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From Strachan to Colson re: Charlie McWhorter's report on Denver RNC meeting. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/9/1971
From Charlie McWhorter to Flemming re: information and comments from GOP governors and leaders. Includes political breakdown of general areas, state by state electoral prospects, snapshots and strategies. 21 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/26/1971
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This file contains:
From Strachan to Colson re: Charlie McWhorter's report on Denver RNC meeting. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/9/1971
From Charlie McWhorter to Flemming re: information and comments from GOP governors and leaders. Includes political breakdown of general areas, state by state electoral prospects, snapshots and strategies. 21 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/26/1971
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4
12
8/9/1971
Campaign
Memo
Memo from Strachan to Colson re: Charlie
McWhorter's report on Denver RNC
meeting. 1 pg.
4
12
7/26/1971
Campaign
Memo
Memo from Charlie McWhorter to Flemming
re: information and comments from GOP
governors and leaders. Includes political
breakdown of general areas, state by state
electoral prospects, snapshots and strategies.
21 pgs.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Page 1 of 1
12
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Administratively Confidential
August 9, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
CHUCK COLSON
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
Mr. Haldeman asked me to send you a copy of Charlie
McWhorter's report on the Denver RNC meeting.
Attachment
July 26, 1971
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
Memorandum
For: Harry S. Flemming
From:
Charlie McWhorter
Re: Information and comments from recent meetings of Western Governors,
Midwestern Covernors, GOP State Chairmen and Republican National
-Committee.
INDEX
Page
Page
General Areas
1.
Economic
2
2.
Foreign Policy
2
3.
Civil Rights
3
-.
Vice President
3
5.
George Wallace
3
6.
McCloskey
4
State by State Comments
Alabama
12
Montana
20
Alaska
18
Nebraska
17
Arizona
19
Nevada
19
Arkansas
12
New Hampshire
5
California
18
New Jersey
8
Colorado
20
New Mexico
19
Connecticut
7
New York
--]
Delaware
9
North Carolina
10
Dist. of Columbia
10
North Dakota
16
Florida
11
Ohio
13
Georgia
10
Oklahoma
17
Hawaii
18
Oregon
18
Idaho
21
Pennsylvania
8
Illinois
14
Rhode Island
6
Indiana
13
South Carolina
10
Iowa
16
South Dakota
15
Kansas
17
Tennessee
11
Kentucky
11
Texas
13
Louisiana
12
Utah
20
Maine
5
Vermont
5
Maryland
9
Virginia
10
Massachusetts
6
Washington
19
Michigan
14
West Virginia
w
Minnecota
15
Wisconsin
1.5
Mississippi
12
Wyoming
20
76
2 -
General Areas
1. Economic
There is almost unanimous agreement among Republican Covernors and officials
that the principle difficulties facing the Administration are in the
economic area. This "conventional wisdom" is often not well documented
or supported by specific information. For instance, a state chairman
would frequently site unemployment as a factor but not really be familiar
with the level of unemployment in his own state. Others would refer to
the fact that business was pretty good in their own areas but that this
was still a problem. I believe that a large and difficult area of the
political problem with our national economy lies in the fact that it is
reported nationally by the media in a way which exaggerates the bad news
and makes everyone conscious of difficulties. This creates worry and
concern in areas which have relatively few economic problems. As a
result, it will be highly important to get the media talking about any
general trends which indicate we are making progress in moving the
economy forward.
In terms of immediate political impact there is a definite problem for
the group of people who are presently unemployed. In addition, there
are a large number of people whose take home pay has been reduced or
limited because of the reduction of overtime. Then there is the con-
sumer, which means everyone, who is pinched by the inflationary increase
in the cost of living. Political leaders rarely make any distinction
among these groups in discussing the adverse political impact of the
economy but, of course, all must be examined and dealt with separately.
There is wide spread agreement, however, that if the President loses
the election next year it will be primarily a result of dissatisfaction
with the Administration's economic policy. There is general agreement
that not enough people really understand the President's economic "game
plan" resulting in a high level of frustration and irritation.
A special word needs to be said about agriculture and farm problems.
No administration seems able to be successful in handling these matters
from a political standpoint, but it is imperative that this Administra-
tion move quickly to correct the impression that many farm people have
to the effect that the President is really not very much concerned about
agricultural problems and that there is nobody close to him that is in
a position to speak for the farmer. I know this must sound a little
discouraging to those who have worked SO hard to improve this situation.
However, it is clear to me that it would be extremely beneficial if a
change'could be made in the Secretary of Agriculture between now and the
end of this year. Those planning the President's schedule should give
more urgent attention to invitations which would bring him close to
farming and to rural areas such as the National Plowing Contest or a
convention of REA groups.
2. Foreign Policy
There was wide spread agreement that the President had pre-empted the
Indochina issue by his dramatic announcement of a visit to Red China.
- 3 -
2. Foreign Policy (Cont'd)
Apart from Vietnam, there is little ground for complaint with the Presi-
dent's handling of foreign policy. In fact, the President's expertise
in foreign policy is regarded as his strongest asset, but there was
considerable doubt among GOP leaders whether this would be enough to
offset the adverse impact of inflation, unemployment, lack of economic
growth and specific difficulties with agriculture.
3. Livil Rights
There was wide spread agreement among GOP officials from the border and
southern states that over zealous efforts by HEW officials in devising
various desegregation schemes for public schools can be politically
disastrous. Interestingly enough, the deep south is already SO
thoroughly integrated that not much more can be done there. Politically
speaking, however, efforts by HEW to come up with massive bussing schemes
in order to achieve school integration on a rigid formula basis in the
rest of the south and border states would be a political disaster and
would create deep bitterness and racial animosities which would also be
counter eductive in achieving overall racial reconciliation.
