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This file contains:
Transcript of conversation between Colson and Frank Stanton re: New Jersey polls. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/23/1972
Transcript of conversation between Colson and John Becker re: New England polling and races (particularly Rhode Island), overall assessment of presidential race. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/23/1972
Transcript of conversation between Colson and Lou Harris re: latest poll results (presidential election), bump for RN due to Vietnam negotiations. 11 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/27/1972
Copy of a memo from Hallett to Colson RE: McGovern's "Populist image." Handwritten notes on original added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/12/1972
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WHSF: Contested, 4-8
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This file contains:
Transcript of conversation between Colson and Frank Stanton re: New Jersey polls. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/23/1972
Transcript of conversation between Colson and John Becker re: New England polling and races (particularly Rhode Island), overall assessment of presidential race. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/23/1972
Transcript of conversation between Colson and Lou Harris re: latest poll results (presidential election), bump for RN due to Vietnam negotiations. 11 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/27/1972
Copy of a memo from Hallett to Colson RE: McGovern's "Populist image." Handwritten notes on original added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/12/1972
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
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4
8
10/23/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of conversation between Colson
and Frank Stanton re: New Jersey polls. 2
pgs.
4
8
10/23/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of conversation between Colson
and John Becker re: New England polling
and races (particularly Rhode Island), overall
assessment of presidential race. 5 pgs.
4
8
10/27/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of conversation between Colson
and Lou Harris re: latest poll results
(presidential election), bump for RN due to
Vietnam negotiations. 11 pgs.
4
8
4/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a memo from Hallett to Colson RE:
McGovern's "Populist image." Handwritten
notes on original added by unknown. 1 pg.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Page 1 of 1
Conversation with Frank Stanton, October 23, 1972
S: Tomorrow on the air tomorrow night we're going to use these
figures on New Jersey. I'll give you the September figures and then
I'll give you the October 22 figures.
C: The current ones are October 22.
S: Right. The polling was done yesterday.
C: What was the date in September
S: September 17.
S: 58-55-24-24 -- Schmitz 11, undecided 17 and 20.
C: So whatyou're saying is that it was 58-24 in New Jersey in mid-September
and it is now 55-24.
S: That's right. And we ran Case versus Krebs and Case was 51 and he's
now 53; Krebs was 24, he's now 20 and the other part is undecided -- very
high undecided.
C: Telephone poll though is to be expected.
S: I just thought you'd like to have those.
C: Very much so. When will you get New York, Frank?
S: That's the third one coming up and I don't have the date in front of
me but as soon as I get them I'll call you.
C: Boy, when you find.
5
weeks and you find only a 3 paint change, that
is remarkably stable, isn't it?
S: Solid as the Rock of Gibralter.
C: If there were to be
S: The other side of that coin is that McGovern was 24 - 24
C: Gained nothing and the President's lost a little, which is probably
3 point.
is not really
what is the sampel base ?
2.
S: 590
C: That's almost not significant.
S: I agree with youl
C: Two point S would be not significant at all. 3 maybe in the case
indicates
just a little erosion as you XX go on in the campaign. Damned interesting.
That confirms a private poll we had in New Jersey which showed virtually
no change. I think it showed one less point for us and one point more for
McGovern.
S: Well, we could be wrong that much.
C: No I would say these are very consistent. I just can't understand it.
A month ago if somebody had told me this would happen, I would have said
they were nuts. I would have expected, just in the normal process of the
campaign, for it to
S: You're still sticking with the 31 point spread and that's fantastic.
C: Yea, and you take even Harris nationally coming down to 25, which
is virtually unchanged and among his registered voters there was no
change.
S: Yea.
C: Well, I hope I can figure some way to make the next two weeks go by
fast. Thank you, Frank.
Conversation with John Becker, October 23, 1972
B: The President is holding very firm down there
we've been going almost
on a weekly basis for DeSimone and Chaffee and the last figures we had on the
President were 57-29 and 14 and this week it is 57-33 and 10.
C: A little gain for McGovern
B: Well, it's almost has to be the momentum of all the Democrats down there,
but the fact that the President's number stays at that consistently XXX strong,
C: It's been right up around there rightalong hasn't it?
