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From Tony to Dent RE: Analysis of media to predict elections. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 10/22/1970
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WHSF: Contested, 5-44
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WHSF: Contested, 5-44
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This file contains:
From Tony to Dent RE: Analysis of media to predict elections. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 10/22/1970
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
5
44
10/22/1970
Campaign
Letter
From Tony to Dent RE: Analysis of media to
predict elections. 1 pg.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Page 1 of 1
DOCUMENT WITHDRAWAL RECORD [NIXON PROJECT]
DOCUMENT
DOCUMENT
SUBJECT/TITLE OR CORRESPONDENTS
DATE
RESTRICTION
NUMBER
TYPE
N-1
Letter
Tony to Harry re! [Review
10/22/70
AM
[doc. 266]
of attached polls ] 'p.
C-
(Nixon)
FILE GROUP TITLE
BOX NUMBER
WHSF SMOF Dent
8
FOLDER TITLE
1970 National Media Analysis [1062]
RESTRICTION CODES
A. Release would violate a Federal statute or Agency Policy.
E. Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
B. National security classified information.
financial information.
C. Pending or approved claim that release would violate an individual's
F. Release would disclose investigatory information compiled for law
rights.
enforcement purposes.
D. Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of privacy
G. Withdrawn and return private and personal material.
or a libel of a living person.
H. Withdrawn and returned non-historical material.
NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS ADMINISTRATION
NA FORM 1421 (4-85)
Presidential Materials Review Board
Review on Contested Documents
Collection: Harry S. Dent
Box Number:
8
Folder:
1970 Media Analysis [1 of 2]
Document
Disposition
266
Return Private/Political
October 22, 1970
Dear Harry,
After a very brief review, and I apologize for not
having the time to analyze the attached polls more care-
fully, I would offer the following comments:
Based upon the material you gave me, there is no sub-
stantive evidence that an analysis of media can be used
to predict the outcome of elections. I do not discount
the possibility since the communication media has such a
profound influence on voting patterns. Much, however,
would depend upon an objective selection of the media and
then the proper weighing of the various elements - lineage,
placement, frequency, etc.
I would also have to question the use of the written
word as against weighing in TV and radio coverage. If,
in fact, there is a correlation between press coverage
in the broad sense and status of candidates nowadays,
I would assume that the analysis must include TV at least
and preferably radio as well. Certainly the extensive funds
being used in TV would in itself produce a reaction relative
to the candidates. Perhaps the newspaper coverage parallels
the TV coverage, but I doubt it.
It appears to have considerable merit relative to an
understanding of what are the issues that are being
covered. This would help in planning a candidate's
campaign.
Along the same line it would help to evaulate how effec-
tive the candidate has been relative to his speeches, press
conferences, and other activities during the course of the
campaign.
In brief, it has value concerning an evaluation of the
issues and the candidate's effectiveness. Its actual value
as a useful tool for prognostication is questionable (I
would be careful also since the individuals performing
this analysis can adjust their elements to reflect other
information they receive, such as polls, so that they
might prove themselves correct.)
Tony