4. Vice President
There is wide spread recognition that a choice of a Vice President is a
decision which must be made by the President and accepted by the Party.
At the present time, Governors and Party officials are most reluctant
to express any public views which are critical of Vice President Agnew.
It is equally clear that there is a considerable body of opinion among
Covernors and officials that the President's cause would be better
served if there were a change in his running mate for 1972. Nobody
seems to be insisting on an early decision about this matter and I
think that most GOP officials would welcome anything which tends to
strengthen Vice President Agnew's standing with the voters. I believe
it important for everyone to keep in mind that whether or not Agnew
runs for reelection, he still will be Vice President during 1972. For
this reason alone his effectiveness should not be undermined by any
Republican comment or activity. There is wide spread recognition that
part of the Vice President's problem is with the media but by this time
it is almost impossible to make any drastic change in his public image.
Some state chairmen are frank enough to state that if Vice President
Agnem remains on the ticket they hope that he will not campaign in their
states. Others have questioned his effectiveness in being able to pro-
vide additional strength to the President or on behalf of local and
state candidates in their states. At this point in time I would
summarize the situation by saying that the Party is very nervous about
the President's decision on a running mate and that there is very little
affirmative support for the Vice President.
5. George Wallace - 1972
There was a general concensus among couthern Party officials that Wallace
was weaker now than in 1966. For example, Clarke Reed of Mississippi
- 4 -
5. George Wallace - 1972 (Cont'd)
reported that the President was now ahead in a private 3-way poll in
his state. A recent poll in Tennessee showed the President leading
with Wallace a poor third in a 3-way race which included Humphrey as the
Democrat. Jim Martin of Alabama said that Wallace is having a great
deal of difficulty with his Legislature and is losing popular support.
This was confirmed by Tommy Thomas of Florida who is originally from
Alabama and now lives in North Florida. Thomas reports that the
weakening of the Wallace position in Alabama has had the effect of
reducing his appeal in North Florida. Thomas mentioned increasing
public annoyance with Wallace's efforts to emphasize a Populist role
and in the changes in his personal appearance which have apparently
resulted from his new marriage. In other words, the orange shirts are
not going over too well. Never the less, it must be recognized that
Wallace does have a strong base of support in the south and that it
must be assumed that he wants to run again next year if he has any
chance at all.
Anything which can be done to undermine his position in the deep south
should be given high priority and every effort must be made to avoid
unnecessary activity which help the Wallace cause in the perimeter
south and border states. Wallace thrives on the volatile nature of
southern politics where Republican traditions are weak. Loyalty to
the National Democratic Party is increasing through the infusion of
new and moderate Democratic leadership in many southern states.
6. McCloskey
There was general agreement that the President's initiatives with Red
China had effectively undermined McCloskey's position on Indochina
and would reduce his appeal among Republican primary voters. GOP
leaders in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Minnesota, and
California reported some signs of organized activity in behalf of
McCloskey, but none of them indicated that this represented a serious
threat to the President at this time. There was complete agreement
that nothing should be done by party officials at the national, state
or local levels which would make McCloskey a "martyr" or develop
sympathy for him as an underdog candidate.
- 5 -
State by State Comments
Northeast
Maine
At the present time COP chances turn on whether Muskie gets the
Democratic nomination. If he does, then it is unrealistic to expect
the President to make a strong showing in Maine. Senator Smith can
expect a tough race from Congressman Hathaway. She will run an inde-
pendent campaign and probably not become personally involved in the
campaign for President if Muskie is the Democratic nominee. The GOP
organization is solvent and is building a staff. Ned Harding would
be a good Nixon chairman. There is no race for Governor in 1972 and
the GOP will concentrate on trying to find two decent Congressional
candidates and to hold on to control of both houses of the State
Legislature.
New Hampshire
We can expect McCloskey to make a major effort in New Hampshire.
Party officials believe that the President's initiative on Red China
has substantially undermined McCloskey's position. It is recommended
that our people immediately start a program of contact with various
Party leaders who might be likely to support a McCloskey effort for
the purpose of assuring them that the President believes in a broad
based Party and that their support for the President would be welcomed.
It is important to get a slate of Nixon delegates who will have broad
appeal and the delegate selection process must be carried out in a way
which minimizes personal resentments. Mildr Perkins has recommended
that we follow the same general plan of organization for the Nixon
campaign which was followed in 1960. This involved setting up a
"Plans Board" of five co-equal chairmen who met weekly with a campaign
staff. Mildred said that she had obtained favorable approval for this
plan in 1972 from Senator Cotton and from former Governor Lane Dwinell.
Economic conditions are not favorable in New Hampshire at present with
pockets of high unemployment and concern with foreign imports in such
industries as shoes and textiles.
The race for Covernor is wide open with a lot of resentment against the
incumbent Governor Peterson. Bill Loeb and the Manchester paper are
attacking the President's visit to China although it is unlikely he
would do anything to help McCloskey. The state GOP has no serious
problems of indebtedness but has a very limited staff operation.
Vermont
The President's standing is still strong and economic conditions are
not as serious as elsewhere. Uncertainty retains about the race for
Covernor next year and there is no Senate contest. An eye should be
kept on the activities of Tom a former Lt. Covernor, who might
be a possible leader of any McClo. hey activity in the state. Douglas
Cairns, the 1.1 68 Nixon chairman, has not been well for several months
but would like to be of help in setting up the 1972 organization.
- 6 -
Vermont (Cont'd)
He is semi-retired from his business and might still be the best man
for next year.