B: That's right and it's a very notable thing, particularly in the light of the way
the other races are going and the other two races are getting much closer and
I personally feel a little unsettled about them. The Chaffee figures
he only
has a 4 point edge now
C: God, what are those figures?
B: Well, we have 48-44-8 now and last week Chaffee was 47, Pell was 39
and so the undecided was 14 and SO that's come off 6, from 14 down to 8. 5 of
that went to Pell and one went to Chaffee. So that one is closer. Herb's race
has closed up a little bit too, where Herb came off. last time Herb was
48 and Knowl was 35. Herb had a 13 point spread a week ago and that stands
45 for DeSimone and 39 for Knowl and 16 undecided and the undecided last week
was 17. Now the interesting things here are that the undecided have gone down
and the Senate race has gone down a little , so it has not gone down in the
Governor's fight. The interviewers feel
there's a big Noldy-DeStimone
debate scheduled for Wednesday night on television.
C: Why in hell is DeSimone debating Knowl?
B: I don't know, I just don't know. I think that's the only thing of
course,
there's
been a lot of pressure on to do it and at first they were supposed to have agreed
to
a
whole hour debate and but they've made a hell of an issue out of it. Knowl
has made quite an issue out of it during the last week and he's called Herb a
liar because Herb said he was going to debate an hour and then he said just a
half and hour and you know how that kind of thing can get away from you. And
it sort of has, a little bit down there and people are kind of waiting to see what
that debate shows. I just.
my feeling is that you,
these are just hand tabs
that I've done in my kitchen last night after we got the interviews back so I.
won't til tomorrow monring know what the interal movement of Democ rats have
but I guess what you're seeing is the Democrats are coming back to roost. The
2.
David Broder theory
I don't know whether you read it a week ago, he was
talking about the
where Democrats who just simply can't vote for
McGovern are really kind of devastated they have to vote for Nixon, but they vote
for Nixon and then after they vote for Nixon, in order to restore peace to their
fold, they vote straight Democrats all the rest of the way down and conceivably
that theory could have some validity here in Rhode Island where you get so
goddamn many Democrats and they have a tradition of voting Democratic in the
Presidential race and if the President holds anything like.
I think we would all.
have to feel that it was quite remarkable.
C: I'd say so. What are you getting around the rest of New England, now.
B: Well, of course, I lost my Governor in New Hampshire in the primary.
Goddamn shame, but it's his. own fault. Pretty decent guy, because I'm not
at all afraid to tell you this, but our polls in the primary up there were almost
exactly like they were two years ago
showing Peterson running well ahead.
And we had the same pattern this time. We had Walters getting 50% of the vote
in the primary and Thompson getting about 30 and 20 undecided. Bill wa ter
doesn't get his horses out, you see. He's probably one of the worst political
governors that I've had anything to do with. That doesn't mean he's a bad guy
because he's a thoroughly decent human being, but he just did nbox not get his
troops out and that's the same thing that happened in 1970, but in 1970 he still
had the remants of the organization Bill Johnson put together for him in
'68 when he was first elected and there was still enough of it there to
pull him through in ]2 squeakers. But he just had no apparatus at all this
time and
pretty decent guy. I saw him at Johnson's house after the
Princeton/Diatmoodth game last week and he said he had something to talk
about and I said I'm surprised you would even want to talk to me and he said
why the hell should I blame you for my mistakes, which is the typical defeated
candidate who got his pollster that showed him winning.
would hang us on the
goddamn cross, but Walter
well the thing was, we understand what the
damn numbers mean and we knew he wasn't going to win that big. But anyway,
I'm not operating in New Hampshire right now, but Ollie Quail did something up
there a day or two ago. He did something for the Dartmouth Public Affairs
school.
and he has a big pull forthe President there 62% for Nixon, and
29% for McGovern. and the rest undecided. Then the
he's got Tom McIntyre.
surprisingly to me, at any rate, running only 50-40 ahead of Wes. Powell.
C: That mean's Powell will win that seat.
B: Could. That's kind of hard to believe in the light of the very favorable image
that McIntyre has had up there.
