt would beat Ogilvy badly and the Sun Times poll out here taken about a\nmonth ago shows Ogilvy way under him everywhere, including the 30 town-\nships which are so important here in Cook County. So Paul is a very\nvery strong candidate. Neil Hardigan, who's the candidate for Lt. Gov.,\nis a very youthful guy. He used to be AA to Daly, he's now the ward\ncommitteeman in the 49th Ward on the Northside of Chicago. He's a very\naffable guy, young, he handles himself well. He's on the ticket because\nobviously Simon is really not a Daly man and Daly has put Hardigan in\nPaul's back pocket to watch the store down in Springfield and, you know, keep\nhim advised in the premises. But Neil is a good candidate. The Attorney\nGeneral slot went to a guy by the name of Tommy Lyons. Tommy is a\nState Senator, he's, was first elected in about '64 out in the Northwest side,\nwas defeated the next time out, came back again and was reelected. He's\ndone a good job in the Senate, he's the son a former well-known police\n2.\ncaptain here in Chicago and is an affable guy and a reasonably good lawyer.\nI doubt very much whether he can beat Bill Scott. Assuming that Scott,\nwho I believe is meeting with the President today, is told to run for Attorney\nGeneral, and doesn't go up and run for Congress ;in this new 10th District\nhere. But Scott in there is strong, he's got the ecology issue, he's used\nit well, he hasn't made any mistakes and Scott's strong point is that he knows\nhe's not a good lawyer and he's hired in good talent But I doubt that\nLyons could beat him and I think if, as it stands now, I would say that Scott\nwould certainly beat him. At the Secretary of State level you've got Mike\nHallett. Now, Mike is in his 50's, he's been 3 terms auditor of Illinois\non the Democratic slate, he is probably one of the best known politicians\nHowlet? ?\nthis state has ever had. I remember the day when he was first elected\nin '60, the next day he started out down state making speeches andhe's\nnever stopped. He wanted to be Governor, he knew he wasn't going to get\nit and he's a very very strong candidate very strong. I doubt whether\nany Republican could beat him for Secretary of State. Now they're talking\nabout putting Koharski up which I think is a bad mistake, but that's the\nway Ogilvy's going, I would say Hallett ought to take him easy. I would\nthink that he would beat him. As you may recall, Allen Dixon and Koharski\nran against each other for Illinois State Treasurer and Dixon beat him but\nby a small margin. I would think that Hallett who's very well known\nin Cook County because he's a originally from Chicago, Chuck, but after\nabout a term and a half or two terms he moved to Springfield, so he's got\nboth the upstate, downstate side covered very well and I would say that\nMike Hallett probably talked in every Veterans of Foreign Wars gymnasium\nYMCAin the state of Illinois. Very strong candidate. The guy for this\nnew Comptroller spot was put on for Illinois strictly to give some downstate\nbalance because we're heavy top side up here in Cook County. We're\nheavy Catholic in this ticket and I don't think that is going to really mean\nmuch one way or the other but I would say that Percy and Scott would\nsurvive. I would think the rest of the ticket would go down the drain and\nthat's how I see it out here. But I think that, you know I've had some input\nin talking with Runnsfeld, Tom Houser out here who is Nixon's campaign\nmanager, I think I've indicated to you, Chuck, I think that's a very bad\nmistake, he's a nice guy but definiely not heavy enough to pull all of the\nstrings together. Clem and some others were pushing John Aldorfer who\nyou know is assistant to Stans for the Secretary of State spot, Olgilvy\nwouldn't go for him, Aldorfer definitely would have helped Nixon, helped\nthe ticket. Aldorfer withdrew and they then turned around and immediately\nnamed him downstate chairman for Nixon which I think was a mistake because\nI had Bob Blair who was the Speaker of the House of Representatives out here\nand H enry Hyde who's the majority leader in the House, would have taken a\nco-chairmanship with Houser and would have run the downstate campaign;\nBob Blair would have because he's from down state, Henry Hyde is from\nChicago and we then would have got ourselves lead in to all of your House\nand Senate districts which in my judgment would have been the way to go.\n3.\nBlair feels now he wants to sit on his hands out here and I don't blame\nhim and that to me was a bad move, but these guys, all the pros know\nwhat they're doing and us amateurs don't. But anyway, that's where it's\nat, Chuck, that gives you a run down on how that state ticket looks.\nC: I ppreciate it. Tell me how this cuts the President or does it, which\nway?