Massachusetts
The President's popularity is not high and economic conditions are
bad in many places. The Massachusetts primary could be dangerous.
A key factor could be whether Governor Sargent and Senator Brooke
would be willing to identify themse_7 with the President's campaign
in Massachusetts during the primary. Senator Brooke will not face
any serious opposition within the GOP or from the Democrats. It would
make sense to try to get both Governor Sargent and Senator Booke to
campaign in the primary for the President together with all of the GOP
Congressmen. At the very least, an effort should be made to avoid
unnecessary controversy or arguments with the Governor and Senator
since they could be quite helpful campaigning for the national ticket
in New England and elsewhere.
A visit by the President to Plymouth Rock for the 350th anniversary
during this Thanksgiving might be worth considering. The current
State GOP Chairman, Herbert Waite, is a former Coldwater supporter and
is pro-RN. His relations with Governor Sargent are good and he should
be able to identify all elements of Nixon's support in the state.
Former state Senator William D. Weeks might make a good Nixon chairman
if provided with some campaign staff. Weeks may make another primary
race against Congressman Keith next year which would make him unavail-
able.
The present State Committee is quite weak although the debt is only
$50,000. Reapportionment is likely to hurt GOP Congressmen but this
is not yet settled.
Rhode Island
Economic conditions are close to the national average but it is
possible to blame the Democratic Covernor for many state problems.
The GOP expects a strong campaign for both Covernor and Senate next
year with former Attorney General Herbert DeSimone making another
race for Governor and John Chafee running against Senator Pell. COP
resources will be concentrated in these two campaigns. A possible
Nixon chairman would be George Vetter who has assisted RN activities
in the past or Jim Nugent from Barrington. Olef Anderson would be a
good Nixon finance chairman. The media in Rhode Island has been very
much opposed to the Nixon Administration. Fred Lippett, the GOP
National Committeeman and Minority Leader in the State House of Repre-
sentatives, is very lukewarm about the President. John Chafee can
provide the best help to the fresident particularly if there is a
Presidential primary on April 12.
Guidance is needed from the Nixon Headquartors in Washington about the
necessary strategy for this primary. Tucker Wright, the State GOP
- 7 -
Rhode Island (Cont'd)
Chairman who is pro-Nixon, recommends that a prominent GOP slate
of delegates run on an uncommitted basis as the best way of minimizing
McCloskey's showing. At the same time every effort must be made to
turn out a good vote for the President in the popularity contest.
Wright said that there would be opposition to the designation of George
Vetter as the Nixon chairman if this gives him an advantage for con-
sideration for appointment to the coming vacancy on the U.S. District
Court for Rhode Island.
Connecticut
Economic conditions are still adverse in Connecticut. Governor Meskill
is a strong supporter of the President and his organization from 1970
would be a good starting point although it is important that Senator
Weicker and others be included. The major statewide race in Connecticut
next year will be for President. Since Connecticut still has the
straight ticket lever, it is most important that a strong campaign for
the President be organized.
There are still difficulties with reapportionment and much dissatis-
faction with the new income tax. There is a debt of $114,000 from
1966 which is owed to Gingras their candidate for Covernor that year.
Connecticut is a state where we have a much better starting point for
1972 than we did in 1968, and the state GOP did well in 1970 inspite
of extremely adverse economic conditions. Brian Gaffney, the new
state GOP Chairman, is close to Governor Meskill and is pro-RN.
New York
Party leaders believe that the President has a good opportunity in
New York in 1972 but there are still many uncertainties. Several GOP
County Chairmen in such strategic areas as Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester,
Monroe and Rockland are strongly opposed to any cooperation with the
Conservative Party on a local basis and are insisting that there be
no joint electors for the GOP and Conservative Party in 1972. State
GOP officials reflect this same point of view. Senator Buckley seems
to be popular with both Republicans and Conservatives but GOP officials
take the view that sooner or later he must drop any official ties with
the Conservative Party if he wants to be regarded as a Republican.
The President may be hurt by this infighting between the Republicans
and Conservative Parties. While it is difficult to demonstrate that
the President would lose any votes if Republican electors did not
also run on the Conservative Party ticket, it is clear that the
President's showing will be weakened if the campaign in New York in
1972 is characterized by a bitter struggle at the state and local
level between Republican and Consorvative officials. For this reason,
it is recommended that a high priority be given towards resolving this
inter-party dispute. At least it must be clear to all concerned that
the individuals running the Nixon campaign in New York intend to work
in cooperation with all groups and individuals who support the Presi-
dent even though there may be differences with regard to candidates for
other office. A natural compromise might be to have the GOP agree to
- 8 -
New York (Cont'd)
a cooperative arrangement between Republicans and Conservatives in the
Presidential campaign in return for giving up efforts for joint electors.
New Jersey
Economic conditions are probably not much worse than the national
average but Newark is in an extremely difficult plight. In November,
1971 there will be critical elections for the State Legislature and
local office. The GOP organization is out of debt but reapportionment
questions remain unresolved. This is most unfortunate since the GOP
could gain substantially next year in the races for Congress if a
decision could be reached in the overwhelming Republican Legislature
and the Covernor. If reapportionment is put off until next year, the
new Legislature elected in November will make the decision and this
could be more difficult. Governor Cahill is doing a good job and can
be very helpful to the President's campaign next year.
At this time there is no logical choice for a Nixon chairman according
to John Dimon, the state GOP Chairman. New Jersey has a primary on
June 6 which must be given careful consideration since there is some
basis for McCloskey to get support. Senator Case will be running for
reelection and will have a broad based campaign. Every effort should
be made to get his cooperation and assistance in New Jersey on behalf
of the President. There is strong feeling against Vice President
Agnew in New Jersey and it is questionable whether he could campaign
effectively in the state at this time.