C: But with a Nixon sweep of that size you'll carry.
that
B: That might very well happen.
C: Carry Powell in.
3.
B: It might take Thomson in, too. Thomson
I don't know if that interests
you, that's kind of the battle of the nobody's for Governor there. But they've
got Crowley with 36% and Thomson with 34. And Emeracarca is running as an
Independent SO he's the only one approachi g the Peterson constituency and he's
taking 9% with 21 undecided. I think I telephoned those numbers down to Joan.
And I haven't done anything more recently up there.
C: That was like 70-20.
B: Yea, it was very very big. It was in the high 60s. 3 to 1.
C: What about Connecticut?
B: I don't know if xxxx xgx I talked to you since my great friend Tubby Harrison
walked out on me. Yes, I did. I tak ed to you about trying to help him get a job.
The son of a bitch went to work for my competitor up here.
C: That's nice.
B: And unbeknownst to me he had already stolen the Hartford Times account
away from me before he left, so it's really war up here with the polling
companies in Boston. But any way, for whatever it's worth, they're
last poll showed a very big Nixon pull over the
I'm getting those numbers.
It was 3 to 1, really huge and that seems to square with what Yankelovich
was showing in his New York Times stuff. I would feel. I've been amazed
at the dimensions of the
members even since eve' started collecting them
earlier in the year and they stay right up there. Massachusetts we will be in
the field again in a couple days.
C: Coming out when, John?
I
B: That's the last one and scheduled to be published the Sunday before the
election.
C: And you;re going into the field tomorrow on it?
B: No, no, we won't.
we're going in the field today and we're going to be
interviewing constantly all week long here, but we're doing the four congressional
races first. 5th district first, and then theDrian/Linsky one, and then Studds-
Weeks, and then Hicks and Mokely. The numbers of the no-name reserch company
is putting out in Connecticut are 59 Nixon, 23 McGovern and 18 undecided.
I guess that'
.Monday the 5th 2 days before the election and that interviewing
will be finished sometim e next week. That will be the last one we do.
C: John, as a professional pollster, do you see any way McGovern can close the
lead that we have nationally?
4.
B: The answer, do you think close it or eliminate it completely
C: Can he win?
B: I would feel that he cannot win. Barring something absolutely senstational
and I don't know what more sensational you can get than the stuff the Washington
Post has been putting out every day for the last couple weeks
C: Which isn't having any impact
B: And it doesn't seem to be cutting. It looks to me
you know much more than
I do
but it looks to me like old Henry's going to come back and take McGovern's
pants off about a week before the election and leave him standing around there naked.
C: No, you can't do that. It would just be blatant.
B: Well, it would be but I can make a case for it. Every time I get that argument
that the President could have done this a year or two ago, again, I'm not involved
at all in foreign policy, but looking at it politically it would seém to me that the
President has had an increasing amount of leverage on those people over there
as the election draws near.
C: Oh, well, that's true and that's
B: That's why he couldn't have done it a year or two ago because
other parts
of the country where I'm sure the President is inherently more popular
C: You just put it very well, it's a battle between two people with a lot of negative
opinions
they're more negative about McGovern then about us.
B: Well, there is, and my feeling is
has always been, when I've been working
with guys in campaigns, Chuck, is that there is noting inthe world beats having
a defective opponent and that's what we've got here. We've got a guy
in
Massachusetts in June and he had a 61-30 favorable ratio and now he's got a
44-46 favorable, unfavorable ration and that's happened in Massachusetts so that
while the President's got 44% don't like him, 46% in Massaxuseetss don't like
McGovern and SO I think that makes it a horse race here, although I don't know
right now, I think my feeling is, without seeing the next poll, my feeling is that
McGovern might win a squeaker here but you've had to assess what all the
Kissinger travels are going to be. But you don't feel
C: On the war?
B: Yes.
C: Well, it could but it's not something
5.
B: I don't know what the hell we can do to help Chaffee. That's a very big
seat to win and
C: You mean if Nixon came to Rhode Island it would help Chaffee?