\nZ\nIt hurts him in that's one of the strongest Democratic tickets I've\nseen fielded out here. Number one, all of the candidates on that ticket\nare well liked. There's going to be a good deal of harmony in here. It's\nno pluses in my judgment at all. Hopefully the economy will be in such a\ncondition that Nixon in no way has to tie himself to Olgilvy. That'll be a\ndisaster if he does just a disaster. Hopefully also, Percy will need him\nand he won't need Percy. If that happens that will be a utopia for everybody\nand of course it indicates what hiis strength will be in other states, but\nthis ticket is a strong, strong Democratic ticket, very strong. I haven'et\nseen as good a one put together out here in a long time. You know, there's\nalways been a couple of spots that were weak.\nC:- But is Illinois one of the states that sometimes people like to do a lot\nof ticket splitting and if they have sort of a moderate or independent or\nRepublican, moderat Republican, then he figures well I'll vote for Nixon\nbecause I can balance myself and vote for a Democrat for a Governor, I'll\nvote for Democrat for Governor and therefore, you know\nB: Yea, well keep in mind this, which is very important Chuck, Paul Simon\nis a Democratic Lt. Gov. He's theonly one who survived in the Olgivy race\nand strangely enough he's the first time we've ever had a Republican Gov\nand a Democratic Lt. Gov. So obviously he had one helluva lot of cross-\nover votes to him. I think there will be a lot of people that will vote for\nNixon who will then cross over and vote for Simon and I don't know whether\nif they vote for Simon will they cross over and vote for Nixon if you follow\nme, but we used to have a state here that didn't split it splits heavy\nnow, you know, the machines are prone for that, they're constructed for\nthat and I think this time you're going to have ahelluva lot of split voting.\nFor instance, that's why you for instance people who vote for Paul Simon\nfor Governor will cross over and vote for for Bill Scott for Attorney general\nI think they'l then cross back and vote for Mike Hallett for Secretary of\nState over a guy like Koharski or anybody else I can think that the Republicans\nwould pick up. But it's a damn strong ticket. Ithink one of the big things\nthat the President's got going out here is that Daly likes him and Daly doesn't\ntake any pop shots at him. He likes to cut of his gip (?) and that's a plus.\nNow, Pucinski on the other hand, will be interesting. I talked with Roman\n4.\nten days ago; he called me on something else. He swore up and down he\ndidn't want to lose his goddamned seniority from his district and probably\nwhat they 've told him is that they're going to put somebody in to hold it\nand he can get the district back if he loses, but for Christ sake, he's lost\nhis seniority. That's what happened when Yates ran against Dirksen out\nhere. And. but Roman is a kind of a guy that I think it will depend a lot\non who the hell the Democratic candidate is for President as to what kind\nof a tact Puc iinski will take, but it may very well be because you see I\nconsider Pucinski a plus for Nixon because Roman is very, has been very\nconservative out in that goddamned district. And I think that that is a plus\nfor the man, Chuck, having Pucinski on the ticket.\nEYES ONLY\nEYES ONLY\nAugust 5, 1971\nMEMORANDUM FOR:\nH.R. HALDEMAN\nFROM:\nCHARLES COLSON\nSUBJECT:\nLou Harris\nLou Harris rode down on the plane from New York yesterday with\nLarry O'Brien. O'Brien talked to him like the old confidant that\nhe once was. According to Harris, O'Brien made the following\npoints:\n1. The early runners, McGovern, Bayh, etc., are all dead. Scoop\nJackson is picking up some support but is making a mistake by\nputting all of his eggs in one basket, i.e. Florida. O'Brien\nbelieves that even though Jackson has Holland and Smathers\nworking for him, Muskie will get Chiles and Askew and Muskie\nwill win the Florida primary.\n2. Muskie has a big leg up and is improving his lot with the pros;\nhe has picked up some very effective regional coordinators.\n3. Jackson's one hope is that the defense issue will come back\nhard. O'Brien believes that in fact it will but he still won't be\nable to make a strong race.\n4. Teddy is not out of it \"by any means\". His problem is that he\nwill have to make a decision next January on the California pri-\nmary. He probably, according to O'Brien, will not go in (Harris\nhas it from Steve Smith that Kennedy probably will go into\nCalifornia). If he doesn't go in, according to O'Brien, Muskie\nwill win the nomination unless he \"commits a terrible goof\".