Pennsylvania
Economic conditions in Pennsylvania are not aggravated although there
seems to be genuine concern about the future. Governor Shapp is not
popular and is causing many internal party problems. His leadership
can be blamed for some of the economic problems facing Pennsylvania.
Cliff Jones plans to remain as state GOP Chairman. He seems to have
good relations with Senator Schweiker but he recognizes that both
Senator Scott and Schweiker must play a role in any Nixon campaign
in Pennsylvania.
The race for Mayor in Philadelphia this November could affect our
campaign next year. There is an outside chance that Thatcher Longstreth
might win over Riszo and this would be a great boost for the GOP in
Pennsylvania. High priority must be given by the President and the
Administration to develop a better political and personal rapport with
Billy Mechan the GOP leader in Philadelphia. This has been botched up
badly in the past and must be straig) tened out. The state COP is
carrying a debt of $300,000 currently and owes another $500,000.
The Democratic Party has been superseded by organized labor in many
parts of the state. Any personal attention which the President can
give to Ponncylvania in terms of a visit or identification would be
most holpful. There is no race for Covernor or Senate in Pennsylvania
- 9 -
Pennsylvania (Cont'd)
next year and the race for President will be critical for the GOP in
the state. Cliff Jones feels that Bill Scranton may be over used as
a campaign chairman and mentioned Arlen Spector as a person who might
be considered for a Nixon chairman. Elsie Hillman is SO violently
opposed to Vice President Agnew that she should not be considered for
any role at this stage.
Delaware
The President's standing is still fairly high in Delaware according
to Gene Bunting the state GOP Chairman. Governor Peterson and Senator
Boggs will be running for reelection next year and both will support
the President. Other Party leaders such as Senator Roth, former
Senator Williams and Wilmington Mayor Haskell should be included in
any discussion of a Nixon chairman. The Party finances are in good
shape and there seems to be no interest in McCloskey. John Rollins
will be heading up the GCP dinner on November 9 and can be of help in
Delaware.
Maryland
There is an opportunity to put together a much better organization for
the President in 1972 than we had in 1968. Economic conditions are
not good but Democratic leadership is somewhat divided. The GOP
still owes $100, 000 from 1968 but this is manageable. Senators
Beall and Mathias would be good co-chairmen for the Nixon campaign,
with a full-time campaign manager in charge. Secretary Rogers Morton
is extremely popular in Maryland and can provide a great deal of help.
Vice President Agnew's interest and involvement in Maryland is unknown
at the present time but this will be critical. Alexander Lankler,
the state GOP Chairman, is strongly pro-Nixon and caused the Maryland
State GOP Committee to become the first in the nation to endorse the
reelection of the President. The Maryland Presidential primary would
result in a strong showing for the President if all Party leaders
can be brought into the effort. We are still weak in the Baltimore
area, both county and city.
West Virginia
The President is relatively weak in West Virginia although he may make
a better showing next year than in 1963. Governor Moore has not
decided whether to run for reelection cr for the seat now held by
Senator Randolph. Governor Moore is quite popular at this time and
his control over the Party is firm. The state COP is out of debt and
doing well in building a staff for next year. The Nixon chairman must
be someone who can work closely with Arch Moore and it definitely
should not be former Covernor Cecil Underwood, a bitter opponent of
Arch Moore. State Chairman Tom Potter strongly recommends that Judge
John Field be named to the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals to replace
- 10 -
West Virginia (Cont'd)
retiring Judge Herbert Boreman and that John T. Copenhaver, Jr. be
named to replace Judge Field on the U.S. District Court. Jay Rockefeller
is the probably Democratic candidate for Governor and will be quite
strong. Randolph has not indicated whether he plans to run again for
the Senate seat.
District of Columbia
The President should make a strong race in the GOP primary based on
primary results in past elections. However, this could be a tricky
situation and every effort should be made to prevent any mishap. In
discussions with Bob Carter who represented State GOP Chairman Ned
Pendelton, he recommended that Perkins McGuire serve as Nixon chairman
in 1972. An alternate suggestion was Bill McManus who is a retired
official of the C.& P. Telephone Company and a member of the GOP State
Committee.
South
Virginia
Party officials at the Denver meeting were generally optimistic and
reported no particular voter enthusiasm for any of the leading Demo-
cratic candidates. I did not discuss organization matters with them
on the assumption that Harry Flemming will take care of this.
North Carolina
Both Ed Broyhill and Thelma Rogers were optimistic about the
President's chances in North Carolina next year. However, I did not
discuss organization matters with them since the state GOP Chairman,
Jim Holshouser, was not present. I would hope that we can get an
early start in putting together a strong organization for the Presi-
dent in North Carolina which can make an excellent showing in their
new primary.
South Carolina
Nothing new to report except that Senator Thurmond seems to be getting
off to a good start in his bid for reelection.
Georgia
Jean Forst represented Bob Shaw the new state GOP Chairman at the
Denver meetings. She strongly recommended Paul Jones as the Nixon
chairman for Coorgia. The COP in Ceorgia does have a great many
Internal difficulties involving key Party leaders, but all can be
expected to give strong support to the President next year. The COP
nominee for the Senate is still uncertain and David Gambrell who was
appointed to replace Senator Russell is gaining strength.