B: Well, they're talking about how he might like to have him. Is Mrs. Nixon
going to come to Rhode Island? They're talking about that too.
C: That's a possibility.
B: Right now I just have the feeling that Chaffee's thing has just been a steady
a nd gradual deterioration, you know, and it's a very ominous type of thing,
where Gov. Chaffee just doesn't seem to be doing anything and the other guy
is just gradually restoring his position and I don't know.
I think they're going
to try to hang bussing on Powell in the last week and a half which is kind of
reaching for it a little, but
C: They should hang him with being's McGovern's lackey. That's the way to
kill him.
B: They've been trying to do that too, but it doesn't seem
C: Is there much publicity up there over defense cuts, because McGovern, I
hear, is being hurt around the country on that badly.
B: They're been tryingto talk about that. I don't know what it is bout Chaffee,
I just. I don't feel he's articulating anything, I think he's just been.
like the
going into the 3rd period with a 7 to 1 lead against Canadians and end up
winning 7 to 6. It's that kind of thing and it makes me a little nervous. I
think Herb has got a better shot. He's going to take his guy on real hard these
last two weeks, because he's been making some mileage with a lot of phoney
stuff about having brought all the shopping malls into Worick and all that kind
of stuff and he's been making some headway with it, so Herb is going to try
to deal with him pretty much head on that way. I don't have any feel for Maine
at all.
C: I've gotten some figures from there that are just like Vermont.
B: Is Margaret doing all right up there?
C: Yep, she's well ahead.
Conversation with Lou Harris, October 27, 1972
H; It's absolutely a Vietnam reaction.
C: That was the other questoin. Are your 3 days tabulated seperately
so
H: No we couldn't, we would have been delayed by about 3 hours today.
C: So there's no way of knowing if the third day had any impact.
H: Well, it had to because it was obviously building, but remembar I
said to you Monday I was sure that Vietnam was front and center now?
All Henry's visisit and obviosly people are just hanging on every one.
And it's devastating on McGovern. Let me read you the two columns:
Tuesday a. m.
For the first time since early September, President Nixon has increased
his lead over Senator McGovern to 60-32, a spread of 28 points. THis
latest Harris survey is conducted among 1648 likely voters, nationwide
between October 24 and 26. Thus the interviewing took place just after
Henry Kissinger returned from well publicized negotiations on Vietnam
and was 3/4 completed before his White House announcem ent that
'peace is at hand'. Harris surveys returning to the field follow voting
trends through the final week into the election. Between mid-September
and mid-October Senator McGovern cut the Nixon lead from 34 to 25 points.
The reveral of this trend in late October S considered a significant
political development at this stage of the Presidential campaign. The
reversal can be traced directly to a highly positive response from the
voters to the imminance of the negotiated settlement of the
Vietnam war. This latest Harris survey by 53-42 margin, the xxxjaxob8
majority of voters give Mr. Nixon high marks in 'negotiating final
settlement of the Vietnam war. Only a week earlier voter rf action on
identical question was 53-39 negative. The impact of the Vietnam events
reinforced by two other results that indicate Mr. Nixon' still faced political
problems in other areas by 50 -45 percent and continued to receives
negative remarks in his 'keeping the economy healthy'. 11 That's actually
an increase, but it's still negative. You see why I did this, and by 52-36
percent voters gave negative marks on "his handling of corruption in the
government". He nevertheless maintains a lead of landslide proportions
against his Democratic opponent"
what I was seeking here was two
illustrations to say it's Vietnam that moved here.
2.
"Obviously the moving element in the election has become the dramatic
events in bringing the war in Vietnam to a close. Even at that, however,
no more than 1/4 of this survey was conducted in the terms of the peace
settlement was surfacing. It remains to be seen of course that theinitially
positive public reaction and the impending Vietnam agreement will continue
to favor Mr. Nixon up until election day. " That's just a hedge.
Tuesday-
"Last Thursday 1648 likely voeters were asked in person in their homes
this question. Comparable samples of voters have been asked thissince
June. 'How would you rate the job President Nixon has been doing negotiating
the final settlement of the Vietnam war'. Nixon rating on negotiating
settlement on Vietnam. In jUne 31-63 negative. August, 38-55 negative.