\n5. The one candidate over whom O'Brien feels he has no control is\nGene McCarthy. O'Brien considers him a son of a bitch, a\nspoiler and a sorehead who is still mad at the guys who did him\nin in 1968. Whoever the candidate is (with on exception) he will\nstay in and run on a fourth party ticket; he's especially irked\nat Muskie and Humphrey and would love to stay in the race if\neither of them are the nominee.\ni\n6. The one exception is if Teddy were nominated; for some curious\nreason he does not want to block Teddy. O'Brien says that Teddy's\nman, Dave Burke, now works for Howard Stein and this could be\nbehind it. O'Brien considers a McCarthy fourth party candidacy\nas the biggest danger the Democrats face next year. He also says\nthat McCarthy is a \"money\" man who will run if he thinks he can\nmake something out of it, but he won't unless he has financial\nbacking and there is some money in it for him personally.\n7. Humphrey will try but can't make it. He'll never quit trying and\nwill go into California.\n8. Lindsay will become a Democrat in mid-August, but will not run\nfor the Presidency.\n9. O'Brien feels that the economy is the only issue that the Democrate\nhave. He simply cannot understand why the President has not used\nselective wage and price controls. This would cut the legs out\nfrom the Democrate and take away their only issue. He considers\nthat all the \"dove\" candidates are dead and that the President has\ncompletely taken over the \"peace& issue. No Democrat can profit\npolitically in the foreign affairs field, but they can win on the\neconomy unless the President pulls the rug out and does some\nspectacular things, which O'Brien feels the President is entirely\ncapable of doing. As he puts it, \"it's all in the President's control.\nBut, I don't understand why he hasn't done it\".\n10. O'Brien is not concerned at all about money. He has no intention of\npaying off the $9 million debt, $800, 000 of which is owed to Daley\n(who is very unhappy about it). The Committee collected $1. 7 million\non their dinner, they will spend it all this year but Strauss is doing an\nexcellent job and thinks that he can raise the funds needed for a\nPresidential campaign next year without any difficulty.\n11. O'Brien believes that Texas was a fluke in 1960 and 1968 and that the\nDemocrats should clearly write it off for 1972. He sees no chance\nof winning it but he does believe that they can win Ohio, Illinois and\nNew Jersey. He, therefore, believes that California will be the\nswing state in the election. He thinks that the \"Nixon South\" is gone\nas far as the Democrats are concerned, that they might pick up one\nor two border states but that's all and they need Wallace in the race\nto deny us the deep south. If Wallace were not in, they would lose\nthe entire south.\n12. O'Brien's attitude is guardedly optimistic. He said as he moves\naround the country he finds that the economy is really biting people\nand that If the President does not do something fairly significant\nand If the Democrats play to this issue alone, they can win, He is\nvery cautious in his outlook, however, and is extremly worried\nabout the McCarthy situation which he kept coming back to in the\ncourse of the discussion.\n13. O'Brien thinks that Reagan is no asset in the coming election, will\nnot help us in California and is the most dangerous problem the\nPresident has within the Republican Party.?\nFrom all of the foregoing, two things of significance emerge in my mind.\nWe should be planning how to encourage McCarthy's candidacy. It may\nall turn on one man, Howard Stein. If Stein agrees to go all the way and\nbankroll McCarthy's candidacy, McCarthy will stay in the race all the way,\neven as a spoiler. Stein is Jack Dreyfus' partner as you know and I\nwould think that through Bill Rogers or others, we could perhaps encourage\nStein's commitment to McCarthy. Itt would even be worth pumping some\nmoney in.\nA second point which seems to me to be very important is the Democratic\ndebt. We have an analysis of the Democrat's creditors and we should\nstart on the outside a pressure campaign to force them to pay their bills\nbefore they start spending new money. Obviously we can't get involved\nin this from here but some of our business friends on the outside might\nbe asked to organize a campaign to put the screws on.\nYou and I talked about this many months ago. It was my judgment then\nthat we should not try to embarrass the Democrats over their debt or\ncreate public sympathy for the \"poor\" Democrats, but rather wait until\nthe campaign was about to get underway and then see that the creditors\nput the heat on them. If someone from 1701 were to pick . couple of good\nloyalists on the outside, they could start them to work on this now."
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