- 11 -
Florida
The President's strength in Florida still holds up well according to
Tommy Thomas the state GOP Chairman. The Democrats should be helped
in Florida by having their convention in Miami. Governor Askew is
expected to give strong support to the Democratic Presidential ticket
but his current popularity is not too good. Tom recommended that
Lawrence Lee of Jacksonville might make a good Nixon chairman or at
least a finance chairman.
Florida has a primary on March 14. It is important to get a strong
and broad based delegation. McCloskey has no particular strength in
Florida. Senator Gurney is working hard to improve his relations with
the GOP and is making progress. There are no races for Senate or
Governor. Reapportionment is unresolved at this point. Bill Cramer
is expected to run for Congress in 1972. The GOP decision to have
it's convention in San Diego instead of Miami might create a problem
but all Party leaders in Denver promised to do everything they could
to be of help in this regard.
Kentucky
Kentucky elects a new Governor this fall and no real decisions can
be made about the campaign for 1972 until after November. Governor
Louie Nunn will work hard to elect a Republican Governor but it looks
like an uphill fight at this point. Nunn is expected to run for
Senator Cooper's seat next year. The GOP problems in Louisville
remains unresolved and a lot of work needs to be done there. John
Kerr, the GOP State Chairman, reports no particular enthusiasm in
Kentucky for any of the Democratic Presidential hopefuls.
Kerr expressed the view that it was important to get Congressman
Snyder's support for Tom Emberton in his race for Governor. It may
be that Snyder wants to run for the Senate seat in 1972 and believes
that Emberton would give his support to Nunn if elected Governor.
Tennessee
Nixon's strength in Tennessee is still very strong. In a 3-way race
for President taken this month, the President had 46% to 31% for
Humphrey and 20,5 for Wallace (3% undecided). This compares with the
1968 percentage of Nixon 38%, Humphrey 28% and Wallace 34%. Economic
conditions are not too bad at this time in Tennessee but the school
bussing issue could be extremely serious if aggravated. So far no
Democratic candidate has any strong appeal in Tennessee.
Senator Baker is running for reelection and will be of help to
President Nixon. Governor Dunn and Senator Brock both are in a
position to help. Any Nixon chairman must be cleared by all of
these principals.
- 12 -
Alabama
Jim Martin confirms the local problems facing Wallace. It is going
to be important to get a good committee in Alabama as early as
possible which will create additional pressure on Wallace not to run
by helping to mobilize opposition at home. If Wallace does not run,
the President should be able to carry Alabama.
Mississippi
Clarke Reed reports that the President is leading in Mississippi in
all 3-way combinations but this is an extremely volatile situation.
If Wallace does not run, then Nixon should carry Mississippi with no
difficulty.
Arkansas
Charles Bernard is the new GOP State Chairman and a strong supporter
of the President. He is convinced that Nixon can carry Arkansas and
is giving this his top statewide priority. There will be no strong
opposition to Senator McClellan next year. Governor Bumpers is
probably going to get a second term with only token opposition by
the COP.
The recent statement by Vice President Agnew about black leadership
in America was harmful to Bernard's efforts to get support from black
leaders. Of course, if Congressman Mills is on the Democratic ticket,
that would guarantee him state support. President Nixon is more
popular in Arkansas now than in 1968 and Wallace has definitely slip-
ped in popularity. No pclls are available at this time for the
Presidential race in Arkansas.
Economic conditions are not too bad and the COP organization is out
of debt and has a budget of $80,000 for this year. It will be im-
portant to have a harmonious working relationship between the GOP
organization and former Governor Winthrop Rockefeller. In 1968,
Governor Rockefeller concentrated on his own campaign for reelection
and gave very little assistance to the national ticket. He could be
of great help in developing support for President Nixon among black
voters in Arkansas. Participation by blacks in the Arkansas GOP is
very wide spread and it is important to maintain and expand this base
of support.
Louisiana
Louisiana will elect a new Covernor on February 1, 1972. The GOP
candidate is David Treen of New Orleans who nearly defeated Hale Boggs
in two different Congressional campaigns. The Nixon campaign in
Louisiana will have to follow a "citizens" approach if it is to succeed
and Treen is following this strategy. Treen's organization would
provide a good base on which to build the President's campaign in
Louisiana since it will be broadly based and include many Democrats.
- 13 -
Louisiana (Cont'd)
Charlton Lyons is finance chairman for David Treen. Economic
conditions are not too good and the HEW activities have been disas-
trous. The key factor is whether Wallace is a candidate again. His
strength is less now than in 1968 but it could grow if he can take
advantage of certain issues.
Texas
GOP internal problems are much improved and the President has a strong
chance to carry Texas in 1972. Economic conditions are somewhat
adverse and the HEW activities have been extremely damaging to the
President and Administration. A major effort will be made to reelect
Senator Tower who stands a good chance since Lt. Governor Ben Barnes
will be running for Covernor. I did not discuss details of Nixon
organization with any Texas COP officials in Denver.
Midwest
Ohio
After the setback suffered in 1970, the GOP is regaining its morale
and this is extremely important. They have recently held eight fund-
raising dinners attended by over 5,500 people which is an increase
over last year. The Party is now out of debt although Roger Cloud
still owes $30,000 from his race for Governor. Governor Gilligan's
popularity is not good at this point stemming from tax and fiscal
problems. Gilligan is building a strong Democratic organization
working with union officials.
Bob Taft's announcement as a favorite son surprised people in Ohio as
well as in Washington but it has been accepted. On reapportionment,
the COP sponsored bill will be enacted but vetoed by. Cilligan. It
will then be decided by the courts. The result could turn on whether
it goes to the State court or the Federal court. It is clear that
Chio will be a major battle ground in 1972 and every effort must be
made to carry this state.