September 42-50 negative. Early October 37-58 negative. Mid-October 39-53
negative. October 24-26 53-42 positive. 11 Boy that's a turn around.
"Up until the end of October the turnabout in public confidence in the record
of the Nixon Administration negotiating a settlement in Vietnam has been
dramatic and sharp rising from a pessimistic low of 63-31 negative in
June to the current 53-42 positive. Here is the trend in the Presidential
pairings between President Nixon and Senator McGovern in response to
this question: (you've got those)
"The current 28 point spread for Richard Nixon is almost identical of the
result back in March when the Nixon lead was 27 points. I couldn't
resist putting that in, when McGovern was saying the polls are all hung.
"In this latest survey, Nixon gains have been registered in precisely those
groups inthe electorate that have been most sensitive to Vietnam in the
past. In the East the Nixon lead has gone up to 61-30, from 58-35 mid
October. In the Weat, the Nixon margin has risen to 56-38 up from
52-41 in mid-October. In the South, however, which has always been
more hawkish about the war, Mr. Nixon is ahead by a substantial
62-30, this is down from 67-26 in mid-October. 11 Interesting.
wid
Women now prefer President Nixon by 59-32, up considerably from
the 56-36 percent margin recorded in mid-October. Women have con-
sistently been more sensi ive to the war in Vietnam and hopes of peace
clearly are making an impact onthe women's vote. Among young people
under 30, the Nixon lead has gone up only marginallly during the same
period from 52-44 to 52-43. This group has been a prime target of
Senator McGovern's campaign efforts. The young maywrespond to Vietnam
more sharply, when and if the final peace settlement has beenætually
signed, since their skepticism on the war has been deepest among any
group in the electorate. Up to this latest Harris survey McGovern had
3.
continued to gain ground for a period of six weeks and appeared that he
making progress chiefly on his charge of corruption and political spying.
However, with the dramatic turn of events concerning Vietnam, Mr. Nixon
has now reversed the trend temporarily at least that the campaign is in leads
its final week. 11
That's just a hedge. That's got to be big news, right?
C: Oh, yea.
H: Now, this one I hope you'll like.
C: You know, the big news really is the turn around. It doesn't make the
point that the polling really only got one day of the
H: Well, we got it in there twice, you know. It's pretty strong, not the
full impact.
C: That's clear.
H: Now, the next one is for Thursday and it's all on Vietnam:
"During the period that President Nixon pursued a policy of escalating the
bombing and mining of North Vietnam while intensifying negotiations with
the Hanoi government, the American people for the most part have stood
more in support than in opposition to Mr. Nixon's policies. However, so
S keptical are the American voters about obtaining apeaceful settlement of
Vietnam that throughout the 1972 campaign, the President
no better
than the slim 52-47 positive rating in his handling of the war. It was not
until the final stages of Henry Kissinger's negotiations in Paris and Saigon
that the public finally gave the President positive marks of 53-42 in late
October' negotiating final settlement. As far back as last May, the Harris
survey recorded public support for two basic parts of the Kissinger/Hanoi
terms.
By 51-31 percent a majority favored a standstill ceasefire which would allow
each side to remain in place where it X was when the fighting ended.
By 44-38 percent the public also supported 'an agreement to end the war
but allow the North Vietnamese to continue to occupy the territories now
occupied'. At no time during 1972 did the Harris survey ever record
more than 16% of the American public who felt the President Theiu of
South Vietnam was not expendable. In Mid-October voters were asked
4.
3.
this question which had been repeated earlier intheye ar: 'suppose the
only wayto get peace in Vietn am were to have President Thieu resign
from office, would you favor or oppose such a move.¹ In mid-October
it was 65-12 favor, early October 63-13. May was 60-14, March 50-16. 11
I think when Thieu reads that you won't have much trouble wit him.
"Oc course as part of the proposed settlement
11
C: Actually we're not really having muchtrouble with Thieu.
