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Enumerating the "Shape of Wisconsin" at the opening of 1972. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
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Enumerating the "Shape of Wisconsin" at the opening of 1972. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
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7
31
>
Campaign
Report
Report enumerating the "Shape of
Wisconsin" at the opening of 1972. 5 pgs.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Page 1 of 1
10 January 1972
SHAPE OF WISCONSIN
As '72 begins, Wisconsin with 11 electoral votes appears
a drab prospect for the President. In '68, it went for Nixon with
less than 50 percent of the vote (RN 47.9, HHH 44.3, Wallace
7.6). The dreary outlook results from three situations.
One, the economy--especially in the major population
areas--is depressed and likely to lag behind the rest of the Nation
in recovery.
Two, the state GOP is heavily in debt, fractionated and
weakly led.
Three, the RN reelection effort is, at present, inactive
and led by individuals who are "track sore."
1. The Economy. Milwaukee's economy is largely
dependent on manufacturing of heavy machinery. This industry is
depressed at present and likely to be slow in recovery due to pre-
sent excess capacity across the Nation. The Kenosha area is
substantially influenced by the major American Motors manufactu-
ring plant located there. While auto sales are up, American Motors
does not seem to be sharing in the lushness. The Fox River Valley
is heavily dependent on paper mills which are and will continue to be
hit hard by pollution control requirements. All in all, it is difficult
to see how a prevading feeling of warm, brisk growth can be expected
by the fall.
2. The GOP. It should be recalled that 1970 was a blowout
for the state GOP. After six years of Republican leadership under
Warren Knowles, the Party lost the bid for the first four year
gubernatorial term to a shrewd Democrat, Patrick J. Lucy. It also
lost, as expected, the bid to unseat William Proxmire from the U.S.
Senate. The only state-wide seat of any political importance won in
1970 what that of Attorney General. The able Robert Warren was re-
elected. A one-seat majority in the 100-man State Assembly was
reduced to a minority position of approximately 30. The State Senate
with staggered terms remained in Republican control. In sum, the
-2-
Party came out of 1970 holding the Attorney General's office
and control of one House of the State Legislature. It also ended
in heavy debt--approximately $600,000, which since then has
been reduced by only $100, 000. The $500,000 net debt is equal
to the amount usually raised for a gubernatorial race.
Just after the 1970 elections, the State Chairman and, I
believe, six of the 10 Congressional District Chairmen resigned
for individual reasons. Since that time, the State Party has
occupied itself with task forces on revitalization which have come
to nothing but fights and one debilitating battle (conservatives ver--
sus moderates) over the seat of State Vice Chairwoman. The
conservatives won. The present Chairman is John Hoff, formerly
State Party Treasurer, who is nice but apparently not strong. In
short, the Party is stewing around on a number of issues which are
tending to sap its already weak strength. Field staff has been cut
due to money problems, and there doesn't appear to be much in the
way of state led organization efforts.
3. The President's Campaign. In November of last year,
the appointment of John McIver, a Milwaukee attorney, was an-
nounced to spearhead the President's campaign in Wisconsin.
McIver was more or less dragged into this job. His reluctance was
understandable. He has been deeply involved in, if not directed,
state-wide campaigns every two years since 1964. His last effort
was to direct the unsuccessful 1970 gubernatorial campaign of Lt.
Governor Jack Olson. Before he began that campaign, and certainly
afterwards, he let it be known that this would be his last effort. Yet
here he is again. There is a committee mostly composed of simi-
larly "track sore" individuals. Conversation with a number of
sources yields no evidence that contact has been made by McIver and
his committee with the county organizations. In fact, conversation
indicates no activity whatever on the part of McIver and his committee.
Ody J. Fish, former State Chairman and now National Committeeman,
is reported to attribute this to lack of guidance from Washington and
to lay some of the blame on Harry Fleming who he believes to be
abrupt, abrasive and non-directive.