There are no major statewide races in 1972 except for President and
an early start should be made in putting together the strongest
possible organization on behalf of Nixon in Ohio. This will require
cooperation from the Administration as well as with elected and Party
officials in Ohio. Economic conditions remain as a major difficulty
but it now seems that Party people in Ohio believe that the job can
be done if everyone works together.
Indiana
I did not discuss the details of a Nixon campaign organization with
Indiana COP officials in Denver. The incumbent administration of
- 14 -
Indiana (Cont'd)
Covernor Whitcomb is not popular with the voters or a large segment
of the COP. The internal Party problems remain unresolved but this
should not prevent a unified campaign for President Nixon. Economic
conditions are adverse in many parts of the state. The race for
Covernor could be of extreme importance and it is necessary to get
a unified base of Party support behind a strong candidate for Governor.
There will be a Presidential primary campaign where McCloskey should not
run well but where GOP efforts might fail because of internal problems.
Major emphasis in Indiana will be centered on the various local races
this November. After these are out of the way, it will be important
to start work immediately on the President's campaign throughout the
state.
Michigan
Economic conditions in the state are very bad with unemployment up to
16% in Detroit. HUD is most unpopular in the suburbs where the GOP
has to get its major support. There will have to be close coordina-
tion between the campaign for Nixon and with Senator Griffin who will
be running for reelection in a tough race. Any visits by the Presi-
dent before the election would be a big help. The Party has a debt of
some $800, 000 from 1968 and 1970 and is operating on the basis of a
skeleton organization.
A critical problem which must be resolved soon is the relationship
of the conservative element of the Party led by State Senator Huber
and the Republican State Administration of Covernor Milliken. If
Huber sets up a formal 3rd party it could endanger both Griffin and
the President. Somebody should have a pointed conversation with
Covernor Milliken in order to get his cooperation in resolving this
problem as soon as possible.
A good Nixon chairman for Michigan might be Lt. Governor Brickley.
He is a former prosecutor from Wayne County and is a progressive
Republican. The Nixon campaign in Michigan will be uphill but it
should be as strong as possible if only to help Senator Griffin, the
State Legislature and COP Congressional candidates. Governor Milliken
has reiterated his willingness to be of assistance to the President in
every way possible and he should be encouraged to become actively in-
volved in Michigan and elsewhere.
!llinois
This is an extremely critical state for the President in 1972. Senator
Percy and Attorney General Scott both seem to be assured of reelection
next year. Governor Ogilvie is recovering his standing with the voters
and plans to run a tough and well financed campaign. There is general
agreement by all principals on Tom Houser as the man to run the Presi-
dent's campaign in Illinois once he leaves the FCC on October 1.
- 15 -
Illinois (Cont'd)
Economic conditions and inflation are major difficulties for the
President in Illinois. Governor Ogilvie and State Chairman Vic Smith
both urge the President to visit Illinois, particularly Downstate, as
much as possible during the balance of this year and next.
A Muskie/Stevenson ticket would create serious problems for President
Nixon in Illinois and efforts must be taken to develop support for
the President with ethnic voters. It would be hoped that Senator
Percy could help increase support for the President among minority
voters.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin may be the most difficult of the midwest states for the
President to repeat his victory of 1968. Much of the GOP Party
organization is new and this might be an advantage. John Hough, the
GOP State Chairman seemed quite pleased with the selection of John
MacIver and Bob Knowles as temporary chairmen for Nixon. Because of
the importance of the Wisconsin primary and the absence of major state-
wide races, it will be important to start the President's campaign as
soon as possible.
The Party is seriously in debt ($800,000) but this must not hamper
efforts for the President. Ody Fish, who is now National Committeeman,
would like to play an active part where he can.
Minnesota
The GOP in Minnesota is digging out from under a Democratic landslide
in 1970. The new State GOP Chairman, David Krogseng, was a former
aide of Clark MacGregor and is a strong supporter of President Nixon.
The GOP will have difficulty getting a strong candidate against Senator
Mondale next year. The GOP is carrying a debt of some $170,000 of
which $60,000 is to be paid next year. Congressman McCloskey has been
in the state and has some kind of a following. This will require a
strong organization effort by the Nixon forces from the precincts on
up to the district and state conventions where delegates are chosen.
Of course, if Humphrey is the Democratic nominee for President, we
would face the same problems of 1968. Without Humphrey or Mondale on
the Democratic ticket, the GOP in Minnesota hopes to make a strong
comeback in 1972. The new Democratic Governor, Wendell Anderson, has
not been particularly popular although he is an attractive leader.
South Dakota
The COP in South Dakota was nearly wiped out in 1970. Next year it
must find candidates for U.S. Senate (Mundt), Covernor and other
statewide offices, and two Congressional candidates. The Party has
been reorganized with Bob Burns as the new State Chairman. Jack Gibson
has been trying to put together a group of candidates for the key races.
- 16 -
South Dakota (Cont'd)
There is agreement between Gibson and Burns that the Nixon campaign
in South Dakota should be run under the co-chairmanship of former
Congressman Berry and Reifel with "Obie" O'Brien of Madison as the
campaign manager. Farm discontent is aggravated in South Dakota with
additional problems from the ICC ruling on minors driving farm vehicles
across state lines and the enforcement by Secretary Volpe of the high-
way program penalties for failure to remove billboards.
North Dakota
Agricultural problems still are the key issue. Both Ben Clayburgh,
COP National Committeeman, and Jack Huss, COP State Chairman, strongly
urge the President to appear before a farm group and deal specifically
with agricultural issues. They were particularly concerned that any
White House staff member speaking for agriculture be someone who can
be identified as a "real farmer. This definitely should not be
somebody from the area of "Agro-business."