"
General Thieu would still remain in office and would contro 1 the
territories of Saigon government occupies until election in South Vietnam
to determine the makeup new government of that country. By the same
token, the American people have also been steadfastly against establishing
a coalition government with the Communist takeover in Saigon. Periodicall y
the public has been asked this question by the Harris survey most recently
October 24-26, among 1648 likely voters in the nation interviewed in their
home in person. 1 Suppose the only way to get peace in Vietnam were to agree
to a coalition government which included the Communists. Would you
favor or ag oppose such a coalition in Saigon?" Late October favors33,
oppoe 48. Mid October 38-46 oppose, early october 34-49 oppose,
Sept. 37-47, June 39-43, May 38-45, March 31-46 and then July '71 was
38-38, April was 42-39 and January of '71 was 40-41 oppose.
Back in early '71 a plurality of the public actually favored a coalition of
the communists in Saigon as a way out of the war. However, during 1972
consistent pluralities oppose such a move as the solution to negotiations
deadlocked. In the final settlement, although there is a propos counsel
forreconciation, the actual rule in South Vietnam until election are held will
not be by coalition. "
That point should be made over and over andover.
C: I agree with you completely. One of my own guys was telling me
H:
saying that it is coalition.
C: One of my guys at lunch was telling me, well, it's really amalition
and I said, hey , whoa
H: Absolutely not.
C: Yea.
H: "The two bold steps President Nixon took to answer
North Vietra mese
offensive first to mine the harbors of the North and then to order heavy
bombing raids on all that country including Hanoi itself. Initially the
response to the minings was highly positive, favored by the public by 59-24.
This support never waivered, with mid-October backing coming to 59-29.
5.
On the initiation of heavy bombing raids in North Vietnam, again initial
public support for the President's policies was a substantial 55-37.
However, by mid-October public doubts about the wisdom of this policy
began to mount and backing for theheavy bombings to no better than 46-44.
During the same
"
H: Incidentally, the last poll here was 45 -43, so its held.
"During the same period, Mr. Nixon's rating on 'handling the war in
Vietnam" had gone from it's highest point, 52-47 positive to 47-51
negative, not a big drop, but it's
public patience was again wavering
thin on Vietnam. This SKIXIX same trend of initial support eroding and
backing and finally a substantial rise was evident in a key question asked
of voters during September and October. 'If you were President, who do
you think would be more liekly W to end U.S. involvement in Bietnam
sooner, Nixon or McGovern?" Late October Nixon 49, McGovern 33. 16 points.
Mid-October, Nixon 45- McGovern 39. 6 points. Early October Nixon 48,
McGovern 35 - 13 points. September, 48-34-14.
In mid-October Mr. Nixon had only a 6 point edge over Senator McGovern
on which one possessed the capability to end the war sooner, but one week
later the Nixon edge had jumped to 16 points and undoubtedly a public
response to the stepped up hope for a negotiated settlement. One key
reason why Vietnam did not work better for McGovern could be found in
the lack of confidence the public had in his own pronouncements of the
war. For example, by 74-15 voters doubt if he could keep his pledge
'to end all U.S. involvement in the war whenx within 90 daya of taking
office as President' Most decisive was this question asked in mid-October.
Do you think the kind of term Denator McGovern would agree to in
MCGN
settling the Vietnam war would be honorable and right that the U.S. would
accept or do you think he would agree to terms the U.S. would be wrong
to accept. Term S McGovernwould accept to settle Vietnam: honoraboe
E
and right, 32%; wrong to accept 47%; not sure 21%. Basically, this
election is ending on the key question of which Presidential candidate can
best 'move the world closer to peace' on this issue, the campaign came
down to the wire, Richard Nixon is beating George McGovern by61 -22%. 11
H. Is that column all right?
C: It's marvelous.
H: It really puts it the way it is.
C: Well, it not only puts it the way it is
it puts in in focus just before the
Same as
6allup
6.
election weekend, but it also probably serves just the right pressure
purposes all around.
H: Oh, I think so. Neither Hanoi nor Saigon better get out of line.
C: I think I'll get that one over to Henry this afternoon. That's spectacular.
Just some quickies I need -- Catholics, Union, East, West, North and
South
H: Mid-West 57-35, in mid-October to 60-32 which is good.