-3-
The Committee to Reelect the President, through its
youth group headed by Ken Reetz, has identified a John Proctor
to be the youth coordinator for the state. He is a State Committee
field man, about 28 years old, and reputed to be competent. His
announcement has not yet been made.
So passive have been McIver and company that there are
even rumors among some Republicans to the effect that the Nixon
Campaign has written off Wisconsin.
4. The Primary. Scheduled for April 4, the event is likely
to see the greatest action on the Democrat side. Wisconsin has no
partisan registration, and cross-over voting is easy. The outcome
of the primary is binding on the delegation. The procedure is in-
teresting and works as follows: A statutory committee convenes to
slate those individuals who are generally recognized as contenders
for the nomination. To the best of my recollection, the committee
is composed of the chairman of the two parties, some others equally
balanced and chaired by the Chief Justice of the State Supreme
Court. Once the contenders have been slated for both parties, each
individual has an opportunity to officially withdraw by filing an affi-
davit of non-candidacy. The primary is held. Thereafter, the
state party proposes a list of delegates who will go to the Convention
bound to the primary winner. The list of delegates is subject to veto
by the winning candidate.
Although most of the action will be on the Democrat side with
a geometrically increasing number of candidates, there may be some
small stir on the Republican side if McCloskey and Ashbrook are
slated, which is probable. For Ashbrook, there is a lot of very con-
servative blood in Wisconsin, particularly in the Fox River Valley
and the North Shore of Milwaukee. However, Ashbrook's candidacy
may yield more money than votes. Close observers can see no
organizational activity for either McCloskey or Ashbrook as of this
time.
One critical point which could help the President's effort is
the drawing up of delegates after the primary. These delicate posi-
-4-
tions can either be inclusive of some hard workers who will
follow through in November or a roster of the "track sore."
The former is preferable; the latter is the course of least
resistance.
5. The Democrats-- A Lot of Activity.
Muskie. By far and away, the most organized, with
leadership comprised of many long-time Democrat pros. The
campaign is chaired by David Carley, a millionaire Turn-key
contractor and Political Science PhD who has run for Governor
a couple of times himself and is closely associated with Gaylord
Nelson. He is assisted by James Wimmer, a former State Demo-
cratic Chairman. Others in the campaign are key aides to Governor
Patrick J. Lucy. Lucy will remain Independent, though his people
are behind Muskie. Most of the candidates on the Democratic side
have gone to State Legislators to head up their campaign or embrace
it. Muskie has done the best job. Thirty Legislators, many of
them formerly for Bayh, have signed up for Muskie. In addition,
Muskie counts among his supporters Congressmen Reuss and Obey.
Also supporting him is Don Peterson, the Eau Claire pizza manu-
facturer, who headed the Wisconsin Delegation to the 1968 Demo-
cratic Convention and led the march for McCarthy.
Humphrey. Though not yet announced, he is expected to
obtain substantial support from the labor movement in Milwaukee,
Racine and Kenosha and rural areas in the northwest portion of the
state. There are no identified leaders of his campaign at this point.
Lindsay. His day after announcement tour of the state,
won great and favorable publicity. McGovern's organization, for
what is was, seems to be eroding in favor of Lindsay. Surprisingly,
the Mayor, at first blush, shows some signs of being the personality
with that needed spark. Maybe it's just Gerry Bruno, but the Mayor
does seem to have caught on a bit. Lindsay is certainly way ahead of
the three super libs. McGovern trying to be organized but making
little headway; and McCarthy approaching the Stasson level of support.
-5-
On the other side, Jackson is getting nowhere and has
little hope save the possibility of a strong GOP cross-over.
All in all, the primary promises to be dull on the Republican
side unless Ashbrook or McCloskey pick up steam suddenly. There
will be a large GOP cross-over to the scene of battle on the Demo-
cratic side. Some estimate a 75,000 vote cross-over. Notwith-
standing what is inherently an unexciting situation on the Republican
side, the President's effort--which is and should be targetted toward
November is still behind the starting line and working in a tough
environment.