In both North Dakota and South Dakota the Democrats are effectively
attacking the President for a "do nothing" policy on the economy.
Senator Milton Young could be the most helpful to the President in
North Dakota but he is quite unhappy over Administration farm policy
and leadership.
Missouri
Economic conditions are probably not as bad in Missouri as in other
states. Missouri must elect a new Governor next year and the
Democrats will have at least a 6-way primary fight. In the GOP,
State Representative Buzz King has announced for Governor, but the
likely COP nominee will be State Auditor Kit Bond who won by a smashing
plurality of 200, votes in 1970. It will be important to keep a
close tab on the selection of delegates in Missouri. The state GOP
is out of debt. The reapportionment issues are still open. Both
Gene Taylor, National Committeeman, and Nick Gray, State GOP Chairman,
strongly recommend that Larry Roos, St. Louis County Executive, be
the Nixon chairman for Missouri. Attorney General Jack Danforth will
be running for reelection. GOP Congressman Hall will probably not
run for reclection and it will be important to get a good candidate
there with a minimum of Party struggle.
Iowa
Farm issues are paramount in Iowa although the general economy is
fairly good. The President's image on farm issues is one of aloofness
but the foreign policy issues are still Important in Iowa. Governor
Ray plans to run for reelection but faces a bitter primary fight from
Lt. Covernor Roger Gebson. This will have an adverse impact on GOP
fund-raising in Iowa and might lead to a Democratic Governor. Demo-
cratic Congressman John Culver is expected to run against Senator
Jack Millor. This could be a close race.
- 17 -
Iowa (Cont'd)
State Chairman John McDonald recommended consideration of Ray Murphy,
Tom Stoner or Poll Brinton as Nixon Chairman for Iowa with Dick
Bergland and Sue Reed as possibilities for campaign managers.
Nebraska
The new State Chairman, Milan Bush, stressed both farming issues and
the problems of rural areas. Secretary Hardin is handicapped in his
efforts for the Administration even though he is from Nebraska. Bush
seemed to have no particular objection to the choice of George Cook
as Nixon chairman in Nebraska next year.
It is recognized that every effort must be given to Senator Curtis in
his reelection effort next year. The Nebraska primary can be turned
into a strong plus for the President and there seems to be little
support for McCloskey.
Kansas
Economic conditions in Kansas are still difficult for the GOP. The
Democratic Covernor, following the lead of Senator McGovern and other
midwest Democrats, maintains a steady barrage of criticism about the
President and Administration economic policies. The race for Governor
next year is open with Bob Wells, now on the FCC, as a good GOP
possibility. Covernor Darking has not yet indicated whether he will
run against Senator Jim Pearson next year. There are several possi-
bilities for Nixon chairman, but no firm recommendation as yet from
Bill Falstad, the new State Chairman.
Oklahoma
The President is still popular in Oklahoma in spite of economic
problems. None of the major Democratic candidates seems to have any
particular strength. The new Democratic Covernor, David Hall, will
be working hard against President Nixon and is a strong partisan
Democrat. The race for Senate could be quite tough cince Oklahoma
voters might not really want to have two GOP Senators (like the Bush
situation in Texas in 1970).
Congressman Edmondson will make a strong Sonate candidate for the
Democrate. There is a definite split in GOP leaders with State Chair-
man Clarence Warner reflecting a different position from the Bellmon
group. Doug McKeever of Inid is recommended by Dorothy Stanislaus
as Nixon chairman. The GOP Senate possibilities include former
Covermor Dewey Bartlett (the favorite), astronaut Tom Stafford, and
Bud Stewart. Bartlett hopes to develop enough strength to avoid
an open fight.
- 18 -
West
Alaska
The Nixon Administration is not popular in Alaska at the present time.
The Alacka pipeline is the key issue and a decision is expected this
fall. It is most important that this announcement should be made by
Secretary Morton and Senator Stevens in Fairbanks and not let the
announcement come from Covernor Egan or Senator Gravel. The State
Chairman for Alaska, Al Bramstedt, was active in the 1968 campaign for
Nixon. He reports that COP morale with regard to the President's
campaign is not good. State Senator Jack Coghill is a possible Nixon
chairman. Former Secretary Hickel may run an independent slate of
delegates. Hickel is quite frustrated and is spending a great deal
of time in Alaska. At this point, Senator Stevens faces an uphill
fight unless the pipeline issue is settled the right way. The state
GOP has no debt and is trying to develop programs to reach the new
people coming in because of the oil industry and the native population.
A real help would be if the Jones Act could be changed to permit
foreign vessels to carry cargo from the mainland to Alaska. Unemploy-
ment is now at 13%. The shipping strike has been a disaster and will
cause even more damage in the long run as business concerns are unable
to reopen.
Hawaii
Hawaii has a woman as their new State Chairman. Carla Coray said
the state organization is out of debt but there are many organizational
problems. Bill Quinn, now President of the Dole Corporation, might
be a good Nixon chairman. John Bellinger, a Honolulu banker, is also
a possibility. The shipping strike is most serious and must be ended
soon. Mbdification of the Jones Act and the release of Federal land
would be of greatest benefit to the President's campaign in Hawaii.
California
Put Livermore, the COP State Chairman, is doing a first rate job
in trying to keep everything together. The economy is the key issue
in California. Put has been concentrating his effort on reapportion-
ment. He stressed that the 1972 delegation should be broadly based
and selected on the basis of helping the President carry California
in November. The President's proposed trip to China has done a lot to
weaken McCloskey's position in California.