South you've gotten. Big Northern States, was 56-37 now is 61-31
and that's Vietnam I'm sure.
C: And see those are the big 8 electoral states, right?
states
H: Yep.
C: Catholics and labor unions.
H: Union, same spread but with more undecided. It was 53-40, it's
still that, but it's 51-38 and 11 undecided very high. They're under
some pressure. The Catholic is just out of this world. It's now 63-28.
and it was 62-30. It's just moving. Independents are moving. They
were 63-26 and now 66-24. Democrats were 37-54, now 39-51-10
pick up. Jewish, 48-43, was 48-47 and before that 33-58, so this
is helping there to.
C: Were going to end up with about 40 % of the Jewish vote.
H: Right. With registered voters, it's 60- 32 exactly what we have on
the total. On certain to vote though, it's 62-32, And with
C: Do you know that thesex are almost identical to the Johnson-Goldwater
figures in the last week of the '64 campaign. Gallup had a 61-32 the last
figure.
H: I'll bet you that we got up to 30 points inthe enel.
C: That's 65-35
wouldn't that be something. Wow!
H: That would be the biggest victory fotter for any President in modern
history.
C: That's right.
H: H arding got a 64-36.
C: Well, it's just moving.
7.
H:
lead on who can better move the world closer to the peace. 39 points.
About the confidence one, do you wat that one?
C: Y ea.
H: That's out of sight. where did I put it?
(second tape)
C: Which President man would you trust most to be President in the
White House? was 63-25.
H; Now, that's up to 58-30
C: That's a significant jump.
H: A 10 point jump and that reinforced it.
C: That's all in a week, and that's in a week when he is kicking the bejesus
out of us on the Watergate and all that.
H: I ran into more people that thought his speech on corruption was
terrible.
C: It was a bomb I thought.
H: The others, I haven't posted McGovern.
McGovern Profile here.
C: What's the matter with the market, Lou, I would have thought it would.
H: I was just talking to Bill Donaldson.
c: I would have thought it would have gone up 50 points.
H: Well, he told me
Ksold some stock X to American Express and
he told me not to put it back in the market.
C: Really?
H: Yea, only because he thinks the market crazy.
8.
C: Yea, but within a maximum of 3 weeks, this thing will be wrapped
up. People will start seeing prisoners come home. The mood in this
country is going to just go.
H:
deals
I saw this this morning. They have a backlog of orders
now
C: They have a shortage. A friend of mine was out looking for a Ford here
and couldn't get one.
H: Here it is,
McGovern has courage to say what he thinks even if
unpopular
71-19.
Down from 73-19.
Is too extreme liberal views.
59-26
was 58-30
Deserves a lot of credit for being
against Vietnam before others 42. 43
was 48-40 mid October
was 46-43 early October
39-41 September
42-41 early September.
54-21 positive May
Doesn't inspires Rx confidence
as a President should.
61-28
Good judgment and taste
35-49
was 35-51 but no reason to change.
Makes too many mitakes
65 24
was 61-28
raises doubt about judgment
High sense of integrity
52-26
was 49-27 earlyOctober.
Right to expose profits made
by grain deal
62 14
was 66-15
Wrong to say abolish all
wage and price controls
57-24
was 60-22
C: We haven't been hitting him on that.
H: You never have.
C: No, we've been trying to. People just don't pick it up.
Right to emphasize in Nixon
aide listening devices at the
Democratic headquarters
55-25
was 59-25
9.
Seem to be a different politician and lately
just another politican promising what
voters wants
66-22
was 61-28
Right to point out close ties between big
business contributors and favors by
Nixon Administration.
61-20
was 61-21
(which means that is a point of vulnerability)
PRESIDENTIAL PROFILE
Kept most of the promises he made in
1968
52-38
was 48-40
Doesn't inspire enough confidece ad a
President should.
33-59
was 38-55
H: See, these are all predicters and they're not afraid to take decisive
action.
C: I thinkyou've right, absolutely, in
by another week
with him taking his case more direct now as he will be
H: Didn't he get a good feel on saying we're going to make that peace in
Vietnam? I'll bet he brought the house down.