Oregon
There was approval by GOP officials in Denver of the choice of
Congressman Wendall Wyatt as Nixon chairman for Oregon. Currently
the Party faces a bitter fight between Governor McCall and Senator
Hatfield for the Senate nomination next year. Covernor McCall plans
to make support for the President a major issue between himself and
- 19 -
Oregon (Cont'd)
Senator Hatfield and his activities at the Western Governors Con-
ference in Jackson reflected this strategy. If Governor McCall is
elected to the Senate, Oregon would have a Democrat as Governor since
the State Senate President would move up to that spot. The new GOP
State Chairman, Fank Hart, expects Senator Hatfield to do much better
in a primary contest against Governor McCall than the polls now
indicate. McCloskey would have some support in his campaign against
the President in Oregon.
Washington
Senator Jackson's strength is very strong at the present time. Economic
conditions are quite bad and help the Democrats. Governor Evans has
not decided whether he will run for a third term. State Chairman Earl
Davenport strongly urged a visit by the President to Washington State.
Davenport suggested Luke Williams as the Nixon chairman. Williams is
a conservative from Spokane who has good relations with Governor Evans.
Joel Pritchard of Seattle might also be a good Nixon chairman provided
he does not make another primary fight against Congressman Pelly. The
state GOP is out of debt and expects to pick up the 4th Congressional
District lost by Catherine May in 1970. The GOP candidate will be
Stewart Bledsoe who is a Republican leader in the State Legislature.
Arizona
The President is still quite popular in Arizona and economic con-
ditions are not particularly had. The GOP finances are in good shape.
Reapportionment has a key priority with Arizona GOP which hopes to
pick up the new House seat. Harry Rosensweig, GOP State Chairman,
recommends Jim O'Connor as Nixon chairman. O'Connor is a friend of
Herb Kalmbach and is a Democrat who supports the President.
New Mexico
The state has serious economic problems. Senator Montoya is quite
popular with Spanish-American voters and is strongly anti-GOP. The
state GOP is only $6,000 in debt but extensive fund-raising is dif-
ficult in New Mexico. Tom McMenna will soon replace Eob Davidson
as GOP State Chairman. Davidson recommends former Lt. Governor Bohack
as a possibility for Nixon chairman.
Both parties are expecting primary contests for Senator Anderson's
seat. If Anderson runs again it could change that situation. Senator
Jackson is quite strong in New Mexico since his wife is from there
and worked for Senator Anderson.
Nevada
None of the National Democrats are very popular in Nevada and the
President should have a good chance to carry the state in 1972
according to George Abbott, the State COP Chairman. Senator Jackson
- 20 -
Nevada (Cont'd)
would be the strongest Democratic nominee in Nevada. Abbott recommends
Bob Wordman, a banker from Las Vegas, as Nixon chairman. He also had
high praice for Attorney General Bob List. Former Covernor Paul
Laxalt has received some criticism since the 1970 election and would
not be the best man to head up the Nixon campaign. The state GOP is
$30,000 in debt mostly from the Senate race in 1970. There are no
races for Covernor or Senate in Nevada next year.
Colorado
Nixon's popularity is still very good in Colorado and the GOP is well
organized. Congressman Evans is the likely candidate against Senator
Allott. The GOP is out of debt. Bill Armstrong, the Nixon chairman
in 1968, may be a Congressional candidate next year. Reapportionment
problems are still not yet settled. Covernor Love might be the
strongest man to head up the campaign for President Nixon in Colorado
in 1972. The Governor is quite popular with all groups at this point.
Wyoming
The President is still strong in Wyoming although there are some
economic difficulties in the state. Senator Hansen should win his
campaign for reelection. The GOP still is unsettled on its candidate
for Congressman-at-Large. There is no race for Governor. The new
State GOP Chairman, David Kennedy, is close to Covernor Hathaway and
there seem to be no internal Party problems of significance.
Utah
Economic conditions are still causing problems and inflation hurts
the GOP. The recent copper strikes have been extremely serious in
Utah. The new state GOP Chairman is Kent Shearer, who was Utah
chairman for Reagan in 1968. Ken Garff, the National Committeeman,
thinks that the President can carry Utah again but that it will re-
quire a strong campaign effort. Governor Rampton has not indicated
whether he will seek reelection. The GOP candidate for Governor is
uncertain although it is most important that they obtain a strong
person to run for this office.
Montana
The new GOP State Chairman, Bill Holter, from Great Falls, is a
political amateur and very inexperienced. He seems to be well motivated
and determined to spend a lot of time and effort in building an organ-
ization. Economic conditions are critical in Montana. The Democratic
Governor, Forrest Anderson, will be working for the national ticket and
Senator Mansfield may be of some help. Senator Jackson would have
strong support. The GOP is out of debt and building an organization.
There is no likely GOP nominee against Senator Metcalf next year.
- 21 -
Montana (Cont'd)
Holter expects a lot of good impact from the President's visit to
Glacier National Park next month. Bill Holter suggested Frank Whetstone
of Cut Bank as Nixon chairman for Montana, but he will look for addi-
tional prospects.
Idaho
The President should carry Idaho next year but with a reduced plurality.
The Democrats, under Governor Andrus, are concentrating their efforts
next year almost exclusively on the State Legislature. This means
that they will not do much to help the national ticket. Roland Wilber,
GOP State Chairman, suggests that Jack Murphy may be the best man to
head up the Nixon campaign with Bill Campbell helping on organization.
Senator Jordan seems to be in good shape for reelection. Wilber did
express the view that Secretary Connally would not be a good choice
for Vice President insofar as Idaho was concerned.