C: Last night? I'll tell you, it was very interesting, I wasn't there, but
Haldeman described it to me and the President did a little bit. The place
kind of had an electric feeling in it and there was kind of an air of excitement,
cheering when he came in, speakers and John Sherman Cooper was
then Louie Nunn said 'we have a great privilege tonight in view of
the announcements of today that there is an unprecedented. " no, "in
view of the announcements today we have for the first time a feeling of
peace" but he couldn't get it out. The place just went beserk and then they
started chanting, four more years and it apparently just struck the
cord. Holy smokes. That's Eastern Kentucky.
H: Remember I said that this puts the cap on.
Not done a good job on keeping corruption
out of the Administration
40-39
was 46-37
10.
Too much wiretapping, violates peoples
privacy
40-38
was 46-31
Probably done more to help us reach
peace than any other President
66-23
was 61-27
62-27 early Oct.
62-25 Sept.
69-26 July
this reads through loud and clear.
Not kept his pledge to end the war in
Vietnam.
47-44
was 52-38 mid-Oct
agree
was 50-41 early Oct.
44-46 Sept.
Man of high integrity
75-16
Republicans too close to big business
52-30
was 60-26 mid -oct.
Doing a good job and deserves
relection
57-32
was 54-34
59-30 Sept.
Doe sn't deserve to win by landslide
43-44
C: That's half the people in effect saying he deserves to win in a landslide.
H: That's an improvement. The one that's really turned around is
inspires confidence personally
51-41
was 48-45 mid-oct
H: In other words, what's happaned, it's just added to he Presdent'
crediblity.
C: Unless
I think he played it right in hind sight
thank God for the
Norh Vietnam. One X irony after another in this campaign.
H
That's about it.
C: You're great, I really appreciate this. I may go get drunk tonight.
H: I'm going to California to work on
C: He's actually quit?
H: I gather he's quit the campaign. He won't talk to anybody. Of cour se
he may be in his worst period. He may just.
11.
C: He's thus far played this thing smart. I thought he might come
attacking us on this.
H:
C: If he does we'll just cream him and it will finish him. Well, next
week will be fascinating.
H:
North Vietnamese are not going to get together. That's what they're
hearing in Paris.
C: That's what the Mc G overn people are?
H: Yea.
C: I hope they 're not getting in there screwing them up
H; I assume something is being set up.
C: Well, it is. The mechanics are such that the timing is a big if, but
Henry is rather optimistic at the moment.
H: I think once they decided they want to meet it's all over. That's
great. 30 points and stay there. That's probably the maximunthe
President can get. Then you're next move would be 70-30 and I can't
believe an election could occur like that.
C:
B ut this is about where she should 1peak out. It seems to me we're
still going to get.
I talked to Frank Stanton today who called me to
tell me that they were putting a special on Sunday and if we wanted to
provide people to talk and I said we'd try to help and said, God, I don't'
know what you.
you fellows were born under the right stars, but you
just
this thing is going to do a slow build and by the end of next week
you're really going to have it across to the Americanpeople what's happened
and it's tremendous.
H: It's going to do a fast build.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
12 April 1972
to
Buc puckuray
le
Dear
MEMORANDUM FOR CHARLES W. COLSON
FROM DOUG HALLETT
D&A
I note in the Newsweek article on McGovern references to his increasing
distance from the plains of the Dakotas; i.e. trips to the Virgin Islands and
Galbraith's Vermont farm, his mod clothing, and, most particularly, his
$110, 000 Japanese-style home complete with appropriate furnishings. One
thing we might do -- probably not yet, but if McGovern continues to show
strength hin the primaries -- is use this kind of material to blast away at
his Populist image. Another thing which might be worthwhile is figuring out
how in the hell a preacher's kid, former college prof, a man who's been
on the government payroll at no more than $42, 500 can afford this kind of
life-style. I suppose his lecture fees, etc. enable him to live this way --
even with the expense of private education for his kids -- but there just may
be the slightest possibility that somebody is bankrolling him and if we could
find out who and how we could bust his integrity image right open.
Dong- Excellent Exce Pains